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Managerial Judgment: This technique is very
simple. In this, managers sit together, discuss
and arrive at a figure, which would be the
future demand for labor. The technique may
involve a µbottom-up¶ or a µtop-down¶
approach.
 
 
atio trend analysis based on past analysis
between a business factor to employment
and employment level itself. This is the
quickest forecasting technique. The
technique involves studying past ratios say,
between the number of workers and sales in
an organization and forecasting future ratios,
making some allowance for changes in the
organization or its methods.

 

The father of regression analysis is,


"Carl F. Gauss".

egression analysis is a mathematical


procedure. It predicts the dependent variable
and Independent variables on the basis of
factors.
 with simple linear regression analysis, one
dependent variable studied.
If there is only one driver variable, X, then we
usually speak of ³simple´ linear regression
analysis

 with multiple regression more than one


independent variable is studied a driver
variable in multiple forms, or a mixture of
these, the we speak of ³multiple linear
regression analysis´.
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ëork-study techniques can be used when it is
possible to supply work measurement to
calculate the length of operations and the
amount of labor required. The starting point in
a manufacturing company is the production
budget, prepared in terms of volumes of
sellable products for the company.
js a using standard hours for direct labor. The
standard hours per unit of output are then
multiplied by the planned volume of units to be
produced to give the total number of planned
hours for the period. This is then divided by the
number of actual working hours for an
individual operator to show the number of
operators required. jllowance will have to be
made for absenteeism and idle time.
Following is a highly simplified example of
this procedure,

Ö. Planned output for next year 20,000 units


2. Standard hours per unit 5
3. Planned hours for the year Ö,00,000
4. Productive hours per man/year
(allowing normal overtime, absenteeism and idle time)
2,000
5. Number of direct workers required (4/5) 50
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The Delphi is a research technique used for
gathering and developing expert opinion
through iterative surveys.
  
ý Save variable time in meeting.

ý Delphi makes progress on topics between


meetings.

ý jllow planners to involve more peoples in


process.
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ý Flow models are very frequently associated
with forecasting personnel needs. The
simplest one is called the Markov model. In
this technique the forecasters will,

Ö. Determine the time that should be covered.


Shorter lengths of time are generally more
accurate than longer ones.
2. Count annual movements (also called µflows¶)
among states for several time periods. These states
are defined as absorbing (gains or losses to the
company) or non-absorbing (change in position levels
or employment status). Losses include death or
disability, absences, resignations and retirements.
Gains include hiring, rehiring, transfer and movement
by position level.

3. Estimate the probability of transitions from one


state to another based on past trends. Demand is
a function of replacing those who make a
transition.


 
 

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