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Module 1.

1 Decision Support System & Expert System

DECISION MAKING AND DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS


Information Requirements of Key Decision-Making Groups in a Firm

Content Types
 Database Tables  Operational Data Stores  Data Warehouses Structured Content  Custom Forms  XML Data  SGML Semi-Structured Content 80% of Content  Emails  Documents, PDFs  Spreadsheets  Presentations  Audio, Video  Web Content

Unstructured Content

The Role of Content in Business


Content is the context in which decisions are made

Web Pages

Forms

Lifecycle Management Library Services


Electronic Documents

Search Records Management Archive

Reports

Paper Documents & Files

Photos, Graphics, Video

Collaboration Security & Access Management Content Management


Fax BPM & Enterprise Applications

Email

Other Repositories

80% of Your Enterprise Data is Unstructured

Databases

Billing statements Claims images Customer correspondence Mortgage docs Contracts Signed BOLs Healthcare EOBs Marketing collateral Website content Voice authorizations Signature cards Credit enrollments Material Safety Data Sheets ISO 9000 docs Plant schematics Product images Spec sheets .and much more!

Decision Support Systems


Decision Support System is a computer based information system designed to facilitate the decision making process of semi structured tasks

Types of DSS
Communication driven DSS Chat and Instant messaging software, online collaboration, net-meeting system Data Driven DSS OLAP Document Driven DSS Policy, procedure, Catalogue, product specification Knowledge Driven DSS
Consumers of a Business

Model Driven DSS


Optimization and Simulation Model / SDSS

Web based DSS


OLAP, BI

DSS Techniques Statistical models Optimization models Forecasting models Sensitivity analysis (what-if models)

DSS Techniques
What-If Analysis End user makes changes to variables, or relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the values of other variables Sensitivity Analysis A special case of what-if analysis The value of only one variable is changed repeatedly, and the resulting changes on other variables are observed Typically used when there is uncertainty about the assumptions made in estimating the value of certain key variables

Decision Support System


What-if Analysis
End user makes changes to variables, or relationships among variables, and observes the resulting changes in the values of other variables

Sensitivity Analysis
Value of only one variable is changed repeatedly and the resulting changes in other variables are observed

Decision Support System


Goal-Seeking
Set a target value for a variable and then repeatedly change other variables until the target value is achieved How can analysis

Optimization
Goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target variables given certain constraints One or more other variables are changed repeatedly until the best values for the target variables are discovered

Goal-Seeking Analysis Instead of observing how changes in a variable affect other variables, goal-seeking sets a target value (a goal) for a variable, then repeatedly changes other variables until the target value is achieved Optimization Analysis A more complex extension of goal-seeking The goal is to find the optimum value for one or more target variables, given certain constraints

Expert Systems
The transfer of expertise from an expert to a computer and then to a user involves four activities:
Knowledge acquisition Knowledge representation Knowledge inference Knowledge transfer

Structure and Process of an Expert System

The human mental process is internal, and it is too complex to be represented as an algorithm. However, most experts are capable of expressing their knowledge in the form of rules for problem solving. IF THEN IF THEN the traffic light is green the action is go the traffic light is red the action is stop

Rules can represent relations, recommendations, directives, strategies and heuristics: Relation IF the fuel tank is empty THEN the car is dead Recommendation IF the season is autumn AND the sky is cloudy AND the forecast is drizzle THEN the advice is take an umbrella Directive IF the car is dead AND the fuel tank is empty THEN the action is refuel the car

Strategy IF the car is dead THEN the action is check the fuel tank; step1 is complete IF AND THEN step1 is complete the fuel tank is full the action is check the battery; step2 is complete the spill is liquid the spill pH < 6 the spill smell is vinegar the spill material is acetic acid

Heuristic IF AND AND THEN

Rules for a Credit Application


Mortgage application for a loan for INR 100,000 to INR 200,000 If there are no previous credits problems, and If month net income is greater than 4x monthly loan payment, and If down payment is 15% of total value of property, and If net income of borrower is > $25,000, and If employment is > 3 years at same company

Then accept the applications

Else check other credit rules

Early Expert Systems


DENDRAL used in chemical mass spectroscopy to identify chemical constituents MYCIN medical diagnosis of illness DIPMETER geological data analysis for oil PROSPECTOR geological data analysis for minerals XCON/R1 configuring computer systems

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Applications of Expert Systems


PUFF: Medical system for diagnosis of respiratory conditions

PROSPECTOR: Used by geologists to identify sites for drilling or mining

Applications of Expert Systems


MYCIN: Medical system for diagnosing blood disorders. First used in 1979

DESIGN ADVISOR: Gives advice to designers of processor chips

Limitations of Expert Systems


Not widely used or tested Limited to relatively narrow problems Cannot readily deal with mixed knowledge Possibility of error Cannot refine own knowledge base Difficult to maintain May have high development costs Raise legal and ethical concerns

Problems with Expert Systems


Limited domain Systems are not always up to date, and dont learn No common sense Experts needed to setup and maintain system

Applications of Expert Systems


Credit granting Information management and retrieval AI and expert systems embedded in products Plant layout Hospitals and medical facilities Help desks and assistance Employee performance evaluation Loan analysis Virus detection Repair and maintenance Shipping Marketing Warehouse optimization

Legal and Ethical Issues


Who is responsible if the advice is wrong?
The user? The domain expert? The knowledge engineer? The programmer of the expert system shell? The company selling the software?

Expert Systems on the Web


http://www.aiinc.ca/demos/whale.html http://www.vanguardsw.com/ decisionscript/examples.htm http://www.exsys.com/demomain.html http://www.expertise2go.com/webesie/car http://www.expertise2go.com/webesie/wine

Data, Knowledge and Intelligence


Business Value

alignment Wisdom Increased Intelligence flexibility


Collection of past experiences and acceptance

Knowledge Increased Grasping Information to derive Knowledge utilization Information Reduce Data
Virtualize: Create logical asset pools Package Data in useful manner to derive Information costs Simplify: Consolidate Servers, Storage & Network assets Bulk of Data Available in various formats

Intelligence: Provision: knowledge Smart Use of Automate to get things done

Business Flexibility & Responsiveness