UK ENERGY SCENARIOS

crossing the fossil and nuclear bridge to a safe, sustainable, economically viable energy future
Preliminary scenarios for discussion and development only
Mark Barrett Mark.Barrett@ucl.ac.uk Complex Built Environment Systems University College London
Society Energy Environment SEE

1

Scenario development process
Introduction Models used Demand drivers End use sectors Supply sectors Discussion ‡ energy ‡ emissions ‡ economics System dynamics and spatial issues More international aspects Energy security

Please note that some of the slides are animated (they have animated in the title). View these slides for a few moments and the animation should start and keep looping back to the beginning.

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Introduction 1
This outline of UK energy and environment scenarios has been developed with the intention of identifying the main problems the UK will face in meeting future energy needs and environmental objectives, and to describe possible policy options for resolving these problems. The approach here is to assume policy options and estimate the energy, emission and microeconomic impacts of these policy options. It is not claimed that the scenarios are optimum in that more robust and cost-effective solutions may be found. The aim is to illustrate a development path that is incremental, flexible, and secure, with no undue reliance on fuels or technologies having substantial risks. The aims are to identify energy and environment strategies that: ‡ enhance the security of UK energy services by reducing imported fuel dependence and technology risk ‡ meet energy needs with safe, sustainable energy systems ‡ limit environmental impact, with an emphasis here on: ± the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, ± atmospheric pollutants; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and carbon monoxide ‡ are technically feasible and economically viable ‡ give a practical development path leading from finite fuels to renewable energy A broader aim is to consider temporal and spatial aspects of energy demand and supply, within the UK and at the international scale, to ensure technical feasibility and take account of the international context

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Introduction 2
The scenarios are designed to be practical, feasible, but are not necessarily µbest.¶ It is not possible to objectively define the best scenario because: ‡ although there is some agreement about goals concerning the environment, consumption, technology risk and irreversibility, market cost, subsidies, etc., the weights attached to these goals are subjective and differ between individuals and groups ‡ there are aspects which it will never be possible to accurately quantify, such as: what is the probability of an accident or terrorist attack on current or future nuclear facilities, and what would be its impact on the UK, even if radioactive release were negligible? ‡ the future evolution of technologies in the long term is uncertain; half a century ago, the UK had negligible nuclear power or natural gas supply. Some observations: ‡ Developments of social structure, attitudes, demand, supply, technology, etc. are all, to some extent, determined by national policies. ‡ Planning UK energy futures can not be done in isolation from Europe and the rest of the world, because of global energy resources, energy trade, and international politics. ‡ As yet there are no supply options which score highest on all criteria and therefore these must balanced according to present knowledge. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainties with respect to demand, technology development, and the international context. As solar electricity (e.g. photovoltaic), electricity storage and long distance transmission become cheaper, then there may be agreement that other options are inferior and the µenergy problem¶ will perhaps be µsolved.¶. No consideration is made here of how policy options would be implemented with statutory, fiscal or other instruments. A presumption is made that these would be developed and applied as necessary to secure the UK¶s future energy services and economy, and to protect the environment. Society Energy Environment SEE

Policy options

The policy aims are to be met using five classes of option: ‡ Behavioural change: demand, and choice and use of technologies ± demand substitution, less air travel ± modal shift from car and truck to bus and rail, lower motorway speeds, building temperatures ± smaller cars ‡ Demand management ± insulation, ventilation control, recycling, efficient appliances... ‡ Energy efficient conversion ± cogeneration... ‡ Fuel switching ± to low/zero emission renewable and other sources ‡ Emission control technologies ± flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, particulate traps...

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Policy options
In the scenarios, technologies are excluded according to criteria of irreversibility, exposure to risk of large scale hazards, the lack of clear market costs, or if they do not work. Accordingly: ‡ new nuclear capacity is excluded because of irreversibility, lack of market cost because of insurance, and risk of large scale hazard. ‡ carbon sequestration through pumping CO2 underground is not deployed because it an irreversible technique that increases primary CO2 emissions, and the risks of accidental release in the long term are impossible to quantify reliably. It also may be argued that sequestration will diminish efforts towards energy efficiency and renewables. ‡ fusion is excluded because it does not work and would produce radioactive wastes. The challenge is to construct scenarios that do not use these options. Currently, hydrogen is not included in any scenario. This is primarily because of the low overall efficiency of producing hydrogen from electricity or gas and then converting it into motive power or heat: it wastes more primary fossil or renewable energy than using electricity as a vector. In the stationary sectors, it is better to use electricity, renewable and fossil fuels directly. In surface transport vehicles, an increasing fraction of demand can be met with electricity in hybrid electric/fossil fuelled vehicles. Hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is a distant prospect. If the production and utilisation efficiency of hydrogen improve, or other difficulties, such as electric vehicle refuelling are insurmountable, then hydrogen would be reviewed.

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Scenarios
With these classes of options and exceptions, the aim is to show that commonly agreed social, environmental and economic objectives can be achieved with low risk. Five scenarios combining the five classes of policy option in different ways have been simulated. Proceeding from scenario 1 to 5 results in decreased emissions and use of technologies or fuels that have irreversible impacts. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Base/Kyoto: base scenario Carbon15: medium levels of technical change Behaviour: behavioural change only Tech High: high levels of technical change Tech Beh: technical and behavioural change

The scenarios presented here are preliminary and for discussion because: ‡ recent historic data were not available at the time of scenario development ‡ many technical and economic aspects of the scenarios need a thorough review

Society Energy Environment SEE

The energy system: demand and supply options
n rgy d mands and sour s an b ink d in many ways. Th appropriate linkage depends on a complex of their distribution in space and time, and the economics of the technologies used.
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Society Energy Environment SEE

 

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Integrated planning
Energy planning should be integrated across all segments of demand and supply. If this is not done, the system may be technically dysfunctional or economically suboptimal. Energy supply requirements are dependent on the sizes and variations in demands, and this depends on future social patterns and demand management. For example: ‡ In 2040, what will electricity demand be at 4 am? If it is small, how will it affect the economics of supply options with large inflexible units, such as nuclear power? ‡ The output from CHP plants depends on how much heat they provide, so the contribution of micro-CHP in houses to electricity supply depends on the levels of insulation in dwellings. ‡ Solar collection systems produce most energy at noon, and in the summer. The greater the capacity of these systems, the greater the need for flexible back-up supplies and storage for when solar input is low. ‡ The scope for electric vehicles depends on demand details such as average trip length. Electric vehicles will add to electricity demand, but they reduce the need for scarce liquid fuels and add to electricity storage capacity which aids renewable integration. ‡ Electricity supply systems with a large renewable component require flexible demand management, storage, electricity trade and back-up generation; large coal or nuclear stations do not fit well into such systems because their output cannot easily be varied over short time periods. ‡ The amount of liquid biofuels that might available for air transport depends on how much biomass can be supplied, and demands on it for other uses, such as road transport. ‡ Is it better to burn biomass in CHP plants and produce electricity for electric vehicles, or inefficiently convert it to biofuels for use in conventional engines?

Society Energy Environment SEE

Models used for constructing scenarios
Some description and sample outputs are presented for the following models: ‡ SEEScen: Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model used for basic national energy scenarios across all sectors EleServe : Electricity system model used to study detailed operation of electricity system EST Energy Space Time model used to illustrate issues concerning time varying demands and renewable sources at geographically distant locations InterEnergy Energy trade model used to study potential for international exchanges of energy to reduce costs and facilitate the integration of renewable energy

‡ ‡

‡

More on the models may be found at: http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm

Society Energy Environment SEE

Technical basis: SEEScen: Society, Energy, Environment Scenario model
SEEScen is applicable to any large country having IEA energy statistics SEEScen calculates energy flows in the demand and supply sectors, and the microeconomic costs of demand management and energy conversion technologies and fuels SEEScen is a national energy model that does not address detailed issues in any demand or supply sector. Method ‡ Simulates system over years, or hours given assumptions about the four classes of policy option ‡ Optimisation under development
HISTORY INPUTS / ASSUMPTIONS IEA data Energy Population, GDP Other data Climate, insulation... ENERGY IMPACTS

Delivered fuel Delivered fuel by end use Useful energy

End use fuel mix End use efficiency
FUTURE

Socioeconomic Lifestyle change Demand End use efficiency End use fuel mix Useful energy Conversion Delivered energy

COSTS

Capital Running Supply efficiency Supply mix Distribution losses Conversion Primary energy Trade Emissions

Society Energy Environment SEE

Energy services and demand drivers
Demands for energy services are determined by human needs, these include ‡ food ‡ comfort, hygiene, health ‡ culture
M

GBR: TechLifestyle: Population
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

The drivers are assumed to be the same in all scenarios. The above drivers are simply accounted for in the model, but others are not, for example: ‡ Population ageing, which will result in increases and decreases of different demands ‡ Changes in employment ‡ Environmental awareness ‡ Economic restructuring More on consumption at: http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.ht m Society Energy Environment SEE
35 30 25 20 M 15 10 5

SHHPop_M GBR: TechLifestyle: Households

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

2050

Important drivers of demand include: ‡ Population increases ‡ Households increase faster because of smaller households ‡ Wealth, but energy consumption and impacts depend on choices of expenditure on goods and services which are somewhat arbitrary

0

Energy demand: food
Food consumption increases with population. Therefore: ‡ More biowaste for energy supply ‡ Less land for energy crops, depending on import fraction ‡ Land and energy use for food depends on food trade and factors such as the fraction of meat in the diet
GBR: TechHigh: Food

250

200

150 PJ 100 50 0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

Future demand: general considerations
Predicting the activities that drive the demands for energy is fundamentally important, but uncertain, not least because activities are partially subject to policy. ‡ Some demands may stabilise or decrease, for example: ± commuting travel as the population ages and telecommunications develop ± space heating as maximum comfort temperature levels are achieved Demands may increase because of the extension of current activities: ± heating might extend to conservatories, patios, swimming pools ± air conditioning may become more widespread ± cars might become heavier and more powerful ± as the population enjoys more wealth and a longer retirement, more leisure travel might ensue Or because new activities are invented, these being difficult to predict: ± new ways of using energy might arise; witness home computers, cinemas, mass air travel in the past; the future we may see space tourism

‡

‡

Basic activity levels are assumed to be the same in all scenarios, although in reality they are scenario dependent. For example, many activities are influenced by scenario dependent fuel prices - the purchase and use of cars, air travel, home heating. Furthermore, energy consumption in the services sector and industrial sectors are themselves dependent on basic energy service demands. For example: energy consumption for administering public transport or aviation is dependent on the demands for those services; the energy consumed in the iron and steel or vehicle manufacturing industry depends on how many cars are made, which is scenario dependent; the energy consumption of manufacturing industry depends on how much loft insulation there is houses. The effects of energy demands on economic structure and its energy consumption are not considered here. (This is rarely analysed in energy scenarios because the effects of these structural changes may be relatively small; and it is difficult to calculate them.) Society Energy Environment SEE

Future demand: activity projections
In these scenarios, the activity growth in all sectors is assumed to follow from population, household and wealth drivers. The activity projections are shown in the chart. The outstanding growth is in international aviation, a service the UK mainly exports.
B : chB h: ctivity

14 12 10 Ind x1990 8

6 4

2 0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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¦ ¥

¥¤ £ ¢

Ind:Iron and steel Ind:Chem/petrochem (inc feed) Ind:Heavy Ind:Light Agr: Oth: Ser: Res: Tra:Nat passenger Tra:Nat freight Tra:Int passenger Tra:Int freight

Domestic sector
The main options exercised: ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Clothing, heating system control and thermostat setting High levels of insulation and ventilation control Efficient lights and appliances Solar water heating, micro gas CHP and electric heat pumps are the main supply options Zoned heating and clothing to reduce average house temperature

Note that solar electricity production (e.g photovoltaic) is included under central supply, even though much of it would be installed at end users¶ premises.

Society Energy Environment SEE

Comfort temperature, clothing and activity
Appropriate clothing reduces energy demand and emissions. A slight improvement in clothing could reduce building temperatures. A degree reduction in average building temperature could reduce space heating needs by about 10%.
30 Cl t i le el

0.0 Nake 25 .3 i t .5 i t 20 .8 1. ical ical

15

1.3 Wa 10 1.5 Wa 1.8 5 2. ecial ecial

Acti it & Metab lic Rate (W/ 2)

Society Energy Environment SEE

Building use
Better control heating systems in terms of time control and zoning of heating can reduce average internal temperature and energy use.
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Society Energy Environment SEE

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Domestic sector: house heat loss factors
Implementation of space heat demand management (insulation, ventilation control) depends on housing needs and stock types, replacement rates, and applicability of technologies. Insulation of the building envelope and ventilation control can reduce house heat losses to minimal levels.
GBR: c Beh: W/oC : lements Ve

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

W/oC

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

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House: monthly space heating and cooling loads
Energy conservation technologies have these effects: ‡ Space heating demand is greatly reduced by insulation and other measures The potential growth in air conditioning depends on detailed house design and temperature control There is less seasonal variation in total heat demand
8.0 7.0 6.0 GJ/month 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 United Kingdom 2005 : TechLifestyle Scenario : House temperatures and heat flows Gross 40 35 30 25 20 15 Ambient temperature 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Equilibrium temperature, no heating/cooling Thermostat temperature oC Incidental gain Solar Heat Cool

‡

1.0 0.0

3.5 3.0

United Kingdom 2050 : TechLifestyle Scenario : House temperatures and heat flows

40 35 30 25 20 15 oC

Gross Incidental gain Solar Heat Cool Ambient temperature Equilibrium temperature, no heating/cooling Thermostat temperature

‡

2.5 2.0 GJ/month 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 5 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10

Society Energy Environment SEE

Domestic sector: useful energy services per household
‡ ‡ ‡ Space heating reduced, but not comfort Other demands eventually grow because of basic drivers Water heating becomes a large fraction of total, demand management requires further analysis

35 30 25 GJu/h 20 15 10 5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

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Society Energy Environment SEE

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Domestic sector: electricity use
Electricity demand is reduced because of more efficient appliances, including heat pumps for space heating.

500 450 400 350 300 PJ 250 200 150 100 50
1995

GBR

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W h_ W F z _ ig_ ig_ Di hW_ W W h_ W ight_ 2000 2015 2025 2035 2045 1990 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 ip_

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Society Energy Environment SEE

End use sectors: energy delivered to services sector
More commentary to follow.

H_ E_

500 400 300 200 100

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Society Energy Environment SEE

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End use sectors: energy delivered to industry sector
More commentary to follow.
2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 PJ 1000 800 600 400 200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 GBR: echBeh: Industry : fuel y sector

H

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

D H RT

D HRE

D HRS

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Transport
Options exercised: ‡ Demand management, especially in aviation sector ‡ Reduction in car power and top speed ‡ Increase in vehicle efficiency ± light, low drag body ± improved motor efficiency ‡ Implentation of speed limits ‡ Shift to modes that use less energy per passenger or freight carried: ± passengers from car to bus and train ± freight from truck to train and ship ‡ Increased load factor in the aviation sector ‡ Some penetration of vehicles using alternative fuels: ± electricity for car and vans ± biofuels principally for longer haul trucks and aircraft

Society Energy Environment SEE

Passenger transport: carbon emission by purpose

Commuting and travel in work account for 40-50% of emissions

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Society Energy Environment SEE

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Passenger transport: carbon emission purpose and by trip length
Carb n d o de em ss on (MtC) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 20 a 40 w k 60 80 N -w k I w k 100 120 140 160 180 200 C mu ative pr portion 100
%i w k %N w k

%t w k

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Stage ength (km)

Society Energy Environment SEE

Passenger transport use by mode trip length
Short distance car trips account for bulk of emissions.

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Passenger transport : potential effect of teleworking

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Society Energy Environment SEE

Re eduction on t otal carbon emi ion a enger t ran port from U Mini stage e ngt f te e w r ing substituti n ( i e s)

Passenger transport: carbon emission by mode of travel

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60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% R

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B s ai 150

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Society Energy Environment SEE

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Passenger transport: mode of travel by distance

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80%

60%

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20% Pr 0% 1 2 3 5 10 15 25 35 50 75 100 150 200

Society Energy Environment SEE

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Passenger transport: carbon emission by car performance
Car carbon emissions are strongly related to top speed, acceleration and weight. Most cars sold can exceed the maximum legal speed limit by a large margin. Switching to small cars would reduce car carbon emissions by about 40% in ten years. Switching to micro cars and the best liquid fuelled cars would reduce emissions by about 90% in the longer term.
25 Accelerati F el 20 S ee 200 15 150 10 UK s ee li it Petrol 50 iesel 0 25 35 45 gra 55 es Carb er k 65 75 85 250 300

100

5 Micro cars 0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Passenger transport: Risk of injury to car drivers involved in accidents between two cars
Cars that are big CO2 emitters are most dangerous because of their weight, and because they are usually driven faster. In a collision between a small and a large car, the occupants of the small car are much more likely to be injured or killed. The most benign road users (small cars, cyclists, pedestrians) are penalised by the least benign.
260 O2 %se ious 220 m 7 6 5 180 4 3 140 2 1 100 Sma Sma me um Me um La e u e ee 0 Risk inju 8

Society Energy Environment SEE

O2

Transport: road speed and CO2 emission
Energy use and carbon emissions increase strongly with speed. Curves for other pollutants generally similar, because emission strongly related to fuel consumption. These curves are only applicable to current internal combustion vehicles. Characteristics of future vehicles (e.g. urban internal combustion and electric powered) would be different. Minimum emission would probably be at a lower speed, and the fuel consumption and emissions at low speeds would not show the same increase.
Frac
600%

m

m m

2

km

500%

400%

Low speed emission Average conceals start/ stop congestion And car design dependent
M otorway

300%

200%

100%

0% 5 25 45 65 kph 85 105 125 145

Society Energy Environment SEE

w

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Car (D,> 2.0 , E R IV) Car (P,1.4 2.0 , E R IV) GV (D,R gid, E R IV) B (D,0, E R IV) Va (D, arge, E R IV) Mcycle (P,>750cc 4 , re)

Car (P,< 1.4 , E R IV) Car (P,> 2.0 , E R IV) GV (D,Ar ic, E R IV) Va (D, edium, E R IV) Mcycle (P,250 750cc 4 , re)

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Transport: road speed and PM emission
Fr
1000% 900%

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800% 700%

600% 500% 400%

300% 200%

100% 0% 5 25 45 65 kph 85 105 125 145

Society Energy Environment SEE

†

M otorwa

Ca ( , 2.0 , URO IV) Ca ( , 1.4 , URO IV) H V ( ,A ic, URO III) us ( ,0, URO III) Van ( ,medium, URO IV) Mc c e ( ,250-750cc 4-s, e)

Ca ( , 2.0 , URO III) Ca ( ,1.4 - 2.0 , URO IV) H V ( ,Rigid, URO IV) Van ( ,sma , URO IV) Mc c e ( , 250cc 4-s, e)

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Transport: road speed and NOx emission
Frac
600%

m

m mN x

km

400%

300% M otorway

200%

100%

0% 5 25 45 65 kph 85 105 125 145

Society Energy Environment SEE

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500%

Š ‰ ‡

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Car (D,< 2.0 l, 83 351) Car (P,1.4 2.0 l, 91 441) Car (P,> 2.0 l, E R IV) GV (D,Artic, 91 542 II) Va (D,large, 93 59) Va (P, mall, E R IV)

Car (P,< 1.4 l, 91 441) Car (P,> 2.0 l, 91 441) GV (D,Rigid, 88 77) Va (D,medium, 93 59) Va (P,large, E R III)

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Transport: road speeds
A large fraction (40-50%) of vehicles break the speed limits on all road types. This lawbreaking increases carbon and other emissions, and death and injury due to accident. Enforcing the existing limits, and reducing them, would significantly reduce emissions and injury.

Motorways Single cariageway 40 ph roads

ual carriageway 30 ph roads

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Brea ing li it %

w in Li g gh tg B oo se s/c ds oa ch es

M cy cl es

ar s

Society Energy Environment SEE

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Transport: aviation
Aviation is a special sector because: ‡ There is no near physical limit to growth as for land transport ‡ It has the most rapid growth in demand of any major sector ‡ Its emissions have particular impacts because of altitude ‡ Aircraft are already relatively energy efficient For these reasons, aviation is projected to become a dominant cause of global warming over the next few decades. The UK is a large exporter of aviation services, and fuelling this export will become perhaps the major problem in UK energy policy. Currently there is no proven alternative to liquid fuels for aircraft. Most aviation is international with special legal provisions, and so aviation (and shipping) can not be analysed in isolation from other countries. Aviation is discussed in detail in reports that may be downloaded at: http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm

Society Energy Environment SEE

Aviation: control measures
Aviation emission control measures can be classed under demand management, technology and operations.

Engine Airframe Technology Aircraft size

Freight Demand management

CONTROL MEASURES
Speed Altitude Load factor Operation

Business

Passenger
Leisure

Traffic control Route length

Society Energy Environment SEE

Aviation: effects of technical and operational measures
Behavioural measures (other than reducing basic demand) such as increasing aircraft load factor and reducing cruising speed are as important as technological improvement. These measures can be implemented faster than technological change, as the average aircraft operating life is about 30 years.
100%

D c re a s c r u is s

s ig n

C urre nt

90%

Im p ro ve airfram e
Imp ro ve existing turb o fa e gine

r ass ng r il m tre

T e c n l g ic a l im pr e m e nt
P ro p fa

80%

70%

Turb o p ro p /p ro p a re laces turb o a

60%

Fu l us

In crea se loa d fa ctor
50%

40%

30% 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1000

C ruis

s

(

)

Society Energy Environment SEE

–
O pe ra ti na l c a ng e

’ ‘  Ž Ž Ž

– –

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Aviation scenarios Aviation emissions can only be stabilised if all technical and operational measures are driven to the maximum, and the demand growth rate is cut by half. To reduce aviation emissions by 0% would require further demand reduction.
600

Carbon emission

tC) Busi ess s usual

500

Load factor Operati
400

al

Technology
300

All except emand Dem

200

All measures
100

0 1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport: passenger demand by mode and vehicle type
Demand depends on complex of factors: demographics, wealth, land use patterns, employment, leisure travel. National surface demand is limited by time and space, but aviation is not so limited by these factors.
GBR: e hBeh: P e er : L i t e I t: a : la e I t: a :Shi at: a :Shi

2500

2000

1500 Gp m

at: a : la e at: a : ail

1000
at: a :

500

at: a : ar at: a : cle

0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 at: a : i e

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport: freight demand by mode and vehicle type
The scope for load distance reduction through logistics and local production is not assessed. International freight is estimated.

900 800

GBR: TechBeh: Fre h : Loa d ance In :F :P ne

In :F e:S

700 600 500 Gk 400 300 200 100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 N :F e:P e N :F e:P ne

N :F e:S

N :F e: a l

Na :F e: DV

0

Na :F e:T u k

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport, national: passenger mode
A shift from car to fuel efficient bus and train for commuting and longer journeys is assumed. The scope for modal shift from air to surface transport is very limited without the development of alternative long distance transport technologies.

1.2

GBR: TechBeh: National : Passen er : Mode Nat:Pa :S i

1
Nat:Pa :Plane

0.8
Nat:Pa :Rail

%

0.6
Nat:Pa : u

0.4
Nat:Pa :Car

0.2
Nat:Pa :MCycle

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

Nat:Pa : ike

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport: national : freight mode
Shift from truck to rail. Currently, no assumed shift to inland and coastal shipping.
GBR: TechBeh: at onal : re ght : ode Nat Fre ane

1.2

1
Nat Fre ip

0.
Nat Fre ipe

%

0.6

0.4

Nat Fre Rai

0.2

Nat Fre LDV

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

0

Nat Fre ruck

Transport: passenger vehicle load factor
‡ ‡ Load factors of vehicles, especially aircraft, assumed to increase through logistical change. Vehicle load capacities (passengers/vehicle; tonnes/truck) assumed unchanged.
GBR: echBeh: assenger : Load actor Nat Pa Nat Pa Nat Pa

1

0.8

Nat Pa

%

Nat Pa

0.2

Nat Pa Int Pa 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Int Pa P ane

Society Energy Environment SEE

Ÿž— ˜ —

œ —˜ —

0.4

Nat Pa P ane ip

œ — ˜ —

0.6

œ › š— ˜ —
ar u

˜ ™— ˜ —

›— ˜ —

Ÿž— ˜ —

™— ˜ —

1.2

ike

yc e

ai

ip

œ —˜ —

Further analysis: electric vehicles
Electric (EV) or hybrid electric/liquid fuelled (HELV) vehicles are a key option for the future because liquid (and gaseous) fossil fuels emit carbon, will become more scarce and expensive and are technically difficult to replace in transport, especially in aircraft. Electric vehicles such as trams or trolley-buses draw energy whenever required but they are restricted to routes with power provided by rails or overhead wires. Presently there are no economic and practical means for providing power in a more flexible way to cars, consequently electric cars have to store energy in batteries. The performance in terms of the range and speed of EVs and HELVs is improving steadily such that EVs can meet large fraction of typical car duties; the range of many current electric cars is 100-200 miles. A major difficulty with EVs is recharging them. At present, car mounted photovoltaic collectors are too expensive and would provide inadequate energy, particularly in winter, although they may eventually provide some of the energy required. Because of these problems it may be envisaged that HELVs will first supplant liquid fuelled vehicles, with an increasing fraction of electric fuelling as technologies improve. Hydrogen is much discussed as a transport fuel, but the overall efficiency from renewable electricity to motive power via hydrogen is perhaps 50%, whereas via a battery it might be 70%. For this reason, it is not currently included as an option. If the efficiency difference were narrowed, and the refuelling and range problems of EVs are too constraining, then hydrogen should be considered further.

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport: passenger vehicle distance
A large reduction in road traffic reduces congestion which gives benefits of less energy, pollution and travel time.

450 400 350 300 250 G .k 200 150 100 50
1990 1995

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Veh cle d stance

Int Pas P ane LB Int Pas P ane K Int Pas Nat Pas ip_D ip_D

Nat Pas P ane_K Nat Pas Rai _E Nat Pas Rai _LB Nat Pas Rai _D Nat Pas Bus_E Nat Pas Bus_H2 Nat Pas Bus_CN Nat Pas Bus_LB Nat Pas Bus_D Nat Pas Car_E Nat Pas Car_H2 Nat Pas Car_LB Nat Pas Car_LPG Nat Pas Car_D Nat Pas Car_G 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Nat Pas Cyc_G Nat Pas Bike_

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Transport: freight vehicle distance
Some growth in freight vehicle distance. Vehicle capacities and load factors important assumptions

Int Fre

120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Int Fre

Nat Fre Pipe_E Nat Fre

Nat Fre P ane_K Nat Fre Rai _ E Nat Fre Rai _ D Nat Fre ruck_LB Nat Fre ruck_D Nat Fre LDV_E Nat Fre LDV_H2 Nat Fre LDV_LB 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Nat Fre LDV_D Nat Fre LDV_G

Society Energy Environment SEE

          ¤  ¤  ¡   ¡   ¡  £¢    £¢  £¢  ¡ 

                       

G .km

     

140

GBR: TechBeh: re ght : Veh cle d stance

Int Fre P ane_K ip_LB ip_D

ip_D

Transport: passenger: fuel per passenger km
Reductions in fuel use because of technical improvement, better load factors, lower speeds, and less congestion.
GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : uel per loa km Nat:Pas:Bike_S Nat:Pas:MCyc_G Nat:Pas:Car_G Nat:Pas:Car_

12 10 8 MJfuel/pkm 6 4 2 0

Nat:Pas:Car_LPG Nat:Pas:Car_LB Nat:Pas:Car_H2 Nat:Pas:Bus_ Nat:Pas:Car_E

Nat:Pas:Bus_LB Nat:Pas:Bus_CNG Nat:Pas:Bus_H2 Nat:Pas:Rail_ Nat:Pas:Bus_E

Nat:Pas:Rail_LB Nat:Pas:Rail_E Nat:Pas:Pla e_K Nat:Pas:S ip_ I t:Pas:S ip_ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

I t:Pas:Pla e_K I t:Pas:Pla e_LB

Society Energy Environment SEE

¦ ¦ ¥ § ¥ §

¥

¥

¥

¦

¦ ¦ ¦

Transport: passenger: delivered energy
Future passenger energy use dominated by international air travel.

2500

Int Pas P ane_K Int Pas ip_D Nat Pas ip_D

2000

Nat Pas P ane_K Nat Pas Rai _ E Nat Pas Rai _ LB

1500 PJ

Nat Pas Rai _ D Nat Pas Bus_E

Nat Pas Bus_H2 Nat Pas Bus_CNG

1000

Nat Pas Bus_LB Nat Pas Bus_D Nat Pas ar_E

500

Nat Pas ar_H2 Nat Pas ar_LB Nat Pas ar_LPG Nat Pas ar_D 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Nat Pas ar_G Nat Pas Nat Pas Bike_

Society Energy Environment SEE

ª ¨ ¬ ­¨ ¬¨ ¬¨ ¬¨ ¬¨ ¬¨ ¬¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ © ¨ © ¨ © ¨ ©¨ «ª¨ «ª¨ ©¨ ©¨

¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨ ¨

¨ ¨ ¨

GBR: TechBeh: Passenger : Del ered

Int Pas P ane_LB

y c_G

Transport: freight delivered energy
Freight energy use is dominated by trucks. The potential for a further shift to rail needs investigation.
GBR: TechBeh: reight : Delivere

800 700 600 500 PJ 400 300 200 100
1990 1995

I t:Fre:Pla e_K I t:Fre:S ip_LB I t:Fre:S ip_

Nat:Fre:Pipe_E Nat:Fre:S ip_

Nat:Fre:Pla e_K Nat:Fre:Rail_E Nat:Fre:Rail_

Nat:Fre:Truck_LB Nat:Fre:Truck_

Nat:Fre:L V_E

Nat:Fre:L V_H2 Nat:Fre:L V_LB 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Nat:Fre:L V_

0

Nat:Fre:L V_G

Society Energy Environment SEE

°

° ¯

° ° ° ° ° °

°

° ¯ ¯ ®

®

® ® ®

End use sectors: useful energy services
‡ ‡ Useful energy supply and services increase Growth in all end uses except space heating
GB : TechBeh: nerg : eful ool AC H W t rH Cooki g

4000 3500 3000 2500 PJ 2000 1500 1000 500
1990 1995

H<12 H>120 ight Pro W El qui 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Mot W

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Energy conversion: efficiencies
Preliminary graph showing efficiencies of energy conversion. Efficiencies greater than one signify heat pumps. Declining efficiencies are where the cogeneration heat fraction falls, and the electricity fraction increases

GBR: TechBeh: Efficienc

1.4 1.2 1 Efficienc 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Mot Proc H>120C H<12 C Cooking Water H Space H G_ L_ S_ Auto:Pipe ( H)_HH G_Bio L_Bio S_Bio G_Fos L_Fos S_Fos G_Fos L_Fos S_Fos G_ L_ S_ G_Fos L_Fos S_Fos G_ L_ S_ G_Fos L_Fos S_Fos Trans_EE Pump_E E_Wind E_Tide E_Wa e

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

³

± ± ²

End use sectors: energy delivered by sector
Delivered energy decreases because of demand management and energy conversion efficiency gains.

7000 6000 5000 4000 PJ 3000 2000 1000 0
1990

GB : Te hBeh: elivere : y e tor Sea:Int ir: Int t er inland Air: o Rail Roa : Freig t Roa : a Re i ential Service ot er Agriculture ig t Met Min 2010 2020 2005 2030 2040 2015 2025 2000 1995 2035 2045 2050 C e ical Iron and teel

Society Energy Environment SEE

End use sectors: energy delivered by fuel
Reduction in fossil fuel use through efficiency and shift to alternatives.
GBR: Tech ifestyle: Delivered : by fuel

8000 7000 6000 5000 PJ 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

H_Solar S_Bio L_Bio G_Bio S_CHP L_CHP G_CHP H_Pipe (DH) E_Ele S_Fo L_Avi je L_MotGa L_Ga Die L_LiqPeG

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

L_Fo G_Fo

Society Energy Environment SEE

Energy supply: electricity
Options exercised: ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Phase out of nuclear and coal generation ± some fossil (coal, oil, gas) capacity may be retained for security Extensive installation of CHP, mainly gas, in all sectors Utilisation of biomass waste and biomass crops Large scale introduction of renewable electricity ± wind, solar, tidal, wave

Electricity supply in the scenarios requires more analysis of demand and supply technicalities and economics, particularly: ‡ future technology costs, particularly of solar-electric systems such as photovoltaic ‡ demand characteristics including load management and storage ‡ renewable supply mix and integration

Society Energy Environment SEE

Energy supply: electricity : generating capacity
Capacity increases because renewables (especially solar) and CHP have low capacity factors. Some fossil capacity would perhaps be retained for back-up and security.
G R: TechBeh: Electricit : Capacit : GWe S Fos L FueOil G Fos N Nuc S Bio L Bio G Bio S MunRef E H ro H Geothe H Solar E E ave ind E Tide Pump E S Fos L Fos G Fos S 1990 2005 2010 2025 2030 2040 2050 2015 2035 2045 1995 2000 2020 G

180 160 140 120 GWe 100 80 60 40 20 0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Electricity: generation
Finite fuelled electricity-only generation replaced by renewables and CHP. Proportion of fossil back-up generation depends on complex of factors not analysed with SEEScen.
GBR: TechBeh: lectricity : Output : PJe S_Fo L_FueOil G_Fo N_Nuc S_Bio L_Bio G_Bio S_Mu Re E_Hydro H_Geot e H_Solar

1400 1200 1000 800 PJe 600 400 200 0

E_Wave E_Ti e E_Wi Pu p_E S_Fo L_Fo G_Fo S_ 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 L_ G_

Society Energy Environment SEE

Electricity: generation costs (excluding distribution)
Because of increased CHP and renewables, the fraction of capital and operation and maintenance costs increases and the fraction of fuel costs decreases

16 14 12 10 ¼/GJ 8

GBR: TechBeh: Generat on n t cost

CapPerYr

O

ota

6 4 2
FuInCost 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Electricity: scenario generation costs (excluding distribution)
Relative generation costs depend critically on future fuel prices, but in these scenarios the larger demand scenarios have higher electricity costs.

30

GBR: S narios: Generation unit cost Base/Kyo o

25
Behav our

20 ¼/GJ

15

arbon15

10
Te hH gh

5

1995

2000

2015

2025

2035

2045

1990

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

0

Te hBeh

Energy: primary supply
‡ ‡ Total primary energy consumption falls, and then increases Fraction of renewable energy increases, then falls
GBR: ec Be : Prim r H lar

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 PJ 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
1995

H Ge he H r

Wa e e

ef a Nuclear l qu 2000 2015 2025 2035 2045 1990 2010 2020 2005 2030 2040 2050 Ga

Society Energy Environment SEE

Fuel extraction
‡ ‡ Extraction of oil and gas tails off as reserves are depleted Biomass extraction increases
GBR: TechBeh: Fuel ex rac i n : Ou pu

8000 7000 6000 5000 P c 4000 3000

S

io

S Fos

L

uOil

2000 1000 0
2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1990 1995 G Fos

Society Energy Environment SEE

Fuel reserves
‡ ‡ Oil and gas reserves effectively consumed Large coal reserves available for strategic security

180000 160000 140000 120000 100000 PJ 80000

GBR: echBeh: Reserves

Nuc ear

Petro eu

40000 20000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

· ´

Natura ga

¶ ´

60000

´ µ

oa

´

Energy trade
Nuclear fuel imports decline; gas and oil imports increase and stabilise; some electricity export.

2500

GB : Te hBeh: Tra e Ga

2000

1500

iqui

1000 PJ
Soli

500

0
1990 2010 2020 2030 2005 2040 2015 2025 2035 2000 1995 2045 2050

uclear

-500
lec

-1000

Society Energy Environment SEE

Energy flow charts
The flow charts show basic flows in 1990 and 2050, and an animation of 1990-2050. The central part of the charts illustrate the relative magnitude of the energy flows through the UK energy system. The top section shows carbon dioxide emissions at each stage. The bottom section shows energy wasted and discharged to the environment. Please note that the scale of these charts varies. Observations: ‡ Energy services: ± space heating decreases ± other demands increase, especially motive power and transport ‡ Fuel supply ± increase in efficiency (CHP) ± increase in renewable heating, biomass and electricity ± imports of gas and oil are required ± electricity is exported

Society Energy Environment SEE

UK Energy flow chart: 1990
Trade nviron ent xtraction uel proce ing lectricity and heat
CO2

ector
CO2

Bio a

ood

Re G Re Re Re

xt G

Ga

olid

er G er er

xt olid

olid

Trd N

Nuclear

Nuclear

Oth G Oth Tra(nat) Tra(nat)

ueOil

xt

Refinery

i

i

Tra(int)

Wa te energy

Society Energy Environment SEE

Ç

È

È

ÉÈ

Å

Å

ÊÆÈ

Ç

Trd

Ind Ind lec Ind

lOnly

ÆÈÆ ÆÅÆ ÆÇ Æ

Ind G

ÀÃ

ÅË Ç Æ ÆË

À

È Ç Å Ç Ç

Ê

Â

Ë

Ç

¹

¾

SE CO

BR : TechBeh : elivered

½ ¼¼ »º Á

¸

ÉÈ

ÀÀ

¿

ËË Ì

ÈÆ Å

Å ÇÆ Ç

ÆÅ

¾

eful energy

Å

Ä Æ

À

¾

Mot W

Proc W H>120C H<12-C Water H pace H

pace AC Cool

UK Energy flow chart: Animation 1990 to 2050

Society Energy Environment SEE

UK Energy flow chart: 2050
Trade Environment Extraction Fuel processing Electricity and heat

Biomass

Trd_G

Ext_G H_Solar Ext_S Solid Trd_E ElOnly Wind Tide Wave Solar Wind Tide Wave Solar Waste CHPDHFuI Biowaste CHPDH_H Heat Auto Elec Solid

Biomass

Biomass proc

S_Bio L_Bio L_CHP

Trd_L

Refinery

Liq

Waste energy

Society Energy Environment SEE

ÑÐÏÎ Í
Gas G_CHP Liq

SENCO

GBR

Beh : Y2050 Delivered

Sectors
CO2

Useful energy

Food

Res_G_CHP Res_H_Solar Res_E_ Mot W Ser_G_CHP Ser_H_Solar Ser_E_ Auto_H Ind_G_ Ind_G_CHP Ind_H_Solar Ind_S_ Ind_E_ Ind_L_ Ind_L_CHP Oth_G_ Cooking Tra(nat) E Tra(nat) L Water H Space H Space AC Cool El equip Proc W Light H>120C

H<12-C

Tra(int) L

Environment
Often, the energy and environment debate concerns itself with routine, relatively easily quantified emissions such as CO2, and ignores the many other impacts of energy demand and supply, even though they may as important economically or socially, if only in the shorter term. There are particular problems concerning the environmental impacts of energy. ‡ The definition and precision of calculation of many impacts are poor for technical reasons. ‡ Future impacts depend on developments in technology, legislation and other controls. ‡ Some impacts are routine, such as CO2 emission; others, such as a nuclear accident, are not routine and have probabilities of occurrence and consequences that are impossible to calculate with any certainty. ‡ Some impacts are physical; others, such as the threat of attack on a nuclear facility, are not physical but can still have impacts. ‡ Some impacts are not directly associated with technical energy processes. For example, in the low emission scenarios, road traffic injuries and deaths would be reduced through measures such as less car travel and enforced speed limits. There would be further social benefits such as more equal access to transport, and disbenefits such as less car driving. ‡ The impacts are different in kind: gaseous, liquid, solid, radioactive, biological, visual, land take, etc. There is no objective method to weigh these against each other except through political processes. SEEScen presently calculates: ‡ Atmospheric emissions of CO2, and of SO2, NOx, PM and CO although these are imprecise ‡ Some other impacts such as the number of aerogenerators and the fraction of land area used for biomass production

Society Energy Environment SEE

Environment: carbon dioxide
Note the historical emission inaccuracy because of data. The TechBeh scenario has a decline in CO2 emission of about 80%, and then an increase, primarily because of aviation growth.

600

GBR: TechBeh: nvir nment : Air : CO2

Fue:Ext Fue:P o Ele:Ge Ele:Pum Ele:T a Hea:Pub Hea:Aut T a(i t :Sea:I t T a(i t :Ai : I T a( at :Othe i T a( at :Ai : Do T a( at : ail T a( at : oa : F T a( at : oa : P es: es Se :Se

500

400

Mt

300

200

100

Oth:oth I I :Ag :Lig :Met : he :I o

0
2020 2025 2000 2005 2010 2015 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1990 1995

I I I

Society Energy Environment SEE

Environment: CO2 emission by scenario
There is an eventual upturn in emissions as assumed demand growth overtakes technology and behavioural options.
GB : Scenarios: Environment : Air : CO B s /Kyoto

600 500 400 Mt 300 200

B haviour

arbon15

Te hHigh

100 0

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

Te hBeh

Environment: nitrogen oxides
BR: Te hBeh: A r : NOx Fue Ex Fue Pro E e Gen E e Pum E e Tra Hea Pub Hea Au Tra( n ) Sea In Tra( n ) Air In Tra(na ) O her i Tra(na ) Air Do Tra(na ) Rail Tra(na ) Roa Tra(na ) Roa Res Res Ser Ser Oho h Ind Agr Ind Lig 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Ind Me Ind Che Ind Iro F P

1800 1600 1400 1200 kt 1000 800 600 400 200 0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Environment: particulate matter

180 160 140 120 kt 100 80 60 40 20
1995

GBR: Te hBeh: Air : PM10

Fue: t Fue:Pro le:Ge le:Pum Ele: ra Hea:Pub Hea:Aut ra(i t):Sea:I t ra(i t):Air: I ra( at):Other i ra( at):Air: o ra( at): ail ra( at): oad: F ra( at): oad: P Re :Re Ser:Ser Oth:oth I d:Agr I d: ig

2000

2015

2025

2035

2045

1990

2005

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

0

I d:Met I d: he I d:Iro

Society Energy Environment SEE

Economics
In SEEScen, the direct annual costs of fuel, and the annuitised costs of conversion technologies and demand management are calculated. The model does not account for anything unrelated to fuels or technologies, including: ‡ indirect costs and benefits, such as the economic savings following a shift away from cars leading to reduced health damage because of accidents, toxic air pollution, and the value of reduced travel time ‡ macroeconomic issues relating to the energy trade imbalance or exposure to fluctuating international fuel prices Such economic impacts of energy scenarios can be of greater importance than direct costs. For example, the value of traffic related health injury and time lost in congestion is generally much greater than the costs of controlling noxious emissions from vehicles. International fuel prices are critical to the relative cost effectiveness of measures. It is probable that the UK would follow a µlow energy emission¶ path in parallel with other countries, at least in Europe. In such an international scenario, finite fossil and nuclear fuel prices will be lower than in a higher demand scenario. Thus the implementation of options affects the cost-effectiveness of those options - a circularity: ± the more renewable energy deployed, the cheaper the fossil fuels leading to an increase in the relative cost of renewables ± the more the consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels, the higher the prices for those, leading to an increase in the relative cost of fossil and nuclear energy

Society Energy Environment SEE

I A

20000 15000 10000 5000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

DEU

0

50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 PJ

ALL COUNTR E : TechBeh : Pri ar

GBR

ESP

I A

20000 15000 10000 5000

DEU

Society Energy Environment SEE

Ù

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0

Ø

25000

Ò

Ó

ÝÜ

ÛÚ

Fuel availability and price will depend on global and regional demand levels. SEEScen was used to model the five scenarios for the four largest energy consumers near the UK: France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Because the measures exercised are the same, the primary energy consumption of these countries varies in similar ways in the scenarios, although there are differences in detail. This illustrates how regional energy demand might vary according to policies, and it has consequences for energy prices.

50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 PJ 25000

ALL COUNTR E : Base/K oto : Pri ar

Ö×
GBR ESP RA

Ö

ÕÔ

International context

RA

G_Fo _Fo

25

20 ¼/GJ

_ i PeG _Ga Die _MotGa

10

_AviKje _FueOil _ ruOil

5

1995

2000

2015

2025

2035

2010

2020

2030

2040

2045

2005

1990

2050

S_Fo

G_Fo _Fo

¼/GJ

_MotGa

1995

2000

2015

2025

2035

2010

2020

2030

2040

2045

2005

1990

2050

Society Energy Environment SEE

S_Fo

Þ

0

áß

2

ß

4

ß

6

_AviKje _FueOil _ ruOil

Þ

ß

8

Þ ß

10

àß ß

12

Þ ß

14

_ i PeG _Ga Die

Þ

16

GBR: T chB h: Pric

Þ

0

Þ

áß

ß

15

Þ

Þ ß Þ ß àß ß ß ß â â â

International fuel prices are critical inputs to the economic analysis of scenarios. Fundamentally, costs in the long term are determined by the remaining amounts and marginal extraction costs of the reserves of finite fossil and nuclear fuels. Prices depend on costs and future demand-supply markets. It may be argued that if the UK pursues a µlow finite energy¶ path then it is likely that other countries will be doing the same, at least within Europe. The top chart shows a µhigh demand¶ price projection, the bottom a µlow demand¶ projection. These merely illustrate possible differences in trends. It may that the relative prices of gas, oil and coal will change. This requires further analysis.

30

GBR: Base/ yoto: Price

ã

Economics: fuel prices

Economics: TechBeh scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
The annuitised costs of each fuel, technology and demand management option are calculated for each of the end use and supply sectors. In the low demand scenario, the fraction of total cost due to converters (boilers, power stations, etc.) and demand management increases as compared to fuels.

140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000

GBR: TechBeh: conom cs : Country

M¼/a

o nversion

De 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

çæ

ä
anage

Fue

å

Economics: Base scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
In higher energy supply scenarios, the fraction of costs due to fuel increases because renewable energy and CHP constitute smaller fractions. One implication of this, in comparison with a lower demand scenario, is that economic security is degraded because of the sensitivity to prices and availability of imported, globally traded fuels.

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 M /a 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000
1990

GBR: Base/K oto: Economics : Countr

Fuel

Conversion

Dem Manage 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

Society Energy Environment SEE

Economics: total cost by scenario
The more secure, lower impact systems for providing energy services may not have higher costs than high demand and emission scenarios because more cost effective demand management is taken up. Also, fossil fuel prices will be lower because European/global demand will be lower (the UK will not, or cannot act alone).
GBR: cenarios: Economics : Countr Base Kyoto

200000 180000 160000 140000 120000 M /a 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000
1990

Behaviour

Carbon15

TechHigh

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

0

TechBeh

è

Economics: energy trade costs
The cost of increased imports of fossil fuels is partially balanced by electricity exports. Note that the costs of imports are positive and exports, negative.
GBR: echBeh: rade costs

14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 M¼/a

iquid

2000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0 -2000 -4000 -6000

Nuc ear

ec

Society Energy Environment SEE

ì

ìë

4000

o id

é

Ga

ìí

ê

Economics: scenarios: energy trade total cost balance
The energy trade cost deficit increases in higher energy consumption scenarios because imports are greater and fuel prices are higher

120000

GBR: Scenarios: Trade costs Ba e/Kyoto

100000
Be aviour

80000 M¼/a

60000
Car on15

40000
Tec Hig

20000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Society Energy Environment SEE

2050

0

Tec Be

Observations on scenarios: national energy
The scenarios are preliminary and could be improved with more recent data and sectoral analysis. However, the relative magnitudes of energy flows, emissions and costs are illustrative of the main problems, and possible solutions. The scenarios show that: ‡ Large reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions are possible without utilising irreversible technologies with potential large scale risks - nuclear power and carbon sequestration. ‡ Transport fuel supply is a more difficult problem than fuelling electricity supply or the stationary sectors which have many potential fuel sources. Transport is the most difficult sector to manage, because: ± demand management options are limited as compared to the stationary sector ± of growth, especially in aviation ± limited efficiency improvement potential as efficiency is already a strong driver in freight transport and aviation ± lack of alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for aviation ‡ The potential for the direct use of electricity as a transport fuel rather than the inefficient production and use of secondary fuels such as biofuels or hydrogen needs more exploration In all scenarios, under the assumption of continued growth in energy service demand, emissions increase in the longer term as the effects of known technologies are absorbed. Behavioural options are important, especially if nascent technologies do not become technically and economically feasible. Therefore analysis and speculation on the following might be useful: ± possible future socioeconomic changes and impact on energy service demands ± long term technology development

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Observations on scenarios: economics and environment
Economics ‡ The total cost of energy services may be less in low emission scenarios because of the cost effectiveness of demand management and efficiency as compared to supply. This assumes that in the future, as now, the UK energy system is not optimal in economic terms because of market imperfections which lead to inadequate investment in demand management and energy efficiency. ‡ The more the application of demand management and renewable energy, the less is the UK exposed to international fuel price fluctuations. ‡ Demand management and renewables reduce the UK balance of payments deficit for energy trade.

Energy use and emissions increase when presumed growth overtakes implementation of current technology options. In the long term, therefore demand management, service and renewable energy technologies will require further implementation. A particular need is to find substitutes for liquid fuelled aircraft for long distance transport.

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Observations on scenarios: national and international
The TechBeh scenario has a surplus of electricity; should ‡ less be generated? ‡ the surplus be used to substitute for fossil resources, e.g. ± to make transport fuels even if the process is wasteful? ± for heating and other uses not requiring electricity? ‡ the surplus be exported as trade for other fuels? It is not possible to develop a robust and economic UK energy strategy for the long term without consideration of international developments, for a number of reasons: ‡ the UK has transmission linkage with other countries; this is especially important for electricity if renewable sources in the UK meet a large fraction of total demand ‡ the availability of fuels for import depends on global demand ‡ there are international arrangements that constrain UK policy in terms of demand management and supply, for example, treaties concerning international aviation and shipping This leads to system dynamics and the international aspects of energy scenarios.

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Energy systems aspects: space and time

SEEScen has a main focus on annual flows, although it can simulate seasonal and hourly flows. Other models are required to analyse issues arising with short term variations in demand and supply, and with the spatial location of demands and supplies. Questions arising: ‡ Can the demands be met hour by hour using the range of supplies? ‡ What spatial issues might arise? Some aspects of this are explored and illustrated with these models: ‡ ‡ ‡ EleServe : Electricity system model for temporal analysis EST Energy Space Time model InterEnergy Energy trade model

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Electricity system: detailed considerations
Electricity demand and supply have to be continuously balanced as there is no storage in the transmission network, unlike gas. This balancing can be achieved by controlling demand and supply, and by introducing storage on the system (pumped storage) or near the point of use: heat and electricity storage (hot water tanks, storage heaters, vehicle batteries) can be used to store surplus renewable energy when it is available, so that the energy can later be used when needed. The EleServe Electricity Services model has these components: Electricity demand ‡ disaggregated into segments across sectors and end uses ‡ each segment with ± a temporal profile ± load management characteristic Electricity supply ‡ each renewable source with own temporal profile ‡ heat related generation with its own temporal profile ‡ optional thermal generators characterised by energy costs at full and part load, and for starting up Operational control ‡ load management by moving demands if cost reduced ‡ optional units brought on line to minimise diurnal costs The following graphs demonstrates the role that load management can play in matching variable demands to electricity supplied by variable renewable and CHP or cogeneration sources.

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Electricity : diurnal operation without load management

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Electricity : animated diurnal operation with load management

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Electricity : diurnal operation with load management
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Electricity : commentary
The electricity demand-supply simulation : ‡ shows how load management can alter the pattern of demand to better match CHP and renewable electricity generation. The residual demand to be met by generators utilising fuels such as biomass or fossil fuels, that can alter their output, is less variable and the peak is smaller. ‡ demonstrates the importance of demand patterns and technologies in strategies for integrating variable electricity sources ‡ indicates that large fractions of variable sources can be accommodated without substantial back-up capacity ‡ end use or other local storage could play a significant role, especially if electric vehicles are widely used as in some of the scenarios Further work is required on: ‡ data defining current and future demand technologies ‡ detailed electricity demand forecasts ‡ the feasibility of integrated control of demand and supply technologies, including the accuracy of prediction of hourly demands and renewable supplies over time periods of a several hours or days ‡ more refined optimisation

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Energy systems in space and time

For temporally variable demand and energy sources, what is the best balance between : ‡ local supply and long distance transmission? ‡ demand management, variable supply, optional or back up generation and system or local storage? These questions can be asked over different time scales (hour by hour, by day of week, seasonal) and spatial scales (community, national, international). The EST and InterTrade models have been developed to illustrate the issues and indicate possible solutions for integrating spatially separate energy demands and sources, each with different temporal characteristics.

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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST

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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST : animated

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A wider view of the longer term future
Wealthy countries like the UK can reduce their energy demands and emissions with cost-effective measures implemented in isolation from other counties, and in so doing improve their security. However, at some point it is more practical and cost-effective to consider how the UK can best solve energy and environment problems in concert with other countries. As global fossil consumption declines because of availability, cost and the need to control climate change, then energy systems will need to be reinforced, extended and integrated over larger spatial scales. This would be a continuation of the historical development of energy supply that has seen the geographical extension and integration of systems from local through to national and international systems. The development and operation of these extended systems will have to be more sophisticated than currently. Presently, the bulk of variable demands in rich countries is met with reserves of fossil and nuclear fuels, the output of which can be changed by µturning a tap.¶ When renewable energy constitutes a large fraction of supply, the matching of demands and supplies is a more complex problem both for planning and constructing a larger scale system, and in operating it.

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International electricity : demand
Further connecting the UK system to other countries increases the benefits of diversity, at the cost of transmission. The first chart shows the pattern of monthly demands for different European countries.

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The second chart shows the normalised diurnal demand patterns for some countries. Note that these are all for µlocal¶ time; time zone differences would shift the curves and make the differences larger.

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International electricity: supply; monthly hydro output
Hydro will remain the dominant renewable in Europe for some time. It has a marked seasonality in output as shown in the chart; note that hydro output can vary significantly from year to year. Hydro embodies some energy storage and can be used to balance demand and supply; to a degree determined by system design and other factors such as environment.

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Electricity trade
‡ ‡ An extensive continental grid already exists The diversity of demand and supply variations increases across geographical regions What is the best balance between local and remote supply?

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InterEnergy model ‡ Trade of energy over links of finite capacity ‡ Time varying demands and supply ‡ Minimise avoidable marginal cost ‡ Marginal cost curves for supply generated by model such as EleServe

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InterEnergy ± animated trade

Animation shows programme seeking minimum cost for one period (hour)

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Europe and western Asia ± large point sources
The environmental impact of energy is a global issue: what is the best strategy for reducing emissions within a larger region?

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World
There are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies: ‡ Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent ‡ Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy ‡ Predictable tidal energy income

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World: a global electricity transmission grid?
‡ ‡ Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage? Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism

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Security: preliminary generalities 1
Energy security can be defined as the maintenance of safe, economic energy services for social wellbeing and economic development, without excessive environmental degradation. A hierarchy of importance for energy services can be constructed: ‡ Core services which it is immediately dangerous to interrupt ± food supply ± domestic space heating, lighting ± emergency services; health, fire, police ‡ Intermediate importance. Provision of social services and short-lived essential commodities ower importance. Long-lived and inessential commodities ‡ Part of security planning is for these energy services to degrade gracefully to the core. The various energy supply sources and technologies pose different kinds of insecurity: ‡ renewable sources are, to a degree, variable and/or unpredictable, except for biomass ‡ finite fossil and nuclear fuels suffer volatile increases in prices and ultimate unavailability ‡ some technologies present potentially large risks or irreversibility

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Security : preliminary generalities 2
Supply security over different time scales ‡ Gross availability of supply over future years. The main security is to reduce dependence on the imports of gas, oil and nuclear fuels and electricity through demand management and the development of renewable energy. ‡ Meeting seasonal and diurnal variations. This mainly causes difficulty with electricity, gas, and renewables except for biomass. Demand management reduces the seasonal variation in demand and thence the supply capacity problem for finite fuels and electricity. Storage and geographical extension of the system alleviates the problem.

Security of economic supply. ‡ Demand management reduces the costs of supply. ± The gross quantities of fuel imports are less, and therefore the marginal and average prices ± The reduced variations in demand bring reduced peak demands needs and therefore lower capacity costs and utilisation of the marginal high cost supplies ‡ The greater the fraction of renewable supply, the less the impact of imported fossil or nuclear fuel price rise ‡ A diverse mix of safe supplies each with small unit size will reduce the risks of a generic technology failure Security from technology failure or attack. In the UK, the main risk is nuclear power. Security from irreversible technology risk. In the UK, nuclear power and carbon sequestration Environment impacts. All energy sources and technologies have impacts, but the main concern here are long term, effectively irreversible, regional and global impacts. The greater the use of demand management and renewable energy, the less fossil and nuclear, the less such large impacts. Society Energy Environment SEE

Electricity security
Demand management will reduce generation and peak capacity requirements as it : ‡ reduces total demand ‡ reduces the seasonal variation in demand, and thence maximum capacity requirements It has been illustrated how load management might contribute to the matching of demand with variable supply. This can be further extended with storage, control and interruptible demand. During the transition to CHP and renewable electricity, supply security measures could be exercised: etain some fossil fuel stations as reserves. Currently in the UK, there are these capacities: ‡ ± Coal 19 GW large domestic coal reserve ± Oil 4.5 GW oil held in strategic reserves ± Dual fired 5. GW ± Gas 25 GW gas availability depends on other gas demands ‡ Utilisation, if necessary of some end use sector generation. Currently in excess of 7 GW, but these plants are less flexible because they are tied to end use production, services and emergency back-up ‡ The building of new flexible plant such as gas turbines if large stations are not suitable Electricity trade with other countries can be used for balancing. There are geographical differences in the hourly variations of demands and renewable supply because of time zones, weather, etc. The strengthening of the link between France and the UK, and creation of links with other countries would enhance this option.

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Gas and oil security
The measures to improve oil and gas security are basically the same, diversify fuel sources and store fuels: ‡ Diversify supply sources ± Extension of the gas transmission system ± Develop LNG imports Increase storage ± Enlarge long term gas storage in depleted gas fields ± Increase strategic 90 day oil reserve as required by IEA

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