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Arved Harding

Statistician Eastman Chemical Company

Material is taken from a TCQF presentation by Arved Harding and Kevin White presented in 2004. Some examples and datasets are taken from MINITAB Statistical Quality Analysis training materials.

Hillbilly a Harding Native of Wise, VA Currently in Blountville, TN Christian United Methodist Family Man Wife + 2 boys Graduate of UVA College at Wise - B.S. in Math, 1985 M.S. in Statistics, Va. Tech, 1988 Employee of Eastman Chemical Company for 20 Years (5/10/08) Associate Statistician

Active volunteer and leader in the Northeast 18.5 years experience in supporting Polymers and TN Section of the PET R&D, Technical Service and Manufacturing as American Society for well as physical and analytical testing labs. Quality (ASQ) 1.5 years supporting organizations related to Adhesives, Coatings and Cellulose Esters

Continuous Data Variation (Short-Term and Long-Term) Stability Index Process Capability Indices (Normal Data) Process Performance Indices (Normal Data) Dealing with Non-normal data

Common Cause Noise Predictable Routine No Assignable Cause Expected Special Cause Signal Not Predictable Exceptional Assignable Cause Unusual

The control chart is the tool used to distinguish between common and special causes The control limits represent the expected variation due to common cause

Control Chart

UCL COMMON CAUSE CL

LCL

2 4 6 8 101214161820222426283032

Run Order

Control Limits - often called voice of the process and used to identify special causes of variation.

A stable (or in control) process is one in which the key process responses and product properties show no signs of special causes. An unstable (or out of control) process has both common and special causes present.

Long-Term

Measurement

Measurement

Time

Short-Term

Time

Long-Term Short-Term

Long-Term

Measurement

Measurement

Time

Short-Term

Short-Term Long-Term

Time

Long-Term

Measurement

Measurement

Short-Term

Long-Term Short-Term

Time

Time

Measurement

Measurement

Short-Term Long-Term

Time

Short-term (

capability

S T

Long-term (

variation

L T

common causes

common and special causes

a subgroup or between successive values

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chart limits

S T

S T

Long-term (

L T

L T

= R / d2 = s / c4 = MR / d2

i=1

Xi X 2 n1

S T

S T

10

Sigma Short-term and sigma long-term (previous slide) can be calculated on any dataset regardless whether there are 10 observations or 1000 observationsand regardless whether the data covers one week or one year. A "long-term sigma" calculated using 10 observations over one week is not a true "long-term sigma" because you don't have "long-term DATA". The amount of time covered is as important as the amount of data. Rule of Thumb < 1 Month Short-Term Data 1 to 3 Months Judgment Call >3 Months Long-Term Data

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L T S T

For a stable process, you would expect index values near 1. For an unstable process, you would expect index values greater than 1. Rule of Thumb < 1.33 Good Process Stability. 1.33 to 1.67 Marginal Process Stability. > 1.67 Major Process Stability Issues.

Note: For use when n>75. If n<75, consider using <1.5, 1.5-2.0, and >2.0. Do not use when n<30

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-3

+3

LSL

USL

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Specification Limits - often called voice of the customer and used to determine if the product meets a customer requirement. Usually stated as a LSL and USL but sometimes you may only have one of these. A capable process is a stable process that demonstrates the ability to meet customer requirements. (A purist definition The simple fact is that no process is stable forever and ever and we still need to address the capability of our processes in the presence of instability) When we talk capability indices, we're now comparing the process variation (and sometimes average) to the specification limits. Before when we were talking stability, we were comparing the process variation to the control limits.

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Cp Pp

and Cpk address short-term capability and Ppk address long-term performance

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-3

+3

LSL

USL

S e W th(d o p c id o r*)

U L-L L S S = 3

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Cp =

M Cp b (c r) fg a a ility a

LSL USL

Cp =

USL - LSL 6 ST

The average is not part of the formula. A measure of potential "best case" process capability if stable and on-target. Can be misleading if process is unstable or off target. Must have both a LSL and USL to calculate.

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Lower Spec. 0.4 Limit

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Cust. Tolerance

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -8 -6

Cust. Tolerance

-4

-2

Process Capability

Process Capability

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Cp=1

Cp=2

Lower Spec. Limit

Cust. Tolerance

0.4

0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -5.33 -4.0 -2.67 -1.33 0 1.33 2.67 4.0 5.33

0.4 0.3

Cust. Tolerance

0.2 0.1 0.0 -5.33 -4.0 -2.67 -1.33 0 1.33 2.67 4.0 5.33

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LSL USL

Cpk =

S T

Cpk < 1 - not capable Cpk = 1 - marginally capable Cpk > 1 - capable

avg

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Cp = Cpk if process is on target. Still a measure of potential capability if the process is stable. Can be used for 1-sided specs. (Cpu , Cpl ) A negative Cpk is possible if the average is outside specifications.

LSL USL

Pp =

USL - LSL 6 LT

Pp < 1 - not meeting specs Pp = 1 - marginally meeting specs Pp > 1 - meeting specs

Considered a Process Performance Index If stable, Cp = Pp Can be misleading if process is off target.

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LSL USL

Ppk =

L T

Ppk < 1 - not meeting specs Ppk = 1 - marginally meeting specs Ppk > 1 - meeting specs

If stable, Cpk = Ppk If on target, Pp = Ppk If stable and on target, Cp = Ppk Can be used for 1-sided specs. (Ppu , Ppl ) Best indicator of actual process performance. A negative Ppk is possible if the average is outside specifications.

avg

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Summary of Indices

Cp is the best indicator of potential process capability because it assumes a stable and on-target process. Cpk is an indicator of potential process capability if the process is stable. It does take into consideration if the process is off-target. Pp is an indicator of actual process performance if the process is on-target. It does take into consideration the long-term variability. Ppk is the best indicator of actual process performance because it considers the process average and longterm variability.

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Sometimes it is desirable to operate the process at a target that is not midway between the specification limits. Cpk can still be used to estimate defect levels but does not reflect whether the process is centered on the target. Use Cpm for this.

Cpm =

USL - LSL

S T

+ (avg-tgt)2

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Example and datasets taken from MINITAB Statistical Quality Analysis training materials.

Problem An electronic cable manufacturer coats the outside of cables to maximize strength and durability. LSL=39 mils, USL = 43 mils, Target = 41 mils. Customers want a Cpk>1.5. Data Collection Operators randomly select 5 cable samples at regular intervals. These samples adequately represent the inherent variation of the process at that time. The operators record the thickness of the outer coating of each cable sample. 65 subgroups were selected. A sample of the spreadsheet is shown.

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Add the Column name for the data and subgroup as shown. Add the Lower and Upper Spec and click on Options to add the Target. This will add Cpm to the output. Notice, if available and desired a Historical Mean and Standard Deviation can be added that will affect the calculation of some Indices.

27

Click on the Tests button to get access to several statistical tests to be done on your control chart.

28

MINITAB uses AIAG guidelines to determine which control chart to display.

Subgroup Size 1 2-8 9 or more Charts I & MR Xbar & R Xbar and S

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Note that the P-value for the Anderson Darling test being less than 0.05 would indicate a concern that the data is coming from a process that is not well modeled by a Normal Distribution.

We want to get rid of the first 15 subgroups or 75 data points. Choose Data> Subset Worksheet Specify which rows to Include or Exclude. This creates a new Worksheet with the Subsetted data.

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What information can you glean from this? The control chart is on the averages, why is the capability histogram and analysis on the Individual data?

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32

Add the Column name for the data and subgroup as shown. Add the Lower and Upper Spec Click on Options to add the Target. This will add Cpm to the output. Also check the Include confidence interval box. If desired under display choose Percents

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Look at all the neat Indices and their Confidence Intervals. Getting them is easy; learning to interpret them is the hard part. Note that the Observed Performance is related to how many data points fall out of spec. The Expected Performance is related to the assumed distribution.

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35

After engineers found a way to center the process.

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After engineers found a way to reduce the process variation.

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After engineers found a way to reduce the process variation.

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A

manufacturer of galvanized iron wants to assess the capability of the process. The manufacturer requires the surface roughness less than 1.5675 x 10-4 m Engineers collect iron coil samples in subgroups of size 10 and record the surface roughness after the galvanization process.

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Dialog for Capability Sixpack>Normal

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Why

would the control charts say its stable but the histogram says its non-normal. The control charts indicate a stable process, though one that is not modeled well by a normal distribution. So lets establish a useful model that fits the data.

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What

does your gut say? Is there a distribution that this data should be following, according to conventional wisdom? If you have no prior knowledge of a reasonable model for the process, use Minitabs individual distribution identification tools to find a model that adequately fits the data. If non-normality arises from special causes, using non-normal methods is not appropriate.

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For x-bar charts with sample size of 10 it is rarely going to matter. For the capability analyses we calculate a % or ppm expected within specs to get a Sigma level. We also calculate Cp, Cpk, These are sensitive to the assumption of normality. If normality is incorrectly assumed then the estimated proportion of non-conforming items may be overestimated or underestimated.

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Why

is it called Individual Distribution Identification? What is the distribution of the averages? Allows you to fit your data with up to 14 different distributions. Select a distribution based on the probability plot, goodness-of-fit test results and process knowledge.

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48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

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See

MINITAB Help (See Help>Methods and Formulas>Random data and Probability distributions Look in textbooks Try generating random data using MINITABs Calc>Random Data function. You can try different distributions and different parameters to see what they do.

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Thank You

Questions?

Arved Harding can be reached for questions at aharding@eastman.com (423) 229-4957

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THANKS TO KEVIN WHITE, OTHER GOOD STUFF FOLLOWS THAT MIGHT BE USEFUL AS A REFERENCE.

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Cp Cpk

3(Cp-Cpk)

= The number of short-term standard deviations the average is from the target. 3(Pp-Ppk) = The number of long-term standard deviations the average is from the target.

60

All

of these indices together can give you direction on your improvement opportunities They help tell you whether you need to

Work on special causes (instability) Work on common cause (capability) Move the average (target issue) Or some combination or the above

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Since Ppk is the best indicator of actual process performance, it is the best indicator of whether improvement is needed overall.

Ppk < 1.0 implies "bad stuff" is being produced and improvement is needed Ppk between 1.0 and 1.5 is indicative of 100% conforming product. However, additional instability could easily lead to out of specification material. Processes in this category may or may not need improvement depending on the value. Ppk > 1.5 is also indicative of 100% conforming product. These processes have some "room" to handle additional moderate instability without having out of specification material. Only improve if there is value to be gained.

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Stability

< 1.33 process is relatively stable 1.33 to 1.67 process stability is marginal > 1.67 process stability is a potential concern

Have

to keep in mind that it may not be a high priority if Ppk is still very good (say > 1.5)

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Cp is the guide < 1.0 need to improve common cause variability 1.0 to 1.5 common cause variability is marginally acceptable. Don't have much "room" for instability (process upsets) > 1.5 common cause variability is acceptable (If Ppk is still poor, it is primarily due to either stability or offtarget issues and those should be the focus of improvement efforts)

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The

number of short-term standard deviations from target is the guide. Recall, this can be calculated from the indices as 3(Cp-Cpk).

< 0.5 Process is relatively close to target 0.5 to 1.0 Opportunity exists to improve > 1.0 Process is considerably off-target and should be worked on provided there is value in doing so.

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It

is recommended that a routine report (monthly, quarterly, or bi-annual) be created that shows this type of information for all key processes and responses. With some simple color coding, it can easily help you identify improvement opportunities.

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Example Report #1

3 Quarter 2004

rd

Process 1

Response 1 Response 2 Response 3 Response 4 Response 5

Avg 70 2.5 8 45 98

Short- LongTerm Term Sigma Sigma 1 1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 2 5.1 0.21 0.21

LSL 65 0 6 40 97

USL 75 5 10 60 100

Process 2

Response 1 Response 2 Response 3 1.11 2.08 0.62 1.11 2.08 0.95 1.11 2.78 0.87 1.11 2.78 1.33 1.00 1.33 1.40 0.00 0.00 1.40 70 2.5 7.3 1.5 0.3 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.7 65 0 6 70 2.5 8 75 5 10

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Example Report #2

XYZ Process, Response ABC Quarter and Year

1Q 2003 2Q 2003 3Q 2003 4Q 2003 1Q 2004 2Q 2004 3Q 2004 ShortTerm Sigmas From Target 0.56 0.34 0.37 0.20 0.00 0.70 0.55

Short- LongTerm Term Sigma Sigma 0.54 1.03 0.59 0.98 0.54 1.10 0.49 0.99 0.52 0.95 0.57 0.95 0.55 1.05

LSL 65 65 65 65 65 65 65

Target 70 70 70 70 70 70 70

USL 75 75 75 75 75 75 75

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One-Sided

Specifications Editing Data Importance of Normality Sample Size Six Sigma and Process Capability Some Less Common Indices

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One-Sided Specifications

At times, your characteristics may only have a LSL or USL and no target.

Performance

Ppk 2 sided 1 sided

Stability

Stability Index 2 sided 1 sided <1.33 >1.67 <1.33 >1.67 1.33-1.67 1.33-1.67

Capability

Cp 2 sided >1.5 1.0-1.5 <1.0 1 sided NA NA NA

Target

Sigma C from Tgt 2 sided 1 sided <0.5 0.5-1.0 >1.0 NA NA NA

Good --Bad

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Use Cpk with the same guidelines as Cp. Since there is no target, the issue of whether the shortterm variability and the process average are adequate becomes confounded. If the Cpk is in the "bad" zone, then it can be improved by either reducing the short-term variability OR by moving the average. Knowledge of the process would be needed to make the best decision. (NOTE: If you have one spec and a target, use Cpk in place of Cp but still use the "Sigma C from Tgt" guidelines.)

Editing Data

If you have an unstable process, you should consider editing your data for the purpose of estimating the short-term standard deviation. This mostly deals with the editing of ranges or moving ranges. Do not edit more than 5-10% of the values. Make one pass through by excluding values above the upper control limit for the range. Do not edit or eliminate data in estimating your long-term standard deviation. The only possible exception here is having some sort of "blunder" edit. Use good judgment.

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Normality

THE INDICES DISCUSSED ASSUME THE INDIVIDUAL DATA POINTS FOLLOW A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION.

1. Check normality by looking at histogram of individual data points. 2. If not normal, why? Is process unstable? Data up against a physical boundary? (yield, impurities) Time oriented data? (time between failures - exponential) Discreteness of continuous data Other? 3. If the underlying process produces data that is non-normal, a data transformation is appropriate. Be sure to transform the specs too! 4. Calculate Indices after transformation.

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The

Cp > 2 Ppk > 1.5 This corresponds to having a stability index < 1.33 OR a process that is off-target by no more than 1.5 short-term standard deviations

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Cpm =

USL - LSL

S T

+ (avg-tgt)2 1 = Cp

Cr =

6 ST USL - LSL

74

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