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mySAP CRM

Detailed View
CRM Analytics:
Data Mining
(Release BW 3.2)
Content

 Introduction

 Predict with:
 Decision Trees
 Scoring
 Clustering
 ABC Classification

 Business Scenarios

 Conclusion

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CRM Analytics Architecture

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Analytical Methods

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What is Data Mining?

Data mining helps you analyze and understand customer


behavior:

 Data mining is an analytical approach that looks for hidden data


patterns and relationships in large databases

 Data mining not only provides insights by analyzing past data, but it is
also capable of predicting future trends and behaviors

 Data mining allows organizations to make the critical jump from


retrospective analysis to prospective decision-making

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Why is Data Mining Important Today?

Changes in Technology:

 Increased usage of the Internet

 Appearance of data warehouses

 Increase in computing power

 Better modeling approaches

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Why is Data Mining Important Today?

Changes in Customer Behavior:

 Better informed

 More demanding

 Increased willingness to switch to competitors

 Evolution of needs: more complex, harder to satisfy

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Why is Data Mining Important Today?

Changes in Competition:

 Evolution of strategies:
 Mass marketing vs. One-to-One marketing

 Increased competition

 Fast-paced environment

 Emergence of niche players

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Data Mining Methods

Supervised Learning (Predictive):

 Decision Trees

 Scoring
(Regression)

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Data Mining Methods

Customers

Clustering (Prediction) Decision Trees


Train

Scoring (Regression)

td
ic
re
P
Exploratory Data New Data
Customer Age Income Household Size Probability of Buying Customer Age Income Household Size Probability of Buying
Sandy Jones 30 low 1 Yes Rob Eagle 45 high 2 Yes
Peter Maier 18 high 2 No Eva Smith 30 high 3 No
Sandra Müller 45 medium 2 Yes John White 20 medium 4 Yes
Susanne Wolf 70 low 1 Yes Tom Wolf 22 high 2 Yes
Oliver Paul 34 medium 3 No Oliver Mann 56 low 1 No
... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

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Data Mining Methods

Unsupervised Learning (Informative):

 Clusterin
g

A B C
 ABC
Classification

 Association
Analysis

 Scoring (Weighted Score


Tables)

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Using and Storing Data Mining Results

SAP EP SAP BW SAP CRM


(Enterprise Portal)
ODS Objects Master Data
InfoCubes Hierarchies Business

Partner

Target
Group

Online Prediction Data Mining


PM
ML
PMML

Intelligence Connector*

3rd Party Tool

*Used for Real-Time Analytics


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Data Mining - PMML

Predictive Model Markup Language (PMML) is an XML


markup language that provides a standard way to define
and share data mining models.

 Export data mining models definition rather than just their results

 Use data mining models defined with third-party tools

 Share data mining models easily between different applications and


systems

 Enable operational processes to use data mining models obtained


from multiple sources

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Data Mining – Process Overview

Step 1. Create Query Step 4. Transfer Results

BW CRM

Step 2. Define Model Step 3. Run Model

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Content

 Introduction

 Predict with:
 Decision Trees
 Scoring
 Clustering
 ABC Classification

 Business Scenarios

 Conclusion

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Decision Trees

Benefits

 Identify the different factors driving the behavior of your


customers

 Break down your customer base into segments that share the
same behavior

New Developments

 Share data mining models between different systems using


PMML
N
E
W

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Decision Trees - Definition

A decision tree is a classification approach that uses the


values of input variables to predict the value of a
categorical variable.

 Decision trees allow the user to:


 Generate readily-understandable rules with which to predict customer
behavior
 Evaluate the different values of possible outcomes and the probability to
reach them
 Produce a graphical representation of how different factors affect
an outcome
 Create a segmentation scheme based on the decision tree results

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Decision Trees – Process Overview

Customer Income Age Occupation … Buying


Behavior
Rosa Kanter $ 10 000 48 Accountant … Yes

Peter $ 3000 22 Consultant … No


Drucker Existing
Customers
Tom Peters $ 8000 36 Accountant … Yes (Historical Data)

… … … … … …

Kenichi $ 6500 34 Consultant … ?


Ohmae
New Customers
Michael $ 2000 63 Accountant … ? (New Data)
Porter
… … … … … ?

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Decision Trees – Process Overview

Historical Historical

New New 92% Accuracy

1. Train 2. Evaluate

Customer … … … … Buying
Behavior
Historical
Kenichi … … … … No
Ohmae
Michael … … … … Yes
Porter New
… … … … … Yes

3. Predict
Predicted

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Decision Trees - Definition

Age Root Node  A tree is “grown” from top


to bottom
>= 35 <35 Test
 A record sets out from the
root node
Buy Income  A test determines which
node the record should go
<=$5000 >$5000 Decision Node to next
 All records end up in a leaf
node
Won‘t Buy Occupation

Accountant Consultant
Leaf Nodes

Buy Won‘t Buy

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Decision Trees - Definition

Age Rule:
If Age is less than 35 and
>= 35 <35
Income is greater than $5000 and
Occupation is consultant, then
Buy Income

 The customer will buy the


<=$5000 >$5000
product

Won‘t Buy Occupation

Accountant Consultant

Won‘t Buy Buy

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Decision Trees – Process Overview

?
What are the most important factors I can use to predict
my customers’ buying behavior?

Purchase Frequency? Age? Occupation?

Income? Family Size? Level of Education?


Gender?

City? Number of Complaints?

Most Important
1. Age
2. Income
3. Occupation
Least Important 4. Purchase Frequency

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Decision Trees – Fraud Detection

How Can I Reduce Customer Fraud? Discovery

Train
Evaluate
Step 1. Train
Decision Trees Predict
Step 2. Test
on Historical Identify
and Evaluate Step 3. Apply Model
Data
Model on New Data Step 4. Identify
Customers with High
Fraud Probability

Application
Transfer Act

Step 5. Transfer Step 6. Adapt


Results to CRM Payment Option to
Type of Customer

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Decision Trees - Settings

Choose
Choose
Settings
Settings
View
View Train
Train
Training
Training Model
Model
Results
Results

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Decision Trees – Training Phase

Root
Root
Node
Node
Class
Class
Distributio
Distributio
nn

Decisio
Decisio
nn Node Test
Test
Node
Criteria
Criteria

Leaf
Leaf
Node
Node

Rule
Rule
Leading
Leading to
to
Leaf Node
Leaf Node
Preview
Preview
Pane
Pane
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Decision Trees – Evaluation Phase

Predicted
Predicted
Class
Class Class
Class in
in
Evaluation
Evaluation
Data
Data

Evaluatio
Evaluatio
nn
Results
Results

Error
Error
Rate
Rate

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Decision Trees – Prediction Phase
View
View Results
Results
with
with aa
Hierarchy
Hierarchy Prediction
Prediction
Results
Results

Single
Single
Record
Record
Prediction
Prediction

Creation
Creation of
of
CRM Target
CRM Target
Group
Group

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Decision Trees – Prediction Phase
Decision
Decision
Tree
Tree Results
Results
Using
Using
Hierarchy
Hierarchy

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Decision Trees – PMML Export

Generate
Generate PMML
PMML
with
with Model
Model
Definition
Definition

Export
Export PMML
PMML to
to
Flat File
Flat File

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Decision Trees – Online Prediction
Decision
Decision
Tree
Tree Web
Web
Item
Item

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Scoring

Benefits

 Create a single score for your customers by taking into


account different dimensions

 Use regression to predict future customer behavior


N
E
New Developments W

 Additional statistical measures have been added

 Scoring output visualization has been enhanced

 Online prediction feature for single records has been added

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Scoring - Definition

Three different techniques:

 Weighted Score
Tables

 Linear
Regression

 Nonlinear
Regression

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Scoring - Weighted Score Tables

Customer Income Age Gender City …

Rosa Kanter $ 10 000 48 Female San Diego …

Peter $ 3000 22 Male Los Angeles …


Drucker

Tom Peters $ 8000 36 Male New York …


City

Kenichi $ 6500 34 Male New York …


Ohmae City

Michael $ 2000 63 Male Boston …


Porter

… … … … … …

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Scoring - Weighted Score Tables
+ 1. Revenue 6 Dimensions
2. Income

3. City

Weights
4. Gender

5. Age

6. Family Size
-

Weighted Score
Tables
1 Dimension

Customer Value Index

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Scoring - Weighted Score Tables
1st Level
Weights
2/10 3/10 3/10 2/10

Overall
City + Revenue +…+ Income =
Score

Values Weights
Values Weights Values* Weights 2nd Level
New York City 50 0 0 $0-2000 20 Weights
San Diego 20 $15 000 100 $2001-5000 40

Boston 80 $5001-8000 70
*Assume Linear
Los Angeles 10 Relationship for Values $8000+ 100
Between 0-15 000
… …

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Scoring - Regression

Regression is a predictive technique that reveals and


measures the value of a given variable (where values are
continuous) in terms of other variables

 Linear Regression
y = ax + b

 Nonlinear Regression
y = f(x)

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Scoring - Regression

Customer … … … … Revenue

Rosa Kanter … … … … $ 5000 Historical

Peter … … … … $ 10 000
Drucker
… … … … … … New
1. Train
& Evaluate

Customer … … … … Revenue

Historical
Kenichi … … … … $ 7800
Ohmae
Michael … … … … $ 6000
Porter New
… … … … … …

2. Predict
Predicted

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Scoring – Customer Value Score

How Valuable are my Customers? Discovery

Select
Weight
Step 1. Select
Dimensions Score
Step 2. Assign
Affecting
Weights to Step 3. Score your Identify
Customer Value
each Customers Base with
Dimension Created Model Step 4. Sort
Customers Based on
their Value

Transfer Act
Application
Step 5. Transfer Step 6. Send Special
Results to CRM Offers to Most
Valuable Customers

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Scoring - Results
Online
Online
Prediction
Prediction

Score
Score
Distribution
Distribution

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Scoring – Weighted Score Tables

Weighting
Weighting
Scheme
Scheme

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Scoring - Regression

Quality
Quality
Measures
Measures

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Clustering

Benefits

 Segment your customer base into homogeneous clusters


based on the dimensions of your choice

N
New Developments E
W
 Share data mining models between different systems using
PMML

 Evaluate your results and interpret them more easily by using


quality measures

 Use additional functions to pre-process your data

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Clustering - Definition

Clustering is a data mining technique that creates


groups of records that are:
 Similar to each other within a particular group

 Very different across different groups

 The degree of association between members is measured by all the


dimensions specified in the analysis

 Clustering helps the user explore vast amounts of data and organize
it in a systematic way

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Clustering - Definition

Age
High

Income
Low High

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Clustering - Definition
+ Family Size

+ +
Clustering
Income Revenue

+ Age
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Clustering - Definition

Revenue 30-40s,
… City $40 000
West Coast,

Select for Marketing


Campaign
50s,
High Income
East Coast,
2-3 Children

Age

Income

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Clustering – Marketing Campaign

How Can I Improve the Efficiency Discovery


of my Marketing Campaigns?
Select
Execute
Step 1. Select
Dimensions for Evaluate
Step 2. Run
Clustering Identify
Model on Step 3. Analyze and
Selected Data Evaluate Results Step 4. Identify
Valuable Cluster(s)

Transfer Act Application


Step 5. Transfer Step 6. Tailor
Results to CRM Campaigns to each
Segment

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Clustering - Settings

Select
Select Type
Type of
of
Transformation
Transformation

View
View Data
Data
Distribution
Distribution
Choose
Choose
Weights
Weights For
For
Input Fields
Input Fields

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Clustering - Results
Quality
Quality Name
Name Single
Single
Measures
Measures Clusters
Clusters Record
Record
Prediction
Prediction

Create
Create CRM
CRM
Select
Select Target
Target
Output PMML
PMML Group
Output Group
Type Export
Export
Type
Cluster
Cluster
Size
Size

Influence
Influence

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Clustering – Value Distribution
Value
Value
Distributio
Distributio
nn Screen
Screen

Distribution
Distribution
Within
Within
Clusters
Clusters
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Clustering – Attribute Charts
Attribute
Attribute
Charts
Charts
Screen
Screen

Cumulated
Cumulated
Percentages
Percentages
Total
Total
Percentages
Percentages

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Clustering – Quality Measures

Attribute
Attribute
Value
Value Index
Index

Quality
Quality
Measures
Measures

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Clustering – Attribute Value Index

Number Of
Records
Family Size
+
Value Index
+ +
+ 1 -2
2 +2
50 + + 3 0
4 0
+

1 2 3 4
Family Size
Distribution:
Mainly Married Couples
Overall Are In Cluster 1

Cluster 1

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Clustering – Online Prediction
Clustering
Clustering
Web
Web Item
Item

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Association Analysis

Benefits

 Identify cross-selling opportunities

 Optimize the bundling of your products and maximize revenue

New Developments

 Compound characteristics can be used in defining model

N
E
W

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Association Analysis - Definition

Association Analysis uncovers the hidden patterns,


correlations or casual structures among a set of items or
objects.

 It is typically used for Market Basket Analysis (MBA).

 It allows the user to:


 Understand and quantify the relationship between different items (e.g.
products, click stream, etc...)
 Group different items by affinity
 Create readily-understandable rules describing customer buying
behavior
 Organize web pages in order to optimize user accessibility

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Association Analysis - Definition
Bundles

Association
Analysis

Customer
Transactions

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Association Analysis - Definition

When a customer buys a desktop computer,


Rule he will also be likely to buy a printer 80% of the time.
This behavior can be found in 30% of all purchases

Desktop computer Leading Item


Printer Depending Item
80% Confidence
30% Support

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Association Analysis - Definition

When a customer buys a desktop computer,


he will also be likely to buy a printer 80% of the time

A customer buys a printer 40% of the time

Lift: 80/40=2

When a customer buys a desktop computer,


he will be 2 times more likely to buy a printer
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Association Analysis - Definition
Importance of Lift

Probability: ,4 X2 Probability: ,8

Importance of Support

Confidence: 100% Confidence: 80%


Support: 10% Support: 30%
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Association Analysis – Cross-Selling Opportunities

How Can I Sell More to my Customers? Discovery

Select
Execute
Step 1. Select
Transactional Evaluate
Step 2. Run
Data from
Association Step 3. Analyze and Select
Customers
Analysis Model Evaluate Results
Step 4. Select Rules
with High Confidence
and Support

Transfer Act Application


Step 5. Transfer Step 6. Cross-Sell
Results to CRM Products to
Customers

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Association Analysis - Settings

Settings
Settings

Define
Define aa Training
Training
Source
Source for the
for the
Data
Data

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Association Analysis - Output Settings

Define
Define Filters
Filters
for
for the
the Data
Data
Output
Output

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Association Analysis - Results

Export
Export Rules
Rules
to
to CRM
CRM

Depending
Depending
Leading
Leading Item
Item Item
Item

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ABC Classification

Benefits

 Classify your customers into different segments based on their


value to your business
NE
New Developments W

 ABC Classification output visualization has been enhanced

 Classification can be done with grouping variables

 Compound characteristics can be used in defining models

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ABC Classification - Definition

ABC Classification is used to classify objects (such as


customers, employees, or products) based on a
particular measure (such as revenue or profit)

 Two different approaches for classification:


 Define intervals for classification criteria
 Define intervals for classified object

 Absolute values or cumulated percentages can be used to create


these intervals

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ABC Classification – Gain Chart

% of Revenue

100
 “A” Class:
20% of customers
80
generate 40% of revenue

 “B” Class:
60 Next 30% of customers
generate 40% of revenue

40
 “C” Class:
Last 50% of customers
generate 20% of revenue
20 A B C

% of Customers
20 40 50 60 80 100

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ABC Classification – Example

Region
California California
Customer Revenue
… … A
… …
… …
B
… … C

Massachusetts Massachusetts
Customer Revenue
… …
… … A B C
… …
… …

Nevada Nevada
Customer Revenue
… …
… …
… …
… …
… Single Model …
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ABC Classification – Gold Customers
How Much Profit are my Most Valuable Discovery
Customers Generating for my Business?
Select

Step 1. Select Define


Transactional Execute
Step 2. Define
Data from
Intervals for A, Step 3. Run ABC
Customers Evaluate
B, and C Classification Model
Classes
Step 4. Analyze and
Evaluate Results

Transfer Act Application


Step 5. Transfer Step 6. Improve
Results to CRM Customer Service for
“A” Customers

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ABC Classification – Settings

Define
Define Model
Model
Parameters
Parameters

Choose
Choose Field
Field
Type
Type

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ABC Classification – Settings

Choose
Choose
Classification
Classification
Method
Method

Define
Define
Intervals
Intervals

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ABC Classification – Results

Choose
Choose Value
Value
for
for Grouping
Grouping
Attribute
Attribute

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ABC Classification – Results

Gain
Gain Chart
Chart

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ABC Classification – Web Item
ABC
ABC Web
Web
Item
Item

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Content

 Introduction

 Predict with:
 Decision Trees
 Scoring
 Clustering
 ABC Classification

 Business Scenarios

 Conclusion

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1) Customer Retention

Decision Trees ABC Classification Clustering

A B C

At Risk B
A
Loyal
C

Goal: Reduce Customer Churn

Association
Analysis

Transfer Cross-Sell
Knowledge Rules

Marketing Campaign

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2) Customer Conversion

Association
Weighted Score Tables ABC Classification Analysis

A B C

…+…+…=… B
Cross-Sell
…+…+…=… A Rules
…+…+…=…
C

Goal: Convert B to A Customers

Transfer
Knowledge

Marketing Campaign

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3) Customer Acquisition

Clustering ABC Classification Decision Trees

A B C

Tr
ai
n
A
B
C

Goal: Acquire New “A” Customers

Pr
ed Decision Trees
i
ct Tr
Transfer ai
ne
Knowledge Prospects d

“A”

Marketing Campaign

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Content

 Introduction

 Predict with:
 Decision Trees
 Scoring
 Clustering
 ABC Classification

 Business Scenarios

 Conclusion

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Future Plans

Future Developments

 Data Mining methods integrated in Analysis Process Designer

 Ever closer integration of analytical tools with CRM operational


processes

 Additional transformations in the Analysis Process Designer

 Enhanced visualization for data mining methods

 And much more…

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Further Information

 CRM Training Course


CR900 and TACRM6 (Partner)

 mySAP CRM Analytics


SAPNET Alias: CRM-Analytics

 Direct contact:
CRM Product Management:
Ramine.Eskandari@sap.com

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