Four Decades of Socioeconomic Survey in a Rice Village in East Laguna

Click to edit Kei Kajisa Master subtitle style IRRI SSD

IRRI Thursday Seminar March 29, 2012

East Laguna village in the early 70s.

The study village

Four decades mean

2008 After Rice Price Crises

Terminology
Land holding status Land owner Landless Farming status Landlord (Absentee landlord) Landlord-farmoperator Tenant Farmer/Farm Farmer/Farmoperator operator

Interactions of 5 Modernization Forces

Resource endowment Population pressure (advanced med and pub. Health) Agriculture Green Revolution (scientific ag.) Land reform (social reform against the past colonialism) Public investments Development of irrigation, roads, and schools Globalization Non-farm and Livelihoods of rurallink to foreign Farming activities (easier people markets)
Intensive, continuous monitoring of one village as one social observatory

13-round IRRI-SSD surveys

1966 1950s Land frontie Populatio rs 1958 n closed pressure 1958 NIA Irrigation system Umehara survey

1974 1st IRRI SSD survey

2007 Latest IRRI SSD survey

IR8 Green Revolution

1980

201 1 NIA system Rehabilitatio

Land reform

1965 1962 Barrio school Country road

(Lost Decade) 1999 High ways Opening of sub-division FDI and factories in Laguna area 2006 Typhoon Milenyo

Masagana 99

Initial Condition of the Village

Began to be settled in the 1880s. Rainfed rice monoculture Sharecropping contract (landlords in local towns nearby) 50:50 share No significant class differentiation w/in the village (all are poor) First wave of modernization: pop growth

Population Pressure on Land Total Population (

1 5

Population/land ratio (Persons/ha)

100 persons)

Paddy area (ha)

10 2

1 2

Paddy area (ha) Total Population

9 6

7 2

4 8

Population/h a

2 4

0 11 98

0 14 90 16 90 16 96 17 94 17 96 Ya er 18 90 18 93 18 97 19 95 19 97

Growth of population and rice land, East Laguna Village, 1918-1997

Source: Hayami and Kikuchi

Population Pressure
Household
428

Total

Difficulty in land acquisition

Opening of new subdivision

242 17% 158

59%

Non Farm Worker

109 66 30% 70% 50% 34% 21% 9% 50% 62% 62% 32%

Agricultural Laborer Farmer

1966

1976

1987

1995

2007

Distribution of household by type, East Laguna village, 1966 - 2007

Source: Hayami and Kikuchi (2000) & IRRI SSD

Rice yields per hectare

% of farmers adopted

Distribution of

rice varieties

Rice by CPI Deflated price (P/kg)

6 . 5 0 . 4 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 1 0 1 . 0 9 52 55

W D e r t y

2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0

1 9 6 0

1 9 6 5

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 5

DS 2011 Triple-2 50% (introduced 1 1 1 by a wedding1 guest from 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 NE) 0 5 0 5 RC-10 10% RC18 10%

19 55

19 60

19 65

19 70

19 75

19 80

19 85

19 90

19 95

Distribution of rice varieties adopted by farmers, average yield per hectare, and rice price received by farmers, East Laguna Village, 1965-2011 Source: IRRI SSD Database, Hayami and

700 600 500 400 300 200 100

Trends in world production and real price of rice, 1961-2008

1800 1500

Production of unmilled rice (million MT)

1200

900

Real price
600

300

0 1961

1968

1975

1982 Year

1989

1997

2008

Poor HHs food security has been better off throughout 80s and 90s

Source: Production: USDA, 13May2008 Rice Price: 2008 is May 2008 price. Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on April 17, 2008 data update) Source: www.worldbank.org

Real price of milled rice (2008) US$/ton)

World Production

196 6 8 9

197 10 6 5

199 5

Othe rs Harv/ Thre sh Weedi ng Cr op Esta b. Land Pre p.

6 3 2 1 3 1 0 2 8

3 8
4 4

7 5

7 3

9 2 7 1 5 1 0 1

2 8 2 8 5 Hir ed
4 9

3 2 1 0 1 9 To tal

3 4 2 2 8 1 0 Hir ed
7 1

4 2 6 1 3 9 9 Hir ed
8 4

6 1

Tot al

2 Tot al

Percent hired (%)

Labor utilization in rice production per hectare wet season, East Laguna Village, 1966 - 1995
Source: Hayami and Kikuchi (2000) & IRRI SSD

Impact of Green Revolution

Q P (locally and globally)

Agricultural treadmill Benefit of net sellers is little. Net buyers (marginal farmers, landless, urban people) has been better off.

in demand for hired labor

Land Reform Programs (1970s~ )

Operation Leasehold

Sharecropping leasehold tenancy w/ land rent fixed at lower-than-market rate (50% 25%)

Operation Land Transfer

Land ownership to tenants (amortization payment equivalent to 25% of harvest) Land to the tillers

Land Reform and Land Tenure Status

o w ne d 1% le a s e ho ld 29%
S ha re 27% o w ne d 2%
P awning O wne rship S ha re 1% 15% o wne d 29 % S ub -Re nte d 6% S ha re 6% S ub -Rente d 7% o wne d 25%

S ha re 63%

S ub -R e nte d S ub -R e nte d 8 % 7%

le a s e ho ld 63%

le ase ho ld 4 9%

le asehold 62 %

1966
1970

1976

1996

2006

Operation Distribution Leasehold

of

1980 Operation rice land by tenure Land Transfer

status, East Laguna Village, 1966-1995

Source: Hayami and Kikuchi (2000) & IRRI SSD

Resulted in an inactive land rental market

Remarks on the Land Reform

What if my tenant went to the land reform office and my land was transferred to the tenant? Disguised tenancy. Unwillingness to outsource completely.

Little chance of landless ag. Labor to be a tenant.

Disappearance of agricultural ladder.

Ag labor tenant owner cultivator

Oversupply of ag labor and low wage rate Nullify labor demand increase

Population Pressure
Household
428

Total

59% 242 17% 158 109 66 30% 70% 50% 34% 21% 9% 50% 62% 62% 32%

Non Farm Worker

Agricultural Laborer Farmer

1966

1976

1987

1995

2007

Distribution of household by type, East Laguna village, 1966 - 2007

Source: Hayami and Kikuchi (2000) & IRRI SSD

Gross income (kg of paddy) 26 % 50 % 24 %

2920 174 23 0 % 33 % 44 %
16 96

35 % 53 % 13 %9 1 5 9

325 0 Hired laborer

Farm operator

Land owner

18 92

The benefit to the hired labor increased but not as much as that of farm Shares of income from rice production per hectare, wet season, operators.

East Laguna Village, 1966-1995

Source: Hayami and Kikuchi

Transformation of a rice village

Irrigation MVs Land reform

Trad. Rice Village

GR

Farm Income

Immediate impact of GR

Time

196 6

Impact on schooling Investments 197 198 199

6 7 7

200 6

Large Small Agric. farme farme labore r r r

Average number of school years per adult male The increase can be attributed to the (21-64 years old), East Laguna Village, 1966-2006
increase among young generations.

Large farme r

Small farme r

Agric. labore r

Large farme r

Small Agric. farme labore r r

Nonfarm worker

Large Small Agric. Nonfarme farme labore farm r r r worker

Large Small Agric. farme farme labore r r r

Nonfarm worker

Source: IRRI SSD

Job opening ads at a municipal hall

Fujitsus job opening ad

Click to edit Master subtitle style

Small garment factory (Laguna)

Bakery in the East Laguna Village

Schooling and Non-farm Jobs Farming Ag/Casual labor Overseas work

1 3 16
0 .5 1

Self employment 30
Density
.5 1

Unskilled work at small 41 ent

Unskilled work at large 42 ent

10

15

20

10

15

20

Technical/skilled work 43
1

Completion years Primary= 6 Secondary= 10 Tertiary= 14

20

0 0

.5

10

15

Graphs by typoccup22

Distribution of schooling years by occupation

Kajisa

Schooling years

Impacts of changes in personal networks and schooling years by occupation (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (Simulation results)
Oversea SelfUnskilled Unskilled Technical/ s work employme labor Small labor Large Skilled nt enterprises enterprises work

Impact of Network Change Family/Relative network change Prob. at average network size Prob. after increasing one person Change Friend network change Prob. at average network size Prob. after increasing one person Change Acquaintance network change Prob. at average network size Prob. after increasing one person Change

0.03 0.03 0 0.01 0.01 0 0.04 0.03 0.01

0.37 0.41 0.04 0.35 0.37 0.02 0.34 0.37 0.03

0.10 0.16 0.06 0.13 0.15 0.02 0.12 0.12 0.00

0.19 0.17 -0.02 0.18 0.17 0.01 0.17 0.20 0.03

0.07 0.08 0.01 0.08 0.09 0.01 0.07 0.08 0.01

Impact of schooling year change Schooling years increase from primary to secondary level Prob. at the completion of primary 0.02 0.50 0.08 school

0.11

0.00

Kajisa

Sharp increase in Non-farm income

87 13

1974/76

51
Farm origin 62

17 28 16 22
40%
Non-rice

18 8 27 24

4 9
38

1 6

1980/83

18
36

Non-farm origin 64

1995/96
0%

14

8
20%

15

15
80% 100%

60%

Rice

Farm wage Others

Non-farm ent.

Non-farm wage

Percentage composition of average household income, East Laguna Village, 1974-95.

Source: IRRI SSD

1974/76
33

1995/96

17

18 17
9

8 6

Large farme r 100

Small farme r 57

Agric. labore r 35 %

Large farme r 100 %

Small farme r 55

Agric. labore r 23

Nonfarm worker 53

Average per-capita incomes (CPI deflation) by type of household (1000 pesos), East Laguna Village, 1974/76 to 1995/96

10 0 8 0 6 0

Income distribution 7 1 4 9
18 93 19 95

4 5 4 5 5 1

% Gini
6 8 6 7 5 6

% Poor

Income

4 0 2 0 0 0 10 0 8 0 6 0 2 0 4 0 Ya er 6 0 8 0 10 0

10 0

Land distribution 6 16 9
17 94 18 93 19 95

Land

4 0 2 0 0 0
0

5 4 6 2 7 7 8 9

% Gini
6 0

8 0

4 0

2 0

2 0

4 0

Ya er

6 0

8 0

10 0

Changes in land and income distribution, East Laguna Village, 1966-1995

Note.
% Gini: Gini coefficient calculated across individuals under the assumption that a household income was distributed equally among the members of each household.

% Poor: Percentage of population having incomes below the poverty line. The poverty line is defined as an annual per-capita income required to satisfy basic nutritional requirements (2000 calories) and other basic needs. The poverty lines in respective years are estimated by deflating the 1994 poverty line by CPI estimated by the National Statistical Coordination Board (1996) for the rural sector of the Philippines.

Source: Hayami Kikuchi

Transformation of a rice village

Irrigation MV Land reform Factories in Industrial zones

Trad. Rice Village

GR

Farm Income Schooling Investments To children Non-Farm income

Aging of farmers

Long-term impact of GR Heterogeneity in occupations

Time

Equity in Income distribution, maintained

Labor wage rate from 1965 to 2011

700 40 600

Ag. wage (deflator=CPI) Ind. wage (deflator=CPI) Ag. wage (deflator=rice price)

35

500

30

P/day (2000 prices)

400

300

Labor is abundant for 25 agriculture at the same low wage rate! 20

kg/day
15

200

P 131 /d

100

10

0 1965

5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

2011

Figure 2. Changes in real wage rates in the non-farm sector and in a rice village in the Laguna lowland rice belt, rough estimates, 1965-2002

Kikuchi (2002)

Abundant labor is still available at the same low cost. I-1. Outsourcing of farming, rather than mechanization But many of them are outsiders (new migrants, poorer people in nearby villages) I-2. Management through Kabisilya (foreman) , rather than direct hiring Inactive land-rental market because of the land reform I-3. Unwilling to outsource faming completely (so that the owners can still claim they are farming and the tenants are not the tillers). Vested interest among old ex-farmers (retaining harvesting right of particular parcels)

Complicated incentives in farm management

Complexity in labor management

Activity Arrangement (DS 2011)
Cont. w/ a tractor owner (per ha. base) Cont . w/ Kabsiliya (per ha. base) (1) Farmers (2) Upahan (ag. Labor, daily wage base) (3) Procientuhan (10% sharecropping for management)
(1) (2) (3)

LP TP CC

HV TH

(4)

arrangement for him/her in that particular Cont. w/ a threshing machine owner (9-10% of season.

Hunusan ( % of harvest) Gama (% of harvest w/ weeding service) Pakyau (outsourcing to Kabsiliya, per ha. base) Almost every season every farmer has to Hunusan + sub-contracting to Kabsiliya think of what is the optimal labor

harvest)

Transformation of a rice village

Irrigation MV Land reform Factories in Industrial zones Abundant labor in poorer villages Outsourci ng of farming Inflexible rule/vested interest

Trad. Rice Village

GR

Farm Income Schooling Investments To children Non-Farm income

Aging of farmer s

Complicated labor arrangement

Time

Equity in Income distribution, maintained

Heterogeneity in occupations

Changes in irrigation

System Cost of irrigation Percentage of paddy fields cultivated by the villagers by irrigation condition, East rehabilita NIA: 1,500/ha (WS) 2,500/ha (DS) Laguna Village, 1985-2012 tion by Pump: 5,000 /ha (WS) 10,000/ha (DS) NIA in 2011 Source: IRRI SSD

Transformation of a rice village

Irrigation MV Land reform Factories in Industrial zones Abundant labor in poorer villages Outsourci ng of farming Collective irrigation Mng Inflexible rule/vested interest

Trad. Rice Village

GR

Farm Income Schooling Investments To children Non-Farm income

Aging of farmer s

Complicated labor arrangement Costly Private pump irrigation

Time

Equity in Income distribution, maintained

Heterogeneity in occupations

Impact of Typhoon Milenyo

An Overview of Milenyo On September 25, 2006 Php6.5B (US$130M) damages to infrastructure and agriculture. 496,325 homes were totally or partially destroyed. 127 deaths, 323 injured, and 45 missing.

Electricity supply was cut.

Completely damaged house

A house reconstructed by the Red Cross Aid (photo taken in 2011)

Fallen mango trees

Click to edit Master subtitle style

Damages to rice fields

Overall Damages of Milenyo

aCrop share for porcientuhan and harvest share for wage workers. bCrop share on rented-out plots.

Kind of damage

Farmer Number % 24 0 12 0 2 0 22 0 0 2 0 0 2 5 2 0 17 10 0 0 100

Landless Number 63 0 39 0 1 1 16 0 0 5 0 0 0 11 0 2 9 1 0 1 149 % 42 0 26 0 1 1 11 0 0 3a 0 0 0 7 0 1 6a 1a 0 1 100

Nonagricultural Number 108 0 62 0 5 5 6 0 0 13 4 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 210 % 51 0 30 0 2 2 3 0 0 6b 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 100

None (0) Lost house (1) House seriously damage (2) Lost utensils (3) Lost productive assets (4) Lost job (5) Income declined (6) Lost members (7) Members got injured or sicked (8) Crop damage (9) Others (10) Combination of (2) and (4) Combination of (2) and (5) Combination of (2) and (6) Combination of (2) and (9) Combination of (4) and (6) Combination of (6) and (9) Combination of (2), (6) and (9) Combination of (1), (6) and (9) Combination of (6) and (10) Total

10 0 5 0 1 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 0 7 4 0 0 41

Sawada et al

Damages to Farm endowments and harvests

Damages to paddy Paddy got wet when the fields were submerged in water and wet paddy commands a lower price in the market. Total paddy harvest 151,160 kg (the expected harvest was 222,966 kg) 32% decline by Milenyo (Subjective) Decline in paddy price: Php8.89 per kg to Php7.44 per kg (16% reduction). On the average, Per HH loss of paddy is Php260 the minimum wage rate of Php250.00 per day. Per HH loss of mango tree is Php680 per household 2.72 times the minimum wage rate per day. Estimated (subjective) Farm endowment Number Number heavily

completely lost 4 441 17 239 18 19 7

damaged

value lost (PHP) 2,100 17,755 5,400 271,950 26,525 2,250 9,100

Avocado Banana Jackfruit Mango Rambutan Chicken Pigs

5 402 42 98 27 0 0

Sawada et al

Households Risk Coping Mechanisms

Coping mechanism 1.Reduce food consumption 1.1 Rice 1.2 Protein 1.3 Food taken outside 2. Switch consumption to own produce 3. Reduce child schooling 4. Reduce medical expenses 5. of valuable items 6. Emergency borrowing 6.1 Bank 6.2 Relatives 6.3 Friends 6.4 Neighbors 6.5 Moneylender 6.6 Pawnshop 6.7 Sari-sari store 7. Emigration 8. Received remittances 9. Aid from local government and NGO 10. Nonfarm employment Farmer households (%) 27 0 5 22 12 2 0 0 33 5 12 3 0 10 0 3 0 25 46 85 Landless households (%) 76 15 27 34 34 1 3 4 50 3 13 7 6 6 0 15 0 16 65 60 Nonagricultural households (%) 47 8 13 26 22 4 3 6 30 2 10 3 0 5 0 10 0 21 58 94

Sawada et al

Risk Coping Mechanism

A decrease in the expenditure on relatively more expensive sources of protein (such as pork) is the most common reaction among landless HHs. Nonfarm employment played a crucial role as an insurance mechanism. The community networks in securing emergency loans and the personal networks in receiving remittances were particularly important for the landless poor. The active local government participation in managing the disaster was considered by the poor as another important factor that allowed them to cope with the disaster.

The village is not a pure rice village anymore.

After 4 decades of transformation

Non-farm workers: 59% (rice is still important; paddy fields are fully cultivated; yield is high.)

Rice farming is becoming more difficult because

it requires skillful labor management it requires collective irrigation management among heterogeneous members. (otherwise, they need to use expensive pump water.)

Advertisement

Long term village studies reveal

Dynamics of transformation Long term impact of technologies, in association with other modernization factors Potential and bottlenecks for further development in the future. The Central Luzon Loop survey, Bohol Irrigation System (4-season

SSDs activities

Acknowledgements
Great Predecessors Yujiro Hayami Masao Kikuchi Randy Barker Mahabub Hossain Current and exSSD staff Pie Moya Esther Marciano Fe Gascon Lui Bambo Raph Aranil Mirla Domingo Tintin Doctolero Collaborators Jonna P. Estudillo Nobuhiko Fuwa Yasuyuki Sawada Yuki Higuchi

Available at IRRI Gift Shop, for those who are interested in the early period of the village

Above all, my deepest gratitude goes to the villagers of the East Laguna Village.