Introduction to Learning Curves and Rates

Learning Curves: introduction
I hope you will enjoy and profit from this overview of learning curves. As always, I enjoy your feedback
Duncan Williamson April 2001
duncan.williamson@tesco.net at any time! April 2001
Learning Curves 1
Learning curves are a vital aspect of the work of many business and commercial settings.
The more we do a job, the quicker we do it the man who made 6 million boxes!
Learning Curves 2
Learning applies to people, machinery, systems

80% learning curve usually assumed but
Learning Curves 3
80% Learning Rate Batches Total Time 1 2 4 8 128 50.00 80.00 128.00 204.80 1,342.18 CAT
Learning Curves 4
80% Learning Rate Batches Total Time 1 2 4 8 128 50.00 80.00 128.00 204.80 1,342.18 CAT 50.00 40.00 32.00 25.60 10.49
Learning Curves 5
Batches 1 2 4 8 128 No Learning Total Time 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 6,400.00 CAT 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Learning Curves 6
Implications of learning taking place as opposed to no learning taking place

Learning Curves 7: 1/hour

80% Learning Rate Batches Total Time Labour Cost 1 2 4 8 128 50.00 80.00 128.00 204.80 1,342.18 50.00 80.00 128.00 204.80 1,342.18
Learning Curves 8: 1/hour

Batches 1 2 4 8 128 No Learning Total Time Labour Cost 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 6,400.00 50.00 100.00 200.00 400.00 6,400.00
Learning Curves 9
Imagine now that each batch is made up of 5 units

Learning Curves 10
Units 5 10 20 40 640 Average Cost/unit 80% No Learning Learning 10.00 16.00 25.60 40.96 268.44 10.00 20.00 40.00 80.00 1,280.00
Learning Curves 11
Learning curve: 80%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Batch Number
Learning Curves 12
Learning curve: 90%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Batch Number
Learning Curves 13
Learning curve: 60%
60.000
50.000
40.000
CAT
30.000
20.000
10.000
0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Batch Number
Learning Curves 14: overlays
Learning Curves 15: formulae
Its very difficult to calculate or predict the CAT for anything other than the CAT at the DOUBLING POINT: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 128 Now it gets mathematical!

Y = aX
b
where Y = CAT or CAC a = time/cost of the 1st unit or batch X = cumulative production or batches produced b = learning exponent (rate)
and
lnLearning Rate b= ln2

Now we can calculate or predict the CAT for any number of batches. eg
a = 50 hours X = 128 batches learning rate = 80% b = ln0.8/ln2 = -0.22314/0.69315 = -0.32193

Y = aX = 50 * 128
b -0.32193
= 10.48576
This means that at 128 batches, CAT = 10.48576

So total time = 10.48576 * 128 = 1,342.18
Learning Curves 19: exercise

Your turn eg
a = 100 hours X = 64 batches learning rate = 80%
Learning Curves 19b: solution

Y = aX = 100 * 64
b -0.32193
= 26.2141

So total time = 26.2141 * 64 = 1,677.71
Learning Curves 20: exercise

Try again eg
a = 60 hours X = 32 batches learning rate = 90%
Learning Curves 20b: solution

Y = aX = 60 * 32
b -0.15200
= 35.4298

So total time = 35.4298 * 32 = 2,125.787
Learning Curves 21
In general terms, the following guidelines might be useful for us

75% hand assembly/25% machining = 80% learning 50% hand assembly/50% machining = 85% learning 25% hand assembly/75% machining = 90%
Learning Curves 22
Alternatively, industry averages:

Aerospace Shipbuilding Raw materials
85% 80 85% 93 96%
Purchased parts 85 88%
Learning Curves 23
For the rest of this session, well look at ways of assessing our own learning rates
Learning Curves 24: results

Trial No 1 2 3 4
Time Taken
5 6 7 8 9 10
Learning Curves 25
Activities:
Jigsaw Finding numbers in a grid (a) and (b) Copying text (a) and (b)
Learning Curves: follow up 1

I hope you found last weeks learning curve experiments Interesting and informative.
Lets just review what we found and some implications Of that.

We have learning rates of less than 70% and greater Than 100%.
Of course, everyone would like to think that they are The smartest person on the planet; but our Experiments can not confirm that we are. Heres why

Remember, I set up the experiments to demonstrate How to make learning curve theory come to life; and To provide ways in which we can practice the Mathematics in an interesting way. My experiments were not wholly scientifically designed, Even if they were good fun!

I tried to make the experiments are similar to each Other as possible
eg all the sentences in the writing experiment had An average of 33 letters in them The number grids all had the SAME 20 numbers in them Each trial was designed to take about 1 minute

Some other points that we should think about and get Our students to think about include
The observer will learn from the first guinea pig: we Found that the second person to carry out an Experiment had a much quicker 1st trial time than The first guinea pig.

Where on the learning curve was the guinea pig? If your learning rate is, say, 98% or even 105%, that Could be because you are already proficient at that Activity. eg, the young lady who carried out the bead Threading exercise for me

Suppose you were to carry out the experiments again. What would you expect to find?

Repeating an experiment or a task can lead to a Perfectly usual learning curve, as we saw last week; Or it could present us with a discontinuous Learning curve

Learning Exercise: Trials 1 - 14 done on day 1 Trials 15 - 28 done on day 4
450.0000 400.0000 350.0000 300.0000
Learning rate 1 Learning rate 2 Learning rate 1+2
68.19% 92.07% 66.33%
CAT
250.0000 200.0000 150.0000 100.0000 50.0000 0.0000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
trials
session 1 session 2
Learning Curves: conclusion

I hope you have enjoyed and will profit from this overview of learning curves. I like learning curves and find all students like doing what Ive shown here. Do the experiments, do the calculations, draw the graphs and discuss what you find theres a lot to discover! Write to me: duncan.williamson@tesco.net at any time to discuss these slides. April

Introduction to Learning Curves and Rates

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Learning Curves: introduction

duncan.williamson@tesco.net at any time! April 2001

Learning applies to people, machinery, systems

80% learning curve usually assumed but

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Implications of learning taking place as opposed to no learning taking place

Learning Curves 7: 1/hour

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves 8: 1/hour

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Imagine now that each batch is made up of 5 units

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Duncan Williamson April 2001

0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Duncan Williamson April 2001

0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Duncan Williamson April 2001

0.000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves 14: overlays

Learning Curves 15: formulae

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves 16: formulae

Duncan Williamson April 2001

lnLearning Rate b= ln2

Learning Curves 17: formulae

a = 50 hours X = 128 batches learning rate = 80% b = ln0.8/ln2 = -0.22314/0.69315 = -0.32193

Learning Curves 18: formulae

This means that at 128 batches, CAT = 10.48576

So total time = 10.48576 * 128 = 1,342.18

Learning Curves 19: exercise

a = 100 hours X = 64 batches learning rate = 80%

Learning Curves 19b: solution

This means that at 64 batches, CAT = 26.2141

So total time = 26.2141 * 64 = 1,677.71

Learning Curves 20: exercise

a = 60 hours X = 32 batches learning rate = 90%

Learning Curves 20b: solution

This means that at 32 batches, CAT = 35.4298

So total time = 35.4298 * 32 = 2,125.787

In general terms, the following guidelines might be useful for us

Alternatively, industry averages:

Aerospace Shipbuilding Raw materials

85% 80 85% 93 96%

Purchased parts 85 88%

Learning Curves 24: results

Learning Curves: follow up 1

Lets just review what we found and some implications Of that.

Learning Curves: follow up 2

Learning Curves: follow up 3

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves: follow up 4

Learning Curves: follow up 5

Learning Curves: follow up 6

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves: follow up 7

Learning Curves: follow up 8

Duncan Williamson April 2001

Learning Curves: follow up 9

Learning rate 1 Learning rate 2 Learning rate 1+2