Dow Jones Industrial Average (Monthly Log Scale

)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average has become flawed (for wave counting purposes) over the years as it is an “average,” and not a true index of stocks. It is for this reason that we don‟t model the DJIA. However, the DJIA has a much longer history than the S&P 500 and is useful in getting our “bearings” on the longer term wave model.

2000 < III >
-V-

-B-D-

REPRINTED from 9/7/2010
-A-C- III - IV -E-

< IV > 2018-2030
This period looks congestive/correcitve. The Wave -V- did not start until the beginning of 1995.

1966 <I>
-V(X)

-I-X- II -Y-W-

1929 <X>
-B-D-I-

- III (Y) (W)

- IV -

< II > 1982

- II -E-

<Y>
-C-

II
The Supercyle Wave II, which began in 1860, concluded in 1949.

-A-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

This continues to be the much longer term wave count. In technical parlance, we are waiting on the Intermediate (B) Wave of Cycle -C- to conclude. We favor the idea of Triangle Cycle -C- because Wave (A) was an “elongated flat,” something normally witnessed within a triangle.

9/1/2000

-B-

REPRINTED from 4/24/2011
-D(B) (D)

< III >

(E)

-C-A(A) (C)

-E< IV > 2018-2030

Baby Boomers will have fully exited the Stock Market by this point

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

This longer term count remains favored. Nothing in the market has altered this view. The higher this (B) wave travels, though, it becomes more likely the (C) Wave will not be that powerful of a move. The (B) wave is „telling a tale‟ of underlying strength. So, the next corrective move lower should cause the S&P 500 to break below 1,000 but it‟s unlikely we will see action below 900. This next (C) will be at least a TWO YEAR grind lower.

9/1/2000

< III >

-B(B)
“z” “y”

(D)

“w”

“x”

“x” (E)

(C)

-C-

-A(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly

This primary count from the March „09 lows remains unchanged. The w-x-y-x-z structure still fits best. I know that Glenn Neely is labeling that move a triangle and I can‟t dispute that view yet. They both are five corrective moves connected together. I don‟t think it‟s a triangle because the first retracement hit an exact Fibonnaci percentage. In a triangle, the b-wave should NOT retrace an exact Fibbonacci.

(B)
“z” “y” b d b a e

“w”
d c a c e

“x”
e?

“x”

(A)

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Legs

(B)
“y” 1371 “z”? 1422

“w” 1150

1202 “x”

1040 “x”

NOTES: The first “x” corrected 22.8%, very close to the first Fibonacci retrace of 23.6%. The second “x” corrected 51%, very close to a classic 50% retrace. Wave “y” was essentially 50.7% of “w” on a log scale, very close to 50%. If “z” concluded at 1422, it would be 60.8% of “y” on a log scale, very close to 61.8%

Bottom line: There are a lot of nice relationships here.

667 (A)
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Log Scale

REPRINTED from 4/1/2012

Markets have a memory. 1440 stands out to me because there were some good battles around that level. The green arrows point out moments when the market couldn‟t close below 1440. The last red arrow is the real highlight as it was at that point the market started its collapse in earnest--falling without much in the way of a retracement. 1440 is also the 85% retrace of the entire decline from top to bottom. I don’t think 85% is a particularly important retrace but I know some well known Ellioticians who do pay attention to that level.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

REPRINTED from 4/1/2012
i g?

e
h c f a d

b

1202

This is me yawning at this market. Once again the market stayed well within our first levels of resistance and support. I‟ve raised the first level of weekly support to 1386 as this „feels‟ like a market that must keep maintaining even minor support points. 1340 is near the 38.2% retrace and aligns well with a KEY market level.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support
(B)
“z”
i?
g?

e

c f

h?

d a

b

1202

It‟s still “possible” that this market makes another nominal high, but the recent decline from 1422 looks severe enough to make that idea a „long shot.‟ 1338 looks like an extremely important technical level for the bulls to maintain. A break below 1338 would look very ominous. As it stands, there is a strong probability that we‟ve seen the highs for 2012.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ 20 Min. Chart
I don‟t like to look a charts on this small of time scale normally. But, here I‟m trying to examine the “nature” of the decline from top. Unfortunately, it‟s “ambiguous.” It looks more like a seven-legged corrective move lower, but I can see how someone might want to label it an “impulse” down. The bounce back from the lows looks extremely corrective in nature--bulls should be worried about the look of that sideways/choppy move. This whole pattern strongly suggests another leg down coming on the S&P 500.
[2] [b]

[1] [a]

[4] [d]

[.2] [c]

[.1] [3] [c]

[.4] [f]

[a]

[e]

[.3] [e] [d] [b]

[.5] of [5] [g]

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

AAPL - Weekly with Backward Looking Fibonacci Retracements
If the S&P500 is crapping out now, this stock will be the prime culprit. Apple has been the vanguard of the stock market for a few years now. This one issue represents an astounding amount of market cap that will have an affect on the S&P500 if it starts to trade down. Presented below is “backward looking” Fibonacci retracements. It seems like markets often “know” where they are going to end up ahead of time and they often “inflect” at important retracements on the way. Check out the way the market gyrated around what become the 50-61.8% retracement.

The $427 area is an interesting for another reason…..

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

AAPL - Daily with “Gap to Fill”
Check out that gap that begins at $431. All gaps get filled… “eventually”. The $427-$431 area will be solid support on the first go. That will be small consolation to those longs who just experienced the $200 slide lower.

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRADAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Wave Symbology "I" or "A" I or A <I>or <A> -I- or -A(I) or (A) "1“ or "a" 1 or a -1- or -a(1) or (a) [1] or [a] [.1] or [.a] = Grand Supercycle = Supercycle = Cycle = Primary = Intermediate = Minor = Minute = Minuette = Sub-minuette = Micro = Sub-Micro

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