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Global Warming/Climate Change and increasing trends of Natural Disasters in India

Prof. Vinod K. Sharma


Professor, Disaster Management and Environment

Indian Institute of Public Administration New Delhi

Climate Change is reality


Orissa Super Cyclone 1999 Mumbai Floods 2005 Surat Floods 2006 Rajasthan Floods 2007 Cloud Bursts 2010 Floods in Asia 2010 Monthly Temperature in 2010

Growing Emission of CO2 and Green House Gases

Greenhouse Gases
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 50% Methane (CH4) 18% Nitrous oxide (N2O) 6% Hydroflurocarbons (HFCs) Perflurocarbons (PFCs) 26% Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

74%

WHO IS RESPONSIBLE
Developed Countries and their life style

Developing Countries and their basic needs

Per Country GHG in 2000

Per Capita GHG in 2000

Growth of CO2 Emission

The components of the global climate system - A schematic view (Source: IPCC 2001)

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time


11 out of 12 recent years were warmest in the century: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Period

Rate

50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018

Years /decade

Climate Change Syndrome


Shorter winter Longer summer Warmer nights Variation in season length Variability in rainfall

Weather, water and climate-related hazards Hot & cold spells

Droughts

River basin flooding Tropical cyclones Storm surges Ice Storms Dust storms Hail&Lightning Flash floods Tornadoes Heavy precipitations (rain or snow)

Storm (winds)

Wildland fires & haze

Mud & landslides

Avalanches

How Serious is Climate Change?

How India is affected by Climate Change


Himalayan Zone and North East Coastal Area Central India East, West, North and South

Some Impacts

WHO Mortality rate attributable to Climate Change India in the range of 4-70 mortality for every million people.

Foodgrains Production (Million Tonnes)

Average retreat of 34 Mtrs in the last 5 years Decadal average: 17 mtrs

Trends indicate that India could end up losing 30% of its agriculture production due to climate change (change in rainfall patterns)`

220
Production in Million Tonnes

210 200 190 180 170 160 150

199.4 191.5 179.5 184.3 180.4

Every cm rise in sea level leads to 1 209.8 Mtr loss212.9 land. 208.3 of 212.1 203.6
196.8 198.4

192.3

Sunderbans and Orissa have had 174.2 substantial land losscv`

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Major Natural Disasters :


1990 - 2010
Earthquakes Uttarkashi Latur (Killari) Jabalpur Chamoli Kutchchh, Gujarat J&K 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2005 1992& 1996 1998 1999
Earthquake, J&K Oct.8, 2005

Earthquake, Gujarat January 26, 2001

Cyclones East & West Godavari dist.of Andhra Pradesh Kutchchh, Gujarat Orissa
Floods Punjab Kerala Punjab & Haryana Mumbai Tsunami Andaman & Nicobar Islands & coastal areas

Tsunami Dec.26, 2004

1993 1994 1996 2005

2004

Floods
Floods in the Indo-GangeticBrahmaputra plains are an annual feature On an average, a few hundred lives are lost

Millions are rendered homeless


Lakhs of hectares of crops are damaged every year

Wind and Cyclones


During the Period 1877-2005 in a 50 km wide strip following cyclonic activity have taken place: 283 cyclones (106 severe) on the East Coast 35 cyclones (19 severe) on West Coast In the 19 severe cyclonic storms, death toll > 10,000 lives

In 21 cyclones in Bay of Bengal (India and Bangladesh) 1.25 million lives have been lost

Governance Issues
Relationship between Development and Climate Change-Sustainable Development Relationship between Natural Resource Management and Climate Change-Water, Soil and Air Relationship between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change- Hyogo Framework of Action-Preparedness, Mitigation and Adaptation

Climate Change and DRR


Water related hazards (Floods/Droughts/Cyclones/Heat or Cold wave etc) Food Security
Water Sustainable Agriculture Sustainable Forestry Alternatives (Rural Industries) Adaptation measures

(Million ha)

India China USA Pakistan Iran Mexico Turkey Thailand Indonesia Russia 0

57 56 25 19 8 6 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6


10 20 30 40 50 60

Precision land leveling

Use of syphon tubes and getted pipes

Sprinkler irrigation method is good for close growing crops

Traveling gun sprinkler

National Action Plan


National Plan with 8 Missions State Level Plan District Level Plan Block Level Plan Village Level Plan Sectoral Plans Administration and Action Plans

India: Climate Action Plan


National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission on sustainable habitat National Water Mission National Mission on Sustaining Himalyan Ecosystem National Mission on Green India National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for climate change

State Level Plans


Delhi Action Plan 2009-2012 Gujarat Orrisa Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Karnataka Uttarakhand Uttar Pradesh

recognise the importance of creativity and innovation

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