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- Assignment 2
- Null hypothesis significance testing
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Hypothesis mere assumption to be proved or disproved normal question that intends to resolve tentative formulated for empirical testing tentative answer to research question point to start a research

Research question:

Non-directional:

No stated expectation about outcome

Example:

Hypothesis:

Statement of expected relationship

Directionality of relationship

Example:

Women will have greater conversational memory than men

Null Hypothesis - the absence of a relationship

E..g., There is no difference between mens and womens with regards to conversational memories

How different are the results from the null hypothesis?

We do not propose a null hypothesis as research hypothesis - need very large sample size / power

Used as point of contrast for testing

Hypotheses testing

When we test observed results against null:

We can make two decisions:

1. Accept the null

dept. of futures studies 2010-'12

Significant relationship Observed results different from the Null Hypothesis

1. Type I Error

Reality: No relationship Decision: Reject the null

Believe your research hypothesis have received support when in fact you should have disconfirmed it Analogy: Find an innocent man guilty of a crime

2. Type II Error

Believe your research hypothesis has not received support when in fact you should have rejected the null. Analogy: Find a guilty man innocent of a crime

Decision Accept Null Reject Null

Relationship

Type II Error

Correct decision

R E A L I T Y

No Relationship

Correct decision

Type I Error

How dangerous is it to make a Type I Error:

What risk is acceptable?:

5%? 1%? .1%?

Usually the cutoff - <.05

1) State research hypothesis 2) State null hypothesis 3) Decide the appropriate test criterion( eg. t test, 2 test, F test etc.) 4) Set significance level (e.g., .05 level) 5) Observe results 6) Statistics calculate probability of results if null hypothesis were true 7) If probability of observed results is less than significance level, then reject the null

Significance level regulates Type I Error Conservative standards reduce Type I Error:

.01 instead of .05, especially with large sample

Increases the probability of Type II Error

The larger the sample, the lower the probability of Type II Error occurring in conservative testing

T test Z test F test 2 test ..

Variables Gender Null hypothesis Passing is not related to gender Pass/Fail Procedure Chi-square

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Variables Gender Null hypothesis Procedure T-test

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Variable Year in school Null hypothesis

Score is not related to year in school

Procedure

ANOVA

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Test score

Can be used when nominal variable has more than two categories and can include more than one independent variable

Variable

Hours spent studying

Null hypothesis

Score is not related to hours spent studying

Procedure

Test score

Correlation

Variable Hours spent studying Null hypothesis Procedure

Test score

Classes missed

Score is positively related to hours spent studying and negatively related to classes missed

Multiple regression

Chi square

2 (

) test

Used to:

Test for goodness of fit Test for independence of attributes Testing homogeneity Testing given population variance

Introduction (1)

We often have occasions to make comparisons between two characteristics of something to see if they are linked or related to each other. One way to do this is to work out what we would expect to find if there was no relationship between them (the usual null hypothesis) and what we actually observe.

Introduction (2)

The test we use to measure the differences between what is observed and what is expected according to an assumed hypothesis is called the chi-square test.

For Example

Some null hypotheses may be: there is no relationship between the subject of first period and the number of students absent in our class. there is no relationship between the height of the land and the vegetation cover. there is no connection between the size of farm and the type of farm

Important

The chi square test can only be used on data that has the following characteristics:

The frequency data must have a precise numerical value and must be organised into categories or groups.

The expected frequency in any one cell of the table must be greater than 5. The total number of observations must be greater than 20.

Contingency table

Frequency table in which a sample from a population is classified according to two attributes, which are divided in to two or more classes

DRUNKARDS GENDER 675 MALES 987 NON DRUNKARDS

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540

997

FEMALES

Degrees of Freedom

no of independent observations Number of cells no. of constraints

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Formula

2 = (O E)2

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2 = The value of chi square O = The observed value E = The expected value (O E)2 = all the values of (O E) squared then added together

Critical region:

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Money

Health

Love

Row Total

883 893 1776

82 46 128

Expected frequency = row total x column total Grand total

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money

men women Column Total 63.63 64.36 128

health

507.128 512.87 1020

love

312.23 315.76 628

Row Total

883 893 1776

(O E)2 E

dept. of futures studies 2010-'12

money

Men women Column Total 5.30 5023

health

7.37 7.29

love

5.85 5.8

Row Total

2Calc. =

36.873

2Calc. = sum of all ( O-E)2/ E values in the cells. Here 2Calc. =36.873

dept. of futures studies 2010-'12

Find 2critical From the table with degree of freedom 2 and level of significance 0.05 2Critical =5.99

2 table

Conclusion

Compare 2Calc. and 2critical obtained from the table

If 2Calc. Is larger than 2Critical. then reject null hypothesis and accept the alternative Here since 2Calc. is much greater than 2Critical, we can easily reject null hypothesis that is ; there lies a relation between the gender and choice of selection.

Reference

RESEARCH METHODOLGIES

- L R Potti

dept. of futures studies 2010-'12

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