2 views

Uploaded by John Kulwa

- exam maths ans3 4 7
- DIT 111 Probability and queing theory.pdf
- Sample Chapter 4
- EE353 Notes No. 1 - Reliability Models and Methods
- UT Dallas Syllabus for se3341.501.08s taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)
- Ch3
- Ch 20 Slides
- 9A04303 Probability Theory & Stochastic Processes
- UT Dallas Syllabus for cs3341.001.09f taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)
- UT Dallas Syllabus for cs3341.001.10s taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)
- Symanzik I
- Lecture01 02 Intro Probability Theory
- UT Dallas Syllabus for se3341.001.07f taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)
- IE27_04_PMFPDF
- Ch4_probability (4.1 - 4.$)
- STAT LC NO 1
- UNIT II Probability D F Theory by Dr N v Nagendram
- Prob Review
- Lecture 15
- chapter 6.ppt

You are on page 1of 37

To be Covered

Random Experiments, Sample Space and Sample Point, Events, Mutually Exclusive Events, Independent Events. Probability definition and theorems, Random variable definition. Classification of random variables.

To be Covered

Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf). Probability Density Function (pdf). Statistical Averages. Common Probability Distribution functions. Gaussian random variables.

Probability

Probability implies random experiments. A random experiment can have many possible outcomes; each outcome known as a sample point (a.k.a. elementary event) has some probability assigned. This assignment may be based on measured data or guestmates (equally likely is a convenient and often made assumption). Sample Space S : a set of all possible outcomes (elementary events) of a random experiment.

Finite (e.g., if statement execution; two outcomes) Countable (e.g., number of times a while statement is executed; countable number of outcomes) Continuous (e.g., time to failure of a component or signal)

Probability

Definition A probabilistic experiment, or random experiment, or simply an experiment, is the process by which an observation is made.

In probability theory, any action or process that leads to an observation is referred to as an experiment. Examples include:

Tossing a pair of fair coins. Throwing a balanced die.

5

Probability

Definition The sample space associated with a probabilistic experiment is the set consisting of all possible outcomes of the experiment and is denoted by S.

The elements of the sample space are referred to as sample points. A discrete sample space is one that contains either a finite or a countable number of distinct sample points.

6

Probability

Definition An event in a discrete sample space S is a collection of sample points, i.e., any subset of S. In other words, an event is a set consisting of possible outcomes of the experiment. Definition A simple event is an event that cannot be decomposed. Each simple event corresponds to one and only one sample point. Any event that can be decomposed into more than one simple event is called a compound event.

7

Probability

Definition Let A be an event connected with a probabilistic experiment E and let S be the sample space of E. The event B of nonoccurrence of A is called the complementary event of A. This means that the subset B is the complement A of A in S. In an experiment, two or more events are said to be equally likely if, after taking into consideration all relevant evidences, none can be expected in reference to another.

8

Probability

Probability

Axiomatic Approach

Analyzing the concept of equally likely probability, we see that three conditions must hold. 1. The probability of occurrence of any event must be greater than or equal to 0. 2. The probability of the whole sample space must be 1. 3. If two events are mutually exclusive, the probability of their union is the sum of their respective probabilities. These three fundamental concepts form the basis of the definition of probability.

10

Probability

11

Probability

Let A, B and C be events in the sample space, S, then

12

Events are mutually exclusive if they cannot happen at the same time. For example, if we toss a coin, either heads or tails might turn up, but not heads and tails at the same time. Similarly, in a single throw of a die, we can only have one number shown at the top face. The numbers on the face are mutually exclusive events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events then the probability of A happening OR the probability of B happening is P(A) + P(B). P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1

What is the probability of a die showing a 2 or a 5?

Practice The probabilities of three teams A, B and C winning a badminton competition are

Calculate the probability that a) either A or B will win b) either A or B or C will win c) none of these teams will win d) neither A nor B will win

Solution/s

c) P(none will win) = 1 P(A or B or C will win) d) P(neither A nor B will win) = 1 P(either A or B will win)

Independent Events

Events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the outcome of another. For example, if you throw a die and a coin, the number on the die does not affect whether the result you get on the coin. If A and B are independent events, then the probability of A happening AND the probability of B happening is P(A) P(B). P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

Example 1

If a dice is thrown twice, find the probability of getting two 5s.

Two sets of cards with a letter on each card as follows are placed into separate bags.

Sara randomly picked one card from each bag. Find the probability that: a) She picked the letters J and R. b) Both letters are L. c) Both letters are vowels.

a) Probability that she picked J and R = b) Probability that both letters are L = c) Probability that both letters are vowels =

Example 3

Two fair dice, one colored white and one colored red, are thrown. Find the probability that: a) the score on the red die is 2 and white die is 5. b) the score on the white die is 1 and red die is even

a) Probability the red die shows 2 and white die 5 = b) Probability the white die shows 1 and red die shows an even number =

DEPENDENT EVENTS

Events are dependent if the outcome of one event affects the outcome of another. For example, if you draw two colored balls from a bag and the first ball is not replaced before you draw the second ball then the outcome of the second draw will be affected by the outcome of the first draw.

If A and B are dependent events, then the probability of A happening AND the probability of B happening, given A, is P(A) P(B after A). P(A and B) = P(A) P(B after A) P(B after A) can also be written as P(B | A) then P(A and B) = P(A) P(B | A)

Example 1

A purse contains four P50 bills, five P100 bills and three P20 bills. Two bills are selected without the first selection being replaced. Find P(P50, then P50)

Solution

There are four P50 bills. There are a total of twelve bills. P(P50) = 4/12 The result of the first draw affected the probability of the second draw. There are three P50 bills left. There are a total of eleven bills left. P(P50 after P50) = 3/11

P(P50, then P50) = P(P50) P(P50 after P50) = (4/12)x(3/11)=12/132 The probability of drawing a P50 bill and then a P50bill is

Dependent: Practice

A bag contains 6 red, 5 blue and 4 yellow marbles. Two marbles are drawn, but the first marble drawn is not replaced. a) Find P(red, then blue). b) Find P(blue, then blue)

Two fair dice, one colored white and one colored red, are thrown. Find the probability that: a) the score on the red die is 2 and white die is 5. b) the score on the white die is 1 and red die is even

The probabilities of three teams A, B and C winning a badminton competition are Calculate the probability that a) either A or B will win b) either A or B or C will win c) none of these teams will win d) neither A nor B will win

Summary

For mutually exclusive events Pr(A or B) = Pr(AB) = Pr(A)+Pr(B) For independent events Pr(A and B)=Pr(A B) = Pr(A)Pr(B) In general, Pr(A B) = Pr(A)+Pr(B)-Pr(A B) Pr(A B) = Pr(A)+Pr(B)-Pr(A B) Pr(A B)=Pr(B|A)Pr(A) =Pr(A|B)Pr(B)

Problem 1: Count the number of voice packets containing only silence produced from a group of N speakers in a 10-ms period.

Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { 0, 1, 2, , N } Problem 2: A block is transmitted repeatedly over a noisy channel until an error-free block arrives at the receiver. Count the number of transmission required. Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { 1, 2, 3, , }

Problem 3: Measure the time between two message arrivals at a message center.

where t denotes time.

Problem 4: Measure the lifetime of a given computer memory chip in a specified environment.

Solution: Denote sample space by S then, S = { t: t 0 } = [ 0, )

where t denotes time.

Problem 1: Write the values of events for problems in case study of sample space for following events:

1. 2. 3.

4.

No active packets are produced Fewer than 10 transmission are required Less than t0 seconds elapse between message arrivals The chip lasts for more than 1000 hours but fewer than 5000 hour

A={0}

2. Fewer than 10 transmission are required A = { 1, 2, , 9 } 3. Less than t0 seconds elapse between message arrivals A = { t : 0 t < t0 } = [ 0, t0 )

4. The chip lasts for more than 1000 hours but fewer than 5000 hour

- exam maths ans3 4 7Uploaded byOshani perera
- DIT 111 Probability and queing theory.pdfUploaded byChan_abm
- Sample Chapter 4Uploaded byKarla Hoffman
- EE353 Notes No. 1 - Reliability Models and MethodsUploaded byRogzJrBernz
- UT Dallas Syllabus for se3341.501.08s taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)Uploaded byUT Dallas Provost's Technology Group
- Ch3Uploaded byTayyab Zafar
- Ch 20 SlidesUploaded byPedro Carmona
- 9A04303 Probability Theory & Stochastic ProcessesUploaded bysivabharathamurthy
- UT Dallas Syllabus for cs3341.001.09f taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)Uploaded byUT Dallas Provost's Technology Group
- UT Dallas Syllabus for cs3341.001.10s taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)Uploaded byUT Dallas Provost's Technology Group
- Symanzik IUploaded byGuillermoSánchezSánchez
- Lecture01 02 Intro Probability TheoryUploaded bySara Afzal
- UT Dallas Syllabus for se3341.001.07f taught by Pankaj Choudhary (pkc022000)Uploaded byUT Dallas Provost's Technology Group
- IE27_04_PMFPDFUploaded byCristina de los Reyes
- Ch4_probability (4.1 - 4.$)Uploaded byAbdiqadir Jibril
- STAT LC NO 1Uploaded bysympatico81
- UNIT II Probability D F Theory by Dr N v NagendramUploaded byJulius Supe-rior
- Prob ReviewUploaded bySiddharth Singh
- Lecture 15Uploaded byVaibhav Shukla
- chapter 6.pptUploaded byFrancis Viray
- Multivariate Probability Theory - Determination of Probability Density FunctionsUploaded byHugo Hernández
- ProbabilityUploaded bymauddy
- Assignment 3Uploaded byZechen Ma
- [for Dummies] Earl Boysen, Nancy C. Muir - Electronics Projects for Dummies (2006, Wiley)Uploaded bySharukh Khan
- Qustionaire Stat 2ND QUARTERUploaded byDindin Oromedlav Lorica
- 5 DistributionsUploaded byrishabh
- 1.INTRODUCTION.pdfUploaded bysaleh
- 56FBBCFDd01Uploaded bySri Susilawati Islam
- Exam formula 2 list.pdfUploaded byahcang
- STA2023Ch06Uploaded byMohamed Med

- Final Lab ReportUploaded byNg Kin Ho Kaydeross
- Design of the WUFR-19 FSAE Suspension.pdfUploaded byKetan Jain
- 2 1 4 Calculating Force Vectors AnskeyUploaded byilkpol
- Kougias-FinalReportUploaded byDinh Cuong Tran
- Geotechnical Engineering BasicsUploaded bydaniel.j.mccarthy
- Sensoriomotor Integration in Human Postural ControlUploaded byjejo89
- Wireless Solar Keyboard k750Uploaded byairtonk
- lab_3111Uploaded bySinisaSikiPolovina
- Rainbow TranslateUploaded byamat salihin
- Ch 26 AA_Montano_Jiara_Cannizzaro ReactionUploaded byJiara Montaño
- Design Triz Assignment WTF3Uploaded byFirzan Harazi
- A496Uploaded bywpwmhat
- 11. Weather Proof Louvre MUploaded byntt_121987
- Path Integrals and HamiltoniansUploaded byAndré Ferreira
- Laws of Motion1Uploaded byAshok Pradhan
- Thermodynamics Approach in the Adsorption of Heavy MetalsUploaded byFaye Y. Santiago
- 21st Blade Mechanics Seminar 2016Uploaded byTarun Bhatia
- Operaciones Unitarias en Ingenieria Quimica Mccabe 6 Ed SolucionarioUploaded byRafael Lara Verduzco
- Testing of Optical Fiber Link Using OTDRUploaded byAdnan Hafeez
- Hydraulic Study of GRE Piping Using Pipenet SimulationUploaded bypsycopaul
- modelo viscoelasticoUploaded byMaria Cristina Rivero Olarte
- Lec4_7Uploaded byjuncos0729
- 9b7046d4587716fd278f28cf71da3c3a93b3Uploaded bynurul
- Application of Perturbation Theory to a Hard-chain Reference Fluid AnUploaded byAngelica Garcia
- BMW TurboSteamer m05!08!06Uploaded bymicver_00
- Leister Laser EngUploaded byHugoAlvarez
- Prediction of Micromechanical Behavior of Fiber (Glass/Basalt) Reinforced Polymer CompositesUploaded byIRJET Journal
- Stefan's Law Of RadiationUploaded byHema Anilkumar
- Design Subgrade in Support of AASHTO DesignUploaded byEnmanuel
- tpi123_de_en.pdfUploaded byColumbia Gomez