DEVELOPMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVOIRS IN PAKISTAN By Dr. M.

Saeed Khan Jadoon OGDCL, Islamabad APRIL 11, 2011 SERENA HOTEL ISLAMABAD

PROVOKING THOUGHTS  With the nuclear industry in crisis and oil prices on the rise, could the solution to our energy problems be in the ground at home? Daniel yergin on the promise of shale gas.  He ," states that the turmoil in the middle east is a "sea change" for the global oil market and that the U.S.A and emerging markets are most economically vulnerable to rising oil prices.

Outline of Presentation
         Objectives Energy out Look Existing Indigenous Resource International Scenario Conventional & Unconventional Reservoirs Potential of Unconventional Resource Development Model Economic Consideration Summary

OBJECTIVES

HOW TO MEET ENERGY REQUIREMENT OF THE COUNTRY

UNCONVENTIONAL ENERGY RESOURCE AVAILABILITY

DEVELOPMENT PHIL0SPHY

Pakistan Energy Out Look

Pakistan Gas Out Look

Energy Resources Available To Us

 Indigenous Resources of Oil & Gas  Hydroelectric  Nuclear

 Solar & Wind Energy

Primary Energy Supplies By Source

Hydro Electricity, 10.6% Coal, 7.6% LPG, 0.6%

Nuclear Electricity, 0.6%

Imported Electricity, 0.1%

Oil, 32.1%

Gas, 48.3%

Pakistan Indigenous Natural Reserves

Conventional Gas- 30 TCF Tight Gas- 40 TCF Coal -185 Billion Tons

Oil 436, Million bbls

Sectoral Energy Consumption By Source

INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO FOR UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVOIR

World Un-Conventional Gas Resource

WORLD UN-CONVENTIONAL GAS

40-50 TCF Pakistan

European Unconventional Reservoir

India Shale Gas & CBM Projects
  Started work on CBM 1993 Group of experts was formulated to collect and analyze data. 32 BLOCKS Have been given to different companies Now India started Production from CBM Next Few Years, Production will be 38 CM^3/day ONGC had Recent Discovery of Shale Gas in West Bengal

   

Shale Gas Contribution in USA, 18 % of the Total Production

Advance Resources International USA Gas Projected values from different Sources, 2009

INDIGNEOUS HYDROCARBON RESOURCES

Indigenous Oil & Gas Reservoirs
Conventional Reservoirs
  Sandstone and carbonate Reservoirs. With good reservoir properties have good capability of storage and Productivity Reasonable Efforts for Exploration
     Explored area is about 275,000 Sq km 550,000 Sq km is unexplored Current Production Oil: 60000-66000 bbl Gas: 4.15 BCF

Unconventional Reservoirs
 Poor reservoir properties have capability of storage but poor Productivity


 

Tight Gas Reservoir
Shale Gas Reservoir Coal Bed Methane

NOT DEVELOPED YET

Unconventional Reservoir Descriptions
Tight Gas Reservoir
   Mostly Sandstone Reservoir Good storage Capability but poor Producibility. Distributed over Large Area of Pakistan Shale Gas reservoir   Exist in Shale Source and Reservoir


 

Good storage Capability but poor Producibility
Distributed over Large Area of Pakistan Advance Technology need to Produce

Advance Technology Need to Produce

Unconventional Reservoirs
 COAL BED METHAN (CBM)  Gas is generated during Coalification Process  Gas Adsorbed on the Coal Very poor conductivity Distributed over Sindh & Punjab Province

Word 10 % Coal Deposits are in Sindh
Total Deposits are 185 billion tone. Not developed Yet

 

No Conclusive Work

Known Tight Gas Reservoirs

Shale Sequence in Pakistan
 Ghazij Shale
 Vastly Distributed-

Thickness (meters)
100 -1200

 Thalar Shale
 Vastly Distributed – 45 – 184

 Samber Shale
 Vastly Distributed – 500- 600

 Chichali Shale
 Vastly Distributed – 35 – 130

Ghazij Shale Distribution
3440000

90 0

1050

5 97

11 25

3420000

112

5

105 0
105

975

900

Dhodak
3400000 3380000

975

0
1050
1125

975
3360000

1050

1125

1050
3340000

1125

1200

1125

50 10

1125

3320000

975

120 0

120 0
1275

3300000

900

1200

12 00

5 97

50 10
25 11

3280000

1275

75 12

825
750 675

900
825
750
675

00 12

3260000

975
900
825
750
675

105 0

1125

25 11
1275

97 5

00 12
5 112
0 105
975
900

3240000

600

12 00
1125

0 105

0 90 825 750 675

3220000

525

600

Pirkoh
9 Loti 75
900
825 750 675
600

450

600

3200000

600

375

525

Zin

1050

975

825

900 825
750 675

750
3180000

30 0

45 0

675
600
525
3140000 3160000

22 5

37 5
30 0
22 5
150
0
75

Uch
525

600
525 450
375

5 52

75 Jhal_Magsi

GHAZIJ SHALE ISOCHORE M AP
Paki s tan G haz i j Shal e Sc al e 0

0 15

450
375
300

450

450

375
300

300

375

3120000

22 5

30 0
3100000

225

Qadirpur
225

150
75

Badar
150

225

300

3080000

225

150
75
5000 10000 15000 1:420000 20000 25000 30000m

0

Sara_West 150
Thickness
1275 1200 1125 1050 975 900 825 750 675 600 525 450 375 300 225 150 75 0

3060000

75

75
540000 560000 580000 600000 620000 640000

3040000

1:420000
Contour i nc

75

0
340000 360000 380000 400000 420000 440000 460000 480000

500000

520000

660000

Talhar Shale

Chichali Area

Ghazij Area

Talhar Area

Coal Fields in Pakistan

Gas Potential in these Reservoirs

Source: Weatherford 2010

Unconventional Gas Resource
    Tight Gas Ghazig Shale Gas Talhar Shale Gas Coal Bed Methane (Recoverable- Cathy Oil Canada) 40-50 TCF 20-30 TCF 100 TCF 21 TCF

Samber Shale (Moin PPL)
TOTAL

60-80 TCF 241-281

Development Challenges
      Evaluation Uncertainties High Investment Longer Production Time Longer Payout Time High Density of wells Skilled Manpower Resolvable Success


 

Environmental Issue
Political Stability Will to Accept Challenges

Availability of Technology In World

   

Vertical & Horizontal well Multilateral Wells Hydraulic Fracturing Stimulation Techniques

Multilateral Wells

DEVELOPMENT PHILOSPHY

Development Model-Integrated Approach

GOVT

Exploration Companies

Distribution Companies

Manufacturing Industries

Power Producer

Exploration & Production Companies

 

Should Invest to Explore Tight and Shale gas Exploration area for Tight and Shale Gas should be awarded to the companies Price Incentives have been given Freedom of Marketing of Gas to the Consumer

 

Manufacturing & Power Industries
  Should have direct access to Energy Producer Should have option of buying gas from Producer & paying Tariff to the distribution company for using the network if required


 

Reference Price should be according to the concession area
Distribution Companies should effectively assist for supply of gas to Industries Consortium of Industry units to share the cost of energy.

Cost Effective Buisness Model
 Exploration Companies- Consortium
 Work Program for next 3-4 years • Drilling of Vertical, horizontal & Multilateral • Hydraulic Fracturing/Stimulation jobs

 Service Providers-Consortium
• • • Bring Relevant Technology Efficient Execution of jobs Cost effective Solution

Human Resource Development---Serious Consideration

Continue---   Need consortium of industry units for sharing of their cost of energy No Misuse of Freedom No Monopolization of any company weather it is service or distribution companies.

ECONOMIC EVALUATION

Production Challenge

Reference: Weatherford 2010

Probable Production Behavior

Brown Field with 8 year development

80

60

Gas MMSCFD

40

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Years of production

Economic Model for Tight & Shale Gas (Brown Field )

             

GIIP: Recoverable Reserves: Number of wells: Failure: Gas Flow Rate: Development Time: Well Capex $: Facilities: Opex: Field Life: GAS Price: IROR: Pay back: Royalty &Tax Included

1 TCF 240 BCF 25 10% 5MMSCFD 2 year 478 Million 50 Million 147 Million 25 year $ 4.90/MMBTU 15 % 8.5 year

Economic Model for Tight & Shale Gas (Green Field )
             GIIP: Recoverable Reserves: Number of wells: Failure: Gas Flow Rate: Development Time: Well Capex $: Facilities: Opex: Field Life: GAS Price: IROR: Pay back: 1 TCF 240 BCF 25 10 % 5MMSCFD 5 year 478 Million 124 Million 147 Million 25 year $ 6.21/MMBTU 15 % 6.5 years

SUMMARY
 Enough unconventional Reservoir exist in the country  Unconventional Reservoirs are required to be evaluated by collection of more data by initiating Pilot Projects in Shale Gas as earliest as possible.  Exploration blocks may be awarded for unconventional reservoirs.  Economically, Projects in Shale & Tight Gas looks viable.

Continue--- Human Resource Development to cater the demand of oil companies operating in Pkistan
 Introduction of consortium concept of E & P companies for the planning of their work  Consortium of Service companies for cost effective solution of development of these Reservoirs.  Integrated Approach of all the stack holder is required to develop these unconventional Reservoirs

THANKS

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