FUTURE OF DATABASES
Javeed A Hussain
Once we see the history (highlights) in its correct perspective.A Glimpse Into the Future of Database Management
We must begin by seeing how the constant changes in technology used for databases have effected database management over the past six decades. we can understand the evolution of Oracle database systems into their current state.
1960s Only the largest of corporations could afford their own data processing center. and all small. and all Oracle database are solid-state. servers with 256 processors run hundreds of Oracle instances.A Brief of Past. Monolithic servers reappear. IBM dominated the server market with giant mainframe servers that cost millions of dollars. and Oracle shops undertake a massive server consolidation. Present & Future
In the 1960s. By 2008. Hardware costs fall so much that 70 percent of the IT budget is spent on programmers and DBAs.
. Disk becomes obsolete.to mid-sized companies had to rent CPU cycles from a data center in order to automate their business processes.
allowing for temporal data presentation
It s really important to note that all of these changes were the direct reaction to advances in hardware technology.
Large mainframe servers replaced the minicomputers of the early 21st century PCs are replaced by IAs (Internet Appliances) High-speed network bandwidth allows instant content delivery and server-to-server communications All database systems are solid-state Databases become three-dimensional.
.The Oracle professionals of the year 2020 have far different challenges than their ancestors way back in 2005.
Optical eye readers can identify your retina signature.
. The first 128-bit processors are introduced. Gallium Arsenide replaces silicon for RAM chips. Worldwide high-speed satellite becomes the backbone of the Internet. and a quick glance is all that is required for positive identification. and the bulk of the IT budget goe s to human costs.What were the major changes in hardware over the past few years
2008 The first database server with more than 1. increasing access speed into picoseconds.000 CPUs is introduced. enabling massive IT server consolidation. Hardware prices fall so much that they become negligible.
The increasing availability of computing resources led to worldwide infrastructure regulations. The SQL-09 committee simplifies data query syntax. requiring positive identification for Internet access. Walk down the street and billboards target their content to the needs of those viewing it at that moment. Internic implements WICA and VIP.
2009 The United Nations passes the Worldwide Internet Certification Act (WICA). reducing spam and cybercrime by 95 percent worldwide. Advertising becomes active. and retinal imaging allows for instant identification and customizing of marketing messages.
. allowing natural language database communication. Internet bandwidth increase to allow high-speed communications between any server.
2008 Oracle 14m provides inter-instance sharing of RAM resources. requiring non-anonymous access and reducing cybercrime. non-disk database management. allowing three-dimensional data representation.
. Oracle starts manufacturing IAs for $50 each. Ellison receives the Nobel Peace Prize for his humanitarian efforts. Ellison becomes the world s first trillionaire. Oracle s Larry Elision finances the Worldwide Internet Identification Database. Oracle 16ss introduces solid-state. replacing PCs and making the Internet available everywhere in the world.Oracle Corporation is expected to capture more then 90% of the database market by 2020. All Oracle instances become self-managing. Oracle 17-3d introduces the time dimension to database management.
Hardware advances by 2020
and 100 GB of RAM for $100.Disk Storage Changes
Disk storage costs fall 10x every year. Cost benefit : You can buy 100 GB disks for $10.
. Storage media is out dated every 25 years.
RAM Storage Changes
The introduction of Quantum-state Gallium Arsenide RAM in 2009 is the largest breakthrough in RAM in more then 40 years. the speed of RAM will increased to picoseconds (billionths of a second) $100 for 100 GB RAM. RAM speed remained constant at about 20 microseconds (millionths of a second).000 much more faster then 20th century RAM. Cost benefit : A terabyte of RAM will costs less than $200 in 2020
. By the end of 2009. After 2009. Before 2009. with access time 600.
2005-2009 : RAM had to be physically localized near the CPU to keep the processors running at full capacity. and server blades (and Oracle10g Grid computing) will be replaced by large. I/O bandwidth capacity doubles every ten years: 8 bit 1970s 16 bit 1980s 32 bit 1990s 64 bit 2000s 128 bit 2010s 256 bit 2020s Super-fast processors sounded the death knell for the age of small computers. CPUs continue to increase speed by four times as much every three years and cut cost in half. Cost benefit : 4-Way SMP porcessor will cost less than $300 by 2020. monolithic servers. After 2009 the speed of RAM will increase to piseconds (billionsths of second).
..So far we have seen the future predictions and few major changes in Oracle database technology and demonstrated how hardware advances preceded and facilitated the change to Oracle.
What will be the duties of Oracle DBA¶s by 2020.
2015 : Many of the Oracle DBA functions led to the Oracle professional accepting responsibility for a whole new set of duties : Data Modeling and Oracle database desing. software piracy is completely eliminated. Managing data security . Best of all for the vendor. Data interface protocols.
. Applying patches to Oracle software will be history. Software vendors can instantly transmit patches and upgardes without service interruption.
2020 : DBA will spend less time on installing and maintaing multiple copies of Oracle. Predicting future oracle trends for hardware usage and user load. all tuning is fully automated and hundreds of Oracle instances all resides within a single company side server. All software to be accessed from a single master location (virtual space). Managing development projects .
000 per Terabyte. Cost benefit : RAM costs falling below $1.Oracle·s Inter-Instance Database Inter-
Oracle abondoned grid comuutingin favor of inter-instance sharing of RAM resources.
. Real Application Clusters (RAC) and Automatic Memory Management (AMM) is to create a new way for hundreds of Oracle instances to share RAM resources between instances. multi-gigabyte data caches became commonplace.
Oracle was able to reduce the number of background processes required to manage Oracle and exploit the new solid-state disks.SolidSolid-State Oracle Database
The idea of ³caching´ was gone forever.
. With this greatly simplified architecture. and everything was available with nanosecond access speeds.
Oracle software is dynamically accessed over the Web and a single copy of Oracle executables is accessed from the main Oracle software server in Redwood Shores.
.Inside Oracle 2020
The SQL-09 standard also simplefied data access for relational databases. The SQL-09 standard made it eay to add artifical intelligent langauag pre-processors to natural language interfaces to oracle data. Oracle¶s cost-based SQL optimizer is will be100% effective and dynamic sampling ensures that the execution plan is optimal for every query. Several hundred master copies of Oracle exist on the world wide web server applying patches is a simple matter of re-directing your Oracle instance to pull the executables from another master copy of Oracle Oracle software to be instantly available by any Internet-enabled appliance..
temporal dimension to database
Adding the third dimension of time. Oracle was able to exploit the ancient concept of their Flashback product to allow any Oracle database to be viewed as a dynamic object with the changes to the database available in real-time.
Oracle 17-3d is designed to add the management.Oracle 3d Adds a New Dimension
With all Oracle database running in solid-state memory. the introduction of the new 32-state Gallium Arsenide chips with picosecond access speeds shifted the database bottleneck to the network. 2020 : All traditional wiring has been replaced by fiber optics and all system software is delivered over the web.
.google.. knowing that Oracle databases will step up to utilize the new hardware advances within their database products and tools. we can always take clues from the advances in hardware.com/site/jsaconsultingservices/
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While it¶s always impossible to accurately predict the future.