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ANALISIS TEKNIKAL HARGA EMAS

Kuala Terengganu 17 Mac 2012

Expert Intro

I tend to use most computer-generated technical indicators as secondary tools when I am analyzing a market or considering a trade. My primary trading tools include chart patterns, fundamental analysis and trend lines.

Patterns chart, candlestick Fundamental ekonomi, permintaan dan penawaran, perang, bencana alam, dsd. Trend lines sejenis tools untuk melukis trend.

Essence of Technical Analysis

ANALISIS TEKNIKAL?
Technical analysis is security analysis discipline for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Source: Wikipedia A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity. Source: Investopedia

Why learn from me?


Saya takde keje lain. Keje saya cuma baca graf. Bahasa omputihnya, chartist. Dekat-dekat dengan artis

And No, it doesn t make me better than others. It s just make me more FOCUS

-Shufaad, 11 Feb 2011

Bagaimana kelas ini boleh memberi manfaat kepada anda?


Dalam jangka masa pendek;
Lihat Table 1

Dalam jangka masa panjang;


Saya berusaha untuk mengajar anda satu ilmu baru yang sangat-sangat berguna; mungkin bukan sekarang, mungkin bukan esok, mungkin juga bukan untuk tahun depan, tetapi mungkin apabila anda sudah bersedia untuk melakukan transformasi di dalam kerjaya dan juga hidup anda.

BULAN Januari Februari Mac April Mei Jun Julai Ogos September Oktober November Disember

OPEN 1418.75 1332.93 1411.28 1432.73 1567.03 1535.20 1500.57 1606.78 1824.40 1619.95 1713.96 1747.93

HIGH 1423.70 1417.99 1447.61 1569.25 1576.48 1558.07 1632.47 1911.89 1920.80 1752.35 1802.54 1762.97

LOW 1308.07 1324.95 1380.71 1412.52 1462.35 1490.65 1478.04 1606.78 1532.64 1595.65 1666.66 1522.55

CLOSE 1332.65 1410.73 1431.90 1562.90 1535.50 1499.61 1626.65 1825.75 1623.43 1714.55 1745.90 1564.73

+/-86.1 +77.8 +20.62 +130.17 -31.53 -35.59 +126.08 +218.97 -200.97 +94.6 +31.94 -182.2

Objektif
Mengetahui bilakah masa yang sesuai untuk membeli, memborong atau pun menjual emas anda. Mengira potensi keuntungan yang boleh anda dapat melalui pelaburan emas Public Gold dan juga pelaburan emas yang lain.

Skil Tambahan
Menukarkan harga emas dunia di dalam USD kepada RM.
Formula: Harga emas (USD/oz) / 31.1 = USD/gram Harga (USD/gram) x currency exchange rate = RM/gram

Isi Kandungan
Memperkenalkan, MetaTrader 4 The Goldbug Psychology

Memperkenalkan, MetaTrader 4

MetaTrader is an electronic trading software created by MetaQuotes Corp. for online Forex, CFD and futures trading. - source: http://www.forexnewbies.com/what-is-metatrader/ MetaTrader 4, better known as MT4, is an electronic trading platform widely used by online retail foreign exchange speculative traders. - source: Wikipedia

Praktikal
1. Mencipta akaun demo 2. Bereksperimen dengan tools, menu dan ikon di dalam MT4 3. Applying template dan indikator

The Goldbug Psychology

Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ .Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing -Warren Buffett-

Who s Moving the price?


Central bank Governments Hedging fund Producers Traders and investors

Gold trading
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Gold Bullion Exchange Traded Funds Exchange Traded Notes Miners Spot, Futures and Options

Sentiment trading
Asia VS rest of the world Tradition vs Hedging

Market Psychology
Fear follow the herd Greed Risk on Risk off
Knowing others is intelligence,; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength, mastering yourself is true power -Lau Tzu-

Case studies
1. The Great Depression,1929 1933 2. George Soros, The Man Who Broke the Bank of England 3. Warren Buffett blunders

Gold Trading Session


Sun rise with Aussie Bargain hunters with Shanghai Consumer power at New Delhi Smelling fear at Euro Profit takers at NY Outside factor with Looney

Psychology in Technical Indicators


Support and Resistance
The long, the short and the un-certain Balance of probabilities The importance of psycho level Golden ratio as magic numbers

Candlestick
Irregularities in open and close price Aggressive buyers and sellers Agree/Indecision

Support and Resistance

Trading range

Support
IS

BUYER S Camp

Resistance
IS

SELLER S Camp

Bagaimana anda mahu melukis garisan support dan resistance?

3 General rules: 1. Highest high, lowest low 2. Pullback 3. Long black/white candle

Tips: Kena guna banyak garisan horizontal dan kena banyak gunakan tools zoom in dan zoom out.

Price Action

1. Pentingnya PSYCHO LEVEL di dalam pergerakan harga emas. 2. HISTORICAL PRICE ialah rekod harga yang pernah di jejaki oleh emas. 3. Pembundaran harga kepada suatu yang lebih mudah menggunakan ROUND NUMBER.

Balance of Probabilities
Berapa kerap harga emas menghampiri garisan tersebut dan melantun kembali, sama ada ke bawah (untuk garisan resistance) dan ke atas (untuk garisan support)?. Lagi kerap, lagi bagus. Berapa lama harga tersebut berada di dalam trading range (di antara garisan support dan resistance) tersebut? Lagi lama, lagi bagus. Bilakah kali terakhir garisan-garisan tersebut di lawati? Jikalau baru lagi, ada kemungkinan garisan tersebut akan di lawati semula oleh harga emas. Dengan mengenalpasti berapa banyak trading volume apabila garisan tersebut di lawati. (Topik volume agak advanced. Jadi saya tidak akan menghuraikannya di sini. Nanti boleh baca di ebook saya yang lain). Adakah ianya berada berhampiran round number? Atau psycho level? Jika ya, maka ianya adalah garisan support dan resistance yang kuat.

ITS

PRACTICAL
TIME.

Fibonacci

Fibonacci di gunakan sebagai garisan support dan resistance. berdasarkan harga tertinggi dan terendah pasaran di dalam satu jangka masa. Secara teorinya, jika anda membuat garisan fibonacci yang sama dengan traders/investors yang berada di institusi kewangan yang besar, peluang anda untuk menang adalah sangat cerah.

The Golden ratio

1.618 dan 0.618

Fibonacci Retracement
B
0.0% 23.6% 38.2% 50.0% 61.8% 100.0% 100.0% 61.8% 50.0% 38.2% 23.6% 0.0%

Upward

Downward

Its PRACTICAL time.

Introducing Public Gold Profit (Loss) Calculator

Candlestick

Candlestick Anatomy

Mengapa anda perlu mempelajari pattern?


Untuk mengetahui bila harga akan TURUN dan bila ianya akan NAIK semula Dalam erti kata lain Pattern di gunakan sebagai petunjuk sama ada trend kenaikan / penurunan semasa akan berterusan ataupun akan berakhir.

Reversal Pattern Petunjuk kepada turun dan naik harga


Dari Bearish (Menurun) ke Bullish (Menaik) Dari Bullish (Menaik) ke Bearish (Menurun)

Bullish Reversal Pattern

Bullish Engulfing (Three Outside Up)

Piercing Line

Hammer

Inverted Hammer

Morning Star

Bullish Harami (Three Inside Up)

Abandoned Baby (Bullish)

Long Dawn Line

Bearish Reversal Pattern

Bearish Engulfing (Three Outside Down)

Dark Cloud Cover

Hanging Man

Shooting Star

Evening Star

Bearish Harami (Three Inside Down)

Abandoned Baby (Bearish)

Short Dusk Line

Bearish Engulfing

TIME FRAME: DAILY

Shooting Star

Doji

Bullish Harami

Piercing Line

Bearish Engulfing

Bearish Engulfing

Morning Star Hammer TIME FRAME: DAILY

ITS

PRACTICAL
TIME.

More readings
Steve Nison s ebook Melakafx blog; search for Know your candles and The ultimate indicator

Secondary Tools

Trendline & Equidistant Channel Relative Strength Index (RSI)

LET S HEAR THE EXPERTs www.kitco.com

About Me
Name: Noor Shufaad Md Norani Phone No: 016-6447174 Website: melakafx.com, shufaad.com Company: Candlestick Consulting Designation: Chief Everything Officer Twitter: melakafx Facebook: melakafx

HAPPY TRADING & THANK YOU!