DXY 180 min.

with Weekly Support and Resistance Levels
a
-c-b(a) (b)

REPRINTED from 1/23/2011

(2)? (4)?

(a) -a-

-a-

(b)

(1)?

(3)?

-b-

(5)?

-c-?

b

Last week we were anticipating a test of the 77.95-76.79 zone. DXY didn¶t disappoint. The whole wave count from the 75.63 remains messy. Bulls are hoping that we¶re finishing a -c- wave lower. If we are seeing a little five wave move down, and confidence is low on that count, then it should find support before 77.95. Just like last week, we¶ll remain on the sidelines here as we nurse a core 20% long position.
75.63

Bulls need to break this thing back above 78.95 to regain the advantage.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY 240 min.
a
-c(a) (b) -b(c)

The -c- wave down picked an interesting point to bottom--it was 161.8% of the -a- wave!

(2)?

(a) -a(c) -a(b)
(1)? (1)? (4)?

-b-

(3)?

The development in the DXY the last few months illustrates why it¶s critical to differentiate between an ³impulsive´ or ³corrective´ move. For instance, the move up from the Mid-Nov lows was corrective in nature--therefore, it HAD TO retrace at least 60-80% of its move. Whereas, true ³impulsions´ should NOT correct more 62%.

(5)?

-c-?

b

75.63

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY 60 min.
-b-

[2]

[1]

I¶m not really ³in love´ with the ³impulsive´ count down for the -c- wave, but it¶s difficult to count it out any other way. The interesting development last week is was the ³bottoming action´ in the DXY, which witnessed the strongest rally since the decline began at 81.31 and also managed a close above the 23.6% retrace. The move up off the 76.88 lows also looks ³impulsive´ in nature--it¶s easy to count out the five waves. This looks like a market heading for 79.62, the 61.8% retrace.

[4]

(2)?

[3]

(4)?
[5]

(1)?
[5]

(1)?

[3]

(3)?
[1] [4]

[2]

(5)?

-c-?

b
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DXY 20 min. ~ A Bullish Picture
The whole look here has a bullish feel to it. It looks like it wants to carve out an inverted Head and Shoulder bottom of some kind. This is a ³buy dip´ market for early this week, with 77.57 and 77.31 being the first and second levels of support. A break below 77.31 would stop me out of any new long positions.

(1)?
[5]

[3]

Left Shoulder
[1]

[4]

Right Shoulder?

[2]

b
Head

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1³ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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