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Power Summit 2011

Bangladesh’s Power Sector: Investment Opportunities

Brig. Gen. (Rtd.) Muhammad Enamul Haq, MP State Minister, Power, Energy & Mineral Resources
March 01 , 2011

London
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Bangladesh at a Glance
 The Country : The People‟s Republic of Bangladesh

 Capital
 Area  Population  GDP Growth Rate

:
: : :

Dhaka
147,570 Sq. Km. 146 Million US $ 751 (FY 2010) Around 6 % (last 7 years)

 Per Capita Income :

Bangladesh’s Power Sector at a Glance (FY 2010)
 Electricity Growth  Generation Capacity  Total Consumers  Transmission Lines : 10 % in FY-2010 (Av. 7 % since 1990) : 5936 MW (January 31, 2011) : 12 Million : 8,500 km

 Distribution Lines
 Per Capita Generation  Access to Electricity

: 2,70,000 km
: 236 kWh (incl. Captive) : 48.5 %

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Present Structure of Power Sector
 Apex Institution
Power Division, Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources (MPEMR)

 Regulator
Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC)

 Generation
Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)  Ashuganj Power Station Company Ltd. (APSCL)  Electricity Generation Company of Bangladesh (EGCB)  North West Power Generation Company Ltd. (NWPGCL)  Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

 Transmission

Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Ltd (PGCB)

 Distribution
Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB)  Dhaka Power Distribution Company (DPDC)  Dhaka Electric Supply Company Ltd (DESCO)  West Zone Power Distribution Company (WZPDC)  Rural Electrification Board (REB) through Rural Co-operatives

Present Power Generation Scenario
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Total  5936 Considering 15-20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage. 3. Rental 3/5 YR. 2. 3. 2011) Public Sector SL. Available Generation Capacity is in the range of 4600 – 5000 MW without fuel constraint 6 . 5. 2.Present Generation Capacity (January. 1. 4. Generation Capacity (MW) BPDB APSCL EGCB Subtotal Private Sector IPPs SIPPs (BPDB) SIPPs (REB) 15 YR. Rental Subtotal 2620 606 255 3481 (59 %) 1271 99 226 168 691 2455 (41 %) 1.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Name of Power Station Unit Type Haripur Power Ltd. CC Reciprocating Engine CC Reciprocating Engine CT CT (4 Plant) Reciprocating Engine Reciprocating Rental -3/5 Years (10 Plant) TOTAL (33 operators) Engine 2. Oil Generation Capacity (MW) 235 450 110 175 106 70 325 168 691 Ltd.Power Generation Capacity in Private Sector Sl.455 7 . Meghnaghat Power NEPC RPCL KPCL BMPP WESTMONT (WPL) SIPP (13 Plant) Rental -15 Years CC Commissioning date (Year) 2001 2002 1999 2000 1998 1999 2007-2009 2008-2009 2008-2010 Type of Fuel Gas Gas Gas Gas F. No. Oil Gas Gas Gas F.

Demand Supply Situation  Generation: 4000 – 4600 MW (Capacity.5936 MW)  Highest so far: 4699 MW ( 20 August 2010)  Gas shortage causes 500 .700 MW less Power Generation  Peak Demand: 6000 MW (with DSM)  Load shedding up to 1500 MW during hot summer days  Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained economic growth 8 .

02% Energy Generation(FY10): 29.15% Furnace Oil 4.50% FO 3.53% Diesel 5.Energy Generation by Fuel Type in FY 2010 Hydro 2.451 Million Unit  Energy Growth in FY10 is about 10 %  High Dependence on Gas 9 . 10): 14.42% Coal 2.21% Natural Gas 84.247 Million Unit Energy Generation (July-Dec.23% Gas 89.19% Hydro 4.76% Coal 3.00% Diesel 1.

Priority area  Comprehensive and integrated plan for power generation. transmission and distribution sub – sectors  Fuel diversity and sustainable supply of fuels  Private sector participation in power generation  Harnessing renewable energy sources  Demand Side Management (DSM) and Energy Efficiency improvement program  Rationalize power tariff and “life line” tariff  Cross Boarder Power Trade .

Generation Expansion Plan and Implementation .

Base Load  Nuclear: Safe technology. For peaking duty 12 . Indigenous or Imported.No significant gas discovery in recent years . High price. No pollution.Present gas reserve is depleting due to increasing demand .Primary Fuel Supply Scenario  Gas: .Present gas exploration initiatives may change the scenario  LNG: Necessary to ensure secure and reliable gas supply  Coal: Near term option. Expected to be future Base Load option  Oil: Volatile market.

Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant  .Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel) .Rental Plants (liquid fuel)  Short term: 18 .5 years .Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)  Medium term: 3 .Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel) .Generation Expansion Plan  Immediate: 6 -12 Months .Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant  .LNG based Combined Cycle Plants  Long term: beyond 5 years .Nuclear Power Plant  .Renewable Energy 13 .24 Months .Coal fired steam plants ` .

u/c: 1343 MW. u/c: 1414 MW. Tender: 2506 MW).773   Public Sector : 6204 MW (comm:255 MW. Tender: 1420 MW). (58%) 14 . (42%) Private Sector : 8569 MW (comm:520 MW.Power Generation Projects up to 2016 Calendar Year Wise Projects Completion (From 2010 to 2016) YEAR 2010 (MW) Commissioned 2011 (MW) 2012 (MW) 2013 (MW) 2014 (MW) 2015 (MW) 2016 (MW) TOTAL (MW) Public Private 255 520 851 1343 838 1319 1040 1134 1270 1053 450 1900 1500 1300 6204 8569 Total 775 2194 2157 2174 2323 2350 2800 14.

Private Sector (Rental) 19 15 34 Public Sector Total • Out of 3317 MW. of Projects Capacity (MW) 1753 1564 3317 01. 410 MW (4 Project) already commissioned. No. 02. Description No. • 30 Projects with capacity 2907 MW are under construction.Successful Contract Signed since Jan 2009 Sl. 15 .

01. No.Projects Under Construction Sl. of Projects 15 Capacity (MW) 1343 02.907 Details u/c 16 . Public Sector Total 15 30 1564 2. Description Private Sector (Rental) No.

Projects Under Tendering Process: Contract within Next 6 Months Sl. 02. Description Private Sector (IPP’s) Public Sector Total No. No. 01. of Projects 26 5 31 Capacity (MW) 3106 1060 4166 17 .

00 2.68 Taka/kWh 3.37 Taka/kWh 1.00 4. Bulk Supply Cost (Tk/kWh) If Increased by 12 % (3 yr.00 0.00 FY 2011 (July-Dec) FY 2011 (Jan-June) FY 2012 (July-Dec) FY 2012 (Jan-June) FY 2013 (July-Dec) FY 2013 (Jan-June) FY 2014 (July-Dec) FY 2014 (Jan-June) FY 2015 (July-Dec) FY 2015 (Jan-June) Av.Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement 6.00 5.00 2.00 4.) 18 .

Investment Opportunity in Thermal Power Projects .

• DPP is under preparation. 2014 March. 2013 4 Barapukuria 250300 MW Coal (3rd Unit) Ashuganj 150 CCPP Shikalbaha 150-225 MW CCPP • Final Feasibility Report submitted. 2013 December. • Tender doc under preparation • In house feasibility completed. Description SECTOR Capacity (MW) 100 150 150 250 150 150 360 450 Fuel Expected COD Remarks PUBLIC 1 2 Chapai Nababganj 100 MW Peaking HFO Gas/ HFO Sep.Plan Projects Under Pre Tendering Process Sl No. • Preliminary Study going on • Preliminary Study going on • Finance: Kuwait Fund • EOI invited for consultancy services. 2013 June. 2015 Bheramara 360 MW CCPP Ashuganj 450 MW CCPP 8 Sub-Total 1760 . 2012  Procurement Process will start soon  Tender invited recently Mymensingh JV PDB & RPCL Bhola 150 MW CCPP June. • JICA will finance • Preliminary works • Finance: ADB 20 5 6 7 Gas Gas/ HFO Gas Gas December. 2013 December. 2012 3 Gas Coal June.

• Draft 2 Khulna South 1300 Coal June. 2015 Agreement for Joint Venture between NTPC & BPDB is under preparation. • Land acquisition (3188 Acres) near Parki beach is under process Sub-Total TOTAL 2700 4460 21 .Plan Projects Under Pre Tendering Process Sl Description Capacity (MW) Fuel Expected COD Remarks PRIVATE SECTOR 1 Savar 100 MW Peaking Plant. Bagerhat is under process 3 Chittagong 1300 Coal Dec. 2013 • PQ and RFP documents under preparation. • Lland acquisition (1834 Acres) at Chalna. Dhaka 100 HFO January. Feasibility study is going on. 2015 • Feasibility Study will start soon.

834= 2. and Kapasdanga 475+1. (4 Baserhula.Khulna 1300 MW Coal: JV with NTPC District: Upazila: Union: Mouza : Nos) Total Area (acre): Bagerhat Rampal Rajnagar and Gauramba Sapmari Katakhali.309 acres Distance from Important location Khulna City Mongla Port Proposed Khan Jahan Ali Air Port Sundarbans Proposed Deep Sea Port at Akram Point of Sundarbans 23 km 14 km 12. Kaigar Daskati.18 14 km 67 km .

3 km . Paschim Chal and Bandar Total Area (acre): 645+ 2543 = 3.Chittagong 1300 MW Coal Project on BOO Basis Project Status  Land acquisition and doc preparation  Procurement process will start soon Location: District: Upazila: Union: Mouza: Chittagong Anwara Barasat. Phultoli. Chalitatali.53 4. Rangadia.188 acre Distance from Important location Chittagong Port Shah Amanat Int. Uttar Paruapara. Boalia. (12 Nos) Paschim Tulatali. Barasat. Gobadia. Air Port 11. Dudhkumra. Majerchar.

Project Boundary and Area: Chittagong .

Project Location beside CUFL Chittagong Urea Fertilizer Ltd .

Long Term Generation Plan .

000 MW .000 MW .Generation capacity requirement by 2021: 24.2010 (up to 2030)  Updates of PSMP 2006: Due to change of planning perspective  PSMP 2010 : Long term planning up to 2030  Findings: .Coal based generation capacity by 2030: 20.Power System Master Plan.Coal and Nuclear for base load power requirement .Import of Hydro Power from neighboring countries 27 .Generation capacity requirement by 2030: 39.000 MW .

Probable Power Generation: Primary Fuel Sources by 2030 Sl.700 Probable Location (s) North West Region at Mine Mouth Chittagong and Khulna Near Load Centers Ruppur Bahrampur . Description Domestic Coal Imported Coal Domestic Gas/LNG Nuclear Regional Grid Others (Oil.250 8. No.500 2. Agartola Comilla. Hydro and Renewable) Total Capacity (MW) 11.Chittagong Near Load Centers 1 2 3 4 5 6 38. Purnia-Bogra.400 8.850 4. Myanmar .700 .Bheramara. Silchar .000 3.Fenchuganj.

Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030) Domestic Coal K-D-P 18x600MW USC Import Coal Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future) Zajira/New Meg 4x600MW Chittagong 4x660MW Matarbari 4x600MW Sonadia 2x600MW Railway Coal Center Total 18.000MW Chittagong Matarbari Sonadia Island : Potential Coal PS : Potential Coal Center : Ocean-going vessel : Transship .

CC Meghnaghat Large #3.Generation Plan: From 2016 to 2020 Sl 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Description Dhaka North. 750 MW. 750 MW. 1000 MW Capacity (MW) Executing Agency RPCL BPDB BPDB BPDB BPDB BPDB BPDB BAEC Fuel Gas Gas Gas Coal-I Coal-I Gas Hydro Nuclear Expected COD 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 750 750 750 600 600 750 500 1000 9 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #1 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #3 600 600 600 1000 BPDB BPDB BPDB BAEC Coal-D Coal-D Coal-D Nuclear 2019 2019 2020 2020 30 10 B-K-D-P 1 600MW #2 11 12 Rooppur Nuclear # 2.750 MW. CC Meghnaghat Large #4. CC Power import from Myanmar Rooppur Nuclear # 1. CC Chittagong South 600MW #1ST Megnagatt 600MW #1 Keraniganj #1. 1000 MW Total: 8. 500 . 750 MW.

Renewable Energy Projects 31 .

Cox’s Bazar Hatia. Location of the Project Parki Beach. Rajshahi St. Rangamati Sarishabari. NO. Sandwip. and Monpura Islands Kaptai. Martin Island 1 MW 2-4 MW 1.Renewable Energy Projects Sl.5 MW Grid Connected Solar PV Grid Connected Solar PV Wind and Solar Hybrid 32 . Rajshahi Rajabarihat Goat Development Farm. Chittagong Moghnamoghat. Jamalpur Capacity 100-200 MW 10 MW 4 MW 5 MW 2-4 MW Type of Project Wind Power Wind Power Wind Power Grid Connected Solar PV Grid Connected Solar PV 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 RTC.

Jamalpur: Solar Parki Beach. Chittagong: Wind Kaptai. Rangamati: Solar Cox’s Bazar: Wind St.Renewable Energy Projects Rajshahi: Solar Sarishabari. Martin’s Island: Hybrid 33 33 .

Policy. Incentives and Security Mechanism for Private Investment .

Energy Charge : fuel cost is pass through item in the tariff  Sovereign guarantee from the Government for obligations of Government entities through Implementation Agreement (IA)  Assistance in getting clearances from various agencies  Attractive incentive packages .Capacity Charge : ensures reasonable return on investment .Private Sector Power Generation Policy  Tariff based bidding .

 Repatriation of equity along with dividends.  Plant and equipment (full value) and spare parts (10% of original plant cost) without payment of customs duties. VAT and any other surcharges.Major Incentives for IPPs Private Sector Power Generation Policy  Exemption from corporate income tax for a period of 15 years. Cont… .

Taka is freely convertible for FDI .Major Incentives for IPPs Private Sector Power Generation Policy  Tax exemption and repatriation facilities on royalties. technical know – how and technical assistance fees  Avoidance of double taxation on the basis of bilateral agreements  The Bangladeshi currency.

Project companies are making profit  IPPs and BPDB have met their obligations under the PPA without problems or controversy and no conflict or major problems/issues have arisen  Increased interest reflected in the recent biddings by private sector developers  Many IPPs are presently operating their businesses with local managers.Investment Environment  Project Agreements are of international standard with properly allocated risks. engineers and technical staff to the benefit of all concerned .

10 bn US $ remittance and 11 bn US $ foreign exchange reserve indicates capability of IPP payment  Sovereign Credit Rating BB .Investment Environment  Increasing demand for electricity ensures business opportunities  Existing policy and concessions will be continued  Tested and successful approach to IPP development and management will be continued.  Transparency and “level playing field” in the selection of Bidders  20 bn US $ export.(Moody’s) and Ba3 indicates better investment environment (S&P) .

and payment by the Purchaser is guaranteed by GOB  Two component tariff .Payment Guarantee  Implementation Agreement (IA) and PPA ensure fair and reasonable risk allocation.„Capacity Price‟ and „Energy Price‟ ensures sufficient cash flow to recover investment and return  Payments under the PPA continue in the event of fuel supply disruption or dispatch failure  Payment under the PPA is ensured by Letter of Credit  Payment to „ Escrow Account‟ ensures lenders re .payment .

Conclusion  Government is committed to realize its „Vision‟ for the power sector and the economic development of Bangladesh  Government is committed to ensure transparency and an “level playing field” in every aspect of the procurement process  Government is committed to promote and encourage Private Sector Participation in power sector development .

bpdb.gov.We look forward to your participation in the power sector development of Bangladesh Thank you Visit website: www.bd for 42 further information on power generation projects .

Thank You .

30% of the country affected Tropical catastrophic cyclone Natural Disasters External Shocks Linear Trend line (Real GDP Growth) 44 Source: Bangladesh Bank .3 5.3 4. Severe Floods: 36% of the country flooded 36 mn people affected.000 livestock lost.6 4.4 5.000 cattle.0 3.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tropical Cyclone 04B: Casualty: 650 people 17.4 6.0 6.0 4. 8755 homes destroyed Slowdown after 9/11 MFA Phase Out Oil Price reaches >US$100/b Economic Crisis 7.3 6.4 5.000 km roads damaged.GROWTH IS REMARKABLY STABLE AGAINST ALL SHOCKS Resilient growth despite regular political.0 Real GDP Growth (%) 6. numerous political upheavals and countless natural disasters.9 6.000 cattle Very severe tropical Cyclone BOB 01 Asian Economic Crisis Very severe cyclonic storm BOB 06: 300. 1000 deaths 26.0 4.9 4. Cyclone Sidr: 3500 people killed Major floods: 500 died.2 5. Most severe flooding in modern history : 66% of the land affected.9 4. environmental and external setbacks Bangladesh has maintained consistent growth and never defaulted on its internal or external debt obligations despite the Asian and Global Financial Crises. 16.2 5.3 3.0 5. This consistency is practically unrivaled amongst countries of a similar level of development Cyclone 2B: Casualty: 400 people 8.6 6.6 4.0 5.000 affected.1 2.7 5.0 6.

Production  Domestic coal development  Coal Import (long term contract) and deep sea port for coal handling  LNG import Project Financing  Ensuring financing for Public and Private sector projects is a major challenge  Availability of foreign currency Transportation of fuel and equipment  Infrastructure development by Railway  Dredging of river routes by BIWTA  Capacity build up of BPC.Challenges Primary Fuel Supply  Enhanced Gas Exploration. Railway. R&H and BIWTA .

Project Company shall obtain all necessary debt and equity financing. engineering and construction in accordance with sound engineering and construction practices and Prudent Utility Practices. Cooperate with all appropriate Procurement and Construction (EPC) third parties to facilitate all contract with the Contractor. Commissioning and Start-up.Project Company's Obligation and GOB/BPDB's role Sl Projects Company's Obligation GOB/BPDB's role Site will be provided through Land Lease Agreement. Negotiate and execute the Engineering. . 3. 2. infrastructure and utilities necessary for construction and operation of the Plant. Design. Assist Project Company to obtain electrical energy for construction. 1.

Provide the necessary facilities and services for the safety. 4.Project Company's Obligation and GOB/BPDB's role Sl Project Company's Obligation GOB/BPDB's role Assist Project Company in connection with negotiation and execution of the Fuel Supply Agreement. 5. comfort and protection of its personnel. in accordance with Prudent Utility Practices and Dispatch instructions. permits and licenses. Operate and maintain the Plant. Assist the Project Company in obtaining Government authorizations. .

Demand with DSM (In April) Gen addition Public Sector Gen. addition Private Sector Regional Power Imp 2010 6454 255 520 2011 6765 851 1343 88 2012 7518 838 1319 83 2013 8349 1040 1134 500 161 2014 9268 1270 1053 1292 2015 10283 450 1900 128 15882 15247 12197 1914 19% 48 Capacity Retired Gen. Capacity (End of Dec) NET Dependable Capacity (End of Dec) Max Surplus/Shortfall (In Summer) 5936 5699 4331 -2123 -33% 8042 10116 12629 13660 7720 5945 -820 -12% 9711 12124 13114 7575 57 1% 9578 1229 15% 10491 1223 13% . 2011 Year Max.Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year) January.

Demand with DSM (In April) Dependable Capacity (End of Dec) 49 .Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year) January. 2011 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Max.

Mega Coal Projects in Khulna and Chittagong .

COAL Hydro OIL SHORTAGE Energy Generation: 99. 2010 (so far Maximum 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 Peak) 4699 MW (9:00 PM) 4692 MW (4:00 AM) 3911 MW (12:00 Noon) Hydro COAL SHORTAGE OIL P.Load Curve on August 20.GEN(OIL).Curve!$V$33 GEN.13 M kWh 51 .GEN(OIL).13 M kWh Energy Not Served: 3. MW 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0:0 0 2:0 0 4:0 0 6:0 0 8:0 0 00 10: PRIVATE GEN. (GAS) P.(GAS) GAS 00 12: Hour 00 14: 00 16: 00 18: 00 20: 00 22: 00 24: GAS PR+En.

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