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William G. Zikmund

Chapter 23 Bivariate Analysis: Measures of Associations

Measures of Association

A general term that refers to a number of bivariate statistical techniques used to measure the strength of a relationship between two variables.

**Relationships Among Variables
**

Correlation analysis Bivariate regression analysis

Type of Measurement

Measure of Association

Interval and Ratio Scales

Correlation Coefficient Bivariate Regression

Type of Measurement

Measure of Association

Ordinal Scales

Chi-square Rank Correlation

Type of Measurement

Measure of Association

Nominal

Chi-Square Phi Coefficient Contingency Coefficient

Correlation Coefficient

A statistical measure of the covariation or association between two variables. Are dollar sales associated with advertising dollar expenditures?

The Correlation coefficient for two variables, X and Y is

rxy

.

Correlation Coefficient

r r ranges from +1 to -1 r = +1 a perfect positive linear relationship r = -1 a perfect negative linear relationship r = 0 indicates no correlation

**Simple Correlation Coefficient
**

Y § X X
Y
Yi § Xi X
§ Y

i i 2 2

rxy ! ryx !

Simple Correlation Coefficient

rxy ! ryx !

W xy W W

2 x 2 y

**Simple Correlation Coefficient Alternative Method
**

W = Variance of X

W = Variance of Y

W xy= Covariance of X and Y

2 y

2 x

Y

Correlation Patterns

NO CORRELATION

X

.

Y

Correlation Patterns

PERFECT NEGATIVE CORRELATION r= -1.0

X

.

Correlation Patterns

Y

A HIGH POSITIVE CORRELATION r = +.98

X

.

Calculation of r

r!

**6.3389 17.837
5.589
**

! .635

Pg 629

6.3389 ! 99.712

Coefficient of Determination

**Explained variance r ! Total Variance
**

2

**Correlation Does Not Mean Causation
**

High correlation Rooster¶s crow and the rising of the sun

± Rooster does not cause the sun to rise.

** Teachers¶ salaries and the consumption of liquor
**

± Covary because they are both influenced by a third variable

Correlation Matrix

The standard form for reporting correlational results.

Correlation Matrix

Var1 Var1 Var2 Var3 1.0 0.45 0.31 Var2 0.45 1.0 0.10 Var3 0.31 0.10 1.0

**Walkup¶s First Laws of Statistics
**

Law No. 1

± Everything correlates with everything, especially when the same individual defines the variables to be correlated.

Law No. 2

± It won¶t help very much to find a good correlation between the variable you are interested in and some other variable that you don¶t understand any better.

**Walkup¶s First Laws of Statistics
**

Law No. 3

± Unless you can think of a logical reason why two variables should be connected as cause and effect, it doesn¶t help much to find a correlation between them. In Columbus, Ohio, the mean monthly rainfall correlates very nicely with the number of letters in the names of the months!

Regression

DICTIONARY DEFINITION GOING OR MOVING BACKWARD

Going back to previous conditions Tall men¶s sons

Bivariate Regression

A measure of linear association that investigates a straight line relationship Useful in forecasting

**Bivariate Linear Regression
**

A measure of linear association that investigates a straight-line relationship Y = a + bX where Y is the dependent variable X is the independent variable a and b are two constants to be estimated

Y intercept

a An intercepted segment of a line The point at which a regression line intercepts the Y-axis

Slope

b The inclination of a regression line as compared to a base line Rise over run D - notation for ³a change in´

Y

160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

**Scatter Diagram and Eyeball Forecast
**

My line Your line

X

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

.

160

170

180

190

**Regression Line and Slope
**

Y

130 120 110 100 90 80

Ö Ö Ö Y ! a FX

(X

80 90 100 110

Ö (Y

120

130

140

150

160

.

170

180

190

X

Y

160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80

**Least-Squares Regression Line
**

Actual Y for Dealer 7

Y ³hat´ for Dealer 7 Y ³hat´ for Dealer 3

Actual Y for Dealer 3

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190 X

**Scatter Diagram of Explained and Unexplained Variation
**

Y

130

Deviation not explained

**120 110 100 90 80
**

Total deviation

{}

140

}

Deviation explained by the regression

Y

80

90

100

110

120

130

150

160

.

170

180

190

X

**The Least-Square Method
**

Uses the criterion of attempting to make the least amount of total error in prediction of Y from X. More technically, the procedure used in the least-squares method generates a straight line that minimizes the sum of squared deviations of the actual values from this predicted regression line.

**The Least-Square Method
**

A relatively simple mathematical technique that ensures that the straight line will most closely represent the relationship between X and Y.

**Regression - Least-Square Method
**

n

e is minimum §

2 i i !1

ei =

Ö Yi - Yi

(The ³residual´)

**Yi = actual value of the dependent variable Ö Yi = estimated value of the dependent variable (Y hat)
**

n = number of observations i = number of the observation

**The Logic behind the LeastSquares Technique
**

No straight line can completely represent every dot in the scatter diagram There will be a discrepancy between most of the actual scores (each dot) and the predicted score Uses the criterion of attempting to make the least amount of total error in prediction of Y from X

Bivariate Regression

ÖX Ö a !Y F

Bivariate Regression

Ö ! F

n XY
X § § n X §

2

§ Y
§ X

2

Ö F = estimated slope of the line (the ³regression coefficient´)

Ö a

Y

= estimated intercept of the y axis = dependent variable

Y = mean of the dependent variable X = independent variable X = mean of the independent variable

n = number of observations

15 ,345 2,806 ,875 193 Ö F ! 15245 ,759 3,515 ,625 2,900 ,175 2,806 ,875 ! 3,686 ,385 3,515,625 93,300 ! .54638 ! 170 ,760

Ö a ! 99 .8 .54638 125 ! 99 .8 68 .3 ! 31.5

Ö a ! 99 .8 .54638 125 ! 99 .8 68 .3 ! 31.5

Ö Y ! 31.5 .546 X
! 31.5 .546 89

! 31 .5 48 .6 ! 80 .1

Ö Y ! 31.5 .546 X
! 31.5 .546 89

! 31 .5 48 .6 ! 80 .1

ealer 7 ( ctual value ! 129) Ö 165 Y7 ! 31.5 .546 ! 121 .6 Dealer 3 (Actual Y value ! 80) Ö Y3 ! 31.5 .546 95 ! 83.4

Ö ei ! Y9 Y9 ! 97 96.5 ! 0 .5

ealer 7 ( ctual value ! 129) Ö 165 Y7 ! 31.5 .546 ! 121 .6 Dealer 3 (Actual Y value ! 80) Ö Y3 ! 31.5 .546 95 ! 83.4

Ö ei ! Y9 Y9 ! 97 96.5 ! 0 .5

Ö ! 31.5 .546 Y9 119

F-Test (Regression)

A procedure to determine whether there is more variability explained by the regression or unexplained by the regression. Analysis of variance summary table

**Total Deviation can be Partitioned into Two Parts
**

Total deviation equals Deviation explained by the regression plus Deviation unexplained by the regression

³We are always acting on what has just finished happening. It happened at least 1/30th of a second ago.We think we¶re in the present, but we aren¶t. The present we . know is only a movie of the past.´ Tom Wolfe in The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test

Partitioning the Variance

Ö Y Yi Y ! Yi

Ö Yi Yi

Deviation Deviation unexplained by Total = explained by the + the regression deviation regression (Residual error)

Y = Mean of the total group Ö Y = Value predicted with regression equation Yi = Actual value

Y Y
! § Ö Y
Y §

2 2 i i

Ö § Yi Yi

2

Total variation explained

Explained = variation

Unexplained + variation (residual)

Sum of Squares

SSt ! SSr SSe

Coefficient of Determination 2 r

The proportion of variance in Y that is explained by X (or vice versa) A measure obtained by squaring the correlation coefficient; that proportion of the total variance of a variable that is accounted for by knowing the value of another variable

Coefficient of Determination 2 r

SSr SSe 2 r ! !1 SSt SSt

Source of Variation

Explained by Regression Degrees of Freedom

± k-1 where k= number of estimated constants (variables)

Sum of Squares

± SSr

Mean Squared

± SSr/k-1

Source of Variation

Unexplained by Regression Degrees of Freedom

± n-k where n=number of observations

Sum of Squares

± SSe

Mean Squared

± SSe/n-k

2 r

in the Example

**3,398.49 r ! ! .875 3,882.4
**

2

Multiple Regression

Extension of Bivariate Regression Multidimensional when three or more variables are involved Simultaneously investigates the effect of two or more variables on a single dependent variable Discussed in Chapter 24

Correlation Coefficient, r = .75

Correl ion: Pl yer S l ry nd i ket Pri e

30 20 10 0 -10 -20

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

C C

t

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