INDIA¶S COUNTERINSURGENCY EXPERIENCE

Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal (Retd.)
Senior Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi Visiting Senior Fellow, South Asian Strategic Stability Institute, London

OVERVIEW: INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
‡ NATION BUILDING PROCESS MARKED BY RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM, ETHNIC TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC DISPARITIES. ‡ CONTINUING MILITANCY/ INSURGENCY IN KASHMIR AND NORTH-EASTERN STATES. ‡ RISING MAOIST/ NAXAL INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA AND LINKAGES WITH NEPAL. ‡ ISI CONTINUING TO EXPLOIT INTERNAL WEAKNESSES. MUMBAI BLASTS ARE LATEST MANIFESTATION OF ISI DESIGNS.

OVERVIEW: INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
‡ NATION BUILDING PROCESS MARKED BY RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM, ETHNIC TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC DISPARITIES. ‡ CONTINUING MILITANCY/ INSURGENCY IN KASHMIR AND NORTH-EASTERN STATES. ‡ RISING MAOIST/ NAXAL INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA AND LINKAGES WITH NEPAL. ‡ ISI CONTINUING TO EXPLOIT INTERNAL WEAKNESSES.

The age of terrorism.

‡ ISI CONTINUING TO EXPLOIT INTERNAL WEAKNESSES. .OVERVIEW: INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT ‡ NATION BUILDING PROCESS MARKED BY RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM. ‡ CONTINUING MILITANCY/ INSURGENCY IN KASHMIR AND NORTH-EASTERN STATES. Cult of the suicide bomber. ETHNIC TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC DISPARITIES. ‡ RISING MAOIST/ NAXAL INFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA AND LINKAGES WITH NEPAL.

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‡ POLICY OPTIONS (??) . ‡ REASONS FOR SUCCESS. ‡ MAOIST/ NAXALITE THREAT.OUTLINE ‡ STATE OF PROXY WAR IN J&K. ‡ EMERGING CHALLENGES. ‡ INSURGENCY IN THE NORTHEAST.

STATE OF PROXY WAR IN J&K .

VICTIMS OF TERRORISM IN J&K .

March 31.739 . 2006 TOTAL: 10.

March 31.323 . 2006 TOTAL: 3.

March 31. 2006 TOTAL: 12.389 .

676 . 2006 TOTAL: 19.March 31.

March 31. 2006 TOTAL: 15.712 .

TOTAL: 18.658 .

234 .TOTAL: 6.

Peak: 70 per cent in 2003 .

TOTAL: 3.616 .

WEAPONS RECOVERED .

TOTAL RECOVERED: 27.735 .

267 .TOTAL RECOVERED: 1.

TOTAL RECOVERED: 1.942 .

TOTAL RECOVERED: 364 .

TOTAL RECOVERED: 10,060

TOTAL RECOVERED: 5,288

TOTAL RECOVERED: 62,945

097 MILLION ROUNDS .7.

214 .TOTAL RECOVERED: 6.

TOTAL RECOVERED: 36.900 Kg .

000 terrorists are ready for deployment. ‡ Kill ratios are better this year ± to 1:8 to 1:11 (Pak: 1:1.85 in NWFP and Balochistan).PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Despite fencing. ‡ 59 camps are functional across LoC. ‡ ISI has succeeded in maintaining pool of about 1. (Source: Maj Gen Ashok Mehta) . sensor technologies and three-tier deployment. 900 terrorists being killed annually and huge recoveries of arms and ammunition being made.500 terrorists in J&K. 2.

´ ‡ Infiltration avenues: LoC. who subsequently backtracked. Nepal.´ ‡ Pak Foreign office: ³This (hot pursuit) could trigger a nuclear war. K. Home Minister. Bangladesh. ‡ Gen Musharraf: ³(hot pursuit) will be paid back in the same coin. legal Visas. . India¶s western seaboard. Advani. not military term.HOT PURSUIT? ‡ Concept mooted by L. ‡ Civilian journalistic jargon.

DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. SOFT TARGETS. ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. . ‡ INCREASING NUMBER OF SURRENDERS. (GRENADE BLASTS?) ± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± J&K HAS HIGHEST PER CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES. ‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. ‡ SHAKY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS. HOSPITALS. MARKED BY: ± REASONABLY UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE (EDUCATION. POLITICS). ± RELATIVELY LOWER INFILTRATION LEVELS. ± TOURISM FLOURISHING.

returns. . ± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± HIGHEST PER CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES. ± TOURISM FLOURISHING. ‡ THREE-WAY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS. POLITICS).DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. ‡ INCREASING NUMBER marginal yielded only OF SURRENDERS. HOSPITALS. ± REASONABLY UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE (EDUCATION. India¶s borders has ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. ‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. MARKED BY: The counter-proxy war strategy of fighting militancy within ‡ LIMITED INFILTRATION.

‡ INCREASING NUMBER OF SURRENDERS. MARKED BY: The situation has reached ³strategic stalemate´. HOSPITALS. ± REASONABLY UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE (EDUCATION. ± TOURISM FLOURISHING. ‡ LIMITED INFILTRATION. ± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± HIGHEST PER CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES. ‡ THREE-WAY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS.DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. POLITICS). . ‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE.

. counter-proxy war ‡ INCREASING NUMBER OF SURRENDERS. ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. ‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. HOSPITALS.DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. operations and WHAM. ± TOURISM FLOURISHING. ‡ THREE-WAY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS. MARKED BY: The army and other security forces can do no more by way of ‡ LIMITED INFILTRATION. ± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± HIGHEST PER CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES. POLITICS). ± REASONABLY UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE (EDUCATION.

± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± HIGHEST PER lackadaisical governance CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES.DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. Hurriyat. . UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE Political HOSPITALS. (EDUCATION. ‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. support are hampering ‡ INCREASING NUMBER OF SURRENDERS. POLITICS). intransigence of ± TOURISM FLOURISHING. ‡ THREE-WAY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS. MARKED BY: ± REASONABLYdivisiveness.Pakistan ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. and continued ‡ LIMITED INFILTRATION. reconciliation efforts.

‡ POLITICAL DISAFFECTION CONTINUES. MARKED BY: Remaining roots of militancy/ terrorism are mostly in ‡ LIMITED INFILTRATION. POK ‡ SPORADIC INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. HOSPITALS. POLITICS). ± ECONOMY LOOKING UP ± HIGHEST PER CAPITA INCOME AMONG AFFECTED STATES.DEDUCTIONS ‡ SEMBLANCE OF NORMALCY. ‡ THREE-WAY RAPPROCHEMENT PROCESS. ‡ INCREASING NUMBER OF ± REASONABLY UN-INTERRUPTED CIVILIAN LIFE (EDUCATION.SURRENDERS. and Pakistan. . ± TOURISM FLOURISHING.

TERRORISTS. SUPPORT TO INSURGENTS LIKE ULFA. PLA MAHARASTRA . NSCN(IM).LINKS WITH COMMUNAL ELEMENTS AND MAOISTS ITBP SRI LANKA .J&K .TRG.ARMS. PROXY WAR ISI LINKAGES UP .SMUGGLING OF ARMS/RDX &GUJARAT AP .ASSIST FUNDAMENTALIST ORG ALONG INDO-NEPAL BORDER NEPAL INDIA BANGLADESH NE .

.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN Ways and means need to be found to raise the cost for Pakistan to wage its proxy war against India.

INSURGENCY IN THE NORTHNORTH-EAST .

335 1.VIOLENCE IN THE NORTH EAST 2001 2002 2003 Incidents Extremists killed Security Forces killed Civilians killed 2004 2005 1.312 1.332 1.332 405 1.234 572 571 523 404 175 147 90 110 70 600 454 494 414 393 .

‡ Socio-economic deprivation. law and order and development. ‡ Main causes: ‡ Failure of State and Central governments to integrate isolated region with national mainstream ± feeling of alienation.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ All seven NE states have been engulfed in insurgencies that have paralysed administration. ‡ Ethnic tensions. . ‡ Failure of political leadership.

‡ Vote-bank politics.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Main causes (continued): ‡ Domination of economy by outsiders. ‡ External exploitation: ISI aid. . ‡ Demographic shift due to illegal migration from Bangladesh. shelter provided by Bangladesh (new hub of international terrorism). Imposition of CMs from outside. Foreigners Act approved by the Government favours migrants.

. ‡ Lack of employment opportunities for the youth make them vulnerable to exploitation.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Autonomous Councils (VI Schedule of Constitution) have failed due to poor management at political and bureaucratic level. ‡ Poor governance and rampant corruption in utilising government grants.

PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Approach of Central and State Governments: ‡ Neither the Centre nor the states have ever had a coherent. . Op Rhino. ‡ State police is incapable of dealing with externally aided insurgencies. ‡ On-off counter-insurgency policies: Op Bajrang. consistent policy to deal with the insurgencies.

‡ µPeace talks¶ have been stagnating in various NE states for decades with virtually no progress except that in some cases the cease-fire has held.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Centre¶s view is that law & order is a state subject and the Centre¶s job is to provide additional paramilitary forces. . ‡ µPackages¶ announced by visiting PMs are mostly for political gains.

cease-fire has held. are having astagnating in various ‡ µPeace talks¶ have been crippling impact on NE states for decades with virtually no progress except that in some cases the national unity. ‡ µPackages¶ announced by visiting PMs are mostly for political gains. .PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Centre¶s view is that law & order is a state subjectTheseCentre¶s job is to provide and the movements additional paramilitary forces.

PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Centre¶s view is that law & order is a state subject andinsurgencies need to The the Centre¶s job is to provide additionaltackled by forces. be paramilitary the Centre ‡ µPeace talks¶ have beenon priority various and the States stagnating in NE states for through a virtually no decades with basis progress except that in some cases the comprehensive nationalcease-fire has held. ‡ µPackages¶ announced by visiting PMs are mostly for political gains. level strategy. .

MAOIST/ NAXALITE THREATS .

T D .

T D ‡ Jehanbad: jail break ‡ Latehar: train hijack ‡ Udaygiri: jail break .

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Deaths dents Andhra Jharkhand Bihar Maharashtra Orissa Madhya.Deaths dents dents 310 352 379 323 84 35 13 26 11 11 74 83 169 171 15 8 4 10 15 1 532 380 308 183 95 42 20 1 14 10 206 165 118 94 53 14 3 7 8 (Kerala.Deaths dents 577 256 342 250 75 49 13 138 6 16 140 74 117 128 31 15 1 15 1 2004 2005 Inci.597 515 1. P Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Other States Tamil Nadu) Total 1.465 482 1.Deaths Inci.594 669 346 353 239 83 68 17 20 17 18 96 55 157 117 29 11 3 6 7 1 Chhattisgarh 304 2003 Inci.533 566 1. Karnataka. .NAXAL VIOLENCE (STATE VISE) 2002 Inci.

35% of population affected. ‡ > 150 districts in 12 states. PWG and MCC merged to form CPI (Maoists). . ‡ 39 left wing extremist groups. gained momentum in recent years. ‡ Policy of µmilitarisation¶ since 2001.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Naxalite movement began in 1967. People¶s Guerrilla Army formed to act as µrevolutionary vanguard¶.

gained momentum in recent years. (Maoists). violence: killings. extortion. Maoist incidents account ‡ > 150 districts in 12 states. ‡ Policydestruction of property. PWG and MCC merged to form CPI IED blasts and abduction. 35% of for over 60% of the population affected. wing extremist groups. of µmilitarisation¶ since 2001.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Naxalite movement began in 1967. People¶s Guerrilla Army formed to act as µrevolutionary vanguard¶. ‡ 39 leftkidnappings. .

000 OG and more than 1.000 in frontal organisations. ULFA.000 UG. and LTTE for training and modern weapons. ‡ Links with Turkish and Philippine terrorist organisations likely. They are mainly Dalits. ‡ Links with Nepalese Maoists.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Naxalites do not belong to any religion or community.00. . Adivasis or other marginalised sections of society totally indoctrinated by the teachings of Mao and Marx. 50. ‡ Strength: 20.

‡ It is estimated that PWG and MCC extort between Rs 5.000 to 7. Adivasis and other landless people by feudal agrarian system with strong interface of caste and class. ‡ Mine owners.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Growth of Naxalite movement due the exploitation and oppression of Dalits. . businessmen and government officials.000 million annually. contractors and forest mafia are using the Naxal muscle power to extort money from corporate world.

Adivasis and other landless people by feudal Next step: Compact Revolutionary agrarian system with strong interface of caste Zone (CRZ) extending from Nepal. .000 to 7. contractors and forest mafia Tamil Nadu to gain access to the are using of Bengal and the power to extract Bay the Naxal muscle Indian money from corporate world. ‡ It is estimated that PWG and MCC collect between Rs 5. businessmen Ocean. and government officials. and class. Bihar. Dandakaranya regions to ‡ Mine owners.PRESENT SITUATION ‡ Growth of Naxalite movement due the exploitation and oppression of Dalits.000 million annually.

‡ This view quickly changed to an all out offensive by the state when the Naxals killed a Congress leader! .ANALYSIS ‡ Different states have dealt with the situation differently ± but always with vote banks in mind. ‡ In Orissa there is a proposal to raise battalions from Adivasis of Naxal region to deal with Naxals because the police µcannot enter the area¶ due to µlogistical difficulties¶! ‡ In Andhra Pradesh when the Congress government came to power peace was declared by them as the Naxals were considered µour own misguided people¶.

Several other incidents. .ANALYSIS ‡ Salwa Judum (purification hunt) is a government-sponsored peace campaign ± neither voluntary nor spontaneous. concerned state governments are at their wits¶ end. 27 participants were killed near Dharbaguda (Konta) in IED blast. ‡ It is also without protection. ‡ Clearly. ‡ State police are unable to cope with these raiders of the night and keep losing weapons.

(³Status Paper on Naxal Problem´ issued by MHA. ‡ Three main reasons: ‡ Naxal menace not an emotive issue like Kashmir. ‡ Confusion whether Naxals are ³terrorists´ or not ± ³social justice´ tag. 2006). .ANALYSIS ‡ Central Government is apathetic though it claims that it has a policy. ‡ Notion that Naxal menace is ³not as bad as it seems´. March 13.

000.71 2005-06 Andhra Pradesh 4 Bihar 3.35 43.FUNDS RELEASED State ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 2001-02 2002-03 2003-2004 2004-05 2005-06 193.00 100.27 166.06 Maharashtra 262.00 29.00 200.98 221.00 65.00 601.53 150.00 77.77 54.00 23.098.55 72.462.52 1.37 168.90 200.85 160.29 Chhattisgarh 32.83 54.85 60.885.07 831.41 184.00 282.82 180.87 98.17 954.47 2.670.10 Madhya Pradesh 711.00 125.30 100.99 250.16 200.14 500.00 200.00 341.82 81.52 8.80 Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Total (Crore) 9.60 200.00 36.00 96.00 ‡ .25 Jharkhand 18.66 Orissa 567.00 1.42 86.00 82.68 139.38 217.

‡ State police are unable to cope with these out of control. . The situation is ‡ Also without protection. concerned state governments are at their wits¶ end.ANALYSIS ‡ Salwa Judum (purification hunt) is a government-sponsored peace campaign ± neither voluntary nor spontaneous. perceptibly spinning Several other incidents. raiders of the night and keep losing weapons. ‡ Clearly. 27 participants were gradually but killed near Dharbaguda (Konta) in IED blast.

is before the army C¶garh) in IED blast.ANALYSIS ‡ Salwa Judum (purification hunt) is a government-sponsored peace campaign ± neither voluntary nor spontaneous. concerned state governments are at their wits¶ end. whistled-in to stem the ‡ State police are unable to cope with these raiders of the night and keep losing weapons. How long will27 participants were it be ‡ Also without protection. rot? ‡ Clearly. . Several other incidents. killed near Dharbaguda (Konta.

C¶garh) in IED blast. Can the army take on ‡ Also without protection. ‡ Clearly. security commitment? ‡ State police are unable to cope with these raiders of the night and keep losing weapons. .ANALYSIS ‡ Salwa Judum (purification hunt) is a government-sponsored peace campaign ± neither voluntary nor spontaneous. concerned state governments are at their wits¶ end. Several other incidents. 27 participants were another major internal killed near Dharbaguda (Konta.

Subrahmanyam: If the war against terrorism is to be won. Jehadi extremists in Pakistan have to be liquidated. International pressure« ‡ Maj Gen Ashok Mehta: We can control terror in two ways« pre-emptive action and investing money« ‡ Maj Gen Afsir Karim: Create a backlash among terrorists« incremental and pragmatic offensive action« .ANALYSTS¶ PRESCRIPTIONS ‡ K.

plugging of loopholes (better coordination). foolproof security measures. .ANALYSTS¶ PRESCRIPTIONS ‡ Lt Gen V K Sood: Take pre-emptive action and outsmart them before they can attack us« ‡ K P S Gill: Tough action« (Punjab style). Uday Bhaskar: Legitimate use of force« empathetic use of µsoft power¶ to win against ideology. ‡ Cmde C. constant supervision of arrangements.

The Maoist threat is real and imminent. . India needs a well-deliberated and finely calibrated response strategy with compatible operating doctrines. To cope with the threat. Overall. both at policy formulation and policy execution levels. if not flawed. resources and expertise. structures. the national response to the problem has been inadequate.

COUNTERCOUNTERTERRORISM ARRANGEMENTS .

. ± Could draw on resources of Multi-Action Group (MAG) that also has military representation and a data bank. ± Each comprises six hand-picked state police officials and two IB officials for rapid action on information becoming available. ± Has identified 56 vulnerable places. ± SAGs have withered under present NSA.COUNTER-TERRORISM ARRANGEMENTS ‡ Joint Task Force on Terrorism ± Set up to overcome Centre-State jurisdiction problems in combating terrorism. ± In each a Special Action Group (SAG) set up.

Defence and Foreign Ministries. Present NSA not keen on it. ±Headed by NSA. Intelligence Chiefs. Secretaries Home. .COUNTER-TERRORISM ARRANGEMENTS ‡ Intelligence Coordination Group ±Set up on recommendations of GoM after Kargil conflict. ±Regular meetings held under Brajesh Mishra. Members: Cabinet Secretary. ±Task: Intelligence tasking and reviews.

but yet to take off. SA to RM. Intelligence Chiefs. ±Headed by NSA. Principal Scientific Advisor. Proposed CDS. .COUNTER-TERRORISM ARRANGEMENTS ‡ Technical Coordination Group ±Initiated by Brajesh Mishra for enhancing technical capabilities for intelligence gathering. ±National Technical Facilities Organisation (NTFO) set up for gathering signals intelligence. Includes Cab Secretary.

Inactive since then. . ±Its absence sorely felt with recent espionage cases: Navy War Room leak.COUNTER-TERRORISM ARRANGEMENTS ‡ National Information Board ±Apex body in India¶s information security architecture. ±Headed by NSA. cyber spy case at NSC Secretariat. ±Has met only once under J N Dixit in July 2004.

EMERGING CHALLENGES .

others. . International links.EMERGING CHALLENGES ‡ Sectarian and caste violence ± average 600 cases of communal riots each year. construction industries. ‡ Subversion ± 200 ISI modules detected and dismantled so far. ‡ Organised crime ± film. ‡ New forms of terrorism.

‡ Threats to India¶s maritime assets (offshore oil platforms. ‡ Bio-terrorism. ‡ Nuclear terrorism?? . ‡ Threats to India¶s nuclear installations. ‡ RDDs (Radiological dispersal devices). attractive commercial targets like VLCCs).EMERGING CHALLENGES New forms of Terrorism: ‡ Cyber-terrorism.

REASONS FOR SUCCESS .

‡ NO area weapons. use of minimum force: ‡ Small arms only. Complete lack of µoccupation forces¶ syndrome. .Reasons for Success ‡ Realisation that insurgents are our own misguided youth. not even 2 and 3 inch (81 mm) mortars. ‡ Hence. ‡ Rare use of rocket launchers ± with Brigade Commander¶s approval.

Reasons for Success
‡ Artillery, helicopter gunships and ground strike fighter aircraft have never been used. ‡ Immense emphasis on winning the battle of µhearts and minds¶: ‡ Help in building schools, computer
centers, dispensaries, micro-hydel projects in rural areas. ‡ Medical camps. ‡ Disaster relief.

Reasons for Success
‡ Stress on Rear Area Security: ‡ Road clearance operations.
‡ Anti-ambush drills. ‡ Quick reaction teams. ‡ Vigorous patrolling. ‡ Coordinated intelligence acquisition (humint, electronic). ‡ Resilience of individual soldiers. ‡ Regimental system.

Reasons for Success
Human Rights:

‡ Specialised training in Corps Battle Schools
before induction into deployment areas. ‡ Operations planned carefully to avoid undue inconvenience to people. ‡ Each soldier carries µ10 Commandments¶. ‡ Full access to state and central Human Rights Commissions. ‡ Transparent investigation of allegations of human rights abuses and exemplary punishment to defaulters.

‡ Commanders personally charged with responsibility for protection of human rights. . ‡ Vocal advocacy of human rights by various NGOs.Reasons for Success Human Rights: ‡ Very strong media presence and complete freedom to report.

COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL STRATEGY INTELLIGENCE COORDINATION INTERNAL SECURITY SURRENDER REHABILITATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT .

Your turn! .

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POLICY OPTIONS .

.POLICY OPTIONS Pro-active counter-proxy war. counter-insurgency and counterterrorism operations combined with comprehensive socio-economic development and political efforts to end alienation.

across the border in constant supervision of arrangements.ANALYSTS¶ PRESCRIPTIONS ‡ Lt Gen V K Sood: Take pre-emptive action and outsmart them before they Except Naxalite/Maoist can attack us« terrorism. plugging of loopholes even Pakistan and (better coordination). Bangladesh. ‡ Cmde C. roots of ‡ K P S Gill: Toughin India lie action« (Punjab terrorism style). foolproof security measures. . Uday Bhaskar: Legitimate use of force« empathetic use of µsoft power¶ to win against ideology.

foolproof security measures. these roots. of arrangements. constant supervision Trans-LoC plugging of loopholes (better strikes to raise the coordination).ANALYSTS¶ PRESCRIPTIONS ‡ Lt Gen V K Sood: Take pre-emptive action and outsmart them before they Covert offensive can attack us« are methods ‡ K P S Gill: Tough action« (Punjab necessary to destroy style). cost for Pakistan ‡ Cmde C. of force« empathetic use of µsoft power¶ to win against ideology. . Uday Bhaskar: Legitimate use should be an option.

. ‡ New national-level IS Force?? th armed force. ‡ Could be initially based on present RR and some AR battalions. ‡ Under army¶s operational control. ‡ Under MoD ± 5 ‡ With army¶s ethos and training.POLICY OPTIONS ‡ Need to reduce army¶s involvement in internal security duties.

warfare is here ‡ Under army¶s operational control. .POLICY OPTIONS ‡ Need to reduce army¶s involvement in internal security duties. ‡ Could present RR. Sub‡ New national-level IS Force?? th armed conventional force. ‡ Under MoD ± 5 ‡ With army¶s ethos and training. to be initially based on stay.

unconventional. thinking. out-of-the-box ‡ Under army¶s operational control.POLICY OPTIONS ‡ Need to reduce army¶s involvement in internal security duties. . ‡ Under MoD ± 5 ‡ With army¶s ethos and training. Need for IS Force?? ‡ New national-level th armed force. based on ‡ Could be initially present RR.

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THREAT FROM PAKISTAN .

. DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE. ± CONTAIN INDIA IN COLLUSION WITH CHINA TO PREVENT INDIA FROM EMERGING AS A SOUTHERN ASIAN POWER. ± DESTABILISE AND WEAKEN INDIA INTERNALLY.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ NUCLEAR-CAPABLE PAKISTAN REMAINS INDIA¶S MAJOR MILITARY THREAT IN IMMEDIATE FUTURE. ‡ PAKISTAN ARMY¶S STATED AIM: ± WREST KASHMIR FROM INDIA THROUGH PROXY WAR AND POLITICAL.

TO ENSURE INDIAN ARMY REMAINS COMMITTED IN COUNTER-INSURGENCY OPERATIONS. .THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ TO OFFSET CONVENTIONAL ASYMMETRY. INCLUDING ACTS OF TERRORISM. PAKISTAN ARMY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RESORT TO SUB-CONVENTIONAL WARFARE.

INTERNAL TURMOIL AND ETHNIC AND COMMUNAL TENSIONS.SPONSORSHIP OF TERRORISM ‡ PAKISTAN IS WAGING A LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT AGAINST INDIA THRU SPONSORSHIP OF TERRORISM AS AN INSTRUMENT OF ITS FOREIGN POLICY. ‡ THE AIM IS TO DEGRADE INDIA¶S INDUSTRIAL AND ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND MILITARY ASSETS BY A GRADUAL PROCESS OF ATTRITION AND COERCIVE STRATEGIES THAT INCLUDE MASS CASUALTY ATTACKS. . ‡ PAKISTAN BELIEVES THAT INDIA¶S SECURITY APPARATUS AND COHESION AS A STATE WILL EVENTUALLY COLLAPSE UNDER THE ONSLAUGHT OF TERRORISM. DESTABILISATION AND SUBVERSION OF ADMINISTRATION.

‡ EMPLOY ISI TO SPAWN MADRASA CULTURE AND CREATE A COMMUNAL/ SECTARIAN DIVIDE. . PAKISTAN ARMY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RESORT TO SUB-CONVENTIONAL WARFARE. ‡ PLAY NUCLEAR CARD WHEN IT SUITS PAKISTANI INTERESTS (KASHMIR AS NUCLEAR FLASHPOINT).THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ TO OFFSET CONVENTIONAL ASYMMETRY. TO ENSURE INDIAN ARMY REMAINS COMMITTED IN COUNTER-INSURGENCY OPERATIONS. INCLUDING ACTS OF TERRORISM.

± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN NETWORKS. .THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO KASHMIRIS.

THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO KASHMIRIS. .stranglehold has a ‡ CONTINUE the nation¶s EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT over INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. polity. The Pakistan army ± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN NETWORKS.

‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO KASHMIRIS. INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. the country¶s ± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN NETWORKS.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: The army dictates ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. . Kashmir policy and ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT nuclear policy.

± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN NETWORKS. . Pakistan is the ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO KASHMIRIS.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. The real threat to peace and stability between India and ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. Pakistan army.

± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN will decide whether NETWORKS. ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO allowed to proceed. the present peace ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT process RIGHTS INDIA¶S HUMANwill be RECORD. KASHMIRIS.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: The Pakistan army ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. .

fight on threeTO DISCREDIT fronts: ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS Kashmir. . ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO border and internal KASHMIRIS. ± CYBERWAR TO army cannot Pakistan DISRUPT INDIAN NETWORKS. unrest.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: Assessment: The ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. western INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.

THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: Assessment: The ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. ± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN present peace NETWORKS. . change of OVERTURES TO KASHMIRIS. ‡ MAKE POLITICAL heart. process is a tactical ‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT ploy ± not a strategic INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.

KASHMIRIS.THREAT FROM PAKISTAN ‡ FIND NEW MEANS TO DESTABILISE INDIA AND ITS ECONOMY: Assessment: Pakistan¶s ± CIRCULATION OF FAKE CURRENCY. ± CYBERWAR TO DISRUPT INDIAN proxy war will become NETWORKS. . ‡ MAKE POLITICAL OVERTURES TO deniability. more sophisticated -‡ CONTINUE EFFORTS TO DISCREDIT focus on easy INDIA¶S HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.

does India¶s strategic culture permit such a course of action? .POLICY OPTIONS However.

INDIA·S STRATEGIC CULTURE .

‡ INDIA WAS DIVIDED INTO SMALL KINGDOMS AND PRINCIPALITIES. ‡ INDIAN KINGS FAILED TO MODERNISE THEIR ARMIES AND SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS. ‡ CONQUERORS ENTERED INDIA MOSTLY THROUGH KHYBER PASS IN THE WEST. ‡ HIMALAYAN SHIELD FORM THE NORTH.INDIA¶S STRATEGIC CULTURE ‡ ANCIENT EMPIRES ENDED WITH ASHOKA THE GREAT WHO RENOUNCED WAR AND EMBRACED BUDDHISM. .

‡ HIMALAYAN SHIELD FORM THE NORTH. ‡ INDIAN KINGS FAILED TO MODERNISE THEIR ARMIES AND SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS. ‡ INDIA WAS DIVIDED INTO SMALL KINGDOMS AND PRINCIPALITIES. Panipat Syndrome .INDIA¶S STRATEGIC CULTURE ‡ ANCIENT EMPIRES ENDED WITH ASHOKA THE GREAT WHO RENOUNCED WAR AND EMBRACED BUDDHISM. ‡ CONQUERORS ENTERED INDIA MOSTLY THROUGH KHYBER PASS IN THE WEST.

‡ HIMALAYAN SHIELD FORM THE NORTH. . ‡ INDIA WAS DIVIDED INTO SMALL KINGDOMS AND PRINCIPALITIES.INDIA¶S STRATEGIC CULTURE ‡ ANCIENT EMPIRES ENDED WITH ASHOKA THE GREAT WHO RENOUNCED WAR AND EMBRACED BUDDHISM. India lacks a strategic culture. Tanham -.George ‡ CONQUERORS ENTERED INDIA MOSTLY THROUGH KHYBER PASS IN THE WEST. ‡ INDIAN KINGS FAILED TO MODERNISE THEIR ARMIES AND SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS.

landdominated strategic orientation. . ± The British Raj nurtured in Indian thinkers a predisposition toward a predominately defensive.'µ ‡ Tanham gave four key reasons: ± Geography lent Indian thinking an "insular perspective and a tradition of localism and particularism. ± This leads inexorably to the third: the primacy of culture in India's world outlook and the "assumed superiority'' of this culture.'' ± The discovery of history by Indian elites in the past 150 years was the second element.TANHAM·S ARGUMENT ‡ Indian elites« "show little evidence of having thought coherently and systematically about national strategy.

. ‡ INDIAN KINGS FAILED TO MODERNISE THEIR ARMIES AND SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS. ‡ HIMALAYAN SHIELD FORM THE NORTH. India has a very well-defined strategic culture.INDIA¶S STRATEGIC CULTURE ‡ ANCIENT EMPIRES ENDED WITH ASHOKA THE GREAT WHO RENOUNCED WAR AND EMBRACED BUDDHISM. ‡ CONQUERORS ENTERED INDIA MOSTLY THROUGH KHYBER PASS IN THE WEST. ‡ INDIA WAS DIVIDED INTO SMALL KINGDOMS AND PRINCIPALITIES.

Offer the other cheek when slapped on one. ‡ INDIA WAS DIVIDED INTO SMALL KINGDOMS AND PRINCIPALITIES. .INDIA¶S STRATEGIC CULTURE ‡ ANCIENT EMPIRES ENDED WITH ASHOKA THE GREAT WHO RENOUNCED WAR AND EMBRACED BUDDHISM. ‡ INDIAN KINGS FAILED TO MODERNISE THEIR ARMIES AND SUFFERED CONSECUTIVE DEFEATS. ‡ CONQUERORS ENTERED INDIA MOSTLY THROUGH KHYBER PASS IN THE WEST. ‡ HIMALAYAN SHIELD FORM THE NORTH.