Human Population and Environment

Syllabus Prescribed
Unit 7: Human Population and the Environment
‡ Population growth, variation among nations ‡ Population explosion ± Family Welfare Program ‡ Environment and human health ‡ Human Rights ‡ Value Education ‡ HIV/AIDS ‡ Women and Child Welfare ‡ Role of Information Technology in Environmental and human health ‡ Case studies.

The issue of numbers!
We started 20th century with <2 billion people and ended it with 6 billion and still counting We may reach 8.9 billion by 2050 ± virtually all increase in the developing countries which are already densely populated and straining to meet needs In industrial countries population almost stopped growing ± have only 20% of world population but account for 2/3rd world¶s energy use and for creation of pressure on water, forests, fisheries and other renewable resources What will happen at 9 billion population with a greater proportion striving to improve their standards of living and catching up with the developed world

The issue of numbers!
Population affects every environmental issue and it is impossible to achieve sustainability until population stability is achieved Demographic transition ± shift from high birth and death dates to low birth and death rates ± has brought stable populations to the industrialized world What should be done to bring the developing countries through this transition and have stable population

Human population expansion
Until the beginning of 1800s population increased slowly and variably with periodic setbacks In 1830 it reached 1 billion and took 100 years to reach 2 billion by 1930 Its next doubling was within 45 years (reached 3 billion by 1960 and 4 billion by 1975) By 1999 it reached 6 billion (reached 5 billion by 1987) and growing at the rate of 77 million per year According to UN projections world population may pass 7 billion in 2013, 8 in 2028, 9 in 2052 and finally level off at around 10 billion by end of 22nd century (declining fertility rates are assumed)

Why human population expanded
Slow and fluctuating population growth prior to 1800s was due to
± Prevalence of fatal diseases (smallpox, diphtheria, measles and scarlet fever) ± Epidemics of diseases (black plague, typhus, cholera, etc.) ± Famines High reproductive rates were almost balanced by high mortality

After 1800s population began growing exponentially due to
± Development of vaccination and immunization ± Starting of treatment of sewage and drinking water ± Discovery and use of antibiotics ± Improved nutrition All these resulted in spectacular reductions in mortality rates while birth rates remained high

Why human population expanded
Population growth rate peaked at 2.1% per year during 1960s and then started declining due to
± Total fertility rate decline - in 1960s it was 5 and since then declined to 2.8 ± But absolute number addition peaked in 1980s at 87 million per year and then started declining

Whether the earth can sustain the additional numbers
± Where will they live and how they are going to be fed, clothed, housed, educated and otherwise taken care off ± Will enough energy and material resources be available

Tremendous differences among nations
World countries are divided into 3 economic categories ‡ High income, highly developed, industrialized nations
± 964 million population (2001) ± Per capita national income: >$9,206 (average: $26,710)

‡ Middle income, moderately developed countries
± 2.7 billion population ± Per capita national income: $745 to $9,205 ($1,850 average)

‡ Low income, developing countries like India
± Population 2.65 billion ± Per capita national income: <$745 ($430 average)

Developed countries and developing countries (moderately developed and developing countries)

Tremendous differences among nations
Developed nations (with 16% population) control 81% world¶s wealth, while low income developing nations (with 41% population) control only 3.4% wealth
± A difference of 62 to 1 ± one should not forget about disproportionate wealth distribution within a nation ± Tremendous difference between the poorest of the poorest nation and the richest of the richest nation!

UNDP devised Human Poverty Index (HPI) on the basis of life expectancy, literacy and living standards for both low income and middle income nations
± Different criteria are used for HPI for the high income countries ± Despite this 10-15% of the people in developed countries are poor while the number is 45% in developing countries (1.2 billion live with <$1/day)

Tremendous differences among nations
In 2003, developed world population was growing at 0.1%/year and adding one million to world population ‡ In developing countries it was growing at 1.6% rate and adding 76 million (98% of world¶s population growth) Growth occurs when births outnumber deaths ‡ A total fertility rate of 2.0 can result in stable population ‡ Due to the following replacement level of fertility is 2.1 for developed nations and higher for developing nations
± Infant and childhood mortality ± some women do not reproduce

Tremendous differences among nations
Fertility rate (2003) in developed nations is 1.5 ± USA is exception with fertility rate of 2.0

Fertility rate is still averages at 3.1 for developing countries
Population of developing countries will continue to grow while in developed countries it will stabilize/decline
± 98% of the future growth is expected in developing countries ± Developing countries¶ share of population will rise from the present 84% to 90% by 2075

Problem of numbers
Expanding population sounds trouble for both environment and people (poverty) Populations of developing nations were rural & sustainable (supported by subsistence farming & natural ecosystems) Population increase changed the situation
± Resulted in private ownership of land - specially in countries where collective agriculture was practiced ± Land reforms unsuccessfully tried to tackle the problem of inequities prevailed in land ownerships

Problem of numbers
‡ Agriculture got intensified and traditional subsistence farming is replaced by unsustainable modern agriculture
± land degradation, desertification and decreasing productivity have been the consequences

‡ New lands (under natural ecosystems and not suitable for agriculture) were unsuccessfully opened for agriculture ‡ People migrated to cities resulting in urban sprawl and slums (dens for illicit activities and infested by malnutrition and diseases like malaria and HIV/AIDS)
± Impoverished women and children in rural areas and street children in cities

‡ Environmental refugees and migrations from civil wars and ethnic prosecution are on increase

Problems in addition to numbers
IPAT formula to account for human factors contributing to environmental pollution and depletion of resources
‡ By Paul Ehrlich and John Holdren ‡ Environmental impacts (I) depend on 3 factors: population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T)

I=PxAxT High level of technology and affluent life styles of industrialized countries caused very large impact despite small number
‡ An average American places 20 times more demand on earth¶s resources than an average Bangladeshi ‡ Major world pollution problems (depletion of ozone layer, global climate change and accumulation of toxic wastes) are due to the affluent life styles ‡ US with 5% of world population is responsible for 24% of the GHG emissions

Problems in addition to numbers
Consumption, affluence, damaging technologies and rapidly increasing wastes need addressing for sustainability Practicing environmental stewardship can moderate to a large extent the environmental impacts
± Attention to wildlife conservation, pollution control, energy conservation and efficiency, recycling, etc.

IPAT formula might be modified to
I = (PAT)/S S is stewardly concern and practice

Sustainability demands addressing:
± Population (must stabilize) ± Consumption (must decrease) ± Stewardly action (must increase) ± use of technology appropriately is needed

Problem of Affluence
Affluence sounds trouble for the environment and for the people from developing countries Wealthy countries consume most of the resources (mostly from developing countries)
± globalization added fire to this ± lead in per capita consumption of most commodities

‡ World¶s wealthy 20% population is responsible for 86% of consumption and 80% of world trade
± USA with 5% of population generates 24% of CO2

‡ Affluence enables these to cleanup their own immediate environment by transferring wastes and polluting activities beyond their boundaries

Problem of Affluence
Because of affordability developed countries could
‡ Conserve and protect their local environment and natural ecosystems from pollution and degradation ‡ Protect their agricultural and industrial systems ‡ Ensure better health to their populations by safe drinking water, sanitation and waste management

Aging populations of wealthy countries increased the demand for immigrated younger workers
‡ Perception of improved well-being is luring people from developing countries to migrate to wealthy countries ‡ But suffer from the prejudice against foreigners

Population profiles
A bar diagram showing proportion of males and females at each age group for a given population
± It is a snapshot of population at a given time ± Each bar indicates present state of a cohort of babies added to population during a given period in the past ± Periods of baby booms & busts can be identified, and even baby boom echos can be identified

‡ Population profile can provide useful information for planning for future demands of human populations Population projections are made on the basis of
± Birth rates, death rates and migrations - assumptions are made about future birth & death rates and about migrations and used ± Current population profiles

Life tables
Mortality and natality varies greatly with age Complete picture of mortality patterns in a population can be shown by life tables
± Gives number out of a given population (1000) survive after regular time intervals ± Age specific natality (offspring per female during the age interval) and male-female ratio for different age intervals can also be added to these tables

Life tables includes following columns:
± Age intervals ± Number of deaths in the age interval from the 1000 individuals born ± Number surviving at the beginning of the interval from the 1000 individuals born

Using the information of the life tables one can find out net reproductive rate of the population

Survivorship Curves
Plotting the number surviving at the beginning of each age interval against age on a semilog plot gives this curve These for humans are convex (death rate is low until near the end of the life span) Shape of the survivorship curve is an indication of status of the population
± Denser population have more concave curves ± Poor public health services, poor drinking water and sanitation conditions make initial leg of the curve concave ± Environmental pollution and stressed environment deteriorate the quality of life for individual and maximum or physiological longevity decreases

Population projections for developed countries
± Graying of the population (less than 20% are <15 years age) ± Declining population ± Italy is example and whole Europe is on the trajectory of population decline ± May face migration crisis ± for maintaining the aging population immigration levels will have to be risen

Population projections for developing countries
± Except in china (1.7) fertility rates are high (3.5) ± Population profiles have pyramid shape ± Population momentum is the characteristic - Population will continue to grow for few more decades even after the fertility rate is brought to replacement levels ± Population is exceedingly young (40-50% is below 15 years age) ± Population growth can easily cancel out the economic development efforts

Demographic transitions
Demographic transition from primitive population stability to modern population stability is happening in developed countries ‡ There is need to ensure that this transition happens in developing countries also Primitive population stability of high birth rates were offset by high infant and childhood mortality has transitioned to a modern population stability of low infant and childhood mortality are balanced by low birth rates ‡ Epidemiologic transition: During primitive population stability CDR was high (>40) - receding fatal diseases, epidemics and famines reduced CDR to ~11 - now most people in developed countries die from cancer, cardiovascular diseases and other degenerative diseases ‡ Fertility transition: CBR in the developed countries declined from a high of 40-50 during primitive population stability to 8-12 of the modern population stability due to industrialization, economic development and social modernization Economic development and social modernization has been observed to bring about the desired demographic transition

Demographic transitions
Demographic transition includes four phases ‡ Phase-1: phase primitive population stability with high CBR offset by high CDR ‡ Phase-2: phase of declining CDR but high CBR and accelerating population growth ‡ Phase-3: phase of declining CBR and decreasing rate of population growth ‡ Phase-4: phase of modern population stability characterized by low CDR and CBR

Demographic transitions
Epidemiologic and fertility transitions did not occur at the same time ± latter was delayed by a few decades and resulted in rapid population growth Developed countries already entered into phase-4 while developing countries are still stranded in the mid phases (phase-2 & 3) Population doubling time for developing countries is 37 years while it is 700 years for the developed countries and global average is 54 years For India it is 41 years and for Germany and Italy it is can not be defined (declining population) Pace of transition is not same for all developing countries and pace of edidemiologic transition is not same as that of fertility transition

Demographic transitions
Some believe that speeding up of economic growth can hasten demographic transition
‡ Economic growth did not happen over night
± Economic growth in developed countries could become possible by migrations, colonialism and industrialization ± For many developing countries it has been very slow ± In many countries population growth & growing resource demands are not allowing economic growth

‡ Affluent life styles of developed nations can be absurd and stressing on biosphere in the case of developing nations ‡ Demographic transition only showed correlation with economic growth but the latter is not a necessary condition for the former
± Kerala state is best example

The case of India
Since Independence India experienced tripling of its population and its population is currently growing at 18 million/year rate
± Fertility rate is 3.2 ± Infant mortality is 69/1000 ± Average life expectancy is 63 years ± Caught in the middle stages of demographic transition

Annual per capita income is $480
± 1/3rd of the population is below the poverty line ± 50% of its children are undernourished ± 50% of adults in India are illiterate ± Economic growth can possibly not be the strategy for demographic transition

The case of Kerala
Fast moving towards modern stability phase of demographic transition
± Fertility rate is 1.8 (3.2) ± Infant mortality is 12/1000 (69/1000) ± Average life expectancy is 71 years (63 years) ± Literacy rate is 95% (50%)

Kerala is a poor state by every economic measurement
± Despite it achieved the fertility rate drop in just 2 decades ± Demographic transition has not been through economic growth, but through social modernization
Strong public commitments to health care and education relatively equitable land distribution efficient food distribution disappearance of cast system

Realizing demographic transition without getting trapped in poverty
Poverty and development are threats to the environmental health and not allowing sustainable development Population growth must be dealt with for making progress in reducing poverty and for economic development Concentrating on economic development for demographic transition may work if it is linked with reduction of poverty With declining birth rates (nations of phase-3 transition), working age population (15-65 years age group) increases and dependency ratio declines Nations can use this temporary 1 time window of opportunity for economic growth without trapping in poverty South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brazil exploited this opportunity and achieving demographic transition Can the South Asian nations (India) which are entering into this window of opportunity, exploit this opportunity

High fertility and poverty are linked
Poverty-environmental degradation-high fertility rates drive one another in a vicious cycle Poor in developing countries have larger families due to
‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Securing one¶s old age High infant and childhood mortality Considering children as economic asset (helping hands) Not giving importance to (specially girl) child education
± (not considered necessary in the subsistence agriculture society and schooling as economic liability)

‡ Status of women
± (discouraged or barred from obtaining high education, pursuing many careers and owning business or land)

‡ Non-availability of contraceptives (if not too expensive)
± women want to delay next child or do not want any more ± 12% increase in conceptive use translates into one less child

Alternatives to economic development for achieving demographic transition
Industrialization and economic reduced fertility rates through ‡ Increasing the cost of raising children ‡ Providing pensions and social security system for old age ‡ Creating educational and career opportunities for women ‡ Providing free and unrestricted access to inexpensive contraceptives ‡ Ensuring adequate health care that lowered infant and childhood mortality Relatively older age marriages also reduced fertility rates If all these contributing factors can be ensured by means other than economic development desired demographical transition can be achieved as achieved in Kerala

Social modernization: a new direction for demographic transition
For demographic transition developing nations should place emphasis on
± Improving education (specially literacy ± to read, write and do simple calculations, and education of girls and women) ± Improving health (specially lowering infant and child mortality) ± good nutrition and hygiene ± Making family planning accessible ± Enhancing income through employment opportunities ± Improving resource management and reversing environmental degradation

Improving education
Refers to basic literacy (learning to read, write and do simple calculations) An important component of wealth of a nation
± Empowers people with ability to understand information from print on various economic and social aspects

Though very important, women education is considered not important in developing countries
± Women bear children and provide nutrition, childcare, hygiene and early education ± Illiteracy is very high among poor women (50-70%)

Improving education
In view of HIV/AIDS and other STDs, premarital sex, unplanned pregnancies, births outside the wedlock, unsafe abortions sex education is considered must Investing in children education returns great dividends
± In 1960 South Korea and Pakistan had same population growth (2.6%) but different school enrolments (94 & 30%) ± In 25 years it resulted in Korea¶s economic growth 3 times to Pakistan¶s and population growth just 0.8% (against 2.1%)

Expanding population is making school systems and transporting systems overwhelming

Improving health
Refers to basics nutrition & hygiene to reduce gap between developing and developed nations in infant mortality ± 64/1000 against 7/1000 ‡ Rural health through rural health centers is desired ‡ Focus should be on women¶s reproductive health and infant health

Women¶s reproductive health services should focus on
± Prenatal care, safe child birth and post natal care ± Information and services pertaining to contraception ± Sex education ± specially to adolescents ± Prevention and treatment of STDs ± Abortion services and care afterwards ± Elimination of violence against women, sexual traficking, etc. ± Additional health services ± diagnosis and treatment for diseases like breast cancer and reproductive tract cancer

Family Planning
Critical component of women¶s reproductive health care Family planning agencies enable people to plan their family size through counseling and educating people
± regarding human reproduction, hazards of STDs and benefits and risks of various contraceptive techniques ± on achieving best possible pre and post natal health for mother and child ± to avoid high risk pregnancies (pregnancies of too young and too old women and pregnancies that closely follow a previous one)

‡ help people to avoid unwanted pregnancies (abortions are discouraged for use to avoid the unwanted child ‡ Provide contraceptives and treatment after instructing about all the alternatives

Family Planning
Goal is to ensure that all those who want/need reproductive health services are actually have access
± In developing countries the unmet needs of reproductive health services range between 7-50% ± 150 million women do not have access - their plans to space children and to limiting family size are affected

Countries implemented effective FP experienced most rapid decline in fertility rate (population growth in Thailand is reduced from 3.1% in 1971 to current 0.8%) Poor depend on family planning agencies for information on contraceptives and related materials and for treatment Family planning agencies are supported by a combination of donations, government funding and client payments

Family Planning
According to WHO
± 210 million become pregnant each year and 46 million of these resort abortion and 20 million are unsafe ± 80,000 women (95% of these from developing countries) die from unsafe abortions

Lack of family planning education and services result in more unplanned pregnancies and recourse to abortions
± Emergency contraception methods (preventing pregnancies shortly after unprotected sex) and non-surgical alternatives to early abortions are quite effective

µPlanned Parenthood¶ is regarded as the best known family planning agency of the world and UNFPA is another
± UNFPA combines family planning services with maternal and child health care and emphasizes expansion of services to rural and marginal urban areas

Employment and Income
Employment and income at household level, specially of poor, is important for brining down fertility rate ‡ Poor have trouble in getting start-up capital - the poor and women are considered as high credit risks
± Our banking systems disfavour microlones over short periods ± Women are denied credit because of gender discrimination ± When women borrow money beneficiaries are the children and the household

‡ Grameen Bank (Bangladesh) of Muhammad Yunus provides microloans (<$67) for short-term ‡ Oxfam and Freedom from Hunger have adopted the concept of the microlending of the Grameen Bank
± Freedom from Hunger combines lending with problem solving education (Credit with Education Program)

Improving resource management and reversing environmental degradation
Poor depend on local ecosystems (forests, etc.), natural resources (water, land, etc.) and on marginal lands of high ecological sensitivity for living
± 2 billion people depend on biomass fuels gathered from natural areas for meeting cooking and heating needs

Proper management of local ecosystems and natural resources and ensuring legitimate access to the local poor communities are essential for reducing fertility rates
± Living standards of the poor can be raised ± Reversal of environmental degradation and resource conservation can be ensured

Empowering the poor to manage the local community owned (public or government) lands and resources is important

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