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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line On Close

Not really sure of what to make of this chart, but I thought it was interesting to see how the market has bounced around some important Fibbonacci retracements off the March 2009 lows. The 78.62% retracement is a ³big deal´ according to some technicians--a break of that level usually means a full 100% retrace (1500¶s on the S&P).

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close
For the last five months we¶ve been talking about major resistance at 1347 and how it was an important top. And now, here we are with the S&P 500 vigorously testing this area. One of the reasons why this level is important is because of the proposed e-wave down that finished the last x-wave. The start point of powerful e-waves in an expanding triangle ³should´ not be easily bested by the next wave. Though, confidence in this wave count is waning «

-B³b´ ³y´
2 b d a b 1 a c c

Important Top

³a´

³z´

³w´
d b e

³x´
a c e

³x´

4 3

(C)

5

³c´ (A)
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close
This is NOT my wave count or idea. This is a count that it is being promoted by Glenn Neely of NeoWave. I can¶t find too much wrong with it, so it must be considered. He suggests a large contracting triangle from the March 2009 low. Because of the shape of the pattern and the ³smallness´ of the ³b´ wave, it¶s possible to get a marginally higher high before the (B) wave ultimately completes. It would be a triangle with a strong upward sloping bias. I suppose this count, along with a marginally higher high, would inflict the most amount of pain on the greatest number of people. The bulls would obviously be ³besides themselves´ if we were to set a fresh Bhigh in 2012 and the bears would surely ³throw in the towel.´

-

(B) ³c´
b

³e´

³a´

c a

³d´

³b´

(C)

(A)

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Line on Close
This count is yet another possibility if we take out the highs. This idea was discussed a few months ago and it must be considered. We could be in the middle of large scale diametric. It certainly ³fits´ the mold of a diametric in the sense that all the legs have been ³corrective´ and have taken ³similar´ amounts of time, a key element of a diametric. If this particular shape develops, it will confirm Neely¶s belief that there are ³new´ wave forms that exist as this particular outcome would fit no known orthodox Elliott Wave pattern.

-B(B) ³b´ ³c´
2 b d a b 1 a c c

³e´

³g´

³a´

³a´
d b e

³f´ ³d´

a c

e

³b´

4 3

(C)

5

³c´ (A)
Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 120 min. with Weekly Support
I¶m not going to even try a shorter term count because this has become a ridiculously confusing pattern. The market is into key resistance right now as it approaches the ³double top´ zone from last year (1347-1371). I would be surprised if the S&P 500 takes out that zone prior to a good retracement of some kind. The trend channel up is extremely well defined with plenty of ³touch points.´ This is a ³corrective´ leg higher, so trading bulls need to be very ³quick´ to exit long positions when support breaks. Longs should consider 1,317 and 1,295 for first and second points of support in the week ahead. Though, if that lower trend channel breaks, this market will likely coast lower. That level looks like 1330 for Monday.

Andy¶s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1³ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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