RISK MANAGEMENT IN PROCESS INDUSTRIES RISK IDENTIFICATION, MITIGATION & HANDLING

Abhijit Das LOSS PREVENTION ASSOCIATION OF INDIA LTD.

MAJOR FIRE LOSSES
Year Type of Industry Engineering Industry Textile Industry Chemical Industry Petro Chemical Industry Others 94-9 12.37 (6) 35.25 (5) 9.15 (4) 21.9 (5) 1.0 (1) 9-94 2.35 (2) 15.33 (4) 2.75 (2) 10.65 (5) 94-95 2.9 (1) 22.18 (5) 30.91 (10) 2.8 (1) 95-96 65.3 (15) 91.38 (23) 99.8 (11) 17.6 (4) 83.75 (20)

(Rupees in Crores)

96-97 52.01 (10) 12.53 (5) 15.70 (6) 12.55 (9)

97-98 54.28 (13) 81.55 (13) 283.87 (15) 4.09 (2) 63.39 (11)

Total 79.67 31.26 83.87 357.23 92.79 488.18 Source : Annual Reports of GIC Figures in Bracket indicate no of fire losses amounting more than Rs. 1.0

Place

Year

Feyzin, France Flixborough, U.K. Mexico City, Mexico Bhopal, India Pasadena, USA Vizag, India

1966 1974 1984 1984 1989 1997

Approx. Loss of Life 18 51 500 2000 23 58

Cause

LPG: BLEVE UVCE of Cyclohexane LPG: BLEVE Release of MIC UVCE of Isobutane UVCE of LPG

FEYZIN, 04.01.1966, FRANCE

FEYZIN DISASTER
4TH JAN. 1966 FRANCE 18 KILLED, 81 INJURED LEAK IN 1200 M3 PROPANE SPHERE BLEVE FURTHER SPHERE TOPPLED ADJACENT PETROL TANK CAUGHT FIRE 48 HRS TO GAIN CONTROL SAMPLING REMOVABLE SPANNER (I) (II) OPEN FULLY UPPER VALVE ADJAST SMALL DRANOFF RATE

FILXBOROUGH, 01.06.1974, UK

FILXBOROUGH
1st June 1974 Cyclohexane TNT equivalent32 tonnes Lethal Radius Causality Loss Process Six reactors gravity circulation. Cyclohexane ¡ Cyclohexanone and cyclohexanol. Oxidized (AIR) Operating Condition 8.8 Kg/Cm2 Pr. 155oC Temp. Exothermic reaction. Nitrogen Controlled atmosphere - HighPr.N2 Storage Reactor pr. Maintained by off-gas venting SRV - Setting 11.0 Kg/Cm2 125 meters 28 $ 412 million (Rs.. 1854 Cr.)

Trip - Air shut off at high O2 content/Nitrogen Injection

MEXICO CITY, 19.11.1984, MEXICO

MEXICO DISASTER

19TH NOV 1984 leak in LPG Storage facility BLEVE OCCURED 500 Deaths Loss US$ 100 Millions

BHOPAL GAS TRAGEDY (2 & 3 Dec. 1984)
 40 T METHYL ISOCYANATE (MIC) LEAKED  WORST INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENT  8000 PEOPLE DIED IMMEDIATELY AND OVER 500,000 PEOPLE SUFFERED FROM INJURIES  MANY DIED DUE TO DELAYED MEDICAL TREATMENT (UNION CARBIDE WITHHELD TOXOLOGICAL INFORMATION)

PASADENA, 23.10.1989, USA

“PHILLIPS” Pasadena Texas USA
 23rd  23

Oct. 1989 Cloud explosion

Deaths 130 Injuries US$ 500 Millions

 Vapour  Loss

FIRE & EXPLOSION IN HPCL REFINERY VIZAG
  

7th Sept.1997 Capacity - 6.5 million tons per annum Facility for handling LPG

Vapour clould Explosion involving LPG LOSS Rs. 256Cr. Life Loss 58

RISK MANAGEMENT
“Risk

Management is the Identification, Analysis and Economic Control of those RISKS which can Threaten the Assets (Property, Human) or the Earning Capacity of an Enterprise”

HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT
•1955- 1964: Birth of Modern Risk Management

•Post 1960: Shift from Traditional Insurance Products •“Reliability” Movement in 1950s •“System Safety” Movement in 1960 & 1970s •Development of QRA: filtered to the “Financial” side of Risk Management

HAZARD
ANYTHING WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING AN ACCIDENT.

RISK
PROBABILITY OF HAZARD RESULTING AN ACCIDENT.

Strategic Management

Operations Management

Risk Management

RISK IDENTIFICATION

RISK ANALYSIS NO TRANSACTIONAL DECISION YES

No Risk Management

Risk Control

Transfer

Reduce

Retain

For any Industrial Process Plant Following questions must be asked and answered

4. What are the Hazards ? 5. What can go wrong and how? 6. What are the chances? 7. What are the consequences?

CONESQUENCES OF HAZARDOUS EVENT •FIRE/ EXPLOSION •VAPOUR CLOUD EXPLOSION •FORMATION OF TOXIC ATMOSPHERE

Different Terminologies of Hazardous Situations
•Pool Fire •Jet Fire •Flash/ Cloud Fire •Vapour Cloud Explosion (VCE) •High Pressure Rupture •BLEVE •Release of Toxic Gases/ Liquids

Heat Radiation levels and Damage Effects (As per API 521)
Radiation Level (kW/Sq.m) 4.0 12.5 Observed Effect

Sufficient to cause pain to personnel within 20 second Minimum Energy required for piloted ignition of Wood and melting of Plastic Tubing Sufficient to cause damage to Process Equipment

37.5

Explosion Over Pressure Level and Damage Effects
Overpressure (bar) 0.02 Damage produced by Blast Effect No considerable damage except shattering of few glass panes Partial collapse of Buildings Steel framed building distorted and pulled away from the foundation

0.13 0.20

TOXIC GAS RELEASE
• LC

(Lethal Concentration)

•IDLH (Immediate Danger to Life & Health) •ERPG (Emergency Response Planning Guideline)

THE FIRST STAGE OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN A PROCESS
PLANT ESSENTIALLY CONSISTS OF THREE STEPS: 2. IDENTIFYING THE HAZARD 3. ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OR CONSEQUENCES OF THE HAZARD 4. DETERMINING PROBABILITY OR LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE OF HAZARDOUS EVENT

THE NEXT STEP OF RISK ASSESSMENT
TO DETERMINE WHETHER EFFECTS OF THE CONSEQUENCE AND THE PROBABAILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF THE HAZARD IS WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE LIMIT OR NOT.

HAZARD IDENTIFICATION METHODOLOGY

HAZARDS IN PROCESS PLANTS ARE PRIMARILY IDENTIFIED BASED ON FOLLOWING INFORMATION •HAZARDOUS PROPERTIES OF MATERIALS •TYPE OF UNIT PROCESS/ OPERATION •OPERATING PARAMETERS •ANY OTHER RELEVENT DATA NFPA CODE NO. 325 M CHECK-LIST

COMMONLY USED STRUCTURED HAZARD IDENTIFICATION TECHNIQUES
• WHAT IF ? ANALYSIS:
• • • • • • What if the Raw Material contains impurities? What if Cooling Water is Lost? What if the Vessel Agitation Stops? What if Power Supply Fails? What if the Temp./ Press. Sensor Fail? What if the Pump Stops? etc.

1. HAZOP STUDY
GUIDE WORDS • NO • MORE • LESS • AS WELL AS • PART OF • REVERSE • OTHER THAN, etc.

3. FAILURE MODE AND EFFECTS ANALYSIS (FMEA)
FMEA evaluates the ways in which an Equipment can Fail and the Effects of such Failures on an Installation

4. FAULT TREE ANALYSIS (FTA)
Deductive Reasoning Process

5. EVENT TREE ANALYSIS (ETA)
Inductive Process

RISK ACCEPTABILITY CRITERIA
Statistical Experience Shows
•Chance of Death due to Risk of Driving, Flying or Smoking is 1 in 100000 or 10 –5 •Chance of Death from Lightning or Falling of Aircraft is around 10 –7 or 1 in 10000000 It is therefore generally accepted that the Risk of Death 1 in 100000 or 10 –5 per Year is Alarming. Action needs to be taken to Reduce the Risk BELOW the level 1 in 1000000 or 10 –6 per Year and it is generally accepted without concern for Industrial People.

PROBABILITY ESTIMATION Failure Rate data for Some Equipment
Equipment Failure Rate (Failures/ Year) Process Pressure Vessel 2.7x 10 -3 Pressure Storage Vessel 1.8x 10 -3 Heat Exchangers Fired Heaters High Temperature vessel, except Fired Heater Low Temperature Vessel 1.7x 10 -3 405x 10 –3 7.4x 10 -3 1.5x 10 -3

CONSEQUENCE ESTIMATION
Software Package
EFFECTS CISCOM CHARM
POOL FIRE/ BLEVE/ EXPLOSION Package

Organisation
TNO, Netherlands CISRA, CLRI, CHENNAI Radian Corporation

IIT, Kanpur
Energy Analyst Corporation ERT Inc Lawrence Livermore National Lab Safer Corporation DNV Technica Swiss Re

EAHAP HASTE SLAB TRACE PHAST Ex- TOOL

Public or Societal Risk
E x p e ct e d F re q u e n c y
103

FN Curve for Societal Risk
Unacceptable

F
105

Reduction Desired Acceptable

F.N. Lines

Nos. of Probable Fatalities N

102

103

RISK CONTROL MEASURES •Physical Protection •Procedural Protection •Educational Protection

Physical Protection
•Strict & Rigorous approach in following the Relevant Standards , Codes & Practices •Built in Safety Devices and Safety System •Venting through Tall stacks •Field Monitors for Different Toxic Gases •Burning Waste gases in a Flare System •Provision of Wind Cones •Fire Proofing of Steel Structures •PPE •Passive Protection System •Active Protection system •Automatic Protection system

1 0 2

•Improved Waste Water Management

PROCEDURAL PROTECTION
•Fire Emergency Procedure •Disaster Preparedness Plan •Mutual Aid Scheme •No Smoking Policy •Investigation of All Accidents •Hazard Identification through Safety Committee, House Keeping Committee, Safety audit Committee •Conducting Plant Survey, safety survey •Work Permit System •Statutory Requirement •Safety Promotional Activities

Contd. •Information notes on Unsafe conditions •MSDS •Annual Medical Check up of Employees •Safe Start up & Shut Down Procedure •Regular and Preventive Maintenance •Periodic testing of Fire Fighting Appliances

EDUCATIONAL PROTECTION
•Periodic Training Programme on Safety, Fire Safety and Hazardous properties of materials •Mock Fire Drill •Safety Manuals •Health & Safety News Bulletins •Safety Motivation schemes •Plant Operating Manual •Educating the Public Living nearby about the activities in the industry

GROWING IMPORTANCE OF RISK MANAGEMENT DUE TO
•LEGISLATION •CUSTOMER ATTITUDE •SOCIETAL EXPECTATIONS •MANAGEMENT ATTITUDES

RETENTION OF RISK IS BUSINESS & RETENTION OF CUSTOMER IS PROGRESS

THANK YOU

PETER F. DUKER
“To

try to eliminate Risk in Business Enterprises is Futile”. “Risk is inherent to the commitment of present resources to future expectations”. Indeed, economic progress can be defined as the ability to take greater RISKS. Even the attempt to minimise them, can only make them irrational and unbearable.

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