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S&P 500 ~ Year Ahead Look

This is my projected price action for 2012. The world¶s political focus will turn to the U.S. Presidential Elections. The U.S. Stock Market has held in very well during the ³upheaval/crisis´ facing Europe. The wave count suggests that situation will change in the year ahead. The market looks headed for another whipsaw/choppy year but there should be a downward bias as the (C) wave Important Top at 1345 ³x´ begins to take hold. One wonders what ³news´ might cause the bear market?
a c

(B) ³z´
e

Rally into election due to greater ³certainty´

b

³w´
b

d

³y´ ³x´

a
Summer Swoon during ³Presidential´ uncertainty

³a´ (C)

The above bearish wave count is predicated on the S&P 500 remaining below 1345. Any break of that level would cause a recount.

(A)
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
The outline presented below is probably a better accounting of the price action. If there¶s a way for a wave to last longer, then it¶s best to just assume it will. The chart pattern below also implies that this is NOT going to be a great market to be ³involved with´ as there will be tremendous opportunity to get ³chopped up´ up within this triangle.

REPRINTED from 12/19/2011
a
-y-a-b-

c?
-c-

(B) ³z´ e?

-w-a-x-

-b-

d?
-c-

b?

(C)

³x´
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
The proposed c-wave within the triangle seems to have further to run. It¶s possible that it has already concluded but it would mean a very short -c- within c. Unlikely. Prime targets for the -c- wave would be 1293 and 1311. 1293 would the 61.8% of a-wave and would look like a ³double top.´ 1311 would be the lower degree -a- = -c-. The implications are for a triangle with upward-sloping bias. c?
-c-

a
-y-a-

(B) ³z´ e?

-b-

-w-a-x-b-

-c-

d?

b?

(C)

³x´

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance
For those traders who really can¶t stay away from the action, the following levels represent first and second points of support and resistance. If one were to point a gun to my head and say ³Make a trade right now that will make money in the next few days´ « I would probably buy this market in front of 1196 and run a stop below that level. Fortunately, there is no gun to anyone¶s head. A break below 1196 should cause the market to ³coast´ to 1158.

REPRINTED from 12/19/2011

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance

The first of level of support from the last report (12/19/11) held and the market bounced sharply. Maybe someone should have been ³holding a gun to my head´«. Based on the shorter term wave count, this market looks headed higher to begin the new year. Traders who are long should consider 1228 as a ³stop´ for any length. That¶s the 61.8% retrace of the last move up from 1201--a break of 1228 would alter the very short term bullish wave count. I would be looking to sell short this market into the 1293-1311 zone. Serious consideration should also be given to selling short on a breakdown below 1228 «

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Apple Daily Chart
Very interesting pattern in Apple. Check out what looks to be a large scale ³head and shoulders´ formation with a ³double head.´ What¶s really interesting is that a similar pattern appeared on a smaller scale in the first half the year. Fractals baby! If history is any guide, Apple will get a vigorous test of the neckline around $360/share. Any further advance in the stock price will start to breakdown the look of the potential H&S development.

Double Head Right Shoulder?

Left Shoulder

Double Head

Left Shoulder

Right Shoulder

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1³ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author¶s interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.