Introduction to statistics

Bioinformatics-II Computational Sciences April 2010
Prof. dr. Antoine van Kampen 1. Bioinformatics Laboratory, AMC 2. BioSystems Data Analysis, UvA a.h.vankampen@amc.uva.nl

Descriptive Statistics

Describing data

Moment

Non-mean based measure Mode, median Range (max-min), Interquartile range (1st3rd quartile) ---

Center Spread

Mean Variance (standard deviation) Skewness Kurtosis

Skew Peaked

Quartile
‡ In descriptive statistics, a quartile is any of the three values which divide the sorted data set into four equal parts, so that each part represents 1/4th of the sample or population.
± first quartile (designated Q1) = lower quartile ‡ cuts off lowest 25% of data (25th percentile ) ± second quartile (designated Q2) = median ‡ cuts data set in half (50th percentile ) ± third quartile (designated Q3) = upper quartile ‡ cuts off highest 25% of data, or lowest 75% (75th percentile )

‡ The difference between the upper and lower quartiles is called the interquartile range.

D. i !1 Degrees of freedom n 2 variance ( xi  Q ) § n 1 ! s i !1 n 2 Standard deviation In statistics.Variance. the term degrees of freedom (df) is a measure of the number of independent pieces of information on which the precision of a parameter estimate is based.htm Jack Good's 1973 article in the American Statistician "What are Degrees of Freedom?" 27. http://www. 227-228 .jerrydallal. S.com/LHSP/dof. of a Sample ( xi  Q ) 2 § n 1 ! s .

Skewness Frequency Value .

Box-whisker plots .

Quality of a sampling estimate Precision & validity No precision Precision but no validity Random error Systematic error (bias) .

hypergeometric. Poisson. t-distribution. chi-square ‡ What parameters describe their shapes ‡ How these distributions can be useful .Distributions ‡ Normal. binomial.

Normal distribution .

The Normal Distribution ‡ Also called a ³Gaussian´ distribution ‡ Centered around the mean Q with a width determined by the standard deviation W ‡ Total area under the curve = 1.0 1  ( x  Q ) / 2W 2 f ( x) ! e W 2T .

A Normal Distribution . . ‡ For a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 1: . .

‡ You won¶t get the same answer every time. a histogram of your measurements will approach the appearance of a normal distribution. ‡ The random uncertainty or random error . but if you make a lot of measurements. ‡ Any situation in which the exact value of a continuous variable is altered randomly from trial to trial. ± Imagine repeating this process many times.What Does a Normal Distribution Describe? ‡ Imagine that you go to the lab and very carefully measure out 5 ml of liquid and weigh it.

the area under the curve between x=a and x=b is the probability that your next measurement of x will fall between a and b .How Do You Use The Normal Distribution? ‡ Use the area UNDER the normal distribution ‡ For example.

55.6 A normal distribution with a mean of 75 and a standard deviation of 10. For all normal distributions.6.96 standard deviations of the mean. The shaded area contains 95% of the area and extends from 55. . 95% of the area is within 1.4 to 94.4 75 94.

6 Area is determined by integration of normal distribution .55.4 94.

Integration .

How Do You Get Q and W? ‡ To draw a normal distribution you must know Q and W 1  ( x  Q ) / 2W 2 f ( x) ! e W 2 ‡ If you made an infinite number of measurements. Q and W will be given Later we¶ll use x and s to estimate Q and W . their mean would be Q and their standard deviation would be W In practice. you have a finite number of measurements with mean x and standard deviation s ‡ For now.

so use a µstandard normal distribution¶ with standard tabulated areas.Q) / W ‡ Use the standard normal distribution Q = 0 and W = 1 (areas tabulated in any statistics text book) The z-score indicates the number of standard deviations that value x is away from the mean Q .The Standard Normal Distribution ‡ It is tedious to µintegrate¶ a new normal distribution for every population. ‡ Convert your measurement x to a standard score (z-score) z = (x .

Probability density function z-transform green curve is standard normal distribution .

5% .Standard Normal Distribution z=1.96 2.

Standard Normal Distribution .

66 transform of mean: z = (5-5)/3 = 0 transform of other value: z = (10-5)/3 = 1.66 .mean=5 std=3 x>=10 4.8% mean=0 std=1 x>=1.

What value would be needed to be in the 85th percentile? Stat tables: http://www.Exercises 1 *If scores are normally distributed with a mean of 30 and a standard deviation of 5.com/textbook/sttable.html .statsoft. what percent of the scores is: (a) greater than 30? (b) greater than 37? (c) between 28 and 34? *What proportion of a normal distribution is within one standard deviation of the mean? *What proportion is more than 1.8 standard deviations from the mean? *A test is normally distributed with a mean of 40 and a standard deviation of 7.

Binomial distribution .

What Does the Binomial Distribution Describe? ‡ yes/no experiments (two possible outcomes) ‡ The probability of getting all ³tails´ if you throw a coin three times ‡ The probability of getting all male puppies in a litter of 8 ‡ The probability of getting two defective batteries in a package of six .

Exercise 2 What is the probability of getting one µ2¶ when you roll six dice? .

The Binomial Distribution bionomial coefficient ‡ The probability of getting the result of interest k times out of n. if the overall probability of the result is p ‡ Note that here. k is a discrete variable ± Integer values only .

Binomial Distribution ‡ n=6 ‡ p = 1/6 ‡ k = [0 1 2 3 4 5 6] number of dice rolled probability of rolling a 2 # of 2s out of 6 0.402 .

number of puppies in litter probability of any pup being male # of males out of 8 . ‡ p = 1/2. ‡ k = [0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8].Binomial Distribution ‡ n = 8.

p) .5 ± Approaches normal distribution if n is large.The Shape of the Binomial Distribution ‡ Shape is determined by values of n and p ± Only truly symmetric if p = 0. unless p is very small ‡ Mean number of ³successes´ is np ‡ Variance of distribution is variance (X) = n p(1.

your little brother claims to have rolled a ³Yahtzee´ in 6¶s (five dice all 6¶s) in one roll of the five dice. How justified would you be in beating him up for cheating? .Exercise 3 While you are in the bathroom.

Poisson distribution e Q Pn ( Q ) ! n! P( ) Q n probability of getting n counts (=0. 1.. 2..) average of distribution variance == mean ..

On average =1 dot per interval =1 e Q Pn (Q) ! n! P( ) Q n probability of getting n counts average of distribution n .Poisson distribution Randomly placed dots over 50 scale divisions.

1 What is probability of getting 4 calls? .Exercise 4 e Q n (Q ) ! n! Q n Pn( ) probability of getting n counts average of distribution Average number of phone calls in 1 hour = 2.

Exercise 5 e Q n (Q ) ! n! Q n Pn( ) probability of getting n counts average of distribution Average number of phone calls in 1 hour = 2.1 What is probability of getting 0 calls? Does this simplify the formula? .

Hypergeometric distribution .

Hypergeometric Distribution ‡ Suppose that we have an urn with N balls in it. ‡ Then k balls are drawn from the urn without replacement and of these X are observed to be yellow. of these m are yellow and others are blue. ‡ X is a random variable following hypergeometric distribution ‡ What is the probability of observing X=6 yellow balls? N=20 m=n=10 draw k=10 balls X=6 .

0.15 2 4 X 6 8 10 P(X = x) = ¨m¸ ¨ n ¸ © ¹© ¹ ª x º ªk-xº ¨N¸ © ¹ ªkº N! x! (m-x)! (k-x)! (n-k+x)! = k! (N-k)! m! n! .00 0. 0 =n=k=10 White Balls drawn Remained in urn X m±X m Black k ±X n±k+X n k P(X) N-k N 0.Hypergeometric Distribution N=20.

White Balls drawn Remained in urn x¶ m ± x¶ m Black k ± x¶ n ± k + x¶ n k N-k N P(X u x¶) = § ! x! (m-x)! (k-x)! ( -m-k x)! k! ( -k)! m! ( -m)! x= x' to min(m.Fisher¶s Exact Test ‡ We often want to ask whether there are more white balls in the sample than expected by chance. it is less likely that we get the result by chance.k)  If the probability is small. .

Hypergeometric example ‡ We extracted 36 samples from leukemia microarray dataset: ± Whole dataset: 47 ALL + 25 AML (total 72 samples) How many ALL and AML samples do you expect when you randomly select samples from the dataset? .

88 (original ratio = 47/25=1.5 ALL 12.Hypergeometric example ‡ We extracted 36 samples from leukemia microarray dataset: ± Whole dataset: 47 ALL + 25 AML (total 72 samples) How many ALL and AML samples do you expect when you randomly select samples from the dataset? Answer: 23.88) .5 AML ratio = 1.

Hypergeometric example ‡ We extracted 36 samples from leukemia microarray dataset: ± Whole dataset: 47 ALL + 25 AML (total 72 samples) ± Extracted: 29 ALL + 7 AML Is this sample enriched for ALL samples? ALL Extracted Not extracted Total: 29 18 47 AML 7 18 25 36 36 72 Pr(extracted ALL 29) ¨47¸ ¨ 25 ¸ ª i º ª36 ± iº = ¨ 72 ¸ i >= 29 ª 36 º § 36 = 0.006  Conclusion: This sample is significantly enriched with ALL samples possible bias in sample selection .

Sampling Distribution ‡ Every time we take a random sample and calculate a statistic. . This distribution is referred to as a sampling distribution. a statistic is a random variable). ‡ A sampling distribution is a distribution that describes the chance fluctuations of a statistic calculated from a random sample. the value of the statistic changes (remember. ‡ If we continue to take random samples and calculate a given statistic over time. we will build up a distribution of values for the statistic.

Sampling Distribution of the Mean
‡ The probability distribution of distribution of the mean.

X

is called the sampling

‡ The distribution of X , for a given sample size n, describes the variability of sample averages around the population mean .

Sampling Distribution of the Mean
‡ If a random sample of size n is taken from a normal 2 population having mean x and varianceW x , then X is a random variable which is also normally distributed with mean x and variance W 2 .
x

n
‡ Further,

X  Qx Z! W n

is a standard normal random variable.

Sampling Distribution of the Mean
Original population 1
Original Population Averages - Sample Size = 10

n(100,5)

3

n(100,1.58)

80

85

90

95

100 X

105

110

115

120

80

85

90

95

100 X(10)

105

110

115

120

Averages - Sample Size = 2

Averages - Sample Size = 25

2

n(100,3.54)

4

n(100,1)

5/sqrt(2)=3.54
80 85 90 95 100 X(2) 105 110 115 120
80 85 90 95 100 X(25) 105 110 115 120

Sampling Distribution of the Mean
‡ Example: A manufacturer of steel rods claims that the length of his bars follows a normal distribution with a mean of 30 cm and a standard deviation of 0.5 cm.
(a) Assuming that the claim is true, what is the probability that a given bar will exceed 30.1 cm? (b) Assuming the claim is true, what is the probability that the mean of 10 randomly chosen bars will exceed 30.1 cm? (c) Assuming the claim is true, what is the probability that the mean of 100 randomly chosen bars will exceed 30.1 cm?

42) (b) Assuming the claim is true.5=0.Sampling Distribution of the Mean ‡ Example: A manufacturer of steel rods claims that the length of his bars follows a normal distribution with a mean of 30 cm and a standard deviation of 0.2 p=0.63 p=0.1-30)/(0.5/sqrt(100)=2 p=0.5 cm.5/sqrt(10)=0. what is the probability that the mean of 10 randomly chosen bars will exceed 30. (a) Assuming that the claim is true.26) (c) Assuming the claim is true. what is the probability that a given bar will exceed 30.1 cm? (z=30.02) .1-30)/0.1 cm? (z=30.1 cm? (z=30.1-30)/(0. what is the probability that the mean of 100 randomly chosen bars will exceed 30.

42 28.Sampling Distribution of the Mean Steel Bar Lengths (cm) .5 30 X(100) 30.5 31 31. 26 .02 28.5 28.5 29 29.5 .5 29 29.5 30 X(10) 30.5 29 29.5 Steel Bar Lengths (cm) Steel Bar Lengths (cm) .5 30 X 30.5 31 31.5 31 31.

_ W x decrease.Properties of Sample Mean as Estimator of Population Mean ‡ Expected value of sample mean is population mean X) ! Q ‡ The mean has variance Variance = W 2 n n As n increase. standard error: _ W x = W .

.

When the Population is Normal then the Sampling Distribution is Also Normal Population Distribution Central Tendency = 10 Q _ = Q x Q = 50 X Variation W _ = W x n Sampling Distributions n=4 DX = 5 QX = 50 X n =16 DX = 2.5 X .

Central Limit Theorem As Sample Size Gets Large Enough Sampling Distribution Becomes almost normal regardless of shape of population X X .

8 Q _ = Q x Variation W _ = W x n QX ! 50 X .When The Population is Not Normal Population Distribution Central Tendency W = 10 Q = 50 X Sampling Distributions n=4 WDX = n =30 WDX = 1.

If n < 30.Central Limit Theorem ‡ Rule of thumb: normal approximation for X will be good if n > 30. the approximation is only good if the population from which you are sampling is not too different from normal. ‡ Otherwise t-distribution .

t-Distribution ‡ So far. it is often true that one is estimating from the same set of data. This may be true if one has a large amount of experience with a certain process. ‡ However. along with §(Xi  X ) W !s! Ö n 1 2 . we have been assuming that we knew the value of .

we will consider the t statistic: X  Qx T! S n which follows a t-distribution. S n standard error of the mean .t-Distribution ‡ To allow for such a situation.

t-Distribution t-Distribution t(n=6) t(n=g) = Z t(n=3) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 t 1 2 3 4 .

t-Distribution ‡ If X is the mean of a random sample of size n taken from a normal population having the mean and variance 2. where is degrees of freedom. and §(Xi  X ) S ! 2 2 then n 1 X Q t! S/ n is a random variable following the t.distribution with parameter = n ± 1. .

due to symmetry.05 .95 t.80 t. ‡ t represents the t-value that has an area of it.20 t.t-Distribution ‡ The t-distribution has been tabularized.= -t t-Distribution to the right of -4 -3 -2 -1 0 t(n=3) 1 2 3 4 t. t1. ‡ Note.

1375.Example: t-Distribution ‡ The resistivity of batches of electrolyte follow a normal distribution. 1500. We sample 5 batches and get the following readings: 1400. 1450. 1550. X ! 1455 S ! 72 ‡ Does this data support or refute a population average of 1400? .

025 Refute 3 4 1.71 t=2.Example: t-Distribution X  Q 1455  1400 t! ! ! 1.78 .71 S/ n 72 / 5 t-Distribution Support Refute -4 -3 -2 -1 0 t(n=5) 1 2 p=0.

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing .

Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing« ‡ A criminal trial is an example of hypothesis testing without the statistics. ‡ In a trial a jury must decide between two hypotheses. The null hypothesis is H0: The defendant is innocent ‡ The alternative hypothesis or research hypothesis is H1: The defendant is guilty ‡ The jury does not know which hypothesis is true. They must make a decision on the basis of evidence presented.

Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing« ‡ In the language of statistics convicting the defendant is called rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.
± That is, the jury is saying that there is enough evidence to conclude that the defendant is guilty (i.e., there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis).

‡ If the jury acquits it is stating that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis.
± Notice that the jury is not saying that the defendant is innocent, only that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. ± That is why we never say that we accept the null hypothesis.

Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing« ‡ There are two possible errors. ‡ A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis. That is, a Type I error occurs when the jury convicts an innocent person. ‡ A Type II error occurs when we don¶t reject a false null hypothesis. That occurs when a guilty defendant is acquitted.

Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing« ‡ The probability of a Type I error is denoted as . ‡ The probability of a type II error is . ‡ The two probabilities are inversely related. Decreasing one increases the other.

the null and the alternative hypotheses. 3. There are two hypotheses. The procedure begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true. 2. The null hypothesis (H0) will always state that the parameter equals the value specified in the alternative hypothesis (H1) The goal is to determine whether there is enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is true. There are two possible decisions: ± ± Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. .Nonstatistical Hypothesis Testing« The critical concepts are these 1. 3. 4.

e. . Population Sample Inference Statistic Parameter ‡ Hypothesis testing allows us to determine whether enough statistical evidence exists to conclude that a belief (i. hypothesis) about a parameter is supported by the data.‡ Hypothesis testing is a procedure for making inferences about a population.

We can rephrase this request into a test of the hypothesis: ‡ H0: = 350 Thus. Rather than estimate the mean demand.Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ Example: mean demand for computers during assembly lead time. our operations manager wants to know whether the mean is different from 350 units. our research hypothesis becomes: ‡ H1:  350 This is what we are interested in determining .

we will assume: H0: = 350 (assumed to be TRUE) . until we have further statistical evidence. ‡ Thus.Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ The testing procedure begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.

is there sufficient statistical information to determine if this statement: H1:  350. ‡ That is. is true? This is what we are interested in determining .Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ The goal of the process is to determine whether there is enough evidence to infer that the alternative hypothesis is true.

.Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ There are two possible decisions that can be made: Conclude that there is enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (also stated as: rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative) Conclude that there is not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (also stated as: not rejecting the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative) NOTE: we do not say that we accept the null hypothesis.

If is close to 350 (say. the sample mean). if we¶re trying to decide whether the mean is not equal to 350. 600) would provide enough evidence. a large value of (say. the next step is to randomly sample the population and calculate a test statistic (in this example.Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ Once the null and alternative hypotheses are stated. ‡ If the test statistic¶s value is inconsistent with the null hypothesis we reject the null hypothesis and infer that the alternative hypothesis is true. . 355) we could not say that this provides a great deal of evidence to infer that the population mean is different than 350. ‡ For example.

.Concepts of Hypothesis Testing« ‡ Two possible errors can be made in any test: ± A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis and ± A Type II error occurs when we don¶t reject a false null hypothesis. ‡ There are probabilities associated with each type of error: P(Type I error) = P(Type II error ) = ‡ is called the significance level.

Do NOT reject H0 when it is FALSE) .Types of Errors« ‡ A Type I error occurs when we reject a true null hypothesis (i.e.e. Reject H0 when it is TRUE) ‡ A Type II error occurs when we don¶t reject a false null hypothesis (i.

‡ Can we conclude that the new system will be cost-effective? . The accounts are approximately normally distributed with a standard deviation of ¼65. for which the sample mean is ¼178. ‡ A random sample of 400 monthly accounts is drawn.Example ‡ A department store manager determines that a new billing system will be cost-effective only if the mean monthly account is more than ¼170.

Example The system will be cost effective if the mean account balance for all customers is greater than ¼170. We express this belief as a our research hypothesis. that is: ‡ H1: > 170 (this is what we want to determine) Thus. our null hypothesis becomes: ‡ H0: = 170 (this specifies a single value for the parameter of interest) .

What to do next?! .Example What we want to show: H1: > 170 H0: = 170 (we¶ll assume this is true) We know: n = 400 = 178 = 65 ‡ Hmm.

we can use two different approaches: ‡ The rejection region approach (typically used when computing statistics manually). ‡ We will explore both in turn« . and ‡ The p-value approach (which is generally used with a computer and statistical software).Example ‡ To test our hypotheses.

is the critical value of to reject H0.Example. . Rejection Region« ‡ The rejection region is a range of values such that if the test statistic falls into that range. we decide to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

Example ‡ It seems reasonable to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative if the value of the sample mean is large relative to 170. = P( > ) is also« = P(rejecting H0 given that H0 is true) = P(Type I error) . that is if > .

we can calculate this based on any level of significance ( ) we want« .Example ‡ All that¶s left to do is calculate and compare it to 178.

we reject the null hypothesis in favor of H1. we get ‡ Solving we compute =175.Example ‡ At a 5% significance level (i. i. that: > 170 and that it is cost effective to install the new billing system . =0.34).e.e.05).34 ‡ Since our sample mean (178) is greater than the critical value we calculated (175.

Example The Big Picture« H1: > 170 H0: = 170 Reject H0 in favor of =175.34 =178 .

05).Standardized Test Statistic« ‡ An easier method is to use the standardized test statistic: and compare its result to : (rejection region: z > ) ‡ Since z = 2.645 (z. we reject H0 in favor of H1« .46 > 1.

e. = 178). given that the null hypothesis (H0: = 170) is true? p-value .p-Value ‡ The p-value of a test is the probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the one computed given that the null hypothesis is true. ‡ In the case of our department store example. what is the probability of observing a sample mean at least as extreme as the one already observed (i.

. ‡ We observe a p-value of .0069. the more statistical evidence exists to support the alternative hypothesis.Interpreting the p-value« ‡ The smaller the p-value. hence there is evidence to support H1: > 170.

05 .10 .01 .0069 .Interpreting the p-value« Overwhelming Evidence (Highly Significant) Strong Evidence (Significant) Weak Evidence (Not Significant) No Evidence (Not Significant) 0 p=.

we judge the p-value to be small enough to reject the null hypothesis.0069 < H1 = .05. ‡ Since p-value = . we do not reject the null hypothesis. we reject H0 in favor of . ‡ If the p-value is greater than .Interpreting the p-value« ‡ Compare the p-value with the selected value of the significance level: ‡ If the p-value is less than .

the alternative hypothesis is H1: < 22 The null hypothesis is H0: = 22 . Thus. We want to know whether there is enough statistical evidence to show that the population mean is less than 22 days.Another example« The objective of the study is to draw a conclusion about the mean payment period. the parameter to be tested is the population mean. Thus.

‡ As a result we locate the rejection region in the left tail of the sampling distribution. . ‡ We set the significance level at 10%.Another example« ‡ The test statistic is z! x Q W/ n ‡ We wish to reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative only if the sample mean and hence the value of the test statistic is small enough.

Another example« ‡ Rejection region: ‡ Assume z i  z E !  z. . 759 ! ! 21 .91) =0.63  22 6 / 220 ! .91 p-value = P(Z < -.1814 Conclusion: There is not enough evidence to infer that the mean is less than 22.28 4 .10 ! 1. 63 220 §x x ! 220 ‡ and z! x Q / n ! 21.

. because the rejection region is located in only one tail of the sampling distribution: ‡ More correctly.One± and Two±Tail Testing« ‡ The department store example was a one tail test. this was an example of a right tail test.

.One± and Two±Tail Testing« ‡ The µpayment period¶ example is a left tail test because the rejection region was located in the left tail of the sampling distribution.

Right-Tail Testing« ‡ Calculate the critical value of the mean ( ) and compare against the observed value of the sample mean ( )« .

Left-Tail Testing« ‡ Calculate the critical value of the mean ( ) and compare against the observed value of the sample mean ( )« .

Two±Tail Testing« ‡ Two tail testing is used when we want to test a research hypothesis that a parameter is not equal () to some value .

‡ They calculate the mean and standard deviation for all their customers at ¼17.09 and ¼3.09.Example ‡ KPN argues that its rates are such that customers won¶t see a difference in their phone bills between them and their competitors.09 . ‡ They then sample 100 customers at random and recalculate a monthly phone bill based on competitor¶s rates. We do this by assuming that: H0: = 17. ‡ What we want to show is whether or not: H1:  17.87 (respectively).

. The total area in the rejection region must sum to .Example ‡ The rejection region is set up so we can reject the null hypothesis when the test statistic is large or when it is small. so we divide this probability by 2. stat is ³small´ stat is ³large´ ‡ That is. we set up a two-tail rejection region.

we have /2 = .Example ‡ At a 5% significance level (i.96 and our rejection region is: ‡ z < ±1.025.e.96 -z.05).025 z . Thus.96 -orz > 1. = . z.025 0 +z.025 = 1.

Example ‡ From the data.96. nor less than ±1. ‡ There is insufficient evidence to infer that there is a difference between the bills of KPN and the competitor.96 we cannot reject the null hypothesis in favor of H1.19 is not greater than 1.55 ‡ Using our standardized test statistic: ‡ We find that: ‡ Since z = 1. we calculate = 17. .

Summary of One.and Two-Tail Tests« One-Tail Test (left tail) Two-Tail Test One-Tail Test (right tail) .

Probability of a Type II Error ± ‡ It is important that that we understand the relationship between Type I and Type II errors.34) . ± how the probability of a Type II error is calculated ± its interpretation. ‡ Recall previous example H0: = 170 H1: > 170 ‡ At a significance level of 5% we rejected H0 in favor of H1 since our sample mean (178) was greater than the critical value of (175.

which means that we will not install the new billing system.Probability of a Type II Error ± ‡ A Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is not rejected. ‡ In our example this means that if is less than 175. we can see that: = P( < 175.34 given that the null hypothesis is false) . ‡ Thus.34 (our critical value) we will not reject our null hypothesis.

For example. suppose the true mean account balance is ¼180. ‡ = P( < 175. given that = 180). thus« .Example ‡ = P( < 175.34 given that the null hypothesis is false) ‡ We need to compute for some new value of .34.

Example Our original hypothesis our new assumption .

Shifting the critical value line to the right (to decrease ) will mean a larger area under the lower curve for « (and vice versa) .Effects on of Changing . ‡ Consider this diagram again. increases the value of ‡ Decreasing the significance level and vice versa.

‡ Therefore. both of which are selected by the statistics practitioner.Judging the Test« ‡ A statistical test of hypothesis is effectively defined by the significance level ( ) and the sample size (n). n. if the probability of a Type II error ( to be too large. and/or increasing the sample size. we can reduce it by increasing . ) is judged .

Judging the Test« ‡ For example.000« ‡ The probability of a Type II error ( level while remains at 5% ) goes to a negligible . suppose we increased n from a sample size of 400 account balances to 1.

‡ It represents the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false. .Judging the Test« ‡ The power of a test is defined as 1± .

F (POWER) F .E Reject E 100 .Error Rates and Power (H0 and H1 = null and alternative hypothes) Fate of H0 Accept H0 Actually True H1 100 .

Factors Affecting Power ‡ Increasing overall sample size increases power ‡ Having unequal group sizes usually reduces power ‡ Larger size of effect being tested increases power ‡ Setting lower significance level decreases power ‡ Violations of assumptions underlying test often decrease power substantially .

Exercises ‡ Exercises z-test (see word document) .

The t-test .

X Q W n has a standard normal distribution. S introduces additional variability. ‡ Take random sample of size n from a N(Q. ± If n is small.W2) population.Recall t distribution. S n ± This is approximately normal if n is large. Thus this statistic will be more variable that a standard normal random variable. ‡ Consider X Q . ± This statistic follows a t distribution with n-1degrees of freedom. . S is not expected to be close to W.

Then ± If W is known. ‡ Suppose that the population is normally distributed with mean Q and variance W2.   xsz /2 W n ± If W is not known. x s tE / 2 (n  1) s n . a 100(1-E)% confidence interval for Q is.Confidence Intervals. a 100(1-E)% confidence interval for Q is.

.g.Overview of the t-test ‡ The t-test is used to help make decisions about population values. ‡ There are two main forms of the t-test. one for a single sample and one for two samples. ‡ The one sample t-test is used to test whether a population has a specific mean value ‡ The two sample t-test is used to test whether population means are equal. . e. do training and control groups have the same mean.

For example. alpha=0. Our confidence interval is. suppose we want to test whether the mean height of women at University of South Florida (USF) is less than 68 inches. 63. ‡The SD of height in the sample is 5. ‡We find that their mean height is 63. ‡We randomly sample 50 women students at USF.81. .01(find this in a t-table.05 plus/minus 1.05 inches.75 inches.One-sample t-test We can use a confidence interval to ³test´ or decide whether a population mean has a given value.63.75/sqrt(50) = . The critical value of t with (50-1) df is 2. Then we find the standard error of the mean by dividing SD by sqrt(N) = 5. therefore.025).

One-sample t-test example ne sample t test Confi ence inter al ei 10 N=50 8 Pop Mean = 68 M = 63.8 1 Histogram of Sample Height t=2.63 2 0 40 50 60 70 80 Take a sample. set a confidence interval around the sample mean.05 SD=5.01 4 Frequenc ci ! X s 1.75 6 S X ! . Does the interval contain the hypothesized value? ¡ Hei t i I c es in Inc .

it is very. very unlikely that we would find a sample with a mean as small as 63.1 1 t ! .05 inches. .8 1 SX 6 Frequenc 3 0 62 Height in Inches 70 The sample mean is roughly six standard deviations (St. If the population mean is really 68 inches.9 5 X  Q ! !  6 .95 9 S X ! .8 1  4 .One-sample t-test Example ne sample t test t istri ution iew 15 X ! 63.05 12 Q ! 68 t istri ution X  Q ! 4. Errors) from the hypothesized population mean.

females ± New training vs. ± means are just the same or different (nondirectional) ± or can predict one group higher (directional).Two-sample t-test ‡ Used when we have two groups. e. ± Experimental vs. .. control group ± Males vs. old training method ‡ Tests whether group population means are the same.g.

The standard deviation of the sampling distribution will be: 2 2 W X1  X 2 ! W X1  W X 2 The standard error of the difference is the root of the sum of squared standard errors of the mean. ‡If the two groups are sampled at random from 1 population. the mean of the differences in the long run will be zero because the mean for both groups will be the same. Suppose we do this over and over. ‡We will then have a sampling distribution of mean differences. ‡Then we subtract the mean for group 1 from the mean for group 2. ‡We measure the height of each person and find the mean for each group. .Sampling Distribution of Mean Differences ‡Suppose we sample 2 groups of size 50 at random from USF.

for the difference in means.Example of the Standard Error of the Difference in Means Suppose that at USF the mean height is 68 inches and the standard deviation of height is 6 inches. Suppose we sampled people 100 at a time into two groups. We would expect that the average mean difference would be zero.6.6 WX ! N W X1  X 2 ! W 2 X1 W 2 X2 36 36 72 !  ! ! .85.85 100 100 100 The standard error for each group mean is . What would the standard deviation of the distribution of differences be? SD 2 36 2 ! 100 WX ! N SD ! 6 / 10 ! . it is . .

Estimating the Standard Error of Mean Differences The USF scenario we just worked was based on population information. thus: S X1  X 2 ! S  S S 2 2 here S X ! N 2 X1 2 X2 All this says is that we replace the population variance of error with the appropriate sample estimators. . We usually estimate population values with sample data. That is: 2 2 W X1  X 2 ! W X1  W X 2 We generally don¶t have population values.

Pooled Standard Error S X1  X 2 ! S  S 2 X1 2 X2 We can use this formula when the sample sizes for the two groups are equal. S X1  X 2 2 (n1  1) s12  (n2  1) s2 ¨ 1 1 ¸ ©  ¹ ! (n1  1)  (n2  1) © n1 n2 ¹ ª º . where the weights are the groups¶ degrees of freedom. The pooled standard error is a weighted average. When the sample sizes are not equal across groups. we find the pooled standard error.

Back to the Two-Sample t The formula for the two-sample t-test for independent samples looks like this: t X1  X 2 X1  X 2 ! S X1  X 2 This says we find the value of t by taking the difference in the two sample means and dividing by the standard error of the difference in means. .

Empathy by College Major Suppose we have a professionally developed test of empathy. Scores come from comparing what people guess to what the people in the films said they felt at the time. We want to know whether Psychology majors have higher scores on average to this test than do Physics majors. . So we find some (N=15) of each major and give each the test.Example of the two-sample t. No direction. we just want to know if there is a difference. The test has people view film clips and guess what people in the clips are feeling.

Empathy Scores Person 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Psychology 10 12 13 10 8 15 13 14 10 12 10 12 13 10 8 Physics 8 14 12 8 12 9 10 11 12 13 8 14 12 8 12 .

28 df) 2 tail 2. n.87 Sqrt(.46/.59.78 .292 Calculation 11.84 .09 4.292+.323) .38/15=.05>.s.33 2. .78 15+15-2 2.46 .Empathy From data N Mean SD SD2 2 SX t X1  X 2 Physics 15 10.87 2.38 4.05.20 4.323 Result .59 28 X1  X 2 ! S X1  X 2 Psychology 15 11.33-10.05 Term X1  X 2 S X1  X 2 t df t(.

see word document .Exercise ‡ Exercises t-test.

Chi-square .

. Suppose there are n observations. . 1  2  3 . . Ok. or theoretical.Background: 1. Observed frequencies in each cell: O1. O1  O2  O3  . 2. O3. E3. kth k k Total n n . .  Ok ! n 4. 3. . frequencies: E1. Sum of the observed frequencies is n. Expected. O2. Ek.  k !n 1st bserved Frequency xpected Frequency 1 1 k ategories 2nd 3rd 2 2 3 3 . . « . Each observation falls into a cell (or class). E2.

2. Compare the observed frequencies with the expected frequencies. Large values of G2: Observed frequencies do not agree with expected frequencies. Methodology: Use a chi-square statistic: (O  E ) 2 G2 ! § E all cells Small values of G2: Observed frequencies close to expected frequencies. . Decide whether the observed frequencies seem to agree or seem to disagree with the expected frequencies.Goal: 1.

it is skewed to the right. G2 is not symmetrical. G2 is distributed so as to form a family of distributions. 3. G2 is nonnegative in value. . it is zero or positively valued. then G2* has approximately a chi-square distribution. a separate distribution for each different number of degrees of freedom. Recall: Properties of the Chi-Square Distribution: 1. 2.Sampling Distribution of G2*: When n is large and all expected frequencies are greater than or equal to 5.

Identified by degrees of freedom (df) and the area under the curve to the right of the critical value. See Table. E): critical value of a chi-square distribution with df degrees of freedom and E area to the right. 4. E ) G2 . E 0 G 2 (df .Critical values for chi-square: 1. Chi-square distribution is not symmetrical: critical values associated with right and left tails are given separately. 2. 3. G2(df.

/ 16 / G2(16.05) G2 Portion of Table Area to the right df .Example: Find G2(16.3 . 0.3 . 0.05 26.05) = 26.0. 0. 0.05).05 0 G 2 (16.

. . . . Test statistic: E all cells 3. Ha: At least two probabilities are incorrect. pk are correct.Testing Procedure: 1. Use a one-tailed critical region. Degrees of freedom: df = k  1. To ensure a good approximation to the chi-square distribution: Each expected frequency should be at least 5 ( Ei u 5). p2. the right-hand tail. 4. Expected frequencies: Ei ! n ™ pi 6. . 5. (O  E)2 G2 ! § 2. H0: The probabilities p1.

. The results are given in the following table: Cereal Frequency A 25 B 17 C 15 D 22 E 21 Total 100 Is there any evidence to suggest the consumers had a preference for one cereal.05. A sample of 100 consumers tried each cereal and indicated the cereal he or she preferred.Example: A market research firm conducted a consumer-preference experiment to determine which of 5 new breakfast cereals was the most appealing to adults. or did they indicate each cereal was equally likely to be selected? Use E = 0.

Assumptions: The 100 consumers represent a random sample. . b. 2. Population parameter of concern: Preference for each cereal. Test statistic: G2* with df = k  1 = 5  1 = 4 c. 1. the probability that a particular cereal is selected.2) = 20 consumers in each class. if no preference is given.05. The null and alternative hypotheses: H0: There was no preference shown (equally distributed).Solution: If no preference was shown. Thus. we expect the 100 consumers to be equally distributed among the 5 cereals. b. Level of significance: E = 0. The Set-up: a. we expect (100)(0. Ha: There was a preference shown (not equally distributed). The Hypothesis Test Criteria: a.

Sample information: Table given in the statement of the problem.25 0.45 1. Calculate the value of the test statistic: O 25 17 15 22 21 100 G2 = 3.3. The Sample Evidence: a.25 0.2 E 20 20 20 20 20 100 O E 5 -3 -5 2 1 0 (O E )2/E 1.05 3.20 . b.20 0.

4. b. The Results: a.05 level of significance. Using computer: P = 0. . 6. Critical value: G2(k  1.49 b.05) = G2(4. 0.05) = 9. G2* is not in the critical region. b. The Probability Distribution (Classical Approach): a.5429. The p-value: ! P ( G 2 * " 3. The Probability Distribution (p-Value Approach): a. 5. there is no evidence to suggest the consumers showed a preference for any one cereal. The p-value is larger than the level of significance. 0. Conclusion: At the 0. Decision: Fail to reject H0. E.2 | df ! 4).

. Rr and C1. C2. Used to test the independence of the row factor and the column factor. j Row total v Column tot al Ri v C j ! ! n Grand total Each Ei. Degrees of freedom: d ! ( r  1) ™ (c  1) n = grand total. R1. . r: number of rows. 4. Ei . . . 5.j should be at least 5. . c: number of columns. R2. Expected frequency in the ith row and the jth column: 3. . Cc: marginal totals. 6.r v c Contingency Table: 1. 2. . .

16 E all cells 2 .25) (11.69) 17 12 18 47 (19.59) 10 16 15 41 (17.33) (17.77) (12.03) (12.64) (14.98) (15.Contingency table showing sample results and expected values: Tax Reform Yes No Unsure Total Political Party Democrat Republican Independent Total 34 11 12 57 (23.72) 61 39 45 145 (O  E ) 2 G *! § ! 14.

The Probability Distribution (Classical Approach): a. The Results: a. E. The p-value is smaller than the level of significance. G2* is in the critical region. . 4. 0. Conclusion: There is evidence to suggest that opinion on tax reform and political party are not independent.16 | df ! 4) By computer: P = 0.3 b. b.4.01) = 13. Decision: Reject H0.0068. The p-value: ! P ( G 2 * " 14. The Probability Distribution (p-Value Approach): a. b. 5. Critical value: G2(4.

ANOVA Analysis of Variance .

From t to F« ‡ In the independent samples t test. ‡ Suppose. you learned how to use the t distribution to test the hypothesis of no difference between two population means. that we wish to know about the relative effect of three or more different ³treatments´? . however.

From t to F« ‡ We could use the t test to make comparisons among each possible combination of two means. ± It is tedious to compare all possible combinations of groups. ± There are so many comparisons that some will be significant by chance. this method is inadequate in several ways. . ‡ However. ± Any statistic that is based on only part of the evidence (as is the case when any two groups are compared) is less stable than one based on all of the evidence.

From t to F« ‡ What we need is some kind of survey test that will tell us whether there is any significant difference anywhere in an array of categories. ‡ If it tells us no. ‡ Such an overall test of significance is the F test. or ANOVA. . or the analysis of variance. there will be no point in searching further.

you are asking about the variances among those means. ‡ This question about means is answered by analyzing variances. you focus on variances because when you want to know how several means differ.The logic of ANOVA ‡ Hypothesis testing in ANOVA is about whether the means of the samples differ more than you would expect if the null hypothesis were true. . ± Among other reasons.

Two Sources of Variability
‡ In ANOVA, an estimate of variability between groups is compared with variability within groups. ± Between-group variation is the variation among the means of the different treatment conditions due to chance (random sampling error) and treatment effects, if any exist. ± Within-group variation is the variation due to chance (random sampling error) among individuals given the same treatment.

ANOVA
Total Variation Among Scores

Within Groups Variation Variation due to chance.

Between Groups Variation Variation due to chance and treat ent effect (if any exi ti .

Variability Between Groups

‡ There is a lot of variability from one mean to the next. ‡ Large differences between means probably are not due to chance. ‡ It is difficult to imagine that all six groups are random samples taken from the same population. ‡ The null hypothesis is rejected, indicating a treatment effect in at least one of the groups.

Variability Within Groups

‡ Same amount of variability between group means. ‡ However, there is more variability within each group. ‡ The larger the variability within each group, the less confident we can be that we are dealing with samples drawn from different populations.

The F Ratio

Between GroupVariability F! Within GroupVariability

ANOVA (F)
Total Variation Among Scores Within- roups Variation Variation due to chance. Between- roups Variation Variation due to chance and treatment effect (if any existis).

Two Sources of Variability
Variabilit y Bet een Groups ! Variabilit y Within Groups

F

1

Two Sources of Variability
Variabilit y Bet een Groups ! Variabilit y Within Groups

F !1

The F Ratio

ANOVA (F)
Total Variation Among Scores Within- roups Variation Variation due to chance. Between- roups Variation Variation due to chance and treatment effect (if any existis).

Mean Squares Within

Mean Squares Between

MSbetween F! MSwithin

mean squares between mean squares within

The F Ratio

MSbetween F! MSwithin
sum of squares within sum of squares between

MSwithin

SSwithin ! dfwithin

MSbetween

SSbetween ! df between

degrees of freedom within

degrees of freedom between

s !

2

§(X  X)
n 1

2

Sum of Squares Degrees of Freedom

The F Ratio MSbetween F! MSwithin MSwithin SSwithin ! dfwithin sum of squares total MSbetween SSbetween ! df between SStotal ! SSbetween  SSwithin degrees of freedom total dftotal ! dfbetween  dfwithin .

then 2 2 T G square the total) een !7 n  N Total number of subjects. and divide by the number of Grand Total (add all of the subjects in the group. square it.The F Ratio: SS Between SS between ! n7( X group  X grand ) 2 SS bet Find each group total. . scores together.

. n Number of subjects in each group. 2 SS within ! 7X  7 2 Squared group total.The F Ratio: SS Within 2 SS within ! 7( X  X group ) Square each individual score and then add up all of the squared scores.

then add all of the squared scores together. Total number of subjects.The F Ratio: SS Total SS total ! 7( X  X grand ) 2 ! ( X group  X grand )  ( X  X group ) SStotal G ! §X  N 2 2 Grand Total (add all of the scores together. . then square the total) Square each score.

An Example: ANOVA ‡ A study compared the intensity of pain among three groups of treatment. Treatment 1 7 6 5 6 Treatment 2 12 8 9 11 Treatment 3 8 10 12 10 . ‡ Determine the significance of the difference among groups. using the .05 level of significance.

.An Example: ANOVA ‡ State the research hypothesis. ± Do ratings of the intensity of pain differ for the three treatments? ‡ State the statistical hypothesis. H 0 : Q1 ! Q 2 ! Q3 H A : H 0 is false.

all may be different.Nondirectional Test ‡ In testing the hypothesis of no difference between two means. ‡ A directional test is possible only in situations where there are only two ways (directions) that the null hypothesis could be false. a distinction was made between directional and nondirectional alternative hypotheses. ‡ H0 may be false in any number of ways. and so on. . ‡ Such a distinction no longer makes sense when the number of means exceeds two. ± Two or more group means may be alike and the remainder differ.

1 ‡ Within: df within ! n1  1  n 2  1  n3  1. df within ! total number o sub ects .Degrees of Freedom ‡ Between: df between ! number o groups ...total number o groups .

An Example: ANOVA ‡ Set decision rule. E ! .05 df between ! number o groups  1 ! 3  1 ! 2 df within ! ( n1  1)  ( n 2  1)  ( n3  1) ! ( 4  1)  ( 4  1)  ( 4  1) ! 9 .

An Example: ANOVA ‡ Set the decision rule.26 . E ! .05 df between ! 2 df within ! 9 Fcrit ! 4.

Treatment A 7 6 5 6 T:24 49 36 25 36 146 X2 Treatment B 12 8 9 11 T:40 144 64 81 121 410 X2 Treatment C 8 10 12 10 T:40 64 100 144 100 408 X2 SS within T2 ! 7X  7 n 2 Grand Total: 104 SS within « 24 2 40 2 40 2 » ! 146  410  408  ¬   144 ¼ ! 964  ?  400  400A ! 20 4 4 4 ½ ­ .An Example: ANOVA ‡ Calculate the test statistic.

An Example: ANOVA ‡ Calculate the test statistic.67 4 4 4 12 . Treatment A 7 6 5 6 T:24 49 36 25 36 146 X2 Treatment B 12 8 9 11 T:40 144 64 81 121 410 X2 Treatment C 8 10 12 10 T:40 64 100 144 100 408 X2 SS between T 2 G2 !7  n N Grand Total: 104 SS between 24 2 40 2 40 2 (104) 2 !    ! 144  400  400  901.33 ! 42.

22 .61 MS within 2.22 df within 9 MS between 21.34 df between 2 SS within 20 ! ! ! 2.34 ! ! ! 9.An Example: ANOVA MS between ! MS within MS between MS within SS between 42.67 ! ! ! 21.

22 F 9. Source Between Groups Within Groups Total df 2 9 11 SS 42.67 MS 21. ± Reject H0.61 . ± There is a significant difference between the treatments. 9.67 20 62. the ANOVA results are often summarized in a table.34 2. ‡ ANOVA Summary Table ± In the literature.An Example: ANOVA ‡ Determine if your result is significant.26 ‡ Interpret your results.61>4.

‡ Post hoc tests have been designed for doing pair-wise comparisons after a significant F is obtained. that there is a real difference somewhere among our means. . with some degree of confidence. ‡ But if there are more than two groups.After the F Test ‡ When an F turns out to be significant. we don¶t know where that difference is. we know.

± The 5 in the control condition are given no special information about the paintings. Does what people are told about paintings make a difference in how well they are liked? Use the . Famous 10 7 5 10 8 Critically Acclaimed 5 1 3 7 4 No Information 4 6 9 3 3 .Exercise 6: ANOVA A psychologist interested in artistic preference randomly assigns a group of 15 subjects to one of three conditions in which they view a series of unfamiliar abstract paintings.01 level of significance. ± The 5 participants in the ³critically acclaimed´ condition are led to believe that these are paintings that are not famous but are highly thought of by a group of professional art critics. ± The 5 participants in the ³famous´ condition are led to believe that these are each famous paintings.

Linear models .

b .yi}.. n>2 y = a*x + b x = predictor y = predicted value (outcome) a = slope b= y-axes intercept Goal: determine parameters a.. i=1.n..Review linear regression Simplest form Fit a straight line through data points {xi .

Review linear regression Find values for a and b such that sum of squared error is minimized .

Review linear regression Predicted values y*=ax+b Measurments y n minimize R ( a. b) ! §(y i !1 n i !1 * i  yi ) 2 ! § ((axi  b)  yi ) 2 A minimum of a function (R) is characterized by a zero first derivative with respect to the parameters .

1   ! 2 ™ (1.1) ! 2.2 dx dy x !0  ! 2 ™ (0) ! 0 dx .Intermezzo: minimum of function dy ! 2x y!x   dx dy min y   ! 2x ! 0 dx  x!0 2 dy x ! 1.

Review linear regression A minimum of a function (R) is characterized by a zero first derivative with respect to the parameters this provides the parameter values for the model function .

b) ! § ((axi  b )  yi ) i !1 n 2 x ( a. b) n ! § ( axi  b  yi )xi ! 0 xa i !1 x ( a. b) n ! § ( axi  b  yi ) ! 0 xb i !1 a Explicit expressions for parameters a and b!! .Review linear regression minimize (a.

.Linear and nonlinear models 1 ‡ (non) linear in the parameters ( . ) ‡ Examples of linear models y= + x (linear) y= + x+ x2 (polynomial) y= + log(x) (log) .

Example: y ! 2 x  ax 2 y varies linear with a for fixed x .

Example: y ! a log( x) y varies linear with a for fixed x .

Linear and nonlinear models 2 y= + 1x1 + 2x2 + -linear model (in parameters) -y is linear combination of x¶s 0 F1 2 y ! F 0   F 2 x2 x1 -y is not a linear combination of x¶s -linear in the parameters -We can use MLR if variables are transformed x1¶=1/x1 x2¶=x2 y = 0 + 1x1¶ + 2x2¶ + .

Linear and nonlinear models 3 ‡ Models like y!e F0  F1 x cannot be linearized and must be solved with nonlinear regression techniques .

slope of line at fixed x is not constant) y ! e F0  F1x dy ! xe F0  F1x d F1 Nonlinear model y = log(x) dy/d = log(x) Linear model y = 0 + 1x1 + dy/d 1 = x1 Linear model 2x 2 .Linear and nonlinear models 4 ‡ Nonlinear model: At least one of the derivatives of the function wrt the parameters depends on at least one of the parameters (thus.

Significance testing and multiple testing correction .

05 threshold. ‡ Assume that all of the observations are explainable by the null hypothesis. ‡ What is the chance that at least one of the observations will receive a p-value less than 0. but you repeat the test on twenty different observations.05? .Multiple testing ‡ Say that you perform a statistical test with a 0.

358 = 0.Multiple testing Say that you perform a statistical test with a 0.05 Pr(not making a mistake) = 0.2% chance of making at least one mistake.642 There is a 64.0.358 Pr(making at least one mistake) = 1 . what is the chance that at least one of the observations will receive a p-value less than 0.9520 = 0.05? ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Pr(making a mistake) = 0. Assuming that all of the observations are explainable by the null hypothesis.95 Pr(not making any mistake) = 0. .05 threshold. but you repeat the test on twenty different observations.

. Thus only 5% of making wrong decision.Percentage sugar in candy (process 1) Percentage sugar in candy (process 2) no difference statistical test (alpha=0.05) 100 candy bars 100 candy bars 5% change of finding a difference Suppose the company is required to do an expensive tuning of process 2 if a difference is found. They are willing to accept an Type 1 error of 5%.

2% Day 20 statistical test (alpha=0.05) .05) statistical test (alpha=0.05) Change of 64.2% of finding at least one significant difference Overall Type 1 error = 64.Percentage sugar in candy (process 1) Percentage sugar in candy (process 2) no difference Day 1 Day 2 statistical test (alpha=0.

0.0025 Pr(not making a mistake) = 0.0488 «meaning that the probability of one of the total number of tests being wrongfully said to be significantly different is of magnitude alpha (0.9512 Pr(making at least one mistake) = 1 .0025.0.9975 Pr(not making any mistake) = 0.Bonferroni correction ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Assume that individual tests are independent.05 / 20 = 0. which is that many tests that should show an effect get below the corrected threshold. Divide the desired p-value threshold by the number of tests performed. It is clear though that this highly increases the beta error (false negative).0488) This is also known as correcting for the Family Wise Error (FWE).9512 = 0. . For the previous example. Pr(making a mistake) = 0.997520 = 0.

0025) statistical test (alpha=0.88% Day 20 statistical test (alpha=0.0025) Change of 4.Percentage sugar in candy (process 1) Percentage sugar in candy (process 2) no difference Day 1 Day 2 statistical test (alpha=0.0025) .88% of finding at least one significant difference Overall Type 1 error = 4.

Multiple comparison # of nonrejected hypotheses #Ho = true U # of rejected hypotheses V (false positives) m0 # Ho = false T (false negatives) S m1 m-R R ³discoveries´ m .2.

the proportion of false discoveries among the discoveries (0 if none found) FDR = E(Q) Does it make sense? .The False Discovery Rate (FDR) criterion Benjamini and Hochberg R = # rejected hypotheses = # discoveries of these may be in error = # false discoveries The error (type I) in the entire study is measured by V Q! R !0 R"0 R!0 i.e.

unbearable So this error rate is adaptive The same argument holds when inspecting 10.Does it make sense? Inspecting 100 features: ‡ 3 false ones among 60 discovered .bearable ‡ 3 false ones among 4 discovered .000 So this error rate is scalable .

. FDR procedure) ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ Order the p-values P(1) ” P(2) ”«” P(m) Let k ! ax{i:p(i) e(i / m)q} 0 1) Reject .. 0 k) If no such k exists reject none . Linear step up procedure (BH procedure.. 0 2) .FDR controlling proceures..

0004700 0.00025 0.0000056 0.0000013 0.0000235 0.00005 0.00010 0.00015 0.0008900 1.0000012 0.0000078 0. for all the genes above it.05000 p-value 0. effective p-value threshold is 0.05 m=1000 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 « 1000 (j )/m 0. ‡ Approximately 5% of the examples above the line are expected to be false positives. (jq)/m is larger than the corresponding pvalue.0000945 0.0000008 0.00045 0.00035 0.FDR example q=0.0002450 0.0002450 .00030 0.00020 0.00050 0.0000000 ‡ Choose the threshold so that. Thus.00040 0.

For example if the algorithm returns 100 genes with a false discovery rate of . In the example above a set of 100 predictions of which 70 are correct might be very useful.5 or even higher might be quite meaningful. especially if there are thousands of genes on the array most of which are not differentially expressed.3 is generally unacceptabe in any circumstance.3 then we should expect 70 of them to be correct. Meanwhile an FDR of as high as . and as such a much higher FDR can be tolerated than with a p-value. In contrast p-value of . ‡ The FDR is very different from a p-value.FDR and p-value ‡ The False Discovery Rate (FDR) of a set of predictions is the expected percent of false predictions in the set of predictions. .

g. Choose FWER if high confidence in ³ALL´ selected genes is desired (for example. 2.False discovery rate When to use FWER and when to use FDR? FWER=Pr(V>0)=Pr(at least one false positives) FDR=E(Q)=E(V/R) 1. . Loss of power due to strong control of type-I error. gene discovery). selecting candidate genes for RTPCR validation). Use more flexible FDR procedures if certain proportions of false positives are tolerable (e.

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