URBS 609 PERT, Unit 2

PERT/CPM CALCULATIONS
Basic Techniques Using MS Excel And Manual Calculation

About This Training Module
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This Unit of Instruction was crafted by Robert Hugg For Minnesota State University, Mankato Urban and Regional Studies Institute - 2004

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Training Module Preview
• This module will provide:
– Introduction to manually calculating key Project Management functions (both PERT and CPM) – Introduction to using MS Excel to calculate key functions (PERT and Risk analysis) – Step-by step instruction on building a PERT risk analysis calculator using MS Excel – Use of PERT and CPM traditional techniques to manually lay out a project

• This module is constructed as the second block
in a building block approach
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PERT Calculations - Simplicity
• Simple steps in a logical order
– Step 1: Define tasks – Step 2: Place Tasks in a logical order, find the critical path

• The longest time path through the task network. The series of tasks
(or even a single task) that dictates the calculated finish date

– Step 3: Generate estimates

• Optimistic, pessimistic, likely and PERT- expected • Standard Deviation and variance

• Steps 1 and 2 are logic and legwork, not calculation –
these require a clear goal
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– Step 4: Determine earliest and latest dates – Step 5:Determine probability of meeting expected date

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PERT Calculations – Step 3
• Assuming steps 1 and 2 have been completed begin
calculations – use a table to organize your calculations • Simple calculations to estimate project durations • Based on input of 3 estimated durations per task
– Most Optimistic (TO) – best case scenario – Most Likely (TL) “normal” scenario – Most Pessimistic (TP) Worst case scenario

• Formula derives a probability-based expected duration (TE) • Complete this calculation for all tasks
– (TO x 1 + TL x 4 + TP x 1) / 6 = TE – Read this formula as the sum of (optimistic x 1 + likely x 4 + pessimistic x 1) divided by 6 = expected task duration

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PERT Calculations – Step 3
• Standard deviation and variance
– Standard deviation (SD) is the average deviation from the estimated time • SD=(TP-T0)/6 {read as (pessimistic-optimistic)/6} • As a general rule, the higher the standard
deviation the greater the amount of uncertainty

– Variance (V) reflects the spread of a value over a normal distribution • V=SD2 (Standard deviation squared)
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PERT Calculations – Step 3
• When doing manual PERT Calculations it is

helpful to construct a table to stay organized Consider the sample project in Unit 1 – planting trees and flowers, set up using a list – Rough estimates and no risk analysis • No Range, simply rough estimates - unreliable? – PERT Analysis will better refine estimates Start by setting up a table to organize data
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Our Project – A Refresher
TASK ID 1 Description Mark Utilities Dig Holes Buy Trees Buy Flowers Plant Trees Plant Flowers Buy Edging Install Edging Duration (Days)

Set up in tabular form, it might look like this…

2 3 4 5 6

7
Buy Edging

7 8

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

3
Buy Trees

1
Start Mark Utilities

2
Dig Holes

5
Plant Trees

6
Plant Flowers

8
Install Edging Finish

4
Buy Flowers

Set up in visual form it might look like this…
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PERT Step 3– First Get Organized
In considering all tasks on the previous slide, a table might look like this
TASK 1 2 5 6 8 TOTAL
TASK 3 4 7 TOTAL

TO

CRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration) TL TP TE

TO

TL

TP

OTHER PROJECT TASKS TE

TO-Optimistic

TM-Likely

TP-Pessimistic TE-Expected (Derived by PERT)

Remember – tasks 3, 4 and 7 are concurrent and do not add to the timeline
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PERT Step 3– Durations
After generating estimates using the formula, the table might look like this
TASK 1 2 5 6 8 TOTAL
TASK 3 4 7 TOTAL

TO 1 2 1 1 1 7
TO .5 .5 .5 1.5

CRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration) TL TP TE 3 5 3 4 7 4.17 3 6 3.17 3 5 3 2 4 2.17 15 28 15.6 OTHER PROJECT TASKS TL TP TE 1 3 1.25 1 3 1.25 1 3 1.25 3 9 3.75

SD .67 .83 .83 .67 .5 3.5
SD .42 .42 .42 1.26

V .44 .69 .69 .44 .25 2.51
V .17 .17 .17 .51

TO-Optimistic

TM-Likely

TP-Pessimistic TE-Expected (Derived by PERT) V=Variance
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SD=Standard Deviation

PERT Step 4 – Dates
For each task, determine the latest allowable time for moving to the next task The difference between latest time and expected time is called slack time

Tasks with zero slack time are on the critical path
TO 1 2 1 1 1 7 TO .5 .5 .5 1.5 TL 3 4 3 3 2 15 TL 1 1 1 3 CRITICAL PATH TASKS (Longest Duration) TP TE ES EF LS LF Slack 5 3 0 3 0 3 0 7 4.17 3 7.17 3 7.17 0 6 3.17 7 10.17 7 10.17 0 5 3 10 13 10 13 0 4 2.17 13 15.17 13 15.17 0 28 15.51 OTHER PROJECT TASKS TP TE ES EF LS LF FLOAT 3 1.25 0 1.25 3 4.25 3 3 1.25 0 1.25 3 4.25 3 3 1.25 1.25 2.50 4.25 5.50 3 9 3.75

TASK 1 2 5 6 8 TOTAL TASK 3 4 7 TOTAL

SD .67 .83 .83 .67 .5 3.5 SD .42 .42 .42 1.26

V .444 .694 .694 .444 .254 2.530 V .17 .17 .17 .51

ES=Earliest Start EF=

Earliest Finish

LS=Latest Start

LF=Latest Finish

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PERT Step 5 – Probabilities
Manually computing probability using data compiled in your table

• Determine probability of meeting a date by using the table data
– – – – Denote the sum of all expected durations on the critical path as S Denote the sum of all variances on the critical path as V Select a desired completion time, denote this as D COMPUTE: (D-S)/square root (V) = Z ( the number of std. deviations that the due date is away from the expected date))

• Enter a standard normal table to find a probability that corresponds
with Z or go online to:

• For our project, figure a probability based on the most likely time, 15
days: (15-15.51)/square root(2.53) = (15-15.51)/1.59=-.3207 (Z) • A corresponding probability is 37.7% (Rounded) • This process can be repeated for any date desired
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http://math.uc.edu/statistics/statbook/tables.html) to enter a z number the application will retrieve the probability from the lengthy table

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PERT Step 5 – Probabilities
Computing probability in Excel using data compiled in your table

• Excel has normal distribution functions built
in and can compute PERT probabilities • By creating a table as a spreadsheet, the addition of a few simple formulae will do the rest of the work • Create a table as a template that can be used over and over again – simply change the input
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PERT Step 5 – Probabilities
Computing probability in Excel using data compiled in your table

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 1 - Create a spreadsheet that resembles the table used earlier

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 2 – Use formulae as shown to calculate PERT Expectations

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formulae used for PERT Analysis- expected durations

• Computing PERT Expected duration
– For each task cell: (Optimistic + 4x Typical + Pessimistic)/6 – Adjust cell address for each task

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 3 – Use formulae as shown to calculate variances

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formulae used for PERT Analysis – Variances

• Computing Variances
– For each task cell: • ((Pessimistic-Optimistic)/6)2 – Adjust cell address for each task

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 4 – Use formulae as shown to calculate STD. Deviations

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formulae used for PERT Analysis – Standard Deviations

• Computing Standard Deviations
– For each task cell: • Square root of the variance for that task – Adjust cell address for each task

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 5 – Use formula as shown to sum PERT expectations

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formula used for PERT Analysis – Summing PERT Expectations

• Sum Pert Expectations using either autosum feature or sum formula

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 6 – Use formula as shown to sum variances

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formula used for PERT Analysis – Summing Variances

• Sum Variances using either auto-sum
feature or sum formula

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Step 6 – Use formula as shown to compute probability

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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formula used for PERT Analysis – Completion Probability

• Excel uses a formula designed to compute the

probability of placement of a combination of elements in a normal distribution – very accurate • NORMDIST(x,mean,standard_dev,cumulative)
– X is the value for which you want the distribution (desired date) – Mean is the arithmetic mean of the distribution (summed PERT expected durations) – Standard_dev is the standard deviation of the distribution (square root of the summed variances) – Cumulative is a logical value that determines the form of the function. If cumulative is TRUE, NORMDIST returns the cumulative distribution function (probability of completion on the date entered)
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Constructing the Spreadsheet
Cell Formula used for PERT Analysis – Hints and Tips

• Be sure to adjust formulae as necessary when
adding additional tasks

• This set of formulae mirrors the manual
• •

– If a error message shows up check cell addresses in the formulae first – formulae must reflect intent

calculations but takes less time for the user Because PERT is a probabilistic approach, these formulae can deliver a 100% probability – but no plan is perfect – these are always estimates Never feel there is a 100% probability of a project completing on the estimated date
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PERT Analysis
Thoughts, Philosophy and Lessons Learned

• All Plans are estimates and are only as good as the task
• •

estimates – unrealistic estimates equal unrealistic plans If the scope of a plan changes, all estimates must change – adding tasks equals added time and cost PERT Analysis is a good way to “what if” before a project is launched – helps determine if it is needed at all
– – – – – What tasks will it take to do the project? What is the optimum order of the project tasks? How long will it take to do the project? How likely is the project to succeed? What if “The Boss” wants it earlier, what is the likelihood then?

• A great way to get organized and stay organized
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CPM Analysis
• In comparison to PERT, CPM analysis is simple • CPM Analysis is a series of easy steps

• Repeat steps 4 & 5 until all the paths have been

1. Develop time and cost data ("normal" and "crashed") for all tasks 2. Develop cost-per-week for crashing (crashed costs divided by time saved) 3. Develop project network (PERT) 4. Crash the activity on the critical path with the lowest cost-forcrashing 5. Recalculate the project network (the critical path might change!)

crashed. Ease up on all non-critical paths, just to the point that all paths are critical.
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CPM Analysis
• A typical CPM table might have the
following structure:
Begin End Time (Crashed) Time (Normal) Activity Cost (Crashed) Cost (Normal) Time Saved Cost Increase Cost / Week

Foundation Frame

1 2

2 3

1 1

2 4

4000 8000

3000 4000

1 3

1000 4000

1000 1333

cost-per-week for crashing = crashed costs divided by time saved
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CPM Analysis
Thoughts, Philosophy and Lessons Learned

• All Plans are estimates and are only as good as the task

estimates – unrealistic estimates equal unrealistic plans If the scope of a plan changes, all estimates must change – adding tasks equals added time and cost CPM Analysis is a good way to “what if” before a project is launched – helps control expectations
– – – – How How How How much will it cost? long will it take? long will it take if it needs to be done sooner? much will it cost if it needs to be done sooner?

• A great way to get organized and stay organized
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Use PERT and CPM Together
• PERT & CPM are totally complementary both require the same preparation:
1. Define the Project and all of its significant activities or tasks. The Project should have only a single start activity and a single finish activity. 2. Develop the relationships among the activities; decide which activities must precede and which must follow others. 3. Draw a Network Diagram connecting all the activities (each activity should have a unique number). 4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity. 5. Compute the longest time path through the network. (The critical path) 6. Use the Network to help plan, schedule, monitor & control the project.
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PM Calculations Overview
• PERT and CPM can be used together • Calculations are based on a few simple
formulae:
– – – – – PERT Derived duration estimates Standard Deviation Variance Probability of meeting expectation Crash costs and time & normal costs and time

• Calculations can be done manually or using
Excel – same formulae, different tools
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Resources Used in This Unit
• Bonini, Charles, et al, Quantitative • •
Analysis for Management, Columbus: McGraw Hill, 1997 Dr. Anthony Filipovitch Goldratt, Eli, Dr., The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement, Great Barrington: New River Press, 1996 Mednick, Barry, PERT-CPM on Excel,Fullerton: Cal State, 2000 MS Project, by Microsoft Corporation MS Excel, by Microsoft Corporation PM Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), Philadelphia: PMI, 2000

• Project Management Institute (PMI)
Resource Center

• ProjeX, by WAA, Inc • Systema, Sid, Probabilistic Solutions to • • •

Project Management Institute Website


• • •

Project Scheduling, Ferris State, 1999 US National Performance Survey, The Standish Group, 1998 Verma, Vijay K., Managing the Project Team: The Human Aspects of Project Management, Philadelphia: PMI, 1997 Wiest, Jerome D., and Levy, Ferdinand K., A Management Guide to PERT/CPM, New Delhi: Prentice-Hall of India Private Limited, 1974

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You have completed
URBS 609 PERT Unit 2 Please proceed to URBS 609 Project Management Using MS Project Block
This Unit of Instruction was crafted by Robert Hugg For Minnesota State University, Mankato Urban and Regional Studies Institute - 2004

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