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Pittsburgh and Allegheny County

Portrait of an Aging Society


September 25, 2007

Richard Schulz
Christopher Briem
University Center for Social and Urban Research
University of Pittsburgh
121 University Place
University of Pittsburgh
cbriem@pitt.edu
This Presentation
■ Regional Demographic Change in SW PA
■ Concentration of Elderly and NORC’s
■ Elderly and Race
■ Economic Impact of Elderly
■ Elderly Migration
■ Local Aging Trends and Projections
Demographic Impact and Legacy
■ Regional net out-migration peaked at over 50,000
per year in 1983.
■ Out-Migration was very age Selective: younger left,
older stayed.
■ Region soon became one of the ‘oldest’ regions in
the country.
■ Workforce migration left region skill-deficient for
new/emerging industries.
■ Region still has a unique older demographic
affecting current population trends.
Annual Net Migration Rates by Major Age Group
Pittsburgh Region 1980-2000

1%

0%

-1%
20-39
-2% 40-65
65+
-3%

-4%

-5%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Natural Population Change:
Births Minus Deaths (2000-2006) as % of Population

Deaths exceed births for Pittsburgh


Concentration of Elderly Within Region
■ Concentration of elderly uneven within region
■ Naturally Occurring Retirement Communities (NORCs)
throughout region
■ Specific sub-regions highly concentrated elderly population
■ Public Finance issues:
– Reliance on property taxes/impact on fixed income households
– Service needs of elderly population
– Location of public services for elderly
Concentration of Elderly Population (Age 65+)
Southwestern Pennsylvania Municipalities, 2000
Highest Elderly Concentrations (Age 65 and over)
Allegheny County Municipalities, 2000
Municipality Total Age 65 +
Population
Sewickley Heights 981 277 28.2%
Braddock Hills 1,998 563 28.2%
South Versailles 338 91 26.9%
Versailles 1,730 461 26.6%
Cheswick 1,899 506 26.6%
Wilkins 6,917 1,775 25.7%
Bridgeville 5,341 1,368 25.6%
Collier 5,265 1,332 25.3%
Oakmont 6,911 1,737 25.1%
Whitehall 14,444 3,512 24.3%
White Oak 8,474 2,057 24.3%
Churchill 3,566 862 24.2%
Clairton 8,491 2,039 24.0%
Port Vue 4,228 1,013 24.0%
Allegheny County 1,281,666 228,285 17.8%
US 281,421,906 34,978,972 12.4%
Elderly and Race

■ Differential
disability status by race
■ Elderly poverty concentrated by race
■ Projections differ by race
Disability Status by Race, 2000
US Pennsylvania Allegheny City of
Pittsburgh
White Black White Black White Black White Black

Any Disability 37.5% 50.5% 36.0% 48.5% 35.0% 49.6% 39.7% 51.5%
Physical 25.1% 33.8% 23.1% 32.1% 22.4% 33.4% 25.9% 35.4%
Disability
Self Care 7.6% 13.1% 7.1% 12.0% 7.2% 10.6% 8.4% 11.3%
Disability
Go Outside 16.5% 26.0% 16.7% 25.0% 17.2% 24.2% 19.5% 25.2%
Disability
Employment 3.4% 6.3% 2.9% 5.1% 2.6% 5.5% 2.9% 6.0%
Disability
Poverty Status by Gender Age and Race
Allegheny County vs. US, 2006
Men Women
White United Alleghe United Alleghe
Population States ny States ny
County County
55 to 64 years 6.7% 5.5% 8.1% 7.3%
65 to 74 years 5.5% 4.2% 8.3% 6.7%
75 years and 6.5% 6.9% 11.9% 13.1%
over
Black
Population
55 to 64 years 16.0% 16.1% 19.1% 26.1%
65 to 74 years 15.4% 16.4% 21.7% 19.0%
75 years and 17.2% 6.8% 27.4% 16.4%
over
Elderly Return Migration
■ Elderly migration flows both in and out of region
■ Impact on local service demand
■ Factor in creating Naturally Occurring Retirement
Communities (NORCs)
■ Elderly return migrants
– Older
– More likely to be widowed
– More disabled
Pittsburgh to Florida Elderly Migration Flows:1995-2000
Age Distribution of Migration Flows
Economic Impact of Elderly
■ Retirement income and medical costs funded nationally
represent income gain for region.
■ Pittsburgh Region: $6.2 billion in Retirement/Disability
Benefits(2005)
■ Medicare Benefits in Pittsburgh Region: $4.6 billion (2005)
■ Together $10.6 billion or roughly 10% of regional Gross
Regional Product.
■ Employment and investment impact concentrated in
specific industries.
Allegheny County Elderly Forecast
■ Elderly (Age 65+) Population peaked in 1995
■ Decline Through 2012
■ Older Cohorts will show same pattern
– 75+ population peaking now
– 85+ growing now/ peak around 2014
■ Allegheny County in 1995: 18.5% Age 65 and
over. Where US is projected to be in 2026.
■ Health impacts on future elderly.
Allegheny County Elderly Population (Age 65+) 1990-2020

First Peak in 1995


Older Elderly Population (Age 85+)
Allegheny County 1990 - 2020
Conclusions

 Mid 1990’s Elderly Concentration in Pittsburgh


region (18.5%) where nation will be around 2026.
 Forecasted population changes will differ across
age cohorts - impacting service demand and
delivery.
 Local concentrations of elderly can be far above or
below regional/national averages.
 Post baby boom changes will also be significant.