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methods
339 people?
25 27 29
OR?
67.8 people
25 26 27 28 29
Bin data
• Ok, but what if, instead the real data looked like
this:
Non-symmetric distribution within a bin
300 people
39 people
25 25.8 27 28.1 29
25.8*300+28.1*39=8835.9
Bin data
• What are we left with? We have to make
assumptions about the distribution of data within
bins, but we have no a priori way to determining
which is “best”, and with the understanding that
our output is dependent on our assumptions.
Bin data strategy
• State your assumptions clearly
• Easiest solution is to assume all members of the
bin share the mid-point value.
• If exact results are important enough, calculate at
least 3 ways and present all 3 results (sensitivity
analysis)
• You could chose all lower values and then all
upper values for upper and lower “bounds”
• Don’t believe standard deviation calculations
from bin data!
Back to age-sex pyramids
• Age-sex pyramids provide a visual representation
of population structure. Consider the following
three national level pyramids from the U.S.,
Bangladesh and Germany.
Age-Sex Pyramids
• You can also produce pyramids for population
forecasts, to show the underlying demographic
structure.
Constructing an Age-Sex Pyramid
1.2
1.1
1
Male/Female Ratio
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to 85
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 plus
Age Cateogy
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
1
0
to
4
5
to
9
10
to
14
15
to
17
18
to
19
20
ye
a rs
21
ye
a rs
22
to
24
25
to
29
30
to
34
35
to
39
40
to
44
45
to
49
50
to
54
55
to
59
60
to
61
62
to
64
65
to
66
67
to
69
MALE/FEMALE RATIO, UNITED STATES, 2000 CENSUS
70
to
74
75
to
79
80
to
85 84
an
d
ov
er
Demography – trend analysis
• Often, an analysis and visual presentations of the
demographic trends in a community can tell a
story and highlight significant planning issues.
• Recommended:
– Tufte, The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
– The Planner’s Use of Information
Trends – quantitative analysis
• One of the more common simple quantitative
analyses of past trends is to calculate “rates of
change” (works not just in demography)
• Rate formula:
X t +1 − X t
r=
Xt
Calculating Rates
• The population of a census tract in Montgomery
County grew from:
– 1990 population: 2371
– 2000 population: 3353
3353 − 2371
r= = 0.4142
2371
We read this as saying the population growth rate
from 1990 to 2000 was 41.42 percent
Growth rates example
• If the growth rate from 1990 to 2000 was 41.42
percent, what was the average annual growth
rate?
1
3353 10
g = −1 = 0.03526
2371
We read this as a 3.526 percent average annual growth rate.
Growth rates
• Calculated growth rates can be used for:
– Estimating population between two censuses
– Projecting population based on constant growth rate
assumption
Final word on growth rates
• If r is the rate of population growth, then a
population will double in
ln(2)/r years!
Population Projections and Forecasts
250
Persons (millions)
200
150
100
50
0
1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Year
Curve-fitting
• Step 2. Fit a curve.
y = a + bx
a=intercept, b=slope
Curves
• 2. Geometric
y = ab x
ln y = ln a + x ln b
Curves
• 3. “Power” (so called in Excel)
y = ax b
ln y = ln a + b ln x
Curves
Called a 2nd degree
polynomial because
• 4. Polynomial
highest exponent is 2
y = a + bx + cx 2
y = a + bx + cx + dx + ex + ...αx
2 3 4 n
Curves
• 5. Exponential
y = ae bx
• 6. Modified Exponential
y = c + ab x
Curves
• 7. Gompertz
x
y = ca b
Curves
• 8. Logistic
1
y=
c + ab x
Fitting curves to data
• See examples on Population Projections
Worksheet, “fittingcurves” with population data
from US.
– Graph data
– Fit curve
– Get equation
– Extrapolate
Bottom-up projections
• The most commonly used in planning is the
“cohort-component” method
• Cohort=age group
• Component=the three components of
demography (fertility, mortality, migration)
The Master Demographic Equation