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RESEARCH DESIGN

An Analysis of Indias Foreign Trade in the Pre-Liberalization, Post Liberalization and WTO regime
By Xxxx xyz College Hyderabad Research Supervisor Head, Dept. of Economics xyz College Hyderabad

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY


To analyse the growth rates of Exports and Imports during the periods Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92), Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) and WTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06) using semi-log equation method. To examine the relationship between GDP and Exports using simple regression. To examine the relationship between GDP and Imports using simple regression. To see whether the difference in growth rates in exports and imports is statistically significant over the three sub periods using dummy variable methodology.

HYPOTHESES H0: Indias Exports exhibit growth with passing of time. H0: Indias Imports exhibit growth with passing of time. H0:GDP growth influences Export growth. H0:GDP growth influences Import growth.

METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY:


PLACE OF STUDY: The place of study is India. TIME PERIOD OF STUDY: The period of study spans 1987-88 to 2005-06. Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92) Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) WTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06) DATA : The study uses secondary data. SOURCES:

Finance India and websites of RBI, DGFT, World Bank, WTO, CII, FAPCCI and Ministry of Commerce and Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS).

DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES


Growth Rate of Variables: To study the growth rates in various economic aggregates such as exports, imports, the semilogarithmic equation is used. Causality Relationship: To study the relationship involving GDP, Exports and Imports simple regression is used. Changes in parameters over time: To study the changes in the parameters over time, i.e., to see whether the difference in growth rates in exports and imports is statistically significant over two sub periods, dummy variable methodology is used.

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY:


The data pertaining to GDP, Exports and Imports are taken at current prices. The growth trends the data shows may or may not reflect real growth as inflated prices may exaggerate growth figures. As every data is taken at current prices, it is assumed that price effect is nullified.

PLAN OF THE STUDY:


Chapter I: World Trade & Indias Foreign Trade  Importance of Foreign Trade  Performance of World Trade  Performance of Indias Trade  Indias Share in World Trade Chapter-II: Research Methodology  Literature Survey  Problem Statement  Objectives of Study  Hypothesis  Research Methodology  Plan of the Study

PLAN OF THE STUDY: Chapter -III: Analysis the growth rates of Exports and Imports Chapter -IV: Relationship between GDP and exports Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92) Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) WTO Period (1997-98 to 2005-06)

PLAN OF THE STUDY:


Chapter -V: Relationship between GDP and Imports Pre- Liberalization (1987-88 to 1991-92) Liberalization (1992-93 to 1996-97) WTO Period(1997-98 to 2005-06)

PLAN OF THE STUDY:


Chapter -VI: Export and Import growth during the three periods-Identification of underlying reasons

Chapter -VII: Conclusions and Recommendations

THANK YOU