Climate Change & the Future of Personal Transportation

Robin Chase

If worldwide CO2 emissions tip in 2015, we have a 50% chance of averting catastrophic effects -- John Holdren CO2 emissions peak ASAP
90%? 2008 Behavior 50% 2015 0% 2018 2020 2050

Business as usual, for another 10 years, no chance of averting catastrophic effects -- James Hansen

……………………….. Technology, Research, New Infrastructure ………………………….

Per Capita tons/year World Avg 4.5 China 5.8 France 6.3 US 17.7

Road transport is 20% of world CO2 emissions

6

When we will feel the CO2 reduction benefits of actions taken today
Rural

Train
Suburban

Walkable communities Bus Light rail

Bicycle Pedestrian

Urban

Congestion Pricing
Market-rate Parking Car sharing
Telecommuting

Subway

Everyone

Fuel Efficiency

Alternative fuels

Next 0-5 years

Next 5-10 years

Next 10-15 years

Next 15+ years

When we will feel the CO2 reduction benefits of actions taken today
Rural

Train
Suburban

Walkable communities Bus Light rail

Bicycle Pedestrian

Congestion Pricing
Urban

Market-rate Parking Car sharing

Subway

Everyone

Telecommuting

Fuel Efficiency

Gas taxes..Road Pricing Carbon Taxes
Ride Sharing
Next 0-5 years Next 5-10 years Next 10-15 years

Alternative fuels

Next 15+ years

Moving Minds

Moving Matters

BEHAVIOR

9

Today, 6000 euros = average cost/car/year
Major long-term trends increase cost of car transportation

Benefits of car ownership increasing urbanization adds cars rising incomes adds cars congestion slows pace alternative modes better for some trips ROI worse as fewer hours/trips used

Cost of car ownership increases in: fossil fuel parking toll roads congestion pricing carbon taxes

Therefore

Greater mode share to cheaper, more space- & fuel-efficient alternatives: Foot, bike, transit

Personal motorized vehicles will be cheaper, lighter, smaller, more fuel efficient to reduce depreciation, road pricing, congestion pricing, parking, carbon taxes

Shared vehicles will be the right-size for the trip And full

Larger vehicles will be shared vehicles (car sharing)

Auto-Preneurs

See a need/niche for carsharing; create your own in 5 minutes

17

+560,000 +8000 +8000
- 219 gallons/person

112,000 336,000 166,000,000 gallons 1.16 million metric tons of CO2 18

How much is 1,160,000 metric tons

?

1week
tons)

of New York City annual CO2 emissions (58 million metric

NYC = 1% of all U.S. CO2 emissions.

So Zipcar alone reduces US CO2 by nationally. And the company is still growing.

0.02%

Owner’sPerspec ve Add mycar to the network

----

Gogolf Treillières

Drivers:

----

----

----

Reserve bythe hour or Carsreallyeverywhere daywith app

KeyExchange

Cheaper than tradi onal carsharing

----

Make moneyoff mycar!

Owner’sPerspec ve Add mycar to the network

----

Drivers:

----

----

----

Reserve bythe hour or Carsreallyeverywhere daywith app

KeyExchange

Cheaper than tradi onal carsharing

----

Make moneyoff mycar!

Owner’sPerspec ve Add mycar to the network

----

Drivers:

----

----

Rondoudou ---Nantes
KeyExchange Cheaper than tradi onal carsharing

Reserve bythe hour or Carsreallyeverywhere daywith app

----

Make moneyoff mycar!

Buzzcar: empowered people; the power of diversity

26

Technology makes the cost of sharing cheap & the effort of sharing easy

+

The future of the car? • Part of a complete mobility network • Shared • Right sized • Full (includes ride sharing) • Based on open standards & devices

Robin Chase Rchase@alum.mit.edu Blog: NetworkMusings.blogspot.com @rmchase

Robin Chase Robin@buzzcar.com @rmchase

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful