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# SHAMEER P.

## REWIND YOUR MIND

Hypothesis mere assumption to be proved or disproved normal question that intends to resolve tentative formulated for empirical testing tentative answer to research question point to start a research

## Research Questions and Hypotheses

Research question:
Non-directional:
No stated expectation about outcome

Example:

Hypothesis:
Statement of expected relationship
Directionality of relationship

Example:
Women will have greater conversational memory than men

## The Null Hypothesis

Null Hypothesis - the absence of a relationship
E..g., There is no difference between mens and womens with regards to conversational memories

## Compare observed results to Null Hypothesis

How different are the results from the null hypothesis?

We do not propose a null hypothesis as research hypothesis - need very large sample size / power
Used as point of contrast for testing

## dept. of futures studies 2010-'12

Hypotheses testing
When we test observed results against null:
We can make two decisions:
1. Accept the null
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## 2. Reject the null

Significant relationship Observed results different from the Null Hypothesis

## Type I and Type II Error

1. Type I Error
Reality: No relationship Decision: Reject the null
Believe your research hypothesis have received support when in fact you should have disconfirmed it Analogy: Find an innocent man guilty of a crime

2. Type II Error

## Reality: Relationship Decision: Accept the null

Believe your research hypothesis has not received support when in fact you should have rejected the null. Analogy: Find a guilty man innocent of a crime

## Potential outcomes of testing

Decision Accept Null Reject Null

Relationship

Type II Error

Correct decision

R E A L I T Y

No Relationship

Correct decision

Type I Error

## Start by setting level of risk of making a Type I Error

How dangerous is it to make a Type I Error:
What risk is acceptable?:
5%? 1%? .1%?

## Level of acceptable risk is called Significance level :

Usually the cutoff - <.05

## Steps in Hypothesis Testing

1) State research hypothesis 2) State null hypothesis 3) Decide the appropriate test criterion( eg. t test, 2 test, F test etc.) 4) Set significance level (e.g., .05 level) 5) Observe results 6) Statistics calculate probability of results if null hypothesis were true 7) If probability of observed results is less than significance level, then reject the null

## Guarding against Errors

Significance level regulates Type I Error Conservative standards reduce Type I Error:
.01 instead of .05, especially with large sample

## Reducing the probability of Type I Error:

Increases the probability of Type II Error

## Sample size regulates Type II Error

The larger the sample, the lower the probability of Type II Error occurring in conservative testing

## Methods used to test hypothesis

T test Z test F test 2 test ..

## Testing hypothesis for two nominal variables

Variables Gender Null hypothesis Passing is not related to gender Pass/Fail Procedure Chi-square
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## Testing hypothesis for one nominal and one ratio variable

Variables Gender Null hypothesis Procedure T-test
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## Testing hypothesis for one nominal and one ratio variable

Variable Year in school Null hypothesis
Score is not related to year in school

Procedure
ANOVA
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Test score
Can be used when nominal variable has more than two categories and can include more than one independent variable

## Testing hypothesis for two ratio variables

Variable
Hours spent studying

Null hypothesis
Score is not related to hours spent studying

Procedure

Test score

Correlation

## Testing hypothesis for more than two ratio variables

Variable Hours spent studying Null hypothesis Procedure

Test score

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Classes missed

Score is positively related to hours spent studying and negatively related to classes missed

Multiple regression

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Chi square
2 (

) test

Used to:
Test for goodness of fit Test for independence of attributes Testing homogeneity Testing given population variance

## Chi-Square Test of Independence

Introduction (1)
We often have occasions to make comparisons between two characteristics of something to see if they are linked or related to each other. One way to do this is to work out what we would expect to find if there was no relationship between them (the usual null hypothesis) and what we actually observe.

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Introduction (2)
The test we use to measure the differences between what is observed and what is expected according to an assumed hypothesis is called the chi-square test.

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For Example
Some null hypotheses may be: there is no relationship between the subject of first period and the number of students absent in our class. there is no relationship between the height of the land and the vegetation cover. there is no connection between the size of farm and the type of farm

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Important
The chi square test can only be used on data that has the following characteristics:

## The data must be in the form of frequencies

The frequency data must have a precise numerical value and must be organised into categories or groups.

The expected frequency in any one cell of the table must be greater than 5. The total number of observations must be greater than 20.

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Contingency table
Frequency table in which a sample from a population is classified according to two attributes, which are divided in to two or more classes
DRUNKARDS GENDER 675 MALES 987 NON DRUNKARDS
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540

997

FEMALES

Degrees of Freedom
no of independent observations Number of cells no. of constraints
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Formula
2 = (O E)2
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2 = The value of chi square O = The observed value E = The expected value (O E)2 = all the values of (O E) squared then added together

Critical region:

## Observed Frequencies (O)

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Money

Health

Love

Row Total
883 893 1776

82 46 128

## Work out the expected frequency.

Expected frequency = row total x column total Grand total
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money
men women Column Total 63.63 64.36 128

health
507.128 512.87 1020

love
312.23 315.76 628

Row Total
883 893 1776

## For each of the cells calculate.

(O E)2 E
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money
Men women Column Total 5.30 5023

health
7.37 7.29

love
5.85 5.8

Row Total

2Calc. =
36.873

2Calc. = sum of all ( O-E)2/ E values in the cells. Here 2Calc. =36.873
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Find 2critical From the table with degree of freedom 2 and level of significance 0.05 2Critical =5.99

2 table

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Conclusion
Compare 2Calc. and 2critical obtained from the table

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If 2Calc. Is larger than 2Critical. then reject null hypothesis and accept the alternative Here since 2Calc. is much greater than 2Critical, we can easily reject null hypothesis that is ; there lies a relation between the gender and choice of selection.

Reference
RESEARCH METHODOLGIES
- L R Potti
dept. of futures studies 2010-'12