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This probability is written P(B|A). the conditional probability of event B given event A is simply the probability of event B. that is P(B).The conditional probability of an event B is the probability that the event will occur given the knowledge that an event A has already occurred. In the case where events A and B are independent (where event A has no effect on the probability of event B). . notation for the probability of B given A.

A and B. If there are two events. the conditional probability of A happens given that B happens is: P(A|B)= P(A ∩ B) / P(B) Or likewise. we can find the probability that B happens given that A happens: • P(B|A)= P(A ∩ B) / P(A) .

30/37=81% (conditional) .If someone gets the CHEAPtest result and it is “positive”. what is the chance that this person really has the disease.

Since one heart has already been chosen. there are now 12 hearts remaining in a deck of 51 cards. . Suppose first the player draws a heart. Now the player wishes to draw a second heart. So the conditional probability(Draw second heart \First card a heart) = 12/51.Example 1: In a card game. there are 13 cards in each suit. suppose a player needs to draw two cards of the same suit in order to win. Of the 52 cards.

The chance of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory housing is defined by P(Accepted and Dormitory Housing) = P(Dormitory Housing|Accepted)P(Accepted) = (0. .48.60)*(0.Example 2: Suppose an individual applying to a college determines that he has an 80% chance of being accepted.80) = 0. and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of the accepted students.

48% of all teenagers own a skateboard and 39% of all teenagers own a skateboard and roller blades.Example 3: In New York State. What is the probability that a teenager owns roller blades given that the teenager owns a skateboard? .

and of them 39 own roller blades as well.Out of a sample 100 teenagers. Thus for a given teenager having a skateboard. skateboard rollerblades 81% .812 = 81% (D). the probability of having roller blades = 39/48 = 13/16 = 0. 48 own skateboards.

P(A) This will allow us to calculate the probability that two events will both occur.Multiplicative Rules: Multiplying P(A|B)= P(A ∩ B) by P(B). . results to the multiplicative rule.

Let W2 be the event that second ball is also white.We select balls at random without replacement from a box containing 4 white balls. Compute the probability that all 3 are white balls. Let W3 be the event that the third ball is also white. Solution: Let W1 be the event that the first ball is white. .

P(W1) = 4 / 12 = 1 / 3 P(W2) = 3 / 11 P(W3) = 2 / 10 = 1 / 5 1 / 3 * 3 / 11 * 1 / 5 = 1 / 55 .Let W1 ∩ W2 ∩ W3 be the event that W1 occurs then W2 occurs after W1 has occurred and then W3 occurs after W1 and W2 occurred.

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find the probability that both resistor are defective. of which 5 are defective. .Suppose that we have a box containing 10 resistors. If the resistors are selected at random and removed from the box in succession and without replacement.

P(D1) = 5 / 10 = 1 / 2 P(D2) = 4 / 9 P(D1 ∩ D2) = 1 / 2 * 4 / 9 Answer : = 2 / 9 or 22% .

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