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**Evolutionary Game Theory
**

By Jin Xiao, Jeff Thomas, Jeff Westwell

How would game theory view this?

**What will we discuss?
**

• Brief History of Game Theory

• Payoff Matrix • Types of Games • Basic Strategies • Evolutionary Concepts

• Limitations and Problems

**Brief History of Game Theory
**

• 1913 - E. Zermelo provided the first theorem of game theory

asserts that chess is strictly determined

• 1928 - John von Neumann proved the minimax theorem • 1944 - John von Neumann / Oskar Morgenstern’s wrote "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior” • 1950-1953, John Nash describes Nash equilibrium • 1972 - John Maynard Smith wrote

“Game Theory and The Evolution of Fighting”

Rationality Assumptions: • humans are rational beings • humans always seek the best alternative in a set of possible choices Why assume rationality? • narrow down the range of possibilities • predictability .

Utility Theory Utility Theory based on: • rationality • maximization of utility It is a quantification of a person's preferences with respect to certain objects. .

What is Game Theory? Game theory is a study of how to mathematically determine the best strategy for given conditions in order to optimize the outcome .

Game Theory • Finding acceptable. if not optimal. strategies in conflict situations. • Abstraction of real complex situation • Game theory is highly mathematical • Game theory assumes all human interactions can be understood and navigated by presumptions. .

. • AI needs to perform these tasks as a result.Why is game theory important? • All intelligent beings make decisions all the time. • Helps us to analyze situations more rationally and formulate an acceptable alternative with respect to circumstance.

1) Payoff (1.The Payoff Matrix Player #2 Strategy #1 Strategy #2 P l a y e r # 1 Strategy #1 Payoff (1.2) Strategy #2 Payoff (2.1) Payoff (2.2) .

Iterated • Zero vs. non-zero sum • Perfect vs. Imperfect information • Cooperative vs. Simultaneous moves • Single Play vs. conflict .Types of Games • Sequential vs.

Zero-Sum Games • The sum of the payoffs remains constant during the course of the game. • Two sides in conflict • Being well informed always helps a player .

Non-zero Sum Game • The sum of payoffs is not constant during the course of game play. . • Players may co-operate or compete • Being well informed may harm a player.

• All sequential move games are of this type. .Games of Perfect Information • The information concerning an opponent’s move is well known in advance.

• Imperfect information may be diminished over time if the same game with the same opponent is to be repeated. .Imperfect Information • Partial or no information concerning the opponent is given in advance to the player’s decision.

Key Area of Interest • chance • strategy .

Prisoner’s Dilemma .

Prisoner’s Dilemma .

Games of Conflict • Two sides competing against each other • Usually caused by complete lack of information about the opponent or the game • Characteristic of zero-sum games .

Games of Co-operation Players may improve payoff through • communicating • forming binding coalitions & agreements • do not apply to zero-sum games Prisoner’s Dilemma with Cooperation .

Prisoner’s Dilemma with Iteration • Infinite number of iterations – Fear of retaliation • Fixed number of iteration – Domino effect .

Use a dominating strategy if possible 3. Plan ahead and look back 2.Basic Strategies 1. Look for any equilibrium 5. Mix up the strategies . Eliminate any dominated strategies 4.

Plan ahead and look back .

use it Use strategy 1 .If you have a Dominating strategy.

Eliminate strategy 2 as it’s dominated by strategy 1 Eliminate any Dominated strategy .

Look for any equilibrium • Dominating Equilibrium • Minimax Equilibrium • Nash Equilibrium .

to maximize the minimum gain (offensive) • Minimax = Maximin .Maximin & Minimax Equilibrium • Minimax .to minimize the maximum loss (defensive) • Maximin .

Maximin & Minimax Equilibrium Strategies .

html .drexel. then that set of strategies and the corresponding payoffs constitute the Nash Equilibrium.lebow. “ Source: http://www.Definition: Nash Equilibrium “If there is a set of strategies with the property that no player can benefit by changing her strategy while the other players keep their strategies unchanged.edu/economics/mccain/game/game.

Is this a Nash Equilibrium? .

food given = 10 units .Boxed Pigs Example Cost to press button = 2 units When button is pressed.

...Decisions. decisions.

Mixed Strategy .

000 110.091 $ 9.000 100.091 .000 Expected Loss $ 9.Mixed Strategy Solution Probability of being Guarded 1 / 11 10 / 11 Value in Safe Safe 1 Safe 2 Both $ $ $ 10.

Evolutionary Game Theory • Natural selection replaces rational behavior • Survival of the fittest • Why use evolution to determine a strategy? .

Hawk / Dove Game .

Evolutionary Stable Strategy • Introduced by Maynard Smith and Price (1973) • Strategy becomes stable throughout the population • Mutations becoming ineffective .

.

ESS of Hawk/Dove Game 12 10 Expected Payoff 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 0 20 40 60 80 100 % of Population with Dove Strategy Hawk Strategy Dove Strategy .

.

ESS of Hawk/Dove Game 12 10 Expected Payoff 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 0 20 40 60 80 100 % of Population with Dove Strategy Hawk Strategy Dove Strategy .

Where is game theory currently used? – Ecology – Networks – Economics .

Limitations & Problems • Assumes players always maximize their outcomes • Some outcomes are difficult to provide a utility for • Not all of the payoffs can be quantified • Not applicable to all problems .

Indiana Jones Scenario .

Network people.... • How is this related to AI? – Provides a method to simulate a thinking agent . Ecologists.Summary • What is game theory? – Abstraction modeling multi-person interactions • How is game theory applied? – Payoff matrix contains each person’s utilities for various strategies • Who uses game theory? – Economists.

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