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S&P 500 ~ Daily

The c-wave has now achieved it¶s minimum objective of 1293, peaking at 1297 last week. It also achieved the correct µduration¶ of -a- + -b- = -c-. So, this market is now due for a corrective move lower. I¶ve sketched a d-wave that will be 61.8% of b-wave [around 1213-1225 depending on where wave-c exactly ends. So, market participants should be prepared for µincreased volatility¶ in then next several weeks.

REPRINTED from 1/16/2012
a

c?
-c-

(B)
-a-

³z´ e?

d?
-b-

-c-

b?

(C)

³x´

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily
If a triangle does not develop for the ³z´ wave, then it will be a ³diametric´ pattern that would look something like this, another outcome and reason for short term traders NOT to be heavily ³involved.´

REPRINTED from 12/19/2011
a
-y-

e? c?
-b-

(B) ³z´
g?

-w-a-x-

d? f?
-c-

b?

(C)

³x´
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily

The price action the last few days has forced me to revisit this particular pattern which was highlighted on 12/19/11. The wave up from 1200 is not acting like an impulse at this point as it¶s channeling too well (green dashed lines). All the of the price legs from the ³x´ low look corrective in nature. Therefore, I¶m left with a diametric, a seven-legged correction. The market still looks poised for a corrective move lower sooner rather than later; but, it¶s impossible to tell exactly where the peak of e-wave will come. We will need to see a break of the uptrend channel before we can get excited about selling the S&P 500 again.

e? a

(B) ³z´
g?

c

d

f?

b

(C)

³x´

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance

REPRINTED from 1/16/2012

I¶ve made some slight adjustments to weekly resistance and support. The market exhibited some signs of peaking action on Friday, but we¶ll need to see some µfollow through¶ on Tuesday to confirm the topping action. A break of 1274 would cause me to ³sell short´ and should certainly stop out traders who are holding length. 1274 is the 23.6% of the move up from 1200 and aligns well with previous chart support. Alternatively, I will sell this market short between 1297 and 1311 ³if´ we get to that zone. I will risk 20% of Max Short on either one of these trades if they get triggered.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support and Resistance

My attempt to short this market did not last that long. I only see one good resistance point at this point, the 1347 level--the point at which the market really collapsed last year. Bulls should monitor the channel as well at the 23.6% retracement at 1289. At present, I¶m short-term neutral this market and would look to short only on a break below 1288.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - 60 Min. Continuation

REPRINTED from 1/16/2012

Last week¶s Gold update made the case for a shorter term bullish move in the yellow metal. This slide is for any traders/investors who are holding speculative length. I¶m raising ³stops´ on length to 1609 and 1593. Those are nice Fibonacci retracements that also align well with obvious chart support. In terms of wave count, it¶s too early to tell what ³shape´ or pattern is playing out. It¶s an ³odd´ formation at present; so, best to be nimble as it¶s hard to say what exactly is unfolding. The move up from 1523.90 does NOT look impulsive which is the other reason to be running tighter stops for short term length.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gold - Daily Continuation
The gold market continues to reward those carrying length. Though, it¶s becoming clearer now that that move is µcorrective¶ in nature (choppy channeling higher). I¶m raising stops for longs: 1632 is the 23.6% of the entire bounce an it aligns pretty well with classic chart support. I¶ve also highlighted here the 38.2% retrace of the entire move lower--it seems like the market is µfeeling¶ that level and slowing down a bit in front of it. From a triangle development perspective, however, the $1,692 would be a nice target as the 61.8% of b-wave.
b

d

e

a

c

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1³ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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