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HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

SEEMA RAWAT-

REVIEW

What are the Barriers to HRP? What are the elements of effective HRP? What is Forecasting? What are the considerations and techniques of Demand and Supply forecasting?

ENVIRONMENT ORGANISATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND POLICES HR NEEDS FORECAST HR SUPPLY FORECAST

HR PROGRAMMING HR IMPLEMENTATION

CONTROL & EVALUATION

SURPLUS

SHORTAGE

HRP PROCESS

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Forecasting Demand
Considerations
Techniques

Product/Service Demand Economics Technology Financial Resources Absenteeism/turnover Organizational growth Management philosophy

Mathematical Trend Analysis Ratio Analysis Time Series of Ratios Linear/Multiple Regression Managerial Estimates Delphi technique

Example of Trend Analysis of HR Demand


Year Business Factor (Sales in Thousands) 2,351 2,613 2,935 3.306 3,613 3,748 3880 4,095 4,283 Labour Productivity = (Sales/employee) 14.33 11.12 08.34 10.02 11.12 11.12 12.52 12.52 12.52 12.52 HR Demand (No. Of Employees) 164 235 352 330 325 337 310 327 342 355

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002* 2003*

2004* * Projected4,446 figures

Time series analysis

Time series analysis deals with the analysis of a data recorded over equal intervals of time
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500

t i s o p d n a m e D

1000 500 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 Period 17 19 21 23 25

The basic steps in the time series analysis


1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Collection of data Plotting graph of the data Determination of trend by the methods described Deriving forecasts of monthly or quarterly trend values for the year(s) for which the forecast(s) is (are) required. Calculation of trend values by the method of moving averages, described in Annexure-II on Moving Averages. Obtaining seasonality indices for months or quarters of a year Deriving forecasts for monthly or quarterly values by multiplying trend values obtained in the step (iv) , with seasonality indices obtained in step (vi).

REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Studies the relationship among two or more variables. The relationship can be described and measured in a functional form. If the relationship between two variables, one dependent and the other independent or explanatory variable, is a linear function or a straight line, then the linear function is called simple regression equation, and the topic under study is referred to as simple regression analysis. Multiple Regression Analysis deals with more than two variables,

1.Time series analysis 2.Personnel ratios 3. Productivity ratios 4. Regression analysis


Past staffing levels (instead of workload indicators) are used to project future human resource requirements. Past staffing levels are examined to isolate seasonal and cyclical variations, long-term trends, and random movements. Long-term trends are then extrapolated or projected using a moving average, exponential smoothing, or regression technique. Past personnel data are examined to determine historical relationships among the number of employees in various jobs or job categories. Regression analysis or productivity ratios are then used to project either total or key group human resource requirements, and personnel ratios are used to allocate total requirements to various job categories or to estimate requirements for nonkey groups. Historical data are used to examine past levels of a productivity index, Workload P = Number of people . Where constant, or systematic, relationships are found, human resource requirements can be computed by dividing predicted workloads by P . Past levels of various workload indicators, such as sales, production levels, and value added, are examined for statistical relationships with staffing levels. Where sufficiently strong relationships are found, a regression (or multiple regression) model is derived. Forecasted levels of the related indicator(s) are entered into the resulting model and used to calculate the associated level of human resource requirements

Forecasting Supply
External considerations Techniques

Demographic changes Education of workforce Labour mobility Government policies Unemployment rate

Staffing Tables Markov analysis Skills inventory Management Inventory Replacement charts Succession planning

Existing human resources

Skill inventories info about non-managers. 1. Personal data 2. Skills 3. Special qualifications 4. Salary and job history 5. Company data 6. Capacity of individual 7. Special preference of individual

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Contd..

Management inventories
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Work history Strengths Weakness Promotion potential Career goals Personal data Number and types of employees supervised Total budget managed Previous management duties.
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Internal supply and techniques

Inflows and outflows IS= current supply outflow + inflow Turnover rate No of separations during one year 100 Avg no of employees during the year

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Contd

Conditions of work and absenteeism. Absenteeism is given by no of persons days lost Avg no of persons no of working days

100

Productivity level Movement among jobs

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