000 mile natural gas pipeline from Bolivia” Mack McLarty. She drives to work in a Ford fueled with Venezuelan gasoline.ENERGY GLOBALIZATION • ‘When a Brazilian brews her morning coffee today. she is likely to use electricity from a power plant in Uruguay that runs on natural gas from Argentina provided by a Chilean company. and her Canadian-owned factory may soon be powered by a 2. former White House advisor .

dirty coal or clean natural gas – and where will the supplies come from? Will this shift lead to competition – both economic and political – for access to supplies? Can these countries pay for the energy and supporting infrastructure.THE FUTURE OF ENERGY • By the year 2020. energy consumption by the Developing World is expected to surpass that of the Industrialized World. such as power-generating plants. or will the Industrialized World have to help out with funds and with technology transfers? If not. What forms of energy will these countries be consuming – cheap. the divide between North and South becomes wider. .

What happens to all the energy consumed worldwide? A surprising 38% is burned to generate electricity. The relative share of renewables holds its own. especially in power generation. This growth will be concentrated in the developing countries. as does more than half the oil consumed. clearly reflecting its reputation as a clean-burning fuel. where electricity use will more than double.THE FUTURE OF ENERGY • The coming years will see important shifts among the kinds of fuel consumed. Electricity is the most rapidly growing form of energy use during the years up to 2020 at least. Natural gas is the only form of primary energy to gain both in absolute and relative terms. 18% goes to fuel transportation. The relative share of oil declines as do the shares of coal and nuclear. • • .

. peat and animal waste are excluded since they are documented unreliably in terms of consumption statistics. Whilst they are important in many countries. Also excluded are wind.WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY* CONSUMPTION INCREASED BY 2. fuels such as wood.4% IN 2006 *primary energy comprises commercially traded fuels only. geothermal and solar power generation.


by 2020 • But this growth requires major infrastructure investments • The US will become more reliant on imported natural gas • Russia. this will continue to be the basis for future growth in coal use. . leading the world in coal reserves and China is the dominant producer and consumer. More than 55% of the coal consumed worldwide is for electricity generation. today providing 26% of the natural gas that Europe consumes.THE FUTURE OF PRIMARY ENERGY Oil trends • European dependence on Gulf oil will remain significant • Asian dependence on Gulf oil will expand dramatically • US oil imports will continue to grow Natural gas trends • Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source • Its use is to double. looks forward to expand its share Coal trends • The US is the major player.

1 68.6 37.IN 2006.5 102. WORLD NUCLEAR GENERATION INCREASED BY 1.808 TERAWATT HOURS (TWH) OF ELECTRICITY.4% WITH NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS GENERATING 2. 2006 (million tones oil equivalent) 187.4 635.9 Country USA France Japan Germany Russia Total Source: BP Statistical Energy Review.5 . THE HIGHEST NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION EVER Nuclear energy consumption. 2007 35.

But by the 2020 that contribution is expected to decline to just 10%. Nuclear power presently accounts for 16% of worldwide electricity generation.The nuclear future is not at all promising. .

 Despite the generally low share of geothermal. It accounts for almost 90% of total electricity generated from renewable sources and 16% of total electricity generation. Over the past five years. Geothermal. Energy that is not commercially traded typically consists of combustible renewables and renewable waste. including firewood. crop residues and animal waste. . providing 18% of total electricity in 2004. renewables remain the third most important source of energy after coal and gas. renewable sources accounted for 10% of the growth of electricity generation in Germany and 6% in the EU-25. This source of energy is especially important in emerging economies and accounts for the vast majority of the world’s renewable energy use  In electricity generation. Hydropower is the most important constituent among renewable sources of electricity. wind and solar electricity generation.RENEWABLE ENERGY  There is no universally accepted definition of renewable energy but it is generally agreed that it includes energy derived from natural processes that do not involve the consumption of exhaustible resources such as fossil fuels and uranium  A large share of renewable energy is non-commercial in the sense that its production and consumption do not involve a market transaction. account for approximately 1% of global electricity generation. charcoal. these sources contributed a significant share to the growth in electricity generation in many OECD countries. wind and solar electricity generation combined.

2006 (million tones oil equivalent) 94.HYDROELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION INCREASED BY 3.1 China Canada Brazil USA Russia Total Source: BP Statistical Energy Review.3 79.3 79. 2007 .6 688.2% IN 2006.2 65. The increase in world hydroelectricity generation was a combination of new capacity coming on stream and good rainfall in some key markets.9 39. Country Hydroelectricity consumption.

.The massive Three Gorges Dam on the Yangzi (Chang) River above Yichang in Hubei Province under construction in 2003. yielding its first power supplies in 2003 with capacity expanding until the entire project is at full production in 2009. This is the world’s largest-ever hydroelectric project.

China. Over the last decade the average annual rate of growth was close to 30%  Germany remained the world’s largest wind power market with an installed capacity of around 20. France . Among developing countries. wind was an important source of electricity in India. followed by the US and Spain with an installed capacity base of 11.6 GW. Denmark generates 14% of its total electricity from wind sources. Germany has a 28% share of total installed capacity. wind generated electricity is still less than 1% of total electricity generation  New additions in wind power generation capacity in 2006 are in: USA. India. contributing around 1% to total electricity generation.6 GW at the end of 2006. Germany. and the US and Spain follow with 16% share each  Wind is a significant source of electricity in Denmark.WIND POWER . TWO THIRDS OF WHICH WAS IN GERMANY AND SPAIN  Installed wind power generation capacity has tripled over the last five years. Spain. Globally. Spain and Germany.WESTERN EUROPE ACCOUNTED FOR MORE THAN 60% OF THE WORLD’S INSTALLED CAPACITY. Spain 9% and Germany 5%.

Japan. installed PV capacity has increased dramatically over the last decade. 58% of this growth was in Germany. The share of these three countries has been increasing steadily over the past decade  Installed capacity in the IEA Photovoltaic Power System Program (PVPS) member countries increased by 1. Between them.ABOVE 40% GROWTH RATE CONTINUED IN 2005. Germany and the US accounted for 90% of installed capacity in the PVPS member countries at the end of 2005. The photovoltaic (PV) application is the larger of the two and data are also more readily available  As with wind.SOLAR ENERGY . MORE THAN DOUBLING THE SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC CAPACITY IN TWO YEARS  Solar energy is used in two main ways: to make electricity (photovoltaics) and to heat water (solar thermal). Japan (42%) and in the UK (40%)  Germany surpassed Japan in terms of solar power generating capacity in 2005. 26% was in Japan and 9% came from the US.094 megawatts (MW) to reach more than 3. .700 MW at the end of 2005. The fastest growth over the past decade was in Germany (55%). albeit from a much lower base than wind capacity  Installed PV capacity base is concentrated in a relatively small number of countries. The increase was more than 18 fold.

Italy and Turkey also expanded generating capacity in 2006  Trend growth has been modest. Among industrialized economies geothermal electricity generation is significant in Iceland (around 20% of total electricity generation) and New Zealand (7% of total electricity generation) .9% IN 2006  The main driver behind the growth in 2006 was the 190 megawatts generating capacity expansion in Iceland. Most of the US geothermal capacity is concentrated in California. averaging 3% per year over the past decade.3%  The US leads the world in installed geothermal power capacity. Slow growth resulted in a stagnating share of geothermal energy in total power generation of approximately 0. making it the largest producer of geothermal electricity in the world. El Salvador. and satisfying 6% of its electricity demand  In El Salvador it accounts for a quarter of all electricity generation and in the Philippines and Kenya approximately one fifth of electricity is generated from geothermal sources.GEOTHERMAL POWER GENERATING CAPACITY GREW BY 2.

2007 .0 2834.4 Japan Russia India Total 1150.5 726.3 992.7 Source: BP Statistical Energy Review.7 19027.ELECTRICITY GENERATION Country USA China Electricity generation. 2006 (Terawatt-hours) 4254.

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