Professional Documents
Culture Documents
and Exhibition
Doha, March 9th-12th 2009
Andy Flower
Independent Consultant
LNG
LNG in 2008
• Global LNG trade fell marginally in 2008, the
first fall since 1980 & 1981
• The problem was on the supply side with only
5 of the 15 exporting countries increasing
their exports
• The reasons for the lower than expected
outcome include
– Shortage of Gas Supply: e.g. Nigeria, Indonesia,
Oman, Egypt
– Force Majeure: e.g. Nigeria, Algeria
– Technical Problems: e.g. Norway, Australia NWS
Train 5
– Delays in Start-up: e.g. Qatargas II Train 1,
Indonesia (Tangguh), Sakhalin
LNG
LNG Trade by Exporter 1964 – 2008
200
Norway
Equatorial Guniea
160 Egypt
Oman
Nigeria
Trinidad
in mtpa
120 Qatar
Australia 7.4%pa
Malaysia
Abu Dhabi
80 Indonesia
Brunei
Libya
USA - Alaska
Algeria
40
0
1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
LNG
Outlook for LNG Supply 2009 to 2012
• 95.3mtpa of new production capacity now under
construction scheduled to come on stream between 2009
and 2012
Qatar 46.8mtpa
Indonesia 7.6mtpa
Russia 9.6mtpa
Yemen 6.7mtpa
Malaysia 1.5mtpa
Peru 4.4mtpa
Australia 4.3mtpa
Angola 5.2mtpa
Algeria 9.2mtpa
LNG
Global LNG Supply from Plants in Operation and
Under Construction in January 2009
300
11.9%pa
200
in mtpa
In mtpa
100
LNG
LNG Demand Outlook 2009-2012
3
In mt
1
0
200
in mtpa
In mtpa
100
0
007 008 009 010 011 012
2 2 2 2 2 2
20
15
In $/MMBtu
10
80
60
in mtpa
40
20
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
LNG
Impact of “Credit Crisis”
• Industry in “wait and see” mode
• Reductions in commodity prices have not yet
fed through to liquefaction plant costs
• Availability of credit not yet tested
• General view is that credit will be available for
“good” projects but financiers will be more
risk averse
– Proven rather than new technology
– Financially strong partners
– Creditworthy buyers
• Potential for FIDs to be delayed in the hope
that the outlook will become less uncertain
LNG
Global LNG Supply 2007 to 2020
500 Average Annual Growth
1980-2008 7.4%
400 2008-2012 11.9%
2012-2020 5.0%
300
in mtpa
200
100
0
300
200
100
LNG