Pre-Budget Consultation 2011-2012

Fiscal Challenge

• New Brunswick facing monumental fiscal challenge • Unprecedented deficits and increases in net debt projected • Financial circumstances not sustainable • Immediate action required

Options to Meet the Fiscal Challenge
• Reduce spending on government programs / services • Reduce capital spending • Increase revenues (e.g. taxes, fees, licences, royalties) to pay for services • Evaluate the sale of government assets •

Where the Money Comes From 2010-2011 Budget

Federal Transfers 41%

Own-source Revenues 2010-2011 Budget
HST 23.6% PIT 27.7%

CIT 4.4%

Prov. Property Tax 9.8% Other 21.0% Return on Investment 8.1% Sinking Fund Earnings 5.4%

Surplus / (Deficit) ($millions)

Youth Population (0-19 years) Declining

K-12 Enrolment and School District Operations Funding, 1991 to 2009

Population by County % Change 2000-2009

Restigouche
-12.9%

Madawaska
-8.0%

Gloucester
-9.2%

Victoria
-9.7%

Northumberland
-8.3%

N.B. -0.1%
Significant Gain (5% to 12%) Minimal Gain (1% to 4%) Minimal Loss (-4% to -2%) Significant Loss (-13% to -6%)

Kent Carleton
-2.9%

-2.2%

Westmorland
Su ry nbu

York
+8.4%

-6.7% +5.1%

+11.5%

Qu ee ns

Albert
+3.9%

+1.5%

Charlotte
-4.0%

Kings t ain -2.3% S n Joh

Source: Statistics Canada and N.B. Finance

Change in New Brunswick Population by Age - Working Age and Senior
Age Group 15 to 64 65 and over Ratio 2010 518,900 119,600 4.3 to 1 2020 487,400 170,800 2.9 to 1 Difference -31,500 +51,200

Number of Immigrants – Actual and Projected
New Brunswick Manitoba

Source: Population Growth Secretariat

New Brunswick Skills Gap

No demand for Level 1 skills

Demand Supply

Literacy Skill

Source: Understanding the Literacy Market in New Brunswick: A Segmentation Analysis, Data Angel, 2009

University Degrees Granted per 1,000 Population, 2006

Source: Statistics Canada Table 477-0014 - University degrees, diplomas and certificates granted, by program level, Classification of Instructional Programs, Primary Grouping (CIP_PG) and sex, annual.

University Educated Population, 2009

13 %

14 %

15 %

15 %

17 %

17 %

18 %

19 %

20 %

22 %

22 %

Source: Population 15+. Source: Statistics Canada Table 282-0003 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), by educational attainment, sex and age group, unadjusted for seasonality, monthly.

N.B. Productivity Relative to Canada Based on GDP per Hour Worked
Canada=100

New Brunswick

Source: Data for 1987-2005 - Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) Data for 2006-2008 - Statistics Canada CANSIM, Table 384-0002 - expenditure-based GDP and Table 383-0010 - Labour statistics Data for 2009* - Estimated based on GDP at basic prices

Senior Population (65+ years) Increasing

Government Health Expenditure per Capita, 2008

Family Physicians and Specialists
Family physicians – New Brunswick: 99 family physicians for every 100,000 people, (approx 1 per 1,000) National average: 99 family physicians per 100,000 people (1 per 1,000).  Specialist Physicians – New Brunswick: 86 specialist physicians per 100,000 of population (1 per 1,163). 1 800 lits Nationally average: 94 per 100,000 people (1 per 1,064).

Source : New Brunswick Health Council – Conversation Guide – Phase I

Other human resources facts:
Staffing in New Brunswick (2007) (rate per 100,000 population) Registered Nurses - RNs Licensed Practical Nurses - LPNs Pharmacists Dentists Dental Hygienists Dieticians Occupational Therapists Physiotherapists Chiropractors New Brunswick average 1028 364 89 38 44 44 36 58 8 14 43 Canadian average Range 778 210 86 58 63 27 37 50 22 13 49 681 to 1,097 131 to 511 55 to 117 33 to 167 6 to 75 22 to 51 6 to 49 36 to 96 6 to 29 10 to 16 17 to 193

1 800 lits Optometrists
Psychologists

Important note: In 2007-2008, New Brunswick had 4.1 hospital beds available per 1,000 people. The Canadian average is 3.2 beds available per 1,000

Source : New Brunswick Health Council – Conversation Guide – Phase I

Seniors Occupying Acute Care Hospital Beds
2009
23% 535 beds

2015
48% 1,120 beds

2021

1,215 beds

100%
2,335 beds

1,800 beds

Alternative Level of Care (ALC) Seniors

Acute Care Clients

Source: Department of Social Development

Nursing Home Waiting List – 1990 to 2010

Source: Department of Social Development

Size of New Brunswick Government Full-time and part-time employees
Part I down 820 Part II up 1,000 Part III* up 5,000
*Part III figures do not include the approximately 900 people employed by Ambulance New Brunswick.

na

na

FT= PT=

FT= PT=

FT= PT=

Source: Office of Human Resources

Wellness Crisis in New Brunswick
 Chronic disease rates (e.g. diabetes, high blood pressure, heart disease) rising yearly

 34% of NB children/youth are overweight or obese

 63% of NB adults are overweight or obese

 71% of NB youth not eating enough fruits and vegetables

 93% of NB children/youth considered inactive

 21% of New Brunswickers smoke •
Source: Department of Wellness, Culture and Sport; Statistics Canada

Online Pre-Budget Consultation
• As of Feb. 3, more than 2,840 completed questionnaires and more than 200 e-mail submissions • Top three priorities: Health care, economic development and job creation, and K-12 education • Almost half of respondents prefer combination of tax increases and spending cuts • Want government to be more efficient (e.g. streamline, reduce administration, regionalize service delivery) • Balance the budget within four years

2011-2012 Pre-Budget Consultation
• Government committed to managing finances responsibly and returning to balanced budgets • New Brunswickers need to be part of decisionmaking process:
– What are your priorities for the 2011-2012 Budget? – Over what time frame should the province return to balanced budgets? – What are your proposed solutions to address the fiscal challenge?

Provide Your Feedback and Suggestions
• Online Questionnaire at:  http://www.gnb.ca/0024/index-e.asp • Written submissions by mail  2011-2012 Pre-Budget Consultation  Minister of Finance  P.O. Box 6000, Fredericton, N.B.  E3B 5H1 • By fax: 506-457-4989 • By e-mail: wwwfin@gnb.ca  Deadline is February 2, 2011