# .Modeling in GIS

12 April 2005

Begin working on Building A Groundwater Protection Model

Types of models
A model may be a representation of data (e.g. a DEM) A conceptual model is an idea of how something functions (often described with a flow chart) Rule-based modeling uses rules and numerical thresholds to interpret information represented in multiple data themes

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More types of models Mathematical modeling involves use of equations that may be implemented within GIS or linked to GIS Statistical mathematical models are based on empirical observations and contain one or more random variables Deterministic mathematical models do not contain any random variables Environmental simulation models are mathematical models that represent environmental processes .

GIS are used to derive input variables required by a simulation model .Even more models Cartographic modeling involves GIS analysis of spatial data with Boolean or mathematical operations Statistical GIS modeling involves developing relationships between GIS-derived environmental characteristics (independent variables) and measures of ecological function (dependent variables) In coupled GIS/simulation modeling.

Cartographic modeling example .

g. roads. etc. . Gopher Tortoise. California Condor. Golden-cheeked Warblers. White-tailed Deer. etc. Wood Storks. can be combined to predict a species distribution Has been used on Wild Turkeys. maps of vegetation.Cartographic modeling Cartographic modeling is often used to identify suitable habitats for organisms from environmental variables E. food.

) Slope length (S) 5.) Inherent soil erodibility (K) 3.) Cover & management factor (C) 6.Cartographic modeling continued It is also possible to combine the variables in a mathematical model where each data layer represents a separate variable For example. it is possible to compute soil loss bass on six variables: 1.) Slope percentage (L) 4.) Rainfall erosion index (R) 2.) Conservation practice factor (P) A = RKLSCP A similar approach has been used to model non-point source pollution .

Rule-based modeling Expert systems are computer systems that help solve problems that would normally require a human expert s interpretation Expert systems can be linked with a GIS and thus made spatially explicit Expert systems utilize three types of rules .

) Heuristic rules to evaluate the knowledge of experts .) Map rules to evaluate mapped categorical variables 3.Three types of rules for rulebased modeling 1.) Database rule to evaluate numerical information 2.

a GIS learns relationships between datasets in the geographic database.Inductive-spatial modeling In inductive-spatial modeling. developing rules based on the analysis of the input data This is a form of rule-based modeling This approach has been used to model habitat suitability for Red Deer in Scotland .

Spatial Decision Support System SDSS is a type of rule-based modeling A SDSS adds the ability to recommend management solutions to environmental problems It can also help evaluate the consequences of various management scenarios. aiding in decision-making .

SDSS example .

GIS can be used to: Assemble spatial data on landscape properties Derive new data that are syntheses of the originals Statistically analyze the new data to determine the strength of the interactions .Statistical modeling If the relationships needed for development of a model are not known.

Statistical modeling example .

Avoiding spatial bias in statistical modeling How do you minimize autocorrelation? Random sample selection Choosing sample points that are regularly spaced (at a distance that meets an acceptable level of spatial autocorrelation) .

biomass.g.g.) Independent variables are derived from a digital database containing continuous data (e.Statistical models for continuous data In GIS-univariate statistical modeling what are dependent variables and what are independent variables? Dependent variables are typically field measurements (e. richness. etc. elevation) . diversity.

Example of a univariate model .

Examples of statistical models Regression analysis to relate vegetation alteration by beaver dams to beaver colony density ANCOVA to compare expansion rates of oak wilt fungus in urban vs. rural areas in TX Stepwise multiple regression to relate the % of trees / cell damaged by spruce budworm to physical and vegetative site characteristics represented by a number of GIS data layers .

Statistical models for categorical data Categorical data requires a different analysis than continuous data Expected vs. observed outcomes Bayesian statistics .

observed outcomes Most rely on a chi-square ( 2) analysis For example: Young et al.Expected vs. (1989) used 2 analysis to examine habitat preferences of grizzly bears . (1987) used 2 analysis to demonstrate that Northern Spotted Owls used oldgrowth more often than would be expected based on its percentage of the landscape Agee et al.

it is also possible to utilize logistic regression Logistic regression compares the attributes of the locations where the phenomenon is present with those of the location where the phenomenon is absent Pereira and Itami (1991) used logistic multiple regression to model the potential effects of a proposed observatory on the Mount Graham Red Squirrel . observed outcomes2 In addition to 2 analysis.Expected vs.

arizona.edu/graham/envir.as.html .Mt Graham Red Squirrel From http://medusa.

Squirrel numbers .

the a priori probability of a state. given certain conditions .Bayesian Statistics Bayesian statistics provide a framework for combining relative values of being right or wrong (subjective probabilities) with the probabilities of being right of wrong (conditional probabilities) Relies upon state-conditional probability density functions. and the a posteri probability of each state.

) Often used as an iterative process to simulate responses to new environmental conditions or to produce new maps of predicted ecosystem properties along spatial gradients . succession.g. nutrient cycling. NDVI. etc.GIS coupled with mathematical models GIS is most successful when coupled with models that predict outcomes of processes (e.

) Hypotheses are formulated on how behavior of organisms or ecosystems depends on their spatial relation with systems & environment 2. or proximity of variables identified with the GIS can be input into the computer models to examine the hypothesized consequences of spatial relations .Process 1. coincidence.) Spatial distribution.) Combinations of environmental variables are identified 3.

immigration. interaction/competition with other species. death rate. Including spatial data (as an extrinsic factor) often produces more useful models . etc.Population simulation models Population growth depends upon both intrinsic and extrinsic factors Intrinsic factors: birth rate. emigration Extrinsic factors: Physical environment.

Ecosystem and landscape simulation models Ecosystem and landscape simulation models attempt to duplicate ecological function via coupled differential equations that describe key ecosystem and landscape processes For example. heat sums.g. growth. temperature extremes. and death of individual trees based on deterministic. JABOWA and FORET forest models simulate the birth. soil moisture) . shading.g. crowding) and stochastic environmental variables (e. intrinsic stand variables (e.

Ecosystem and landscape simulation models continued These models can be linked to a GIS in two ways 1.) Data from a GIS can be extracted and used to run a model 2.) The results of the model can be displayed in GIS .

g. fire and weather events) In order to account for these things. they all have difficulty incorporating stochastic elements (e. few spatially dynamic models have been linked to a GIS. you need a Monte Carlo simulation To date.Spatially dynamic ecosystem models Although many of the models described previously work fairly well. primarily due to the computational requirements .

Time for scientific paper discussion .

France Read Campbell CH 16 . abstracts will be sent to Scientific Sewanee coordinator Read (and be prepared to discuss) Using Atlas Data to Model the Distribution of Woodpecker Species in the Jura.For next Thursday Abstracts due in class Will review them before lab During lab.

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