Abhimanyu Kumar Feroz Rehman Mrunmayi Oke Safique M Sandeep Raju T Sudharshan K

most likely the market share will get divided even more. DECISION Nirmal Rayons should not install additional capacity  RATIONALE    The current industry demand for 1972 is 6600 tonnes The demand is expected to grow to approximately 7120 tonnes by 1974 (assuming Planning commission figures where there is insufficient data) The individual production capacity is 4500 tonnes and with the fresh letters of intent . .

 The demand for the textile industry has been calculated to 2300 tonnes.   . In his estimation the consultant has taken into account the following factors :  Per capita consumption of cloth  Increased use of substitutes like PVC and hence decrease in share of cellophane  Growth in textile sector yet imposing the upper cap of the production capacity of the mill sector  Share of premium and non cotton textiles and ratios The estimates of the Planning Commission and the consultant are tallying for the year 1973-74 and basing similar assumptions. we can conclude that the consultants estimates are correct.

the demand in 1977 is projected to 1820 tonnes. The decrease in cellophane wrapping due increased excise duty being imposed has been neglected. Assuming a wrapping proportion of 45%. the basis for demand has been based on production figures and hence is unreliable No consideration of the loss in last 5 years in a leading cigarette factory causing a loss of 4 to 5 billion pieces which can continue in the market and spread to other factories The wrapping proportion has been considered to be increasing to 55%. Production is greater than installed capacity. Also.    .

60 tonnes have been lost from a chewing sum manufacturer in 1972.   . and the wrapping proportion for unorganized and organized sector and losing share to PVC . The figures for the unorganized sector have been computed using a growth rate of 6% whereas the estimated growth rate is 5%. This can also repeat for other companies. the cellulose film demand is calculated to 620 tonnes. Using Exhibit 4.

 The 10% growth for the industry is based on sales. The industry has been assumed to shift to the cheaper option of paper polyethylene packing but the consultant’s estimates are very conservative on this aspect. To assume this growth will equivalently translate to a growth in the volume of tablets is incorrect.  .

) TOTAL Add 10 % wastage TOTAL Production Required 2300 1820 620 655 98 466 115 335 240 56 1205 7910 791 8701 .CATEGORY OF USE USAGE (in tonnes) Textiles Cigarettes Confectionery Pharmaceuticals Fireworks Biscuits Chewing Tobacco Tea and Coffee Adhesive Tapes Tea Tapes Ribbon Over wraps (misc.


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