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Cost Management

HARSH JAIN

People. Processes. Technology. Results.

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Agenda
Cost Management Knowledge Sharing session Introductions and Overview Project Cost Estimating Project Cost Budgeting Project Cost Control Accounting Standards 5 mins 10 mins 10 mins 20 mins 10 mins 20 mins 15 mins

Sample Questions Open Discussions

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Knowledge Areas and Processes Recap

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What are the Drivers of Cost Management


Costing is done on the resources required to accomplish a project Identification and planning of resources required for the project costing are: People Equipments Materials needed to complete the work Quantity of the needed resources Schedule when the resources are needed Applying Expert judgment to evaluate and analyze the resources that the project needs Value Analysis to find more affordable, less costly methods of accomplishing the same work The Cost Management plan can establish Precision Level Units of Measure Organizational Procedures Links Control Thresholds Earned Value Rules Reporting formats Process Description
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Project Cost Management - Overview


Project Cost Management includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting and controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved budget.
o Cost Estimating Developing an approximation of the costs of the resources needed to complete project activities o Cost Budgeting Aggregating the estimated costs of individual activities or work packages to establish a cost baseline o Cost Control Influencing the Factors that create cost variances and controlling changes to the project budget These Processes interact with each other and with the processes of other knowledge areas like Time Management, Procurement Management, Scope Management , Communication Management and Integration Management

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Project Cost Management - Interactions with other Processes

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Project Cost Management - Overview

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Cost Estimating

People. Processes. Technology. Results.

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Cost Estimating - Objectives Objectives


Approximation of costs of the resources needed to complete each scheduled activity Includes identifying and considering various costing alternatives direct and indirect (e.g. spending additional time in design would save more effort
during coding)

Identify and implement meaningful UOM (e.g. units of currency is normally


used but at times other UOM like Staff Hours/Days can be used to facilitate appropriate management control)

Perform subsequent iterations (of cost estimation) at the end of the phases in the project life cycle if required by the project to provide more accurate cost estimates (e.g. in project initiation phase the
cost estimate may have tolerance of 50 to +100% but later in the project as more information is available, this can narrow down to 10 to +15%)

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Cost Estimating Overview

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Cost Estimating Interaction with other processes

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Cost Estimating - Inputs


Enterprise Environmental Factors Marketplace Conditions (what product, services and results are available in market; from whom and under what T&C see Section 4.1.1.3) Commercial Database (info. on cost of resources, skills and HR costs, std. Cost of material/equipment) Organizational Process Assets Cost Estimating policies Cost estimating templates Historical Information Project files Project Team Knowledge Lessons Learned Project Scope Statement Project Requirements Constraints Assumptions Project Deliverables

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Cost Estimating - Inputs


Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) WBS Dictionary Project Management Plan Schedule Management Plan Staffing Management Plan Risk register

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Cost Estimating Tools and Techniques


Analogous Estimating
Refers to actual cost of previous similar projects and uses expert judgment Used when limited information is available for the project Less costly technique but the accuracy is less. Most reliable when previous project is similar (not just appear to be similar) and the estimators have needed expertise. For each resource schedule activities, the estimator should have the rates of the following Unit rates  Staff cost per hour  Bulk Material cost per cubic yard For products, services or results under contract it is required to record the escalation factors along with the standard rates. The rates can be obtained by  Gathering Quotes through inquiry  Commercial database If actual rates are not available then estimates the rates Estimates Individual work packages or individual schedule activities with the lowest level of details Roll-up the detailed cost to the higher levels for reporting and tracking. Generally, activities with smaller associated effort increase the the accuracy of the schedule activity cost estimates.

Determine Resource Cost Rates

Bottom-up Estimating

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Cost Estimating Tools and Techniques


Parametric Estimating
Uses statistical relationship between historical data and other variables (e.g. square footage in construction, lines of code in s/w dev., required labour hours) to calculate a cost estimates for a schedule activity resource. Can produce higher levels of accuracy depending on the the sophistication as well as underlying resource quantity and cost data built in to the model Example: Estimated Cost = Planned quantity of work * Historical cost per unit

Project Management Software


The Project Management Software simplifies the use of some cost estimating techniques Examples of such tools are:  Cost estimating s/w applications  Spreadsheets  Simulation  Statistical tools The candidate vendor submit their bid for cost estimates in order to win a deal. Here additional cost estimating work can be required to examine the price of individual deliverables and derive a cost that supports the final total project cost.

Vendor Bid Analysis


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Cost Estimating Tools and Techniques


Reserve Analysis
Estimated costs to deal with anticipated but not certain events, the known unknowns Is total at the discretion of the project manager Has inherent problem of potentially overstating the cost estimates for the schedule activity. This can managed by:  Aggregate each schedule activitys cost contingency reserve for a group of related activities into a single contingency reserve and assigned it to a schedule activity.  This activity may be a zero duration activity that is placed across network path for that group of schedule activities and is used to hold the contingency reserve  As the schedule activities progress, the contingency reserve as measured by resource consumption of the non-zero duration schedule activites can be adjusted.  Hence the activity cost variance for the related group of schedule activities are more accurate because they are based on cost estimates that are not pessimistic  Alternatively, the schedule activity may be a buffer activity in the critical chain method and intentionally placed directly at the end of the network path for that group of schedule activities.

Cost of Quality
Quality Cost : Total cost incurred by investment in  preventing non-conformance to requirements  Appraising the product /service for conformance to requirements Failure costs or cost of Poor quality can be categorized as into internal/external Calculating the quality cost can be used to arrive at the cost estimation for the project

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Cost Estimating Outputs


Activity Cost Estimates
Quantitative assessment of the likely costs of the resources required to complete schedule activities. Presented in summary and/or detail Estimates includes all resources that are applied to the activity cost estimate and limited to:  Labour, Material, Equipment  Facilities, information technology and  Special categories like inflation allowances or cost contingency reserve

Activity Cost Estimates Supporting Detail


Provide clear, professional and complete picture by the cost estimates was derived. Should include:  Description Of Schedule activitys project scope of work  Documentation of the basis for the estimate (I.e. how it is developed)  Assumptions and constraints  Indication of estimate range e.g in form of percentage say 10% to +20%

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Cost Estimating Outputs


Requested Changes Cost Management Plan (updates)

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Cost Budgeting

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Cost Budgeting - Objectives Objectives


Aggregation of the estimated costs of individual schedule activities or work packages Establish total cost baseline for measuring project performance Cost baseline depends on: Project decisions with respect to maintenance of product, support of product, services offered etc

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Cost Budgeting Interactions with other processes

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Cost Budgeting

INPUTS
Project Scope Statement Work Breakdown structure WBS Dictionary Activity Cost Estimates Activity Cost Estimates supporting details Project schedule Resource Calendar Contract Cost Management Plan Cost Aggregation Reserve Analysis Parametric Estimating Funding Limit Reconciliation

OUTPUTS Tools and Techniques


Cost Baseline Project Funding Requirements Cost Management Plan (updates) Requested Changes

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Cost Budgeting: Inputs

Project Scope Statement - Funding constraints are reflected in the project scope statement. These constraints can be because of annual funding authorization WBS Provides the relationship among all components of the project and project deliverables WBS Dictionary Provide identification of deliverables and description of work in each WBS component required to produce each deliverable Activity cost estimates Cost estimate of each schedule activity Activity cost estimates supporting detail Project schedule Resource calendars Contract Information related to what products/services have been purchased, along with their costs, that are used in developing the budget Cost Management Plan

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Cost Budgeting- Tools and Techniques


Cost Aggregation
Aggregation Cost estimates of project

Aggregation

Cost estimates at a higher component level of WBS (Control accounts)

Aggregation

Cost estimates of individual work packets

Cost estimates of individual (scheduled) activities in a work package


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Cost Budgeting- Tools and Techniques


Reserve Analysis
Reserve is required to mitigate the risk arising out of negative impacts on budget of the project This technique establishes the contingency reserve that should be budgeted while establishing the cost budget of the project. E.g. Management contingency reserve Allowances for unplanned, but potentially required changes Unknown unknowns Project Manager must obtain approval before obligating or spending this reserve Not part of the project cost baseline, but included in the budget of the project These are not distributed as budget and hence are not part of earned value analysis

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Cost Budgeting- Tools and Techniques


Parametric Estimating
Estimation Technique of using project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to predict total project cost Use regression techniques to build a series of independent variables to predict the dependent variable For a model to be predictable it should not only work on the historic value with minimal variance but should remain predictable with new set of data Cost of building a parametric model and its accuracy to predict the dependent variable vary widely. The model is most likely to be reliable if: The historical information is accurate The parameters used in the model are readily quantifiable The model is scalable, such that it works for a large project as well as a small one

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Cost Budgeting- Tools and Techniques


Funding Limit Reconciliation
This technique helps in limiting large variations in periodic expenditure of funds Expenditure of funds is reconciled with funding limits Helps project manager to adjust the work scheduled for the project to regulate the expenditure Accomplished by imposing date constraints, schedule milestones or WBS components into project schedule If funds are used as a limiting resource during the development of project schedule, then the process is repeated using the new imposed date constraints

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Cost Budgeting: Outputs


Cost baseline Time phased budget. Used as a basis against which to measure, monitor and control the overall cost performance of the project. It is developed by summing estimated costs by period. It is usually displayed in the form of an S-curve

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Cost Budgeting: Outputs


Project Funding requirements Derived from the cost baseline. Funding usually occurs in incremental amounts that are not continuous and appears as a step function. Total funds required are those that are included in the cost baseline plus the management contingency reserve amount. Cost Management Plan (updates) If approved change requests result from the cost budgeting process, then cost management plan is updated Requested changes outcome of cost budgeting process. These changes are processed through Integrated Change Control process.

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Cost Control

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What is cost control?


Influence factors that create changes to baseline Ensure requested changes are agreed upon Managing actual changes when and as they occur Assuring that potential cost overruns do not exceed the authorized funding periodically and in total for the project Monitoring cost performance to detect and understand variances from the cost baseline Recording all appropriate changes accurately against the cost baseline Preventing incorrect, inappropriate, or unapproved changes from being included in the reported cost or resource usage Informing appropriate stakeholders of approved changes Acting to bring expected cost overruns within acceptable limits
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Cost Control

(PMBOK, pg 171)
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Cost Control - Inputs


Cost baseline Project Funding Requirements Performance Reports From Project Communication Management Work Performance Information Deliverables completed and not yet completed Costs authorized & incurred Estimates to complete scheduled activities Percent physically complete of the scheduled activities Approved Change Requests From Integrated Change Control Project Management Plan

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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques


Cost Change Control System Documented in cost management plan Defines procedures by which cost baseline can be changed Includes forms, documentation, tracking systems and approval levels necessary Performance Measurement Analysis Earned Value Technique (EVT) Performed for each scheduled activity, work package or control account Concepts Planned Value (PV)  Budgeted cost of work scheduled to be completed on activity or WBS component up to a given point in time Earned Value (EV)  Budgeted amount of work actually completed on scheduled activity or WBS component during a given time period Actual Cost (AC)  Total cost incurred in accomplishing work on the scheduled activity or WBS component during a given time period

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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques


Performance Measurement Analysis Concepts Cost variance (CV)  CV = EV - AC Schedule variance (SV)  SV = EV - PV Cost performance index (CPI)  CPI = EV / AC Cumulative CPI (CPIC)  CPIC = EVC / ACC Schedule performance index (SPI)  SPI = EV / PV

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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques


Performance Measurement Analysis Formulas in a nut shell BAC Budget at completion No Formula AC Actual Cost No Formula PV Planned Value No Formula EV Earned Value No Formula CV Cost Variance EV-AC SV Schedule Variance EV-PV CPI Cost Performing Index EV/AC SPI Schedule Performing Index EV/PV EAC Estimate at completion BAC/CPI ETC Estimate to complete EAC-AC VAC Variance at completion BAC-EAC

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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques

(PMBOK, pg 170)
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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques

Cheat Grid:

AC

EV

PV

CPI

SPI

CV

SV

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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques


Forecasting Making estimates, predictions of conditions in projects future based on information and knowledge available at the time of forecast Based on Work Performance Information Concepts Budget at Completion (BAC)  BAC = Total cumulative PV at completion Estimate to Complete (ETC)  Three different calculation technique 1. Based on new estimate Revised estimate for the work remaining 2. Based on atypical variances ETC = (BAC EVC) 3. Based on typical variances ETC = (BAC EVC) / CPIC Estimate at Completion (EAC)  Three different calculation technique 1. Based on new estimate EAC = ACC + ETC 2. Based on atypical variances EAC = ACC + BAC EV 3. Based on typical variances EAC = ACC + ((BAC EV) / CPIC)
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Cost Control - Tools & Techniques


Project Performance Reviews Variance analysis Compares actual performance to planned or expected performance Cost & schedule variances most commonly used Project scope, resource, quality, risk are other areas of importance Trend analysis Performance over time to determine improvement / deterioration Earned value technique Compare planned performance to actual performance Project Management Software Variance Management Responses to major or minor problems

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Cost Control - Output


Cost Estimates (Updates) Revised schedule activity cost estimates Cost Baseline (Updates) Performance Measurements Calculated CV, SV, CPI, SPI for WBS components in particular work packages and control accounts Forecasted Completion EAC & ETC values Requested Changes Recommended Corrective Actions To bring expected future performance in line with PMP Organizational Process Assets (Updates) Lessons learned including root cause of variance, reasons behind corrective action chosen and other types of lessons learned from cost, resource or resource production control Project Management Plan (Updates)
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Cost Control - Example


Exercise from Rita Mulcahy, Page 210.

You have a project to build a new fence. The fence is four sided. Each side is to take one day to build and is budgeted for $1,000 per side. The sides are planned to be completed one after the other. Today is the end of day three. Using the project status chart on the next slide, calculate EV, etc. Make sure you can interpret what each answer means.

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Cost Control - Example

Exercise from Rita Mulcahy, Page 210. Task Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Status at the end of Day 3 Complete, spent $1,000 S-----PF ----F Complete, spent $1,200 Half Done, spent $600 PS----PF Not yet started

Side 1

S------F

Side 2

Side 3

SPSPF

Side 4

Key: S Actual Start, F Actual Finish, PS Planned Start, and PF Planned Finish
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Cost Control - Example


What Is: PV EV AC BAC CV CPI SV SPI EAC ETC VAC
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Calculation
1,000+1,000+1,000 1,000+1,000+500 1,000+1,200+600 1,000+1,000+1,000+1,000 2,500-2,800 2,500/2,800 2,500-3,000 2,500/3,000 4,000/8.98 4,479-2,800 4,000-4,479

Answer
3,000 2,500 2,800 4,000 -300 .893 -500 .833 4,479 1,679 -479

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Accounting Standards
The PMBOK does not go into any detail about these standards, but they are covered in PMP Exam Prep, By Rita Mulcahy. Project Selection Methods Present Value Net Present Value Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Payback Periods Benefit Cost Ratio Opportunity Cost

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Accounting Standards Present Value


Present Value is only mentioned a couple of times on the exam and you will not need to calculate it, just understand what it means.
PV=FV/(1+r)n FV=Future Value r=Interest rate n=number of time periods This will tell you what the present value of money/revenue received from the project that is not payable until the future. (i.e. $300,000 or revenue 3 years from now at an interest rate of 10% has a present value of $225,394

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Accounting Standards Net Present Value


The PV of the total benefits (income or revenue) less the costs. you will not need to calculate it, just understand what it means.
Total PV of Revenue-Total PV of Costs = NPV If you have two projects and the NPV of one is higher than the other, you would want to choose the project with the higher NPV.

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Accounting Standards Internal Rate of Return


The rate of return a company can expect for their investment in the project. Calculating IRR is complex and requires the use of a computer. You will not need to calculate it for the exam, just understand what it means.

You want to choose the project with the higher IRR

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Accounting Standards Payback Period


The number of time periods it takes to recover your investment before you start accumulating profit.
You want to choose the project with quicker payback period

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Accounting Standards Benefits Cost Ratio


Compares the benefits to the costs of different projects where benefits are the same as revenue, or sometimes referred to as payback. A BCR >1 means the benefits are greater than the costs. A BCR of <1 means the costs are greater than the benefits. A BCR of 1 means the costs and benefits are the same

You want to choose the project with a higher BCR

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Accounting Standards Opportunity Costs


The opportunity given up by selecting one project over another.
You have two projects to pick from. Project A has a NPV of $45,000 and Project B has a NPV of $85,000. The opportunity cost of selecting Project B is $45,000

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Project Selection

Exercise from Rita Mulcahy, Page 214. Project A Project B Which project would you pick?

NPV IRR Payback Period Benefits Cost Ratio


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$95,000 13% 16 Months 2.97

$75,000 17% 21 Months 1.3

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Project Selection

Exercise from Rita Mulcahy, Page 214. Project A Project B Which project would you pick?

NPV IRR Payback Period Benefits Cost Ratio


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$95,000 13% 16 Months 2.97

$75,000 17% 21 Months 1.3

A B A A

You would pick Project A


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Other Definitions Needed for the Exam


Sunk Costs: According to accounting standards, the amount of money you are over budget should not be considered when deciding whether to continue with a troubled project. Law of diminishing returns: The more you put into something, the less you get out of it. For example, adding twice as many resources to a task may not get the task done any faster.

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Q&A and Discussions

People. Processes. Technology. Results.

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Thank you

People. Processes. Technology. Results.

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