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Agenda

• To give a brief view of Hydrocarbon

Reserve Estimation Techniques

• To give a brief view about the reserves

and their classifications.

• To give a brief view of reserve status

categories

Introduction

Classification of Reserves

• In 1930s API made attempts to standardize

classification.

•

Since

than

evolution

of

technology

has

intensified

the

need

for

an

improved

nomenclature

to

achieve

consistency

among

professionals

working

with

reserve

terminology.

• SPE and WPC drafted a strikingly similar sets

of reserve definitions and these were

introduced in 1987.

•

In

1993

the Petroleum Society of CIM

published a monograph containing a report

on reserve definitions.

•

In

2000

SPE,

WPC

and

AAPG jointly

approved and published “Petroleum

Resources Classification and Definitions”.

•

The

Petroleum

Society published

“Definitions and Guidelines for Estimating

and Classifying

Oil

and Gas

Reserve” in

2002.

Reserves Definition According to

the Classification

• Total Petroleum–Initially–in–Place: It is the

quantity of petroleum which is estimated to exist

originally in naturally occurring accumulations, plus

those quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered

on a given date. It may be subdivided into

1. Discovered Petroleum-Initially-In-Place

2. Undiscovered Petroleum-Initially-In-Place

Discovered-Petroleum-Initially –

In-Place

It is that quantity of petroleum which is estimated to be contained in known

accumulation, plus those quantities already produced there.

Discovered Petroleum initially-in-place may be subdivided into commercial and

sub commercial categories, with the estimated potentially recoverable portion

being classified as:

Reserves (commercial)

III Proved plus probable plus possible

Contingent resources (Sub Commercial)

I. Low Estimate

II. Best estimate

III High Estimate

a) Reserves

placed on production within a reasonable timeframe.

I. Proved Reserves

recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.

II. Proved Plus Probable

III. Proved Plus Probable Plus

Possible

b) Contingent Resources

It can be categorize in three types :

Low Estimate

•

Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of

the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.

If probabilistic methods are used, this term reflects a P90

confidence level.

•

Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the

quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation. If

probabilistic methods are used, this term is a measure of central

tendency of the uncertainty distribution (most likely/mode,

P50/median, or arithmetic average/mean.)

•

High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of

the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.

If probabilistic methods are used, this term reflects a P10

confidence level.

c). Unrecoverable

petroleum that are in the reservoir after commercial

production has ceased, and in known and unknown

accumulations that are not deemed recoverable due

to lack of technical and economic recovery

processes.

oil and gas estimated on a given date to be contained in

accumulations yet to be discovered. The estimated

potentially recoverable portion of undiscovered resources is

classified as prospective resources.

a). Prospective resources

I. Low Estimate

II. Best estimate

III High Estimate

a). Prospective resources

economic to recover.

•

Low Estimate: This is considered to be a conservative estimate of

the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.

If probabilistic methods are used, this term reflects a P90

confidence level.

•

Best Estimate: This is considered to be the best estimate of the

quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation. If

probabilistic methods are used, this term is a measure of central

tendency of the uncertainty distribution (most likely/mode,

P50/median, or arithmetic average/mean.)

•

High Estimate: This is considered to be an optimistic estimate of

the quantity that will actually be recovered from the accumulation.

If probabilistic methods are used, this term reflects a P10

confidence level.

b). Unrecoverable

economic to produce. They represent quantities of

petroleum that are in the reservoir after commercial

production has ceased, and in known and unknown

accumulations that are not deemed recoverable due

to lack of technical and economic recovery

processes.

• Reserves

status

categories

define

the

development

and

producing status of wells and reservoirs.

1. Developed Reserves: Developed reserves are expected to

be recovered from existing wells including reserves behind

pipe. Improved recovery reserves are considered developed

only after the necessary equipment has been installed, or

when the costs to do so are relatively minor. Developed

reserves may be subcategorized as producing or

nonproducing.

estimate but that have not started producing,

connections or

(c) wells not capable of production for mechanical reasons.

2. Undeveloped reserves are expected to be recovered

(a)

from new wells on undrilled acreage,

(b)

from deepening existing wells to a different reservoir,

(c)

where a relatively large expenditures required to

(I)

recomplete an existing well or

(II)

install

production

or

transportation

facilities

primary or improved recovery projects.

Classification of Reserves

followed by ONGC

USSR. Therefore the classification of reserves followed in

USSR was adopted with modifications suiting to Indian

environment.

categories.

Periodicity of the Estimates

1.

Prior to drilling of exploratory well

2.

During and after appraisal and delineation

drilling

3.

After trial production data becomes available

4.

Prior to development strategy optimization

5.

During production

6.

When the production is declining

7.

At depletion

The Methods to follow

• Volumetric Estimates

• Performance Techniques

– Material balance approach

– Decline curve analysis

• Monte-Carlo Method

Volumetric Estimates

• Used early in the life of a reservoir, before

sufficient production and/or pressure data

to use the performance method,

• Results from their use might be subject to

considerable uncertainty,

• Depends on the geologic setting

and the

amount

and

quality

of

geologic

and

engineering data.

Estimation of OIL Reserves

=

Q 0

7758 x ɸ x S 0 x h x A

β 0

•

•

•

•

•

Q 0 = Quantity of Oil in Barrels

ɸ = Porosity of reserve in fraction

S 0 = Saturation fraction

h = Average effective thickness in feet

•

A = Area of pool Acres

β 0 = Formation volume factor for Oil

Estimation of GAS Reserves

=

Q g

43560 x ɸ x S g x h x A

β g

•

•

•

43560 = ft 3 / acre feet (1 acre = 43,560 sq. feet)

Q g = Quantity of gas in Standard Cubic Feet

ɸ = Porosity of the reservoir in fraction

•

•

•

The Methods to follow

• Volumetric Estimates

• Performance Techniques

–Material balance approach

– Decline curve analysis

• Monte-Carlo Method

Performance Techniques

• Material Balance Approach

– It

is

a

computational

procedure,

treating

the

reservoir as though it were a tank.

– These

methods

can

be

used

when

there

are

sufficient

historical

reservoir

pressure

and

production data to perform reliable calculations.

– The method is based on the premise that the Pore

Volume of a reservoir remains constant or changes

in predictable manner with reservoir pressure

drop.

• The data used for this approach consist of the

following :

– Production volume

– Reservoir Pressure & Temperature

– Fluid Analysis Data

– Log Data ,Core data

– Drive mechanism

types was first developed by Schilthuis in 1936.

Expansion of oil in the oil zone +

Expansion of gas in the gas zone +

Expansion of connate water in the oil and gas zones +

Contraction of pore volume in the oil and gas zones +

Water influx + Water injected + Gas injected

Rp = cumulative (producing) gas/oil ratio, scf/STB

Rsi = initial solution gas/oil ratio, scf/STB

Bw = formation volume factor, water, RB/STB

Wp = cumulative water production, ST

Ni = oil initially in place, STB or m

Bt = formation volume factor, total, RB/STB

The Methods to follow

• Volumetric Estimates

• Performance Techniques

– Material balance approach

–Decline curve analysis

• Monte-Carlo Method

Decline Curve Analysis

• Analysis of Production Decline Curve can

provide estimation of three important

items.

– Remaining Oil and gas reserves.

– Future expected production rate.

– Remaining productive life of well or reservoir.

What it is……

• A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the well’s

production rate on the y-axis versus time on the x-

axis.

•

The plot is usually done on a semilog paper; i.e. the

y-axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear.

• Three types of Decline Curves

– Exponential Curve

– Hyperbolic Curve

– Harmonic Curve

Exponential Curve

•

When the data plots as a straight line, it is modeled with a

constant percentage decline “exponential decline”.

•

The equation of the straight line on the semilog paper is given

by:

q= q i e -Dt

• Where,

– q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day

– qi = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day

– D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day

–

t = time, day

Hyperbolic Curve

• When the data plots concave upward, it is modeled with a

“hyperbolic decline”

• The equation of the hyperbolic decline is given by:

q = q i (1+bD i t) -1/b

Where,

•

q = well’s production rate at time t, STB/day

•

•

•

•

q i = well’s production rate at time 0, STB/day

D i = initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day

b = hyperbolic exponent

t = time, day

Harmonic Curve

q

=

q i

1+ bD i t

The Methods to follow

• Volumetric Estimates

• Performance Techniques

– Material balance approach

– Decline curve analysis

• Monte-Carlo Method

Monte Carlo Method

• A method of random sampling the Stochastic input

values to provide a picture of the output distribution

values and probabilities

•

The

model

takes

these

inputs

and calculates the

outputs

• These outputs are recorded

• The process is repeated x time until sufficient repeat

samples

are

collected

to

provide

a probability

breakdown for a range of output values

Hydrocarbon in Place = GRV x N/G x Porosity x S h

FVF

•

Gross Rock volume - amount of rock in the trap above the

hydrocarbon water contact

•

N/G - net/gross ratio - percentage of the GRV formed by the

reservoir rock ( range is 0 to 1)

• Porosity - (typically 5-35%)

• S h - hydrocarbon saturation

• FVF - formation volume factor - oil shrinks and gas expands

when brought to the surface. The FVF converts volumes at

reservoir conditions (high pressure and high temperature) to

storage and sale conditions

References

• Chapter 18, Estimation of Primary Reserves of

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Condensate. Ron

Harrell, SPE, Ryder Scott Co. and Chap

Cronquist, SPE, Consultant.

• Chapter

11,

Sec

11.4-11.7,

Bassiouni,

Z:

Theory, Measurement, and Interpretation

of Well Logs, SPE Textbook Series, Vol. 4,

(1994)

• Corelab, Fundamentals of Core Analysis,

Houston, TX (1983), Chapter 7

That’s all folks……!!!!!!!!

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