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S&P 500 ~ Daily

Last weekend, we put forward the idea that the New Year would start with a decent move higher. Mr. Market did not disappoint as the S&P 500 rallied 27 pts on the first day of the trading year. It still looks like it has further to work higher but is now entering “sell territory” as the c-wave seems closer to completing. Targets remain 1293 or 1311 for the c-wave.

a
1284

c?
-c-

(B) “z” e?

-a-

d?
-b-

-c-

b?

REPRINTED from 1/8/2012
“x”

(C)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
The c-wave has now achieved it’s minimum objective of 1293, peaking at 1297 last week. It also achieved the correct ‘duration’ of -a- + -b- = -c-. So, this market is now due for a corrective move lower. I’ve sketched a d-wave that will be 61.8% of b-wave [around 1213-1225 depending on where wave-c exactly ends. So, market participants should be prepared for ‘increased volatility’ in then next several weeks. c?
-c-

a
-a-

(B) “z” e?

d?
-b-

-c-

b?

(C)

“x”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance

REPRINTED from 1/8/2012

First and Second points of resistance remain unchanged from last week, but we can now raise support points for traders who are holding length. 1265 is the 23.6% retrace of the last move higher and aligns with last week’s low print. 1248 looks like “classic chart” support. Those levels should be considered decent points for “stop loss” strategies.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance

I’ve made some slight adjustments to weekly resistance and support. The market exhibited some signs of peaking action on Friday, but we’ll need to see some ‘follow through’ on Tuesday to confirm the topping action. A break of 1274 would cause me to “sell short” and should certainly stop out traders who are holding length. 1274 is the 23.6% of the move up from 1200 and aligns well with previous chart support. Alternatively, I will sell this market short between 1297 and 1311 “if” we get to that zone. I will risk 20% of Max Short on either one of these trades if they get triggered.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Weekly Continuation (Log Scale)
It’s been awhile since we’ve last peered into the wild wild world of Gold. Our last report highlighted the idea that we would witness a triangle pattern off the highs and that 1478-1577 would be an important zone of support on the first go. We also made mention of the long, long term (G) 23.6% retracement point $1,528. It’s worthwhile to note that gold bottomed at $1,524, right in the middle of our support zone and 4 bucks away from the 23.6%. “b” The market broke through the very clear cut trendline, but it did not collapse. Markets that tend to ‘meander’ through a support line strongly suggest a triangle development. Therefore, we’ll continue to go with 1577 that idea….
(E) “a” “c”
1478

-Y(I)

“d”

“e” (H)

(C)

(F)

REPRINTED from 1/8/2012
(A) (D)

(B)

The short term implications here are bullish, but traders must understand that Gold is approaching the end of multi-decade move, so it will be very smart to use good risk management techniques. In other words, USE STOP LOSS STRATEGIES ON LONG POSITIONS. The bounce up from $1,524 has been decent and it appears to be a medium term bottom. Traders should use the 61.8% retrace of this move as a first level of support--that level would be $1,565/oz based on Friday’s close. Traders should consider trimming length below that level ($1,565) and should not be holding ANY length below $1,524.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - 60 Min. Continuation

Last week’s Gold update made the case for a shorter term bullish move in the yellow metal. This slide is for any traders/investors who are holding speculative length. I’m raising “stops” on length to 1609 and 1593. Those are nice Fibonacci retracements that also align well with obvious chart support. In terms of wave count, it’s too early to tell what “shape” or pattern is playing out. It’s an “odd” formation at present; so, best to be nimble as it’s hard to say what exactly is unfolding. The move up from 1523.90 does NOT look impulsive which is the other reason to be running tighter stops for short term length.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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