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By Prof. Raymond U. Akwule George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Trends in Global Communications...
Convergence of microelectronics, computers and communications Changing policy and regulatory horizon Massive infusion of capital into telecoms/IT

Trends in Global Communications...
Growth of the Internet replacing other forms of data transmission Change in Settlement regimes Emergence of global mobile personal systems

so that the cost per voice circuit becomes infinitesimal . first introduced in the 1970s.Advancement in Technology Fiber optics. have allowed for an explosion in the capacity (bandwidth) of transmission systems. A fiber thinner than a human hair can carry many thousands of telephone conversations.

Digitalization These cables can now be connected by electronic switching components that cost a fraction of analogue switches. and allow for services such as caller ID and efficiency gains through µintelligent networking¶ --which is also vital to wireless services. .

Wireless connectivity Wireless has become even more affordable through the introduction of new technologies for using the radio spectrum. including: Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). GSM .

This has particularly helped the explosion of the Internet.Integrated Circuits and Miniaturization There has been a free-fall in the price of computing power made possible by inventions including integrated circuits and miniaturization. .

Global trends to watch: Drivers of change in telecoms Customer Premise Equipment (CPE) Computer Telephony (CT) Call Centers Internet Speech Recognition Multimedia Network Convergence Global Networks .

Global ICT trends to watch  Within a few years. multimedia will become an everyday technology. and on the Internet of the future. telephone services and transmission of moving images will be standard  R&D. business and leisure will be increasingly dominated by computers and telecommunications  By 2006 consumers will order one-third of their food and clothing with the click of a mouse .

Global ICT trends to watch  Innovation cycles will shorten as development projects are carried out simultaneously in a follow-the-sun method  A third of all office workers will spend at least two days a week working from home. causing a 20% drop in business traffic .

Global ICT trends to watch  Higher and continuing education will increasingly take place at home. while virtual schools and universities will become widespread  Small.and medium-sized businesses will have to cooperate more closely to keep up with competition and increasingly involve their customers in the development phase of their products/services  Chip cards are replaced by biometrics (facial recognition. fingerprints) (2009) .

Global ICT trends to watch Monitors that fit into handbags and flexible displays that can be folded and rolled up come onto the market (2010) All electronically stored information will be accessible in any of the world s major languages and pocket-sized translation systems will make the local language comprehensible (2012) .

Global ICT trends to watch The Future Will Not Be Like the Present The Rate of Change Will Increase Technology Will Play a Greater Role in Society and at Work The Economy Will Become More and More Global Competition (and Therefore Choice) Will Increase .

Trends in Africa Sharp increase in awareness Increased infusion of capital but not enough Reform of the sector across the continent Regional and National Level Activities .

Regional Scope International Initiatives African Information Society Initiative (AISI) UNDP Internet Initiative for Africa .along with UNDP Africa Leland Initiative -.USAID Partnership for Information and Communication Technology for Africa (PICTA) African Development Forum .

African Telecommunications Union Regional African Satellite Communication (RASCOM) BOT for dedicated satellite satellite expected to be in operation by 2002 .Regional Scope...

two major operators -several other licenses South Africa -Privatization of the PTT and substantial private sector involvement .National Scope Privatization on the increase A variety of approaches adopted in various countries Nigeria.over 100 licenses in various categories Ghana .

An African Renaissance in Progress Young Africans are acquiring skills to manage technology and associated development They are participating in development of the sector from an entrepreneurial stance .

ICT Features ICT has improved dramatically over the last 5 years Internet. satellite TV.000 dialup Internet accounts for over 700 million people Access remains concentrated in urban areas A variety and rich diversity of response to ICT development 19 . cellular phones are now widespread Access to telephone still very scarce Fewer than 100.

7/100 on average) Increasing no.ICT Features Broadcasting Radio still most dominant mass medium (60% of Africa can be reached by public and private broadcasters) Radio= 18/100 inhabitants National TV coverage largely confined to major towns (6. of commercial radio stations Sharing of information resources common Live radios and community radios emerging 20 .

51 1.5 2 1.37 0.5 1 0.47 1.24 21 .5 0 1990 1995 Years 1996 1998 0.77 1.81 2.ICT Features Telecommunications Increased rate in expansion growth at about 10% a year most lines in capital cities Teledensity 2.29 SSA Africa 0.41 0.

rental $0.3 million people on waiting lists Very high incidence of faults Cost of installation $112-$200.4% SSA) 2.8.60-$8 Some highly sophisticated networks 22 .$20.) 2% of world s telephone lines (0. call $0.ICT Features Telecommunications (cont.

ICT Features Telecoms contd. Costs/alternatives Costs=20% GDP/year Small number public telephones 1/17000 High telecoms profits Telex still used in many areas Growth in cellular telephone Regulatory.. privatization and liberalization improvement Ce u ar 3381300 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1995 1996 Years 1997 1998 652200 1148000 1278306 Ce u ar Senegal¶s 7000 teleshops employ 10000 generate 30% of revenue 23 .

Africa·s Information Infrastructure Internet All countries with local access still mostly in capital cities some countries with local call Internet access country-wide expected rapid growth in Internet Nigeria. telecentres Phone shops adding telephones Hotels and business centres 24 . 2000 high costs charges /hr +monthly fee most countries have multiple ISPs (markets structures) Public Access Kiosks. cybercafes.

How many on-line? onRegion Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Middle East Canada and USA South America World Total # On-line (million ) 2.1% 0.46 54.4% 49% 3.06 8.99 1.54 Percentage 0.79 275.90 71.2% 100% Compiled by Nua Internet Surveys .2/2000 .29 136.9% 20% 26.

Internet in Africa Internet (cont.) Low bandwidth Lower use in academics and public institutions Full Internet connectivity at universities in 20 countries usually restricted to senior staff High Medium Low Bandwidth 1999 26 .

Africa·s Information Infrastructure Circuit to US. EU No backbone No registry Internet governance SMEs access to ec 27 .

Actions required to expand Internet access Provide inexpensive and reliable access to international bandwidth. reliable.6Kbps to 2Mbits Provide inexpensive and reliable local bandwidth connectivity. International circuits range from 9. Local loop bandwidth is often limited to 64Kbps Provide country-wide. . local cost access to Internet Service Providers.

Provide inexpensive access to network equipment. Provide an educated and trained user and provider base.Actions required to expand internet access .. . This should include network infrastructure in the sub-urban and rural areas Provide widespread public access to networked computers..

. Lowering tariffs on computer and telecommunications equipment.Policies in support of Internet growth Liberalization of the telecommunications network. Liberalization of Internet service provision.

intra regional connectivity is not available Support for community access to the Internet.. General tariff re-balancing with possible support for local-cost ISP access.a center that administers IP addresses Network peering among local service providers . Development of an African IP registry . ..Policies in support of Internet growth.

.Policies in support of Internet growth. Support for local content development Development of an Africa-wide backbone ..

edu Tel: 703-9931091 or 703-6913570 Fax: 703-9931096 or 703-6913572 .THANK YOU! CONTACT ADRESS Dr Raymond Akwule rakwule@gmu.

FYI AFCOM 2001 July 17 .20 Virginia. USA .