You are on page 1of 60

State of New Jersey

New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU)

An Advanced Atmosphere/Ocean Assessment Program: Reducing the Risks Associated with Offshore Wind Energy Development As Defined by The NJ Energy Master Plan and The NJ Offshore Wind Energy Economic Development Act
Principal Investigators: Scott Glenn, Sc.D. and Rich Dunk, Ph.D., CCM Team Members: Josh Kohut, Louis Bowers, Greg Seroka, John Kerfoot, Lisa Ojanen, Ethan Handel Hi-Res Weather Spatial
Model Validation Data Wind Power Statistics

• Ecological baseline studies of offshore wind power already performed • Avian species • Fisheries • Marine Mammals • Sea turtles

• This project will perform physical baseline study

NJDEP Ecological Sensitivity and AWS Truewind Resource Map

Risks
1. Wind farm design:
• • What is the optimal spacing of wind turbines? When is the best time to install planned and future wind turbines? When do you schedule maintenance? How do you forecast power for the day-ahead market? Where do we site future wind turbines?

1. Installation:

1. Operation:

1. Planning:

We will develop an improved weather model and spatial datasets for:

Risk reduction
90 m Annual Wind Speed (m/s) and Direction from RU-WRF

1. Design and installation of existing wind farms 2. Comparison with ecological studies for siting of future wind farms 3. Future operations and maintenance of wind farms 4. More accurate day-ahead forecasts for the energy market

Why do we need a better NJ Sea Breeze atmosphericSeasonal Sea Surface Temperature model?

monitoring and modeling will provide the best estimates of offshore wind along the coast of New Jersey.

Large-Scale and Small-Scale Our experience with both atmospheric and oceanographic Offshore Wind

Infrared Satellite

Weather Radar

RU-WRF Model 2km Simulation

Operational Mesoscale Modeling with RU-WRF IMCS RU-WRF has
been proven to be a highly successful and trusted tool in the prediction of day-today, severe, and offshore weather. RU-WRF has been used to forecast dayto-day and severe weather conditions for PSEG for more than seven years. The model has been used for oceanographic projects funded by the Navy, NSF, etc.

Operational Mesoscale Modeling IMCS RU-WRF was thewith RU-WRF first operational weather model (US Gov. or
otherwise) to accurately predict the path of Tropical Storm Ernesto through the Middle-Atlantic States in 2006.

Operational Mesoscale Modeling with RU-WRF
Capability of Real-time Energy Forecasts •Energy Yield – Turbine by Turbine •Wake Loss •Severe Weather Outage • Tropical Storms • Nor’easters • Thunderstorms/lightning • Ice Accretion Inaccessibility due to high seas and winds • Real-time • Construction • Climatological

Wind Pow r e

m/s

Sea Breeze Development

Infrared Satellite

RU-WRF Model Simulation

Sea Breeze Development
Neutral Case

Infrared Satellite

RU-WRF Model Simulation

Sea Breeze Development
Upwelling Case vs. Neutral Case SST Vertical Cross-Section, 39.8° N

Temperature °C

meters

Temperature °C

cation of Sea Breeze Front at 100 meters Upwelling SST Neutral SST Upwelling SST Sea Breeze ~ 8.6 km Sea Breeze @ 100 m Sea Breeze @ 100 m farther west than Neutral Case SST 74.05° W 73.95° W

NJ Sea Breeze Event

Wind Speed [m/s]

RU-WRF Model 2km Simulation

NJ Sea Breeze Cross Section

kilometers

Wind Speed [m/s]

Scope of Work Details
1. High resolution, microscale model resolving sea breeze 2. High resolution boundary conditions to resolve upwelling centers 3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontal wind distributions at the microscale 4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites 5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to populate database and calculate hourly statistics by month

Proposed WRF domain
• 2 km horizontal resolution over NY Bight • 0.67 km horizontal resolution over study area Model will run in real-time, for precise comparison to onsite met towers Data will be extracted from the model at an array of grid points, representing locations 5 miles, 10 miles, 15 miles, and 20 miles offshore at 10 mile intervals northward

Scope of Work Details
1. High resolution, microscale model resolving sea breeze 2. High resolution boundary conditions to resolve upwelling centers 3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontal wind distributions at the microscale 4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites 5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to populate database and calculate hourly statistics by month

Land Use: USGS 24category

WRF Boundary Outer Conditions SST: boundary
conditions
(incl. soil moisture): high

high res. 1km 14-day composite product (MODIS, etc.)

res. 4km NAM

High res., nested RUWRF: 10-20m near surface vertical res.

Scope of Work Details
1. High resolution, microscale model resolving sea breeze 2. High resolution boundary conditions to resolve upwelling centers 3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontal wind distributions at the microscale 4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites 5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to populate database and calculate hourly statistics by month

Rutgers University - Coastal Ocean Observation Lab
Observatory Operations & Education Center

CODAR Network

L-Band & X-Band Satellite Receivers

3-D Nowcasts & Forecasts

Glider Fleet

Future Medium Range Network

CODAR Electronics

Combined Transmit/Receive Antenn

Mobile Equipment Setup for Port of Miami

Enhanced Hi-resolution HF radar Coverage

Horizontal Resolution: 6 km Temporal Average: 3 hours Horizontal Resolution: 1 km Temporal Average: 1 hour (or less)

HF Radar Derived Linear Wind Model
Current Transient [U'] (cm/s)

Wind Transient [W'] (cm/s)

• •

Rotate wind vectors according to complex correlation Calculate the slope and intercept of best fit line U'c(x,y,t) = slope(x,y)*W'(t)

Scope of Work Details
1. High resolution, microscale model resolving sea breeze 2. High resolution boundary conditions to resolve upwelling centers 3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontal wind distributions at the microscale 4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites 5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to populate database and calculate hourly statistics by month

Coastal/Offshore Monitoring
Meteorological Tower Meteorological Buoy Offshore vertical LIDAR

Coastal/Offshore Scanning LIDAR

Infrared Satellite

Coastal Radar (CODAR)

Scope of Work Details
1. High resolution, microscale model resolving sea breeze 2. High resolution boundary conditions to resolve upwelling centers 3. Map surface currents to confirm horizontal wind distributions at the microscale 4. Vertical validation from monitoring sites 5. Run for a year over a sea breeze season to populate database and calculate hourly statistics by month

Virtual Meteorological Tower Output at 48 locations
12x24 23000000 22002300 21002200 20002100 19002000 18001900 17001800 16001700 15001600 14001500 13001400 12001300 11001200 10001100 09001000 08000900 07000800 06000700 05000600 January February 6.83 6.78 6.66 6.44 6.4 6.18 5.86 5.89 6.05 6.6 6.45 6.51 6.37 6.25 6.23 6.34 6.76 6.82 6.84 7.22 7.39 7.3 7.15 6.93 7.14 6.91 7.06 7.12 7.15 7.19 7.37 7.09 6.95 7.14 6.96 7.09 7.11 6.74

Example of wind speed (m/s) at tower er
7.67 7.5 7.02 6.93 6.73 6.62 7.03 7.66 7.78 8.1 8.01 7.44 7.07 6.83 6.8 6.44 6.16 6.22 6.51 5.74 5.83 6 5.85 5.49 5.58 5.84 6.17 6.52 6.68 6.57 6.63 6.3 6.38 6.34 5.96 5.55 5.57 6.08 7.01 7.07 6.66 6.36 6.08 6.22 6.72 6.83 6.98 6.95 7.04 6.82 6.61 6.39 6.12 5.55 5.56 5.88 6.73 6.5 6.32 6.02 5.65 5.52 5.55 6.09 6.46 6.41 6.32 6 5.54 5.07 4.85 4.5 4.44 4.21 4.39 5.64 5.55 6.15 6.34 6.41 5.69 5.32 5.65 5.96 6.18 6.01 5.79 5.4 4.61 4.07 3.81 3.69 3.69 4.03 5.03 5.93 5.56 5.63 5.62 5.27 4.83 4.82 5.39 5.58 5.33 5.53 5.13 4.91 4.36 3.91 3.82 3.74 4.46 5.5 6.3 6.05 6.01 5.71 5.48 5.3 5.66 5.87 5.87 5.72 5.53 5.38 5.44 5.48 5.33 5.34 6.04 6.43

March

April

May

June

July

August

Septemb October Novembe Decembe r r 5.81 6.79 6.78 7.23 6.72 6.49 6.36 6.48 6.36 5.74 5.59 6.12 6.33 6.45 6.33 6.31 6.27 5.83 5.4 6.54 7.33 7.36 6.68 6.66 6.5 6.67 6.22 6.17 6.09 6.44 6.4 6.7 6.72 6.76 6.85 6.54 6.41 6.94 7.26 7.2 6.68 6.86 6.7 7.02 7.31 6.92 6.82 7.44 7.63 7.84 7.7 7.51 7.25 6.65 6.95 6.93 6.88 7.37

Virtual Meteorological Tower Output at 48 locations
Example of wind speed (m/s) at tower

Wind Power Production (m3/s3)

Wind Speed Anomaly (m/s)

Wind Power Production Anomaly (m3/s3)

Deliverables
1. Weather analysis database 2. Surface current database 3. Validation study a. Use our horizontal data plus OSW developers’ vertical data 4. Summary statistics

RU-WRF High-Resolution Wind Resource Analysis
Lines A-L spaced 10 nm apart, South/North along NJ coastline Points along lines spaced 5 nm apart, West/East along NJ coastline Array 12 x 4 throughout the coastal waters out to 20 nm Wind climatology to be conducted at 48 Virtual Met Tower locations Results made available via GIS platform

5 nm

10 nm

Meteorological Tower vs. Model Virtual Meteorological Tower The Virtual Met
Tower can allow for additional variables to be calculated such as temperature, air density, turbulence, potential turbine icing, and blade swept area wind shear.

Meteorological Tower provides data at instrumented heights at a single location

Virtual Meteorological Tower provides data any desired height at any location

Virtual Meteorological Tower Output at 48 locations
Wind speed data at any desired height above the water surface on hourly, daily, monthly, annual, and long-term temporal scales.

Wind Speed Rose (blue) and Energy Rose (red) – Crucial for determining turbine layout for energy optimization and wake impact.

Long-Term Assessment of Energy Loss Long-term estimates of turbine ice loss, extreme wind, inaccessibility to due to Extreme and high seas. Conditions maintenance due to weather

Tasks
1. Configure/set-up high res., nested RU-WRF
a. Optimize physics, microphysics schemes b. Optimize boundary conditions (high res. SST, land use, soil moisture)

2. Set-up, commence 13MHz CODAR network for horizontal atmospheric model validation 3. Coordinate with BPU and developers for vertical atmospheric model validation 4. Run RU-WRF for a year with emphasis on sea breeze season which coincides with peak energy demand

Tasks
5. Vertical and horizontal validation of RU-WRF using monitoring sites and CODAR network 6. Produce high-res, 3-D wind resource maps 7. Collaborate with NJDEP to help identify optimum wind resource locations 8. Provide operational weather forecasts in support of wind power production potential and energy market applications

Proposed Site Location – North Wildwood

Proposed Site Location – Strathmere

Proposed Site Location – Brigantine

Proposed Site Location – Brant Beach

RU-WRF to ROMS Coupling
Our atmospheric model, RU-WRF, will be coupled to our ocean model, ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), to investigate the effects of coastal upwelling on sea breeze activity

RU-WRF Wind and Surface T

ROMS SST and currents at 200 m

MARACOOS Regional Themes

Maritime Operations – Safety at Sea 3) Water Quality – Floatables, Hypoxia, Nutrients

2) Ecosystem Decision Support - Fisheries

5) Energy – Offshore Wind
A r e a s u n d e r C o n s id e r a tio n fo r W in d E n e r g y A r e a s
7 5 ° 3 0 'W 7 5 ° 0 'W 7 4 ° 3 0 'W 7 4 ° 0 'W 7 6 ° 0 'W 7 3 ° 3 0 'W

4) Coastal Inundation - Flooding

P e n n s y lv a n ia

W i l m in g t o n

N ew J e rs ey
3 9 ° 3 0 'N 3 9 ° 3 0 'N

A tl a n ti c C it y D over

3 9 ° 0 'N

D e la w a re

3 8 ° 3 0 'N

M a r y la n d

O cean C it y

3 8 ° 0 'N

CHESAPEAKE B AY
3 7 ° 3 0 'N

V

ir

g

in

ia

N e w J e rs e y D e la w a r e M a r y la n d
3 7 ° 0 'N

V irg in ia B eac h N a u t ic a l M i le s 0
V ir g in ia

5

10

15

20

25

30

7 6 ° 0 'W

7 5 ° 3 0 'W

7 5 ° 0 'W

7 4 ° 3 0 'W

7 4 ° 0 'W

7 3 ° 3 0 'W

3 7 ° 0 'N

V ir g in ia

3 7 ° 3 0 'N

3 8 ° 0 'N

3 8 ° 3 0 'N

3 9 ° 0 'N

DELAW A R E B AY

Predications: New Jersey Observations and Models Observations focused on optimizing forecasts off the NJ Coast
HF Radar Gliders

Water Monitoring & Standards

NYHOPS
Stevens Institute of Technology

Circulation Model GNOME Oil Trajectories

onomous Platforms: Dissolved Oxygen derra Optode

NJDEP EPA Rutgers MACOORA

Oxygen Concentration

Conclusions
1. A high resolution, sea breeze-resolving atmospheric forecast model will be operated for 1 year to fully encompass a winter storm and summer sea breeze season 2. Improved boundary conditions from the 4km NAM and upwelling-resolving satellite SST will be used 3. A unique observing network will be deployed to provide spatial validation data 4. An annual database will be developed and summary statistics calculated