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Discrete Distributions Uniform Distribution Bernoulli Distribution Binomial Distribution Poisson Distribution Hypergeometric Distribution

Random Variables

A random variable is a function or rule that assigns a numerical value to each outcome in the sample space of a random experiment. Nomenclature: - Capital letters are used to represent random variables (e.g., X, Y). - Lower case letters are used to represent values of the random variable (e.g., x, y). A discrete random variable has a countable number of distinct values.

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Discrete Distributions

Probability Distributions

A discrete probability distribution assigns a probability to each value of a discrete random variable X. To be a valid probability, each probability must be between 0 e P(xi) e 1 and the sum of all the probabilities for the values of X must be equal to unity.

n

§ P( x ) ! 1

i i !1

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Discrete Distributions

When you flip a coin three times, the sample space has eight equally likely simple events. They are: 1st Toss H H H H T T T T 2nd Toss 3rd Toss H H H T T H T T H H H T T H T T

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THT.Discrete Distributions Example: Coin Flips If X is the number of heads. then X is a random variable whose probability distribution is as follows: Possible Events TTT HTT. TTH HHT. THH HHH Total x 0 1 2 3 P(x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8 1 5 . HTH.

30 Probability 0.10 0. 0.15 0.00 0 1 2 3 Number of Heads (X) 6 .25 0. However.Discrete Distributions Example: Coin Flips Note that the values of X need not be equally likely.35 0.20 0.40 0. their probabilities must sum to unity.05 0. Note also that a discrete probability distribution is defined only at specific points on the X-axis.

i !1 7 .Discrete Distributions Expected Value The expected value E(X) of a discrete random variable is the sum of all X-values weighted by their respective probabilities. n E ( X ) ! Q ! § xi P ( xi ) The E(X) is a measure of Central Tendency. If there are n distinct values of X.

25 0.00 8 .20 What is the average or expected number of service calls? 5 0.10 Total 1.10 0.30 0.05 0.Discrete Distributions Example: Service Calls The probability distribution of emergency service calls on Sunday by Ace Appliance Repair is: x 0 1 2 3 4 P(x) 0.

00 .50 2.30 0.75 0.00 0.10 0.25 0.20 xP(x) 0.60 0.05 0.Discrete Distributions Example: Service Calls First calculate xiP(xi): x 0 1 2 3 4 P(x) 0.10 0.75 9 The sum of the xP(x) xP( column is the expected value or mean of the discrete distribution. 5 E ( X ) ! Q ! § xi P( xi ) i !1 5 0.80 0.10 Total 1.

10 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Number of Service Calls = 2. However.75.20 0. or fulcrum.30 0.05 0. Because E(X) is an average. the mean is still the balancing point.75 This particular probability distribution is not symmetric around the mean = 2. it does not have to be an observable point.15 0. 10 .Discrete Distributions Example: Service Calls 0.25 Probability 0.

0.99941. what is the probability that a 30-year30-yearold white female will die within the next year? Based on mortality statistics.00059 and the probability of living another year is 1 .Discrete Distributions Application: Life Insurance Expected value is the basis of life insurance.000 1-year term 1policy? 11 . For example. the probability is 0. What premium should a life insurance company charge to break even on a $500.00059 = 0.

Discrete Distributions Application: Life Insurance Let X be the amount paid by the company to settle the policy.00 The total expected payout is Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Vital Statistics Reports.99941 0. the premium should be $295 plus whatever return the company needs to cover administrative overhead and profit.00059 1.00 295. 47.00 295. So. 12 .000 P(x) 0. Event Live Die Total x 0 500.00000 xP(x) 0. 28 (1999). no.

If it costs $2 to buy a ticket in a raffle to win a new car worth $55. what is the chance you will 1 win = 29.345 lose = 29.Discrete Distributions Application: Raffle Tickets Expected value can be applied to raffles and lotteries.346 raffle tickets are sold. what is the expected value of a raffle ticket? If you buy 1 ticket.000 and 29.346 13 .346 29.

000034076) + (0)(.000)(.87 The raffle ticket is actually worth $1.00 for it? 14 .Discrete Distributions Application: Raffle Tickets Now.346 + (0) 29.345 29. Is it worth spending $2.999965924) = $1.346 = (55.000) 1 29. calculate the E(X): E(X) = (value if you win)vP(win) + (value if you lose)vP(lose) = (55.87.

W ! W ! V (X ) 15 2 .Discrete Distributions Variance and Standard Deviation If there are n distinct values of X. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance and is denoted . then the variance of a discrete random variable is: n V ( X ) ! W2 ! § [ xi Q]2 P( xi ) i !1 The variance is a weighted average of the dispersion about the mean and is denoted either as 2 or V(X).

Discrete Distributions Example: Bed and Breakfast The Bay Street Inn is a 7room bed-and-breakfast in Santa Theresa.10 0. The probability distribution of room rentals during February is: x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total P(x) 0.13 0.20 0. Ca.00 16 .15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.26 1.

05 0.26 1.52 1.13 0.00 0.15 0.71 17 E ( X ) ! Q ! § xi P ( xi ) i !1 = 4.82 Q = 4.12 0.20 0.30 0.05 0.71 rooms .00 0.05 0.90 1.00 x P(x) 0.06 0.Discrete Distributions Example: Bed and Breakfast First find the expected value 7 x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total P(x) 0.10 0.

2441 2 [x ]2 P(x) 1.05 0.225900 18 .1841 13.00 x P(x) 0.0577 rooms x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total 7 i !1 V ( X ) ! W2 ! § [ xi Q]2 P( xi ) P(x) 0.00 0.26 1.9241 0.13 0.71 [x ]2 22.6641 5.688205 0.10 0.3441 2.52 1.5041 0.292410 0.Discrete Distributions Example: Bed and Breakfast The E(X) is then used to find the variance: = 4.12 0.05 0.065533 0.05 0.0841 1.90 1.20 0.2259 rooms2 The standard deviation is: = 4.82 m = 4.109205 0.363466 = 4.00 0.249615 1.016820 0.440646 0.30 0.2259 = 2.7641 7.15 0.06 0.

19 .05 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of Rooms Rented W = 2.20 0.71 room rentals.25 The mode is 7 rooms rented but the average is only 4.10 0.Discrete Distributions Example: Bed and Breakfast The histogram shows that the distribution is skewed to the left and bimodal.30 0. Probability 0.15 0.06 indicates considerable variation around Q. 0.

adding from the smallest to the largest X-value. A cumulative distribution function (CDF) is a mathematical function that shows the cumulative sum of probabilities. gradually approaching unity. 20 .Discrete Distributions What is a PDF or CDF? A probability distribution function (PDF) is a mathematical function that shows the probability of each X-value.

50 0.30 0.90 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Value of X Probability 1.10 0.70 0.40 0.80 0. 21 .20 Probability 0.15 0.Discrete Distributions What is a PDF or CDF? Consider the following illustrative histograms: 0.05 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Value of X Illustrative PDF (Probability Density Function) Cumulative CDF (Cumulative Density Function) The equations for these functions depend on the parameter(s) of the distribution.25 0.60 0.

Consider the following summary of the uniform distribution: 22 . Each value of the random variable is equally likely to occur.Uniform Distribution Characteristics of the Uniform Distribution The uniform distribution describes a random variable with a finite number of integer values from a to b (the only two parameters).

Uniform Distribution Parameters PDF Range Mean Std. a = lower limit b = upper limit 1 P( x) ! b a 1 aexeb ab 2 ?(b a) 1A2 1 12 Random data =a+INT((b-a+1)*RAND()) generation in Excel Comments Used as a benchmark. Dev. to generate random integers. or to create other distributions. 23 .

00 1 2 3 4 5 6 Number of Dots Show ing on the Die PDF for one die CDF for one die 24 .10 0.12 0.30 0. 4. 5.Uniform Distribution Example: Rolling a Die The number of dots on the roll of a die form a uniform random variable with six equally likely integer values: 1.00 0.60 0.90 0.18 0.04 0.08 0.40 0. 2.50 0.70 0.16 0.00 Number of Dots Show ing on the Die 1. 3.20 0.10 0.14 Pro bability Prob ability 1 2 3 4 5 6 0.06 0. 6 What is the probability of rolling any of these? 0.80 0.02 0.

5 2 2 Calculate the standard deviation as: ?(b a) 1A 12 2 1 ! ?(6 1) 1A 12 2 1 ! 1.708 25 .Uniform Distribution Example: Rolling a Die The PDF for all x is: Calculate the mean as: 1 1 1 P( x) ! ! ! b a 1 6 11 6 a b 1 6 ! ! 3.

p is the P(success). 26 .5 for convenience. 1 p is the P(failure). Note that P(0) + P(1) = (1 p) + p = 1 and 0 < p < 1. One outcome is arbitrarily labeled a success (denoted X = 1) and the other a failure (denoted X = 0). Success is usually defined as the less likely outcome so that p < .Bernoulli Distribution Bernoulli Experiments A random experiment with only 2 outcomes is a Bernoulli experiment.

50 p = 0.0004 1 = heads 0 = tails 1 = crack found Inspect a jet turbine blade 0 = no crack found 1 = pay by credit card Purchase a tank of gas 0 = do not pay by credit card Do a mammogram test 1 = positive test 0 = negative test 27 .Bernoulli Distribution Bernoulli Experiments Consider the following Bernoulli experiments: Bernoulli Experiment Flip a coin Possible Outcomes Probability of Success p = 0.001 p =0.78 p = 0.

Bernoulli Distribution Bernoulli Experiments The expected value (mean) of a Bernoulli experiment is calculated as: 2 E ( X ) ! § x i P ( xi ) ! (0)(1 T) (1)(T) ! T i !1 The variance of a Bernoulli experiment is calculated as: 2 i !1 V ( X ) ! § ?xi E ( X ) A P( xi ) ! (0 T) 2 (1 T) (1 T) 2 (T) ! T(1 T) The mean and variance are useful in developing the next model. 28 2 .

Each Bernoulli trial is independent so the probability of success p remains constant on each trial. + Xn The probability of a particular number of successes P(X) is determined by parameters n and p. 29 . X = X1 + X2 + . So.. In a binomial experiment.Binomial Distribution Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution The binomial distribution arises when a Bernoulli experiment is repeated n times. we are interested in X = number of successes in n trials..

Binomial Distribution Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution The mean of a binomial distribution is found by adding the means for each of the n Bernoulli independent events: p+p+ + p = np The variance of a binomial distribution is found by adding the variances for each of the n Bernoulli independent events: p(1-p)+ p(1-p) + + p(1-p) = np(1-p) np(1-p) The standard deviation is 30 .

n np nT(1 T) Sum n values of =1+INT(2*RAND()) or use Excel s Tools | Data Analysis Skewed right if p < 0. . Random data generation in Excel Comments n = number of trials p = probability of success n! P( x) ! T x (1 T)n x x !(n x)! =BINOMDIST(k. and symmetric if p = 0. .Binomial Distribution Parameters PDF Excel function Range Mean Std.50. ..50. 2.50. 31 . Dev.p. skewed left if p > 0.0) X = 0.n. 1.

Service times are defined as either late or not late.Binomial Distribution Example: Quick Oil Change Shop It is important to quick oil change shops to ensure that a car s service time is not considered late by the customer.cars are independent of each other . Assumptions: . X is the number of cars that are late out of the total number of cars serviced.probability of a late car is consistent 32 .

10 P(car not late) = 1 .1937 33 .10)10-2 = 0.Binomial Distribution Example: Quick Oil Change Shop What is the probability that exactly 2 of the next n = 10 cars serviced are late (P(X = 2))? P(car is late) = p = 0.1)2(1-0.90 n! x n x P ( x) ! T (1 T) x !( n x)! P(X = 2) = 10! 2!(10-2)! (0.p = 0.

0) where k = the number of successes in n trials n = the number of independent trials p = probability of a success 0 means that we want to calculate P(X = 2) rather than P(X < 2) 34 .Binomial Distribution Example: Quick Oil Change Shop Alternatively. we could find P(X = 2) using the Excel function =BINOMDIST(k.p.n.

regardless of the value of p. and symmetric if p = 0.50. skewed left if p > 0.50 Skewness decreases as n increases.Binomial Distribution Binomial Shape A binomial distribution is skewed right if p < 0.50. consider the following graphs: 35 . To illustrate.

80 Skewed left 5 36 .50 Symmetric = 0.Binomial Distribution Binomial Shape n = 0.20 Skewed right = 0.

50 Symmetric = 0.Binomial Distribution Binomial Shape n = 0.80 Skewed left 10 37 .20 Skewed right = 0.

50 Symmetric = 0.80 Skewed left 20 38 .20 Skewed right = 0.Binomial Distribution Binomial Shape n = 0.

Binomial Distribution 39 .

3. 1. 20% of the emergency room patients at Greenwood General Hospital lack health insurance.80 n = 4 patients The range is X = 0.Binomial Distribution Application: Uninsured Patients On average.20 = 0. 40 . 4 patients. what is the probability that at least 2 will be uninsured? X = number of uninsured patients ( success ) P(uninsured) = p = 20% or 0.20 P(insured) = 1 p = 1 . 2. In a random sample of 4 patients.

Binomial Distribution Application: Uninsured Patients What is the mean and standard deviation of this binomial distribution? Mean = = np = (4)(.20(1-0.20) = 0.8 patients nT(1 T) Standard deviation = = = 4(0.20) = 0.8 patients 41 .

0256 0.20 x 0 1 2 3 4 0.0016 PDF = P(X=0) = P(X=1) = P(X=2) = P(X=3) = P(X=4) CDF 0.4096 0.cumulative) where cumulative = 0 for a PDF or = 1 for a CDF 42 .4096 0.n.9728 = P(X<2)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2) 0.8192 = P(X<1)=P(0)+P(1) 0.9984 = P(X<3)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3) 1.0000 = P(X<4)=P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4) These probabilities can be calculated using a calculator or Excel s function =BINOMDIST(x.4096 = P(X<0)=P(0) 0. p = 0.Binomial Distribution Here is the binomial distribution for n = 4.p.1536 0.

80 0.82 0.23 v .2)3 (1 .4.2 2 v .4.4.20 v .83 0.2..2) 4 4 ! 1v ..0) = BINOMDIST(3.24 v .21 v .2) 4 3 ! 4 v .2) 4 2 ! 4 v .0) = BINOMDIST(4.84 0.2)4 0 ! 1v .0) = BINOMDIST(1.Binomial Distribution Application: Uninsured Patients PDF formula calculations P (0) ! PDF Excel formula = BINOMDIST(0.2) 2 (1 .2)0 (1 .0) 43 4! (..2.0) = BINOMDIST(2.4096 1!(4 1)! 4! (.2)1 (1 .0016 4!(4 4)! P(4) ! .4096 0!(4 0)! P(1) ! P(2) ! 4! (.2) 4 (1 ..1536 2!(4 2)! P(3) ! 4! (.4..2.0256 3!(4 3)! 4! (.2.2.4.2) 41 ! 4 v .81 0.

3840 0.0081 0.2160 0.85 0.40 0.0294 0.0900 0.0270 0.10 0.0756 0.0001 0.0640 0.4900 0.0486 0.3750 0.0036 0.3251 0.3750 0.0010 0.0392 0.95 0.0036 0.0081 0.0225 0.2500 0.0270 0.1296 0.6141 0.3456 0.9025 0.0135 0.4320 0.2550 0.0960 0.4320 0.0574 0.9604 0.2500 0.0001 0.0756 0.50 0.9801 0.6400 0.0388 0.0900 0.2646 0.5220 0.0071 0.0256 ---0.0256 0.4116 0.8145 0.1250 0.0080 0.3456 0.9703 0.3200 0.9224 0.0006 0.0016 0.4116 0.2550 0.6561 0.1890 0.0270 0.0012 0.9606 3 4 0.0006 0.0115 0.8100 0.0001 0.8100 0.6141 0.5000 0.4800 0.7290 0.0576 0.05 0.0400 0.3430 0.1354 0.3600 0.2430 0.0388 0. T n 2 X 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 4 0.1536 0.0005 0.0625 0.4800 0.0256 0.1536 --0.0960 0.0016 44 .2500 0.9412 0.4096 0.0753 0.0010 0.98 0.0025 0.0135 0.0625 0.1296 0.7290 0.1536 0.0003 0.2401 0.6561 0.0023 0.0071 0.3685 0.1800 0.4200 0.60 0.3430 0.5120 0.3200 0.15 0.2430 0.80 0.2916 0.0025 0.Binomial Distribution Application: Uninsured Patients Binomial probabilities can also be determined by looking them up in a table (Appendix A) for selected values of n (row) and p (column).01 0.0392 0.4096 0.0270 0.0753 0.0198 0.9606 0.3251 0.0003 0.0034 0.1250 0.2401 0.0005 --0.5120 0.7225 0.1354 0.9604 0.0950 0.0400 0.0950 0.0975 0.1600 0.0975 0.0115 0.1800 0.0294 0.0256 0.9025 0.2880 0.0225 0.1536 0.1715 0.0005 0.20 0.9801 0.4096 0.1890 0.0640 0.8145 0.99 0.0198 0.0100 0.3840 0.70 0.4900 0.8574 0.5220 0.30 0.1600 0.0001 0.4410 0.0004 0.8574 0.4410 0.0080 0.2646 0.4200 0.0576 0.3456 0.2880 0.90 0.2500 0.6400 0.0001 --0.0034 0.0005 0.9224 0.0486 0.3456 0.4096 0.2160 0.2916 0.3600 0.0574 --0.3750 0.7225 0.0023 0.02 0.9703 ---0.0001 0.0004 0.9412 0.0100 0.1715 0.0012 0.3685 0.

0016 = 0. For example.0256 + 0. the probability that the sample of 4 patients will contain at least 2 uninsured patients is HINT: What inequality means at least? P(X u 2) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 0.1808 45 .1536 + 0.Binomial Distribution Compound Events Individual probabilities can be added to obtain any desired event probability.

8192 What is the probability that no more than 2 patients have insurance? HINT: What inequality means ³no more than?´ P(X < 2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.4096 + 0.4096 + 0.1536 = 0.Binomial Distribution Compound Events What is the probability that fewer than 2 patients have insurance? HINT: What inequality means ³fewer than?´ P(X < 2) = P(0) + P(1) = 0.4096 + 0.9728 46 .4096 = 0.

Or use =BINOMDIST(67.1024.048.024 trials with probability p = 0.048.Binomial Distribution Using Software: Excel Use Excel s Insert | Function menu to calculate the probability of x = 67 successes in n = 1.0) 47 .0.

n= 10.. 48 .50) in MegaStat.Binomial Distribution Using Software: MegaStat Compute an entire binomial PDF for any n and p (e.g. p = .

20508 0.00977 0.37695 0.30 X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p(X) 0.04395 0.00098 0.000 expected value 2.01074 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 X 6 7 8 9 10 Binomial distribution (n = 10.00000 cumulative probability 0.62305 0.00000 0.20 p(X) 0.Binomial Distribution Using Software: MegaStat MegaStat also gives you the option to create a graph of the PDF: Binomial distribution 10 n 0.00098 1.94531 0. p = 0.500 variance 1.00098 0.99902 1.10 0.15 0.11719 0.04395 0.98926 0.00977 0.581 standard deviation 49 .82813 0.05 0.5) 5.25 0.11719 0.20508 0.24609 0.5 p 0.17188 0.05469 0.

In a sample of 20 friends: How many are left-handed? How many have ever worked on a factory floor? How many own a motorcycle? 50 .Binomial Distribution Recognizing Binomial Applications Can you recognize a binomial situation? Look for n independent Bernoulli trials with constant probability of success.

Binomial Distribution Recognizing Binomial Applications Can you recognize a binomial situation? In a sample of 50 cars in a parking lot: How many are parked end-first? How many are blue? How many have hybrid engines? In a sample of 10 emergency patients with chest pain: How many will be admitted? How many will need bypass surgery? How many will be uninsured? 51 .

Poisson Distribution

Poisson Processes

The Poisson distribution was named for French mathematician Siméon Poisson (17811840).

The Poisson distribution describes the number of occurrences within a randomly chosen unit of time or space.

** For example, within a minute, hour, day, square foot, or linear mile.
**

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Poisson Distribution

Called the model of arrivals, most Poisson applications model arrivals per unit of time. The events occur randomly and independently over a continuum of time or space: One Unit One Unit One Unit of Time |n---p|

of Time of Time |n---p| |n---p| Flow of Time p

**Each dot ( ) is an occurrence of the event of interest.
**

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Poisson Distribution

Let X = the number of events per unit of time. X is a random variable that depends on when the unit of time is observed. For example, we could get X = 3 or X = 1 or X = 5 events, depending on where the randomly chosen unit of time happens to fall.

One Unit of Time One Unit of Time One Unit of Time

|n---p| |n---p|

|n---p|

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Flow of Time p

Poisson Distribution

Arrivals (e.g., customers, defects, accidents) must be independent of each other. Some examples of Poisson models in which assumptions are sufficiently met are: X = number of customers arriving at a bank ATM in a given minute. X = number of file server virus infections at a data center during a 24-hour period. X = number of blemishes per sheet of white bond paper.

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Poisson Distribution Poisson Processes The Poisson model s only parameter is l (Greek letter lambda ). To make l smaller. l represents the mean number of events per unit of time or space. 56 .. convert hours to minutes). convert to a smaller time unit (e.g. The unit of time should be short enough that the mean arrival rate is not large (l < 20).

Poisson Distribution Poisson Processes The Poisson distribution is sometimes called the model of rare events. The number of events that can occur in a given unit of time is not bounded. therefore X has no obvious limit. However. 57 . Poisson probabilities taper off toward zero as X increases.

58 . Dev.. but less so for larger P.Poisson Distribution Poisson Processes Parameters PDF Range Mean St. P = mean arrivals per unit of time or space P x eP P ( x) ! x! X = 0. .. 1. (no obvious upper limit) P P Use Excel¶s Tools | Data Analysis | Random Random data Number Generation Comments Always right-skewed. 2.

Poisson Distribution Poisson Processes Poisson distributions are always right-skewed but become less skewed and more bell-shaped as increases. 59 .

Standard deviation = ¥ = 1.7 P( x) ! ! x! x! Mean = = 1.M.Poisson Distribution Example: Credit Union Customers On Thursday morning between 9 A. mean and standard deviation: PDF = P x eP (1.7 customers per minute.7) x e1.304 cust/min 60 . and 10 A.7 customers per minute. Find the PDF.M. customers arrive and enter the queue at the Oxnard University Credit Union at a mean rate of 1.

4932 0.2640 0.0636 0.9999 1.9704 0.0000 61 Here is the Poisson probability distribution for P = 1.7 customers per minute on average.0015 0. .1827 0.3106 0.0001 CDF P(X e x) 0.9068 0.1496 0. Note that x represents the number of customers.0003 0.0061 0.9981 0.9920 0.7572 0.9996 0.Poisson Distribution Example: Credit Union Customers x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 PDF P(X = x) 0.0216 0. For example. P(X=4) is the probability that there are exactly 4 customers in the bank.1827 0.

Poisson Distribution Using the Poisson Formula Formula 1.70 e 1.7.7 P (2) ! ! .7 4 e1.0) =POISSON(2.73 e1.71 e1.7.1496 3! 1.7.0) =POISSON(1.3106 1! 1.7.1.1.0) =POISSON(3.7 2 e1.7 P (0) ! ! .1.2640 2! 1.0) =POISSON(4.0636 4! .7 P (4) ! ! .7 P(3) ! ! .7.1.1.0) 62 1.7 P(1) ! ! .1827 0! Excel function =POISSON(0.

1.78 e1.0015 7! Excel function: =POISSON(5.7 P(9) ! ! .7 P(8) ! ! .7.1.7 P(6) ! ! .Poisson Distribution Using the Poisson Formula Formula: Beyond X = 9.7.0001 9! .76 e1.7 P (7) ! ! . the probabilities are below 0.7.7 P(5) ! ! .79 e 1.0003 8! 1.1.1.1.7.0) =POISSON(8.77 e 1.0) =POISSON(9.0216 5! 1.0001 1.0061 6! 1.0) =POISSON(6.7.0) 63 1.75 e1.0) =POISSON(7.

35 0.70 0.60 0.90 0.80 0.25 Probability Probability 0. 64 .7 Poisson CDF for = 1.30 0.3106 This will help the credit union schedule tellers.05 0.20 0.15 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Number of Custom er Arrivals Poisson PDF for = 1.20 0.40 0.7 The most likely event is 1 arrival (P(1)=0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Num ber of Custom er Arrivals 1.Poisson Distribution Here are the graphs of the distributions: 0.00 0.

1827 + 0.3106 + 0.7573 65 . What is the probability that two or fewer customers will arrive in a given minute? P(X < 2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.Poisson Distribution Compound Events Cumulative probabilities can be evaluated by summing individual X probabilities.2640 = 0.

0034 0.0015 0.0216 0.9 0.0636 0.2584 0.2640 0.0001 --1.1607 0.0001 --1.0902 0.0005 0.1653 0.7 0.0011 0.2572 0. .0003 0.2842 0.0011 0.0001 -66 Appendix B facilitates Poisson calculations but doesn t go beyond = 20.1496 0.0260 0.0120 0.1353 0.2975 0.0003 0.0027 0.0723 0.1225 0.6 0.3106 0.1890 0.8 0.0009 0.0992 0.0551 0.0098 0.1827 0.0417 0.0146 0.2707 0.0061 0.2019 0.1 0.3230 0.0020 0.Poisson Distribution Poisson Probabilities: Tables (Appendix B) P X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1.1496 0.0812 0.0047 0.0006 0.2700 0.0044 0.1710 0.0176 0.2678 0.0 0.1378 0.0078 0.0001 --2.1804 0.0002 ---1.2700 0.0002 --2.0361 0.2707 0.0309 0.

Poisson Distribution Recognizing Poisson Applications Can you recognize a Poisson situation? Look for arrivals of rare independent events with no obvious upper limit. how many cheques did you write? In the last week. In the last week. how many credit card applications did you receive by mail? In the last week. how many e-mail viruses did your firewall detect? 67 .

What is p? p = 6/10.Poisson Distribution Poisson Approximation to Binomial The Poisson distribution may be used to approximate a binomial by setting = np. suppose n = 1.000 and p=0.000.0006. This approximation is helpful when n is large. 68 .0006 This is a binomial distribution with n = 1. This cancer has a nationwide incidence of 6 cases per 10. For example.000 women are screened for a rare type of cancer.000 = 0.

Poisson Distribution Poisson Approximation to Binomial Since the binomial formula involves factorials (which are cumbersome as n increases). For example: P(X < 2) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) = 0.9769 69 .0006) = 0.5488 + 0. use the Poisson distribution as an approximation: Set = np = (1000)(0.6 Now use Appendix B or the Poisson PDF to calculate the probability of x successes.0988 = 0.3293 + 0.

The hypergeometric distribution may be skewed right or left and is symmetric only if the proportion of successes in the population is 50%. sampling is without replacement from a finite population of N items. However. unlike the binomial. 70 .Hypergeometric Distribution Characteristics of the Hypergeometric Distribution The hypergeometric distribution is similar to the binomial distribution.

Hypergeometric Distribution Parameters N = number of items in the population n = sample size s = number of successes in population PDF Range Mean St. less than 5% sample).e. where p = s/N N n nT(1 T) N 1 Similar to binomial. Can be approximated by binomial with p = s/N if n/N < 0. 71 . n-N+s) e x e min(s.. Dev. n) Np. but sampling is without replacement from a finite population. Comments P( x) ! s Cx N s N Cn x Cn X = max(0.05 (i.

Hypergeometric Distribution Characteristics of the Hypergeometric Dist. The hypergeometric PDF uses the formula for combinations: the number of ways to choose x successes from s successes = in the population x s C P( x) ! s Cx N s N Cn x where N s Cn C the number of ways to choose n±x failures from = N-s failures in the population n x the number of ways to choose = n items from N items in the population n 72 N C .

2 were damaged and 8 are good.Hypergeometric Distribution Example: Damaged iPods In a shipment of 10 iPods. The receiving department at Best Buy tests a sample of 3 iPods at random to see if they are defective. 73 . Let the random variable X be the number of damaged iPods in the sample.

Hypergeometric Distribution Example: Damaged iPods Now describe the problem: = 10 (number of iPods in the shipment) = 3 (sample size drawn from the shipment) = 2 (number of damaged iPods in the shipment ( successes in population)) N s = 8 (number of non-damaged iPods in the shipment) x = number of damaged iPods in the sample ( successes in sample) n x = number of non-damaged iPods in the sample N n s 74 .

what is the probability of getting a damaged iPod on the second draw? p2 = 1/9 (if the first iPod was damaged) or = 2/9 (if the first iPod was undamaged) 75 . What is the probability of getting a damaged iPod on the first draw from the sample? p1 = 2/10 Now.Hypergeometric Distribution Example: Damaged iPods This is not a binomial problem because p is not constant.

Hypergeometric Distribution Example: Damaged iPods What about on the third draw? p3 = 0/8 or = 1/8 or = 2/8 depending on what happened in the first two draws. 76 .

10) = .3. and 2.Hypergeometric Distribution Using the Hypergeometric Formula Since there are only 2 damaged iPods in the population. the only possible values of x are 0.3.2.4667 =HYPGEOMDIST(1.3.10) 77 .2.10) = .0667 =HYPGEOMDIST(2.2.4667 Excel Function =HYPGEOMDIST(0. Here are the probabilities: PDF Formula = . 1.

use Excel s hypergeometric function to find probabilities. 78 .Hypergeometric Distribution Using Software: Excel Since the hypergeometric formula and tables are tedious and impractical.

Hypergeometric Distribution Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric Both the binomial and hypergeometric involve samples of size n and treat X as the number of successes. Rule of Thumb If n/N < 0.05 it is safe to use the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric. 79 . using sample size n and success probability p = s/N. The binomial samples with replacement while the hypergeometric samples without replacement.

s = 200. n/N = 10/400 = 0.2051 80 .Hypergeometric Distribution Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric For example.05 so the binomial approximation is acceptable. Set p = s/N = 200/400 = 0.50 and use Appendix A to obtain the probability. n = 10. P(X=6) = 0. suppose we want P(X=6) for a hypergeometric with N = 400.025 < 0.

- Performance Evaluation of Digital Image Encryption Using Discrete Random Distributions and MOD Operatorby International Organization of Scientific Research (IOSR)

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