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The Century climate challenge

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³One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.´ Chinese Proverb ³You already know enough. So do I. It is not knowledge we lack. What is missing is the courage to understand what we know and to draw conclusions.´ Sven Lindqvist

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The world has less than a decade to avoid dangerous climate change that could bring unprecedented human development reversals Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor, a constituency with no responsibility for the ecological debt we are running up, who face the most immediate and most severe human costs The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a µtwin track¶ approach that combines stringent mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened international cooperation on adaptation The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali is a unique opportunity to put the interests of the world¶s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations

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The 21st Century climate challenge Three distinctive characteristics: ± It is cumulative ± The effects are irreversible ± Large time lags ± today¶s emissions are tomorrow¶s problems ± It is global .

It reached 379 ppm in 2005 Between 2000 and 2005 an average of 26 Gt of CO2 was releases into the atmosphere each year ‡ ‡ .Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks & increasing temperatures ‡ In the past 100 years the earth has warmed 0.70C Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing at 1.9 ppm each year.

The Global carbon account ‡ Defining dangerous ± keeping within 2°C ‡ Establishing a 21st Century carbon budget ‡ Defining a sustainable emission¶s pathway ‡ The problem of inertia± the case for adaptation .

456 Gt CO2 to avoid dangerous climate change .The 21st Century carbon budget is set at 1.

The 21st Century carbon budget is set for early expiry .

Charting a course away dangerous climate change The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows ± The world ± cuts of 50 percent by 2050 with a peak by 2020 ± Developed countries ± cuts of 80 percent by 2050 ± Developing countries ± cuts of 20 percent by 2050 with respect to 1990 .

Halving emissions by 2050 could avoid dangerous climate change .

Nigeria. Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people) The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility ‡ ‡ .Some people walk more lightly than others ‡ The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt.

we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2 .5 Gt CO2 per year ‡ Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29 Gt ‡ If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada.How many planets? ‡ The 21st century carbon budget amounts to 1.456 Gt or around 14.

´ Kofi Annan ³Like slavery and apartheid.´ Nelson Mandela . Without action they will pay a high price for the actions of others. It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated by the actions of human beings. They also contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases.Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world ³The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. poverty is not natural.

Risk and vulnerability ‡ Climate risk is an external fact of life for the entire world ‡ Vulnerability is a measure of capacity to manage climate hazards without suffering a long-term potentially irreversible loss of well-being. ‡ The state of human development shapes the process by which risk is converted into vulnerability .

500 in OECD countries A risk differential of 79 .Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries ‡ 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries ‡ The corresponding number is 1 in 1.

± Around 28 percent of children in LDCs are underweight or stunted.‡ Poverty. child mortality and malnutrition The human development backdrop ± There are still around 1 billion people living on less than a dollar a day. ± Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to achieve the MDG on child mortality ‡ Inequality ± More than 80 percent of the world¶s population lives in countries where income differentials are widening ± Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for early recovery after shocks .

Low human development traps The potential human costs of climate change have been understated ‡ Climate related risks force people into downward spirals of disadvantage that undermine future oppurtunities ‡ In Ethiopia. childre exposed to a drought in early childhood are 36 percent more likely to be malnourished five years later ± a figure that translates into 2 million additional cases of child maknutrition ‡ Indian women born during a drought or a flood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likely to ever attend primary school .

Five human development tipping points  Reduced agricultural productivity  Heightened water insecurity  Increased exposure to extreme weather events  Collapse of ecosystems  Increased health risks .

Climate change will hurt developing country agriculture .

could decline as much as 70 percent In Central Asia.Heightened water insecurity ± glacial melting ‡ Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40 percent of the world¶s population. The flow of the Indus. In the arid cost of Peru. losses of glacial melt into Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water for irrigation and hydroelectric power ‡ ‡ ‡ . 80 percent of fresh water originates from glacial melt.

18 percent of land area could be inundated affecting 11 percent of the population ± In the Maldives.4o increase in temperature. Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371 million by the end of the 21st century Possible consequences of one meter rise in sea level ± In Lower Egypt. 6 million people displaced and 4. 22 million people displaced ± In Bangladesh.Extreme weather events ‡ The number of additional people experiencing coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332 million for a 3o. more than 80 percent of land area is less than 1 meter above sea level ‡ ‡ .500 kms2 of farmland flooded ± In Vietnam.

Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation ³We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.´ Helen Keller . together we can do so much.´ Mahatma Gandhi ³Alone we can do so little.´ Albert Einstein ³Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction.

Avoiding dangerous climate change ± strategies for mitigation ‡ Setting mitigation targets: current problems ‡ Pricing carbon: the role of markets ‡ The role of public policy: regulation and research & development .

Problems setting emission reduction targets ‡ Insufficient ambition ‡ Insufficient urgency ‡ Inaccurate indicators ‡ Inadequate sectoral coverage ‡ Inconsistent base years Targets are de-linked from policies .

Pricing carbon emissions ‡ Market failure: Polluters do not suffer the worse consequences of their own pollution ‡ Immediate challenge: to push the price of carbon to a level consistent with the sustainable emissions pathway ‡ Ways to do it: taxation and capand-trade and trade .

the government sets an overall emissions cap and issues tradable allowances to allow business the ³right to emit´ .Taxation versus cap-and-trade Where should the price of carbon be set? How should the price be generated? ± Under carbon taxation emitters are required to pay for each tone of CO2 they produce ± Under cap-and-trade.

The relative merits of taxation and cap-and-trade ‡ Administration ‡ Price predictability ‡ Revenue mobilization The differences can be exaggerated .

The critical role of regulation and government action ‡ The energy mix ‡ The residential sector ‡ Vehicle emission standards ‡ R&D and deployment of low carbon technologies .

The Energy Mix ‡ ‡ Currently energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels Renewable energy is not competitive with coal-fired power ± price of carbon and incentives for predicable markets can play a role ± Germany¶ Renewable Sources Act ± fix price for 20 years ± Spain ± wind power satisfies around 8 percent of total electricity demand. In two decades wind has increased the share in electricity generation to 20 percent . In 2005 saved 19 million t CO2 emissions ± Denmark ± tax breaks on capital investments.

Residential Sector ‡ ‡ Low cost mitigation In OECD residential accounts for 35-40 percent of national CO2 emissions Appliances alone produce roughly 12 percent Policies on building and appliances could save up to 29 percent emissions (3. France and Germany) ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ .9 Gt CO2) by 2020 equivalent to three times current emissions of India Average European household could save 200 to 1000 Euros annually through energy efficiency The best efficiency standards of electrical appliances could save 322 million t CO2 by 2010 equivalent to 100 million cars off the road (all cars from Canada.

Vehicle Emission Standards ‡ Personal transportation is the largest consumer of oil ‡ In OECD the automobile sector accounts for about 30 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions ‡ Improvements in the United States regulatory standards would represent cuttings equivalent to France¶s total emissions .

Increased coal efficiency could cut CO2 emissions .

´ Archbishop Desmond Tutu ³An injustice committed against anyone is a threat to everyone.Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation ³If you are neutral in a situation of injustice. you have chosen the side of the oppressor.´ Montesquieu .

actual multilateral financing delivered through UNFCCC amounted to US$ 26 million This is equivalent to one week spending in floods defences in the UK Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and fulfillment of pledges present further limitations ‡ ‡ .Towards adaptation apartheid? Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds ‡ By mid-2007.

Social protection .Investing in adaptation up to 2015 Additional financing needs for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015 .Strengthening disaster response .Climate proofing infrastructure .

The report argues for the creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility. We need to act now. . ‡ Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist. ‡ Climate change is an urgent matter. ‡ International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is needed. ‡ Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climate change and the threats it poses to humanity. Adaptation plans needs need to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation.The Human Development Report underscores that: ‡ The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. ‡ Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. They are at greatest risk to face human development reversals leading to low human development traps. International cooperation has been slow to materialize.

The HDR 2007/2008 will be launched 27 November 2007 http://hdr.org .undp.