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BIBANGCO

**Advanced Probability Theory
**

"The probable is what usually happens." - Aristotle

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Learning Objectives

In this chapter you will learn about:

Emperical and Subjective Probability Tree Diagrams Probability Distributions Mean and Standard Deviation

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Empirical Probability

Definition: uses frequency distribution to compute probabilities for situations that do not use sample spaces. Suppose a class of students consists of 4 freshmen, 8 sophomores, 6 juniors, and 7 seniors: P(E) = frequency of E z sum of frequencies P(J) = 6 / 25

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Factory Problem

40 or older

11/20

**Under 40 years old
**

9/20

**Between 30 and 39 years old
**

27/100

**Under 60 but over 39 years old
**

13/25

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Subjective Probability

Definition: based upon an educated guess, estimate, opinion, or inexact information.

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Tree Diagrams

Definition: consists of branches corresponding to the outcomes of two or more probability experiments that are done in sequence Example 1: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled Example 2: Three coins are tossed

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Probability Distributions

Definition: consists of the values of a random variable and their corresponding probabilities. Variable assume different values Random Variables assume values due to chance Example: Rolling a Die

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Types of Distributions

Discrete variable has a countable number of values. Continuous variable has an infinite number of values between any two values

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

**Discrete Probability Distribution
**

Construct a discrete probability distribution for the number of heads when three coins are tossed:

0 heads, 1 heads, 2 heads, and 3 heads 0 heads TTT 1 heads TTH, THT, HTT 2 heads THH, HTH, HHT 3 heads HHH

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Binomial Distribution

Obtained from a probability experiment called a binomial experiment Conditions:

Each trial can have only two outcomes (S or F) There is a fix number of trials The outcomes of each trial are independent of each other The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Binomial Experiment

Determining the probability of a success

where

n = the total number of trials x = the number of successes p = probability of a success

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Binomial Experiment

nCx determines the number of ways a success can occur (n!/(n-x)!x!) (n!/(n (p)x the probability of getting x successes (1 p)n-x probability of getting n-x failures n-

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

nCx (Sample

n = 6, x = 2

Computation)

n = 10, x = 2

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Sites Problem

In how many ways can a large retail store select 3 sites on which to build a new store if it has 12 sites to choose from? n (general objects)? x (selecting objects)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Coins Problem

A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting two heads and a tail in any given order. n (number of trials)? p (probability of getting a head)? head)? x (probability of success)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Die Problem

A die is rolled three times; find the probability of getting exactly one five. n (number of trials)? p (probability of getting a five)? x (probability of success)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

**Bull s Eye Problem
**

An archer hits the bull s eye 80% of the time. If he shoots 5 arrows, find the probability that he will get 4 bull s eyes. n (number of trials)? p (probability of getting a five)? x (probability of success)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

D TOUR #1

1. A student takes a 5-question true false quiz. 5Since the student has not studied, he decides to flip a coin to determine the answers. What is the probability that the student guesses exactly 3 out of 5 correctly? 2. A box contains 4 red marbles and 2 white marbles. A marble is drawn and replaced four times. Find the probability of getting exactly 3 red marbles and one white marble.

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

**Mean for Binomial Distribution
**

Mean: Q = np

where: n number of times the experiment is repeated p probability of success

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Die Problem

A die is tossed 180 times and the number of threes obtained is recorded. Find the mean or expected number of threes. n (number of trials)? p (probability of success)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Cards Problem

Twelve cards are selected from a deck and each card is replaced before the next one is drawn. Find the average number of diamonds. n (number of trials)? p (probability of success)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation: W = Q (1-p) (1where: Q = mean (1-p) = probability of failure (1-

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

Die Problem

A die is rolled 180 times. Find the standard deviation of the number of threes. Q (mean)? 1 p (probability of failure)? (probability failure)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

**Bull s Eye Problem
**

An archer hits the bull s eye 80% of the time. If he shoots 100 arrows, find the mean and standard deviation of the number of bull s eyes. If he travels to many tournaments, find the approximate range of values. Q (mean)? 1 p (probability of failure)? (probability failure)?

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

D TOUR #2

Twenty cards are selected from a deck of 52 cards. Each card isreplaced before the next card is selected. Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of clubs selected. A die is rolled 720 times. Find the mean, standard deviation, and approximate range of values for the number of threes obtained.

INSTRUCTOR: EL JIREH P. BIBANGCO

END

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