27 2009

..

2008



.

;

(, , );

2500
,
;

, , ,
, , , ,
, ..

27 2009

AEM
AES Corporation
Atmos Energy
AWG/Anglian Water
BC Hydro and Power
BKW FMB Energie
BNFL
British Gas
British Energy
Cinergy
CMS Energy
Dominion Resources
Duke Energy
Dynegy
E.ON
EDP
Edison
Electricite de France
Emera

Endesa
Enel
EnBW
ESSENT
Equitable Resources
Fortum
HEW
Gaz de France
GPU
Hokuriku EP
Hydro One
Kelda
Manitoba Hydro
National Grid
Nothumbrian WG
OGE Energy
Ofgem
Ontario PG

Pacific Power
PG&E
Questar
RWE
Scottish Power
Severn Trent
Singapore Power
Southern Water
Tokyo EP
Toronto Hydro
TransAlta
TXU
United Utilities
Vattenfall
Veolia
Viridian
Western Power
Williams


1.
2. , ..
3. :
3.1.
3.2.
3.3.
3.4.
3.5.

4.

5.
6.

27 2009

1.
(1)
1. 2007 440 ,
16% .
2. 80- .
3. 10 .
4. 28 12 .

()
700

600

:
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

GW(e)

500

400

300

200

100

0
1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2030 .
27 2009

1.
(2)

;
;
;

;
;
;

16%
41%

19%

2%

5%
;

5%

(IPO)

3%

2%

;
IPO

2%

;
;

20 , 50 .
27 2009

1.
(3)
:

;
;


(
);
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.

.
.
27 2009

2.
-

;


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;

(16%
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12%
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,

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;



(Business
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. ,
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.
27 2009

2.

/
;
;


;

;


;

;
;

.

;
,

;

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.
27 2009

2.
-

;
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,
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).

,
.
27 2009

3.
:

( ):

27 2009

( )
;

;
;
;
;
().

10

3.1.

EPC, EPCM

;

.
27 2009

11

3.2.
( )
1. PRE-PROJECT

1-3 years

Power system planning

Legal and organizational framework
National infrastructure survey
National participation plan
Site survey & environmental assessment
Manpower survey and development program

2. PROJECT DECISION
MAKING
Pre-investment (feasibility) study

3-7 years

Site selection & evaluation

Bid specifications/Reception offers
Bid evaluation
Contract negotiation and closure
Initiation long lead procurement item

3. PLANT CONSTRUCTION

3-6 years

Preparation of site infrastructure

Detailed design engineering
Equipment and components manufacture
Construction, erection and installation
Commissioning and plant acceptance

4. PLANT OPERATION

30-60 years

Operation and maintenance

5. PLANT DECOMMISSIONING
Decontamination
Dismantling
Asset recovery
Waste processing, storage and disposal

27 2009

12

5-50 +
years
after plant closure

3.3.
():

( 10 )
:

;
;

;
- .

;
;
;
-
.

2007 , 2 3
.
27 2009

13

3.3.
(1)

27 2009

14

(
)

/





(WANO, ),



(INPO, ),
.

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(2)

. .

()

, PR-
,
,

.
27 2009

15

3.4. (1)
, :

50-60%

15-20%

40-50%

20-35%

5-10%

15-25%

15-20%

70-80%

35-40%

.
27 2009

16

3.4. (2)
:
1.

1.

,
, :

(
(EPC, EPCM-,
..)
);

(
);

(
/ ,
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, ).

(. ).

, .. .
27 2009

17

3.4. (3)
:

,
,
,
,
.

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()
( ).

.

.

27 2009

18

3.4. (4)
:

.
( ) ,
. /
,
.

( / )
.
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, .


, .

27 2009

19

4.
(1)
:

;

Areva () BNFL
();

,

(, );

IV ;

,

;

.
,
. .
27 2009

20

4.
(2)
1
,

9%



10%

57%

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5%

5%

2%

, 1%


( ,
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), 0%

3%

" 2007 - 2010

2015 "
1

.
27 2009

21

5.
1.

" ".

2.

,
.

3.

( ).

4.

,
,
, , .

5.

,

.

27 2009

22

6.
(1)

Cameco

General Electric Hitachi

British Energy

BNFL

AEA Technology

Amec plc

Rio Tinto

Cameco

Toshiba Westinghouse

EdF

Cogema

Andra

Areva

Areva - Mitsubishi Heavy

Industries

E.ON

JNFL

Ansaldo Nucleare

Bechtel Group Inc

Fortum

Minatom

Areva

AECL

RWE

AECL

British Nuclear
Group

Atomstroyexport

Endesa

EnergySolutions

Skoda

Vattenfall

Areva

Areva

KazAtomProm

Converdyn

TVEL

Rosatom

BHP Billington
Navoi

Belgoprocess

CH2M Hill
Fluor Corp.

Areva

Rosenergoatom

British Nuclear
Group

Urenco

Duke Energy

Covra

KBR

USEC

Exelon

Cogema

Mitsui Babcock
Energy

FPL
PSEG
Tokyo Electric
Kansai Electric
Eskom
CEZ
EnBW

Enresa
Posiva Oy
RWE Nukem AG

Jacobs Engineering

RWE Nukem AG
Serco Goup plc
Shaw Group
UKAEA
Washington Group

Electrabel
Hydro-Qubec

,
.
27 2009

23


(2)

,
, IPO M&A.

,
.

27 2009

,
: , ,
-,
.

24


(3)

()

()

243

1200

160

77

800

500

100

400

. ,

50
300

, ,

37

200

30

200

80

2500 , 562 .

27 2009

25


(4)

BHP Billiton

" "
BHP Billiton.
, ,
.
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)



( )

Energy Resources of Australia Ltd

Paladin Resources Ltd

Arafura Resources Limited

Arafura Resources
.

Rio Tinto Limited

Urenco

" " Urenco

.

-
Southern California Edison
-

27 2009

26

San
Onofre .


(5)

(UK
Department for Trade and Industry)

2006 " "

, ,
The Energy Challenge. , ,
, - .

" "

" "
, . "
" ,
, ,
.

British Energy ,

,
.

, " "
British Energy. " "
British Energy .

BNFL Urenco

" " BNFL, Urenco. BNFL

" " ABB
. , Magnox. " "
.

" "
Paks, -
.

Seabrook

" " Seabrook,

1 161 , .

Nine Mile Point Calvert Cliffs

" " Nine Mile Point Calvert Cliffs

1 690 , .

Clinton

" " Clinton,

930 , .

Slovensk Elektrrne

" " , ,
Slovensk Elektrrne.

27 2009

27


(6)
. .
2006
- " " NCLU 2007 Energy White
(NCLU) Paper. , ,
.
. ,
- .
.

(Nuclear Decommissioning Authority)

" " ,
,
.

" "
- .
" " " "
(UK Atomic Energy Authority)

( , )
. .

, ,

250 .

, .

-
.

()

27 2009

28

,
.
.


(7)

" " 3 8 Fortune

Global 500.
" " 13% S&P 1200.

" " 4 10 .

" " 2 3
S&P 1200.

" " 2 4 .

" " 17% ,

( 2007 ).

" " 33% 200

.

" " .
4 13 , Financial
Times.

" " .
39% .

" " 23 % S&P 1200.

27 2009

29

,
.: +7 (495) 755 9700
: +7 (495) 755-9701
E-mail: Oleg.Danilin@ru.ey.com

,
-
.: +7 (495) 755-9878
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27 2009

30

27 2009

31