You are on page 1of 48

Lecture Presentation Software

to accompany

Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management
Seventh Edition by

Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown

Chapter 1 The Investment Setting
Questions to be answered: • Why do individuals invest ? • What is an investment ? • How do we measure the rate of return on an investment ? • How do investors measure risk related to alternative investments ?

Chapter 1 The Investment Setting
• What factors contribute to the rates of return that investors require on alternative investments ? • What macroeconomic and microeconomic factors contribute to changes in the required rate of return for individual investments and investments in general ?

Why Do Individuals Invest ?
By saving money (instead of spending it), individuals tradeoff present consumption for a larger future consumption.

$1. Market forces determine this rate.How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ? The pure rate of interest is the exchange rate between future consumption and present consumption.04 .00 + 4% = $1.

.How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ? People’s willingness to pay the difference for borrowing today and their desire to receive a surplus on their savings give rise to an interest rate referred to as the pure time value of money.

then the investor will demand an interest rate higher than the pure time value of money to also cover the expected inflation expense.How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ? If the future payment will be diminished in value because of inflation. .

.How Do We Measure The Rate Of Return On An Investment ? If the future payment from the investment is not certain. the investor will demand an interest rate that exceeds the pure time value of money plus the inflation rate to provide a risk premium to cover the investment risk.

Defining an Investment A current commitment of $ for a period of time in order to derive future payments that will compensate for: – the time the funds are committed – the expected rate of inflation – uncertainty of future flow of funds. .

1 Ending Value of Investment HPR = Beginning Value of Investment $220 = = 1.10 $200 .Measures of Historical Rates of Return Holding Period Return 1.

1 1.10 .10 = 10% 1.2 .1 = 0.Measures of Historical Rates of Return Holding Period Yield HPY = HPR .

1 .Measures of Historical Rates of Return Annual Holding Period Return –Annual HPR = HPR 1/n where n = number of years investment is held Annual Holding Period Yield –Annual HPY = Annual HPR .

Measures of Historical Rates of Return Arithmetic Mean where : AM = ∑ HPY/ n 1.4 ∑ HPY = the sum of annual holding period yields .

Measures of Historical Rates of Return Geometric Mean where : GM = [π HPR ] 1 n 1.5 −1 π = the product of the annual holding period returns as follows : ( HPR 1 ) × ( HPR 2 )  ( HPR n ) .

A Portfolio of Investments The mean historical rate of return for a portfolio of investments is measured as the weighted average of the HPYs for the individual investments in the portfolio. .

75 $ 20.000 $ 21 $ 4.000 -1 = = = 1.05 5% 0.900.900. $ 1.000 C 500.000.000 B 200.000 1.10 10% 0.000 $ 20.Computation of Holding Exhibit 1.200.05 $ 4.000 $ 33 $ 16.1 Period Yield for a Portfolio # Stock Shares A 100.095 HPR = HPY = 1.000.075 0.200.000 1.000 $ 12 $ 1. Value Price Mkt.010 0.000 1.000 $ 21.20 $ 15.000 Total Begin Price $ 10 $ 20 $ 30 Beginning Ending Ending Market Mkt.000.000.5% Wtd.010 0.000 $ 21.095 .095 9.000. HPY 0.20 20% 0.095 0. Value HPR HPY Wt.500.

Expected Rates of Return • Risk is uncertainty that an investment will earn its expected rate of return • Probability is the likelihood of an outcome .

.6 ∑ (Probabilit y of Return) × (Possible Return) i =1 n [(P1 )(R 1 ) + (P2 )(R 2 ) + .. + (Pn R n ) ∑ (P )(R ) i =1 i i n ..Expected Rates of Return Expected Return = E(R i ) 1.

Risk Aversion The assumption that most investors will choose the least risky alternative. all else being equal and that they will not accept additional risk unless they are compensated in the form of higher return .

Probability Distributions Risk-free Investment 1.20 0.2 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% .80 0.00 0.60 0.40 0.00 Exhibit 1.

3 Risky Investment with 3 Possible Returns 1.00 0.Probability Distributions Exhibit 1.20 0.60 0.40 0.00 -30% -10% 10% 30% .80 0.

80 0.40 0.00 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% .20 0.4 Risky investment with ten possible rates of return 1.00 0.Probability Distributions Exhibit 1.60 0.

7 (Pi )[R i − E(R i )] ∑ i =1 n 2 .Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return Variance (σ ) = ∑ (Probability) × (Possible Return .Expected Return) i =1 n 2 1.

Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return Standard Deviation is the square root of the variance 1.8 Pi [R i .E(R i )] ∑ i =1 n 2 .

9 Coefficient of variation (CV) a measure of relative variability that indicates risk per unit of return Standard Deviation of Returns Expected Rate of Returns σi = E(R) .Measuring the Risk of Expected Rates of Return 1.

Measuring the Risk of Historical Rates of Return 1.10 σ = ∑ [HPYi − E(HPY) 2 σ2 = HPY i = E(HPY) = n= n 2/n i =1 variance of the series holding period yield during period I expected value of the HPY that is equal to the arithmetic mean of the series the number of observations .

Determinants of Required Rates of Return • Time value of money • Expected rate of inflation • Risk involved .

– Assumes no uncertainty about future cash flows.The Real Risk Free Rate (RRFR) – Assumes no inflation. – Influenced by time preference for consumption of income and investment opportunities in the economy .

12  (1 + Nominal RFR)  −1  (1 + Rate of Inflation)    .Adjusting For Inflation Real RFR = 1.

Nominal Risk-Free Rate Dependent upon – Conditions in the Capital Markets – Expected Rate of Inflation .

11 (1+Real RFR) x (1+Expected Rate of Inflation) 1 .Adjusting For Inflation Nominal RFR = 1.

Facets of Fundamental Risk • Business risk • Financial risk • Liquidity risk • Exchange rate risk • Country risk .

Business Risk • Uncertainty of income flows caused by the nature of a firm’s business • Sales volatility and operating leverage determine the level of business risk. .

Financial Risk • Uncertainty caused by the use of debt financing. . • The use of debt increases uncertainty of stockholder income and causes an increase in the stock’s risk premium. • Borrowing requires fixed payments which must be paid ahead of payments to stockholders.

– How long will it take to convert an investment into cash? – How certain is the price that will be received? .Liquidity Risk • Uncertainty is introduced by the secondary market for an investment.

Exchange Rate Risk • Uncertainty of return is introduced by acquiring securities denominated in a currency different from that of the investor. . • Changes in exchange rates affect the investors return when converting an investment back into the “home” currency.

Country Risk • Political risk is the uncertainty of returns caused by the possibility of a major change in the political or economic environment in a country. • Individuals who invest in countries that have unstable political-economic systems must include a country risk-premium when determining their required rate of return .

Liquidity Risk. Financial Risk.Risk Premium f (Business Risk. Country Risk) or f (Systematic Market Risk) . Exchange Rate Risk.

Risk Premium and Portfolio Theory • The relevant risk measure for an individual asset is its co-movement with the market portfolio • Systematic risk relates the variance of the investment to the variance of the market • Beta measures this systematic risk of an asset .

liquidity risk.Fundamental Risk versus Systematic Risk • Fundamental risk comprises business risk. financial risk. and country risk • Systematic risk refers to the portion of an individual asset’s total variance attributable to the variability of the total market portfolio . exchange rate risk.

etc.Relationship Between Risk and Return Rate Return of (Expected) Low Average High Risk Risk Risk Exhibit 1..7 Security Market Line RFR The slope indicates the required return per unit of r Risk (business risk. or systematic risk-beta) .

etc..Changes in the Required Rate of Return Due to Movements Along the SML Expected Rate Exhibit 1. or systematic risk-beta) .8 Security Market Line RFR Movements along the cu that reflect changes in th risk of the asset Risk (business risk.

Changes in the Slope of the SML 1.13 RPi = E(Ri) .NRFR where: RPi = risk premium for asset i E(Ri) = the expected return for asset i NRFR = the nominal return on a risk-free asset .

14 The market risk premium for the market portfolio (contains all the risky assets in the market) can be computed: RPm = E(Rm).Market Portfolio Risk 1.NRFR where: RPm = risk premium on the market portfolio E(Rm) = expected return on the market portfolio NRFR = expected return on a risk-free asset .

Change in Market Risk Premium Exhibit 1.10 Expected Return E(R) New SML Original SML Rm' Rm´ Rm Rm NRFR RFR Risk .

11 Rate of Return Expected Return New SML Original SML RFR' NRFR´ NRFR RFR Risk . and the SML Exhibit 1. Expected Inflation.Capital Market Conditions.

The Internet Investments Online www.com www.ohio-state.investorguide.moneyadvisor.com www.com www.htm .com www.com www.worth.edu/dept/fin/osudata.barrons.forbes.financecenter.com www.com www.com www.finweb.com www.money.wsj.ft.fortune.com www.cob.com www.investorama.aaii.org www.com www.

Future Topics Chapter 2 • The asset allocation decision • The individual investor life cycle • Risk tolerance • Portfolio management .

709785702:2147902.88098390 2.90/709:7343902.3-0.709 .7095479144  #2 050.709!479144#8   %02..78 1700.709 5479144 .7095479144 ##050.9078.8809 .425:90/ #!2  #2 ##070 #!2 785702:243902..90/709:7343.439.38.

.303 .90/#09:73 % !&  %4 #2 #2 %4 ## %% "95.709#8!702:2 -9  50.3&  %:2 .

3/90$ -9  50.70943/9438  50.59.6%..95 !&  "95..90/31.90/#09:73 %..3&  %% ## ## %% %:2 .943 .

42  8 .%03907309 3.42  3.90 0/:. .847 .3.42  2430 .77438 .03907 .2.42  2430.08920398 330  13.08947:/0 ..42  147-08 .42  19 ./.42  .42  479 . 47  -.42  130- .0.42  1479:30 .42  .42  3.4- 44 89.08947.

/059.

13.

48:/.9. 92 .

8809.8 .943/0.843 W %03/.4.0 W !4791442.3..0894710 .0 W #89407.:9:70%45.02039 ..3./:.5907 W %0.3.