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Design of Experiments

Lecture 5

Continuous Random Variables
Continuous random variable: the outcome can be any value in an interval or collection of intervals.
Probability density function for a continuous random variable X is a curve such that the area under the curve over an interval equals the probability that X is in that interval. P(a e X e b) = area under density curve over the interval between the values a and b.

P(X=120) = 0 . P(110 < X < 120) Area under the curve = probability Area under whole curve = 1 Probability of getting specific number is 0.Continuous probability density functions     The curve describes probability of getting any range of values. say P(X > 120).g. P(X<100). e.

10)(10) = 1 This is an example of a Uniform random variable . Person arrives at stop at a random time.10 so total area under the curve is (0.Example: Time Spent Waiting for Bus Bus arrives at stop every 10 minutes. Note: Height is 0. how long will s/he have to wait? X = waiting time until next bus arrives. X is a continuous random variable over 0 to 10 minutes.

1) = .Example: Waiting for Bus (cont) What is the probability the waiting time X was in the interval from 5 to 7 minutes? Probability = area under curve between 5 and 7 = (base)(height) = (2)(.2 .

.Density Curves and Normal Distributions  A density curve is a smooth curve used to approximate a histogram.

then:  f(x) • 0 for all values of x g  The area under f(x) = 1.Properties of density curves If f(x) is a density curve. ´ f(x) ! 1 g  The frequency of observations having values b between a and b is ´a f(x) .

Normal Distribution       Intro to continuous probability distributions Standardizing random variables General features of normal distributions The standard normal distribution Probability calculations with normal distributions Normal approximation to the binomial distribution .

Normal Distribution The most important continuous probability distribution is the normal distribution BELL SHAPE Random variables with a normal distribution have a bellshaped probability distribution (histogram). .

The mean and standard deviation affect the shape of the normal distribution Smaller standard deviation Larger standard deviation .

and its standard deviation. bell-shaped. The normal distribution is the ³bell curve´ that is found in many settings. . 1 f( x ) ! e W 2T 1 ¨ xQ ¸  © ¹ 2ª W º 2 . . and is W completely defined by its mean. Q A normal distribution is symmetric.The Normal Distribution By far the most important and widely used density curve is that describing the normal distribution.

2) N(12.2) N(10. 4) .N(10.

The 68-95-99. W ) 68% 95% 99.7 Rule N( Q.7% Q  3W Q  2W Q  W Q Q  W Q  2W Q  3W .

000 and standard deviation $20. What percentage of houses cost between $150.Suppose that the prices of new homes in Wake county are described well by a normal distribution with mean $170.000.000 and $190.000? 68% 150 170 190 .

000? 50%+47.Suppose that the prices of new homes in Wake county are described well by a normal distribution with mean $170.000. What percentage of houses cost less than $210.5% 170 210 .000 and standard deviation $20.5%=97.5% 50% 47.

We standardize a value by calculating a z-score telling us how many standard deviation units away from the mean.7 Rule points out the fact that all normal distributions share certain properties. Q. It turns out that if we measure in units of standard deviations. all normal distributions are the same. it is: z! xQ . W.Standardizing Observations: z-scores The universality of the 68-95-99.

What percentage of houses cost between $150.000: .Suppose that the prices of new homes in Wake county are described well by a normal distribution with mean $170.000? 150.000.000 For $190. 000 190.000  170.000: 20.000 and $190. 000 z! ! 1 For $150. 000 z! !1 20.000 and standard deviation $20.000  170.

If a variable X has a N(Q.1) distribution is called the standard normal distribution. This property allows us to carry out virtually all calculations involving normal distributions by using the N(0. W) distribution.The Standard Normal Distribution The N(0. then the standardized variable Z! XQ has a N(0. .1) distribution.1) distribution.

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54. Answer: 0.54 .Find the area under the standard normal density curve left of -1.0630 -1.

5 under the N(0.3085 .1) curve.Weighting times on a customer service phone line follow a normal distribution with mean 8 minutes and standard deviation 2 minutes. What percentage of callers wait more than 11 minutes? 11  10 z! ! 0.0.5 2 The area right of 11 is equal to 1 minus the area left of 11. which is equal to 1 minus the area left of 0.6915 = 0. Using Table A we find: 1 .

L(z) = Area left of z. zHi) = L(zHi) . R(z) = Area right of z. zHi) = Area between zLo and zHi. B(zLo. 2.L(z) 3. Directly from Table A.L(zLo) . R(z) = 1 . B(zLo.Calculations using the standard normal distribution fall into one of three categories: 1.

675. Above what length are the longest 25% of the calls? Using Table A.Weighting times on a customer service phone line follow a normal distribution with mean 8 minutes and standard deviation 2 minutes.25 is z=0.675 ! 2 0. we find that the z-score corresponding to R(z) = 0.35 ? . We can now invert the standardization Formula to find the call length: x  10 0.675  10 ! 11.25 x ! 2 v 0.

validity  Comparing more that two factor levels«the analysis of variance ANOVA decomposition of total variability Statistical testing & analysis Checking assumptions. model validity Post-ANOVA testing of means  Sample size determination DOX 6E Montgomery .Basic Statistical Concepts 26  Simple comparative experiments The hypothesis testing framework The two-sample t-test Checking assumptions.

Portland Cement Formulation (page 23) 27 DOX 6E Montgomery .

Graphical View of the Data DOX 6E Montgomery .

pp. 2-3. 26 29 DOX 6E Montgomery . Fig.Box Plots.