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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture

This is has been our longer term wave count for quite some time. So far there has been nothing in the recent price action to alter this view. Bigger picture, 1345 still looks like a significant market top, though the (B) wave is probably not complete. Wave “z” should last until the end of year. Presidential election years are “typically” good years for the market. This wave count suggests otherwise....

-B“b”

REPRINTED from 10/23/2011

“y”

Important Top at 1345

(B) “z” “a” “w”

“x”

“x”

(C)

“c” (A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture
-B“b”
The z-wave does not yet look complete. We knew that this wave would last until at least the end of the year and it has not disappointed. We had been suggesting for several weeks that it would take the shape of classic contracting triangle. That‟s still a good probability but the action in the last two weeks has put some doubt to that idea. The exact “form” of this “z” –wave cannot yet be determined. Using the bigger picture formation, though, we do know that it should only last a few weeks longer and that it has likely already achieved it‟s highest price.

“y”

Important Top at 1345 a c?

(B) “z”

“a” “w”
b?

“x” “x”

(C)

“c” (A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
My temptation is to label the price action as a “contracting triangle” from the “x” wave low because that‟s what I “want” to see. And, it‟s possible that this is the correct shorter term count. The one problem is that duration of the c-wave seems a little too “short lived.” If it is a triangle formation, then a more „rigid‟ accounting would look like the next slide….

a
-y-

(B)
c?
-b-

“z” e?

-w-a-x-

d?

-c-

b?

(C)

“x”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
The outline presented below is probably a better accounting of the price action. If there’s a way for a wave to last longer, then it’s best to just assume it will. The chart pattern below also implies that this is NOT going to be a great market to be “involved with” as there will be tremendous opportunity to get “chopped up” up within this triangle.

a
-y-a-b-

c?
-c-

(B) “z” e?

-w-a-x-

-b-

d?
-c-

b?

(C)

“x”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
If a triangle does not develop for the “z” wave, then it will be a “diametric” pattern that would look something like this, another outcome and reason for short term traders NOT to be heavily “involved.”

a
-y-

e? c?
-b-

(B) “z”
g?

-w-a-x-

d? f?
-c-

b?

(C)

“x”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance
For those traders who really can‟t stay away from the action, the following levels represent first and second points of support and resistance. If one were to point a gun to my head and say “Make a trade right now that will make money in the next few days” … I would probably buy this market in front of 1196 and run a stop below that level. Fortunately, there is no gun to anyone‟s head. A break below 1196 should cause the market to “coast” to 1158.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper - Daily (Non-Log)
The other possibility is that the (C) wave concluded at $4.54 and we could be at the tail end of a bona fide impulse lower. This is the wave count that could cause A LOT of problems for bulls and bears alike because it will create a “bear trap” on the new low. The ensuing corrective rally will give Copper bulls plenty of false hope that will end in despair. (C) “3” I‟m rooting for this outcome as it‟s “5” been a long time since we‟ve witnessed a large scale “impulsion” and it would set up easier trading opportunities.
2

REPRINTED from 12/11/2011

“4”

1

4

The Bottom Line is that the Copper picture is not telling a good tale. There’s room for Copper to grind a little higher, but this market is a sale into the $3.75-4.00 zone and should not be even considered a buy until it sets a new low sub-$2.99.

3 5 “1” or “a”

“2”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper - Daily (Non-Log)

2

My last report on Copper was bearish. If there are any traders who are holding short positions in copper, some resistance points have been highlighted below. A move back above $3.47 should cause bears to stop out of shorter term (new) trades. A break above $3.62 should cause all shorts to exit the market for further evaluation. If a triangle did finish near $3.62 and this market is now thrusting to the downside, it should not be able to sustain any kind of meaningful bounce higher. The 3.4760 level is the 61.8% retrace of the last move lower.

1 4

3 5 “1” or “a”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author‟s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.