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Module Title Lecturer

: Module 5- Research Methods & Statistic : Inferential Statistic : Prof. Madya Dr. Sabitha Binti Marican

Presented by: EDBM07-49

: Mohd Hisham Bin Ramlee

Date: 22 April 2012

Inferential Statistics

Inferential statistics are used to draw conclusions about a population by examining the sample POPULATION Sample

Inferential Statistics

Accuracy of inference depends on representativeness of sample from population random selection equal chance for anyone to be selected makes sample more representative

and derive meaning from the results a result found to be statistically significant by testing the sample is assumed to also hold for the population from which the sample was drawn the ability to make such an inference is based on the principle of probability .Inferential Statistics Inferential statistics help researchers test hypotheses and answer research questions.

researchers can assess how likely it is that the difference they find is real and not due to chance .Inferential Statistics Researchers set the significance level for each statistical test they conduct by using probability theory as a basis for their tests.

Two Types of Techniques 1. Parametric Technique Non-Parametric Technique 2. .

Parametric Technique makes various assumptions about the nature of the population from which the sample for study is drawn capable of determining the actual difference or relationship in the study .

assumptions about the nature of the population useful in measurements of nominal and ordinal data cannot determine the relationships in a study .Non-Parametric Technique makes few. if any.

Mann-Whitney U Difference Two Groups Within Subjects > Two Groups Sign Test. Wilcoxon Friedman .Common Parametric and NonParametric Tests in Inferring Quantitative Data Association Pearson r Two Groups Independent t One Independent Variable Parametric Between Subjects Two Independent Variables Difference Two Groups Within Subjects > Two Groups Repeated Measures ANOVA Correlated t-test Two-Way ANOVA > Two Grps One-Way Anova Association Spearman rho Two Independent Groups Between Subjects Nonparametric > Two Independent Groups Kruskal-Wallis Chi-Square.

the researcher has a criterion for making this decision . while the H0 would predict no differences by setting the significance level (generally at .05). the H1 would predict that differences would be found.Alternative and Null Hypotheses Inferential statistics test the likelihood that the alternative (research) hypothesis (H1) is true and the null hypothesis (H0) is not in testing differences.

Correlated t-test Parametric Samples are correlated when two or more samples are taken from the same group Correlated t-test checks for significance of difference between two means of correlated samples Example: Compare pretest and posttest exam means of a single programming class that was given a new software tool .

Independent t-test Parametric Test the significance of the difference of means of two samples drawn from independent groups Example: Test whether means of exams of two independent classes are significantly different where the classes each used different software tools .

each getting a different treatment Example: Three different software tools are used in three independent classes then the means of the exam scores are tested to see if there is one that is significantly different from the others .One-Way ANOVA Parametric A composite test of the significance of difference of means of multiple independent groups.

r should be significant and r2 should explain most of the variance of the dep. variable Parametric y (r y x )x (r y x )X Y Example: A study of the relationship .Pearson r Correlation Coefficient Test the significance of the relationship of two variables calculated on the same group Determine the function for predicting one variable given the other For prediction.

Repeated Measures ANOVA Parametric MANOVA An analysis of variance for two dependent variables Note that a separate ANOVA for each dep variable could be run and analyzed Example: The final exam score and the time of completion of programming assignment are dep variables in a comparison of two programming classes having different treatments .

Two Way ANOVA Parametric ANOVA with one dependent variable on multiple groups with multiple treatments Minimum of four groups: Group Characteristic A Group Characteristic B Treatment A Group 1 Group 3 Treatment B Group 2 Group 4 Example: The effects of two treatments and gender are studied for different final exam scores from treatments or gender. as well as interaction effects .

3 worse . 2 no change.Sign Test Nonparametric ≈ correlated t-test A test of simple changes (up or down) within group using ordinal data Example: Students are taught C# after being taught C++ then are asked to evaluate their abilities in problem solving using: 1 better.

. I will. 2. 3. I will. 4. If I can solve a problem on a computer. I will use a computer for problem solving.Wilcoxon Nonparametric ≈ sign test & correlated t-test changes within a group are tested using ranks based on magnitude of change Example: Students in computer literacy are asked to rank response to training as: 1. Sometimes I will use a computer for problem solving and some times not. I will rarely use a computer for problem solving.

Chi-Square Nonparametric ≈ independent t-test Test for significant differences of observed and expected frequencies Expected frequencies should be >= 10 Example: Is there a significant difference in user preference of IBM PC vs McIntosh? .

Mann-Whitney U Nonparametric ≈ independent t-test Test significant difference between independent groups using ordinal data Example: An instructor teaches both a graduate and an undergraduate computer science class. The Mann-Whitney U is applied to see if there is a significant . The students in each class evaluate the instructor’s teaching on a Likert scale.

The results are tested to see is there is a socioeconomic level that is significantly . each getting a different treatment using ordinal data Example: Three different socioeconomic groups within a class are asked to evaluate a new software tool using a Likert scale.Kruskal-Wallis Nonparametric ≈ one-way ANOVA A composite test of the difference of means of multiple independent groups.

Spearman rho Nonparametric ≈ Pearson r Correlation coef. for rank-order data Example: A study seeks to establish a relationship and possible prediction between a student’s rank in the current computer science graduating class and his/her starting salary after graduation .

Friedman Nonparametric ≈ repeated measures ANOVA Rpt. ANOVA for ordinal data Example: Students rank a software product on the Likert scale at the beginning. Meas. The study seeks to find if there is any significant change in the rankings due to experiences in the class . middle and end of the semester.

05 significance level is not achieved.05). then a researcher rejects the H0 and accepts the H1 If the the . then the H0 is retained .05 level is achieved (p is equal to or less than .Alternative and Null Hypotheses If the .

scientists help account for this error there are clear rules for how to calculate df for each statistical test .Degrees of Freedom Degrees of freedom (df) are the way in which the scientific tradition accounts for variation due to error it specifies how many values vary within a statistical test scientists recognize that collecting data can never be error-free each piece of data collected can vary. or carry error that we cannot account for by including df in statistical computations.

any difference found is due to sampling error • any significant difference found is not a TRUE difference. but CHANCE due to sampling error results stated in terms of probability that Ho is false • findings are stronger if can reject Ho • therefore.Inferential Statistics: 5 Steps To determine if SAMPLE means come from same population. State Hypothesis Ho: no difference between 2 means. need to specify Ho and H1 . use 5 steps with inferential statistics 1.

Level of Significance Probability that sample means are different enough to reject Ho (.05 or .Steps in Inferential Statistics 2.01) level of probability or level of confidence .

Computing Calculated Value Use statistical test to derive some calculated value (e.g. t value or F value) 4.05 or .01) is compared to the calculated value to determine if findings are significant and therefore reject Ho ..Steps in Inferential Statistics 3. Obtain Critical Value a criterion used based on df and alpha level (.

only supports H1.Steps in Inferential Statistics 5. it does not prove H1 . Reject or Fail to Reject Ho CALCULATED value is compared to the CRITICAL value to determine if the difference is significant enough to reject Ho at the predetermined level of significance If CRITICAL value > CALCULATED value --> fail to reject Ho If CRITICAL value < CALCULATED value --> reject Ho If reject Ho.

not population means. there is a possibility of making an error or wrong decision in rejecting or failing to reject Ho Type I error Type II error . it doesn’t mean they’re different for the reason you hypothesized may be other reason Since Ho testing is based on sample means.Testing Hypothesis If reject Ho and conclude groups are really different.

05. then there’s a 5% chance of Type I error Type II error -.rejecting Ho when it was true (it should have been accepted) equal to alpha if = .Testing Hypothesis Type I error -. you will decrease the chance of Type II error .accepting Ho when it should have been rejected If increase .

1 DV) Three or more variables t-test ANOVA ANOVA .Identifying the Appropriate Statistical Test of Difference One variable One-way chi-square Two variables (1 IV with 2 levels. 1 DV) Two variables (1 IV with 2+ levels.

Summary „ Descriptive stats summarize measures of central tendency and variability „ Inferential determine how likely it is that results based on sample are the same in population „ Must know level of measurement of variables to choose correct statistics .

t tests and ANOVA examples of parametric „ Pearson r measure relationship or Association between 2 variables T test determines if there is a significant difference between 2 group means „ ANOVA determines if there is a . Parametric and non-parametric two types of statistics requiring analysis of assumptions „ Pearson r.

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